Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The e-commerce business is experiencing revenue and profit recovery driven by GMV growth and an increase in take rate, indicating a stable fundamental value for the company. The cloud business is accelerating growth due to AI, and other new business operations are showing upward trends, gradually realizing loss reduction expectations. Overall, the company has a solid fundamental base with upward potential, making it a meaningful investment at the current valuation level [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 941.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 79.74 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 10% [7]. - For FY2025, revenue is forecasted at 995.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, and net profit is expected to rise to 129.47 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 62.4% [7]. - Projections for FY2026 to FY2028 indicate revenues of 1,084.21 billion yuan, 1,176.79 billion yuan, and 1,268.93 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 142.48 billion yuan, 165.45 billion yuan, and 186.41 billion yuan, showing consistent growth rates [6][7]. Segment Performance - The core segment performance for Q4 FY25 met expectations, with Taotian Group's customer management revenue growing by 11.8% and EBITA increasing by 8.4% year-on-year. The platform's take rate has improved, contributing to accelerated performance growth [6]. - The Intelligent Cloud Group reported a revenue growth of 17.7%, entering an accelerated growth phase driven by AI, although EBITA margin decreased slightly [6]. - The International Retail Business continued its high growth trend with a revenue increase of 22.3%, and improvements in EBITA margin were noted [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a forecasted P/E ratio of 27.2 for FY2024, decreasing to 11.6 by FY2028, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [7]. - The projected P/B ratio is expected to decline from 2.2 in FY2024 to 1.4 in FY2028, reflecting a more attractive valuation over time [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (9988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The core business shows steady growth, with a strong ongoing demand for AI [1] - The company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan for FY2025Q4, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7% [9] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 41.8 billion yuan, up 36% year-over-year [9] - The net profit surged to 12 billion yuan, marking a significant year-over-year increase of 1203% [9] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025Q4, Alibaba achieved: - Revenue: 236.5 billion yuan (YoY +7%, QoQ -16%) [9] - Operating profit: 28.5 billion yuan (YoY +93%, QoQ -31%) [9] - Adjusted EBITDA: 41.8 billion yuan (YoY +36%, QoQ -33%) [9] - Net profit: 12 billion yuan (YoY +1203%, QoQ -74%) [9] - Non-GAAP net profit: 29.8 billion yuan (YoY +22%, QoQ -42%) [9] Business Segment Performance - Taobao Group: - Revenue reached 101.4 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 9% [11] - Customer Management Revenue (CMR) increased by 12% [11] - Adjusted EBITA was 41.7 billion yuan, with an EBITA margin of 41% [11] - International Digital Commerce Group: - Revenue grew by 22% to 33.6 billion yuan, driven by strong cross-border business performance [13] - Cloud Intelligence Group: - Revenue increased by 18% to 30.1 billion yuan, with AI-related revenue showing triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [39] Future Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for FY2026-2028 are as follows: - FY2026: 1,087.3 billion yuan - FY2027: 1,193.2 billion yuan - FY2028: 1,312.5 billion yuan [44] - Projected net profits for the same period are: - FY2026: 144.5 billion yuan - FY2027: 169.3 billion yuan - FY2028: 192.8 billion yuan [44] Valuation and Target Price - The report estimates a target market value of 2,958.2 billion yuan for FY2026, corresponding to a target price of 155 yuan per share [44]

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 社会服务 2024 年价格端有所提升，分业态有所分化。2024 年 CPI 整体有所恢复，利好零 售同店端，但客流受线上化影响仍有分化。2024 年累计分零售业态增长：专业店 （yoy+4.2%）、专卖店（yoy-0.4%）、超市（yoy+2.7%）、百货（yoy-2.4%）、便利 店（+4.7%）。其中超市受益调改+供应链变革提升前端客流吸引力，百货受到空 置率等因素影响仍有下滑。 社会服务 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 17 日 分化加剧，寻求需求侧景气度或供给侧的成本费用改善 ——社服行业 2024 年年报&2025Q1 业绩综述 投资要点 2024 年旅游高增长，25Q1 景气延续。根据文旅部数据，2024 年全年旅游收入增 长 17%，旅游人次增长 15%，客单价超越 19 年。2025 年春节国内旅游收入增长 7%，旅游人次增长 6%。低线城市、县域和农村居民的需求升级推动了旅游市场 下沉增量。银发游崛起，2024 年，45 岁以上的中老年旅游者合计出游 11.94 亿人 次，占据国内旅游客源市场的 36.81%。 OTA 充分享受大盘增长，格局稳固。下游供给加 ...

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. and China have agreed to reduce tariffs significantly, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods dropping from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods decreasing from 125% to 10% [4][5][6] - The tariff adjustments exceed market expectations, indicating a potential shift in trade dynamics and a more cooperative stance between the two nations [4][6][7] - Future negotiations will likely focus on core issues such as market access barriers, intellectual property protection, and service trade barriers [6][7] Group 2: JD Group Performance - JD Group reported Q1 2025 revenue of 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with net profit reaching 11.3 billion yuan, up 53% year-on-year [9][10] - The company’s retail segment saw a 16% revenue growth, driven by strong performance in electronics and daily necessities, supported by government subsidy policies [12][10] - JD's logistics revenue grew by 11% year-on-year, with significant contributions from external clients, indicating a robust logistics operation [13] Group 3: Ma Yinglong's Market Position - Ma Yinglong holds a dominant position in the hemorrhoid treatment market, with a market share of 50% and a stable customer base due to high recurrence rates of hemorrhoid conditions [18][19] - The company is expanding into health products like eye cream and wet wipes, with the latter showing strong market growth potential [19][21] - Revenue projections for Ma Yinglong are set at 4.346 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit forecast of 624 million yuan, reflecting its strong market presence and growth strategy [21] Group 4: Wanda Film's Strategic Moves - Wanda Film is investing in 52TOYS, a leading toy company, to enhance its IP derivative business, with a total investment of approximately 1.44 billion yuan [22][24] - The collaboration aims to leverage 52TOYS' diverse product lines and IP partnerships to boost non-ticket revenue streams [24] - Wanda Film's revenue forecast for 2025 is 16.33 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.204 billion yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the film and entertainment sector [25] Group 5: Softcom's Technological Advancements - Softcom is focusing on building two manufacturing bases and a computing center to enhance its capabilities in the IT service sector, with total investments projected at 33.78 billion yuan [34][35] - The company is expanding its AI and robotics initiatives, aiming to develop a comprehensive range of AI products and services [39][40] - Revenue forecasts for Softcom are set at 35.684 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 392 million yuan, reflecting its growth potential in the tech industry [40]

Group 1: Market Overview - The joint statement from China and the US on May 12 indicated a larger-than-expected reduction in tariffs, leading to a significant rise in Hong Kong stocks, with the Hang Seng Index increasing over 3% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 5% [1] - Hong Kong's strategic position as a battleground for both Chinese and foreign capital is becoming increasingly complex amid escalating international tensions [1] - The quality Chinese listed companies in Hong Kong are closely tied to the fundamentals of Chinese assets, while the valuation is influenced by US dollar liquidity, making the market dynamics more unpredictable [1] Group 2: Consumer Sector - The "Hong Kong Three Sisters" represent the consumer sector, where Generation Z prioritizes emotional value over practical functionality in their purchasing decisions [2] - This demographic seeks products that resonate emotionally, leading to a shift in the market towards brands that foster emotional connections rather than mere transactions [2] - A notable example includes a trendy toy brand that leverages surprise elements in its blind box products to enhance consumer engagement and emotional resonance [2] Group 3: Technology Sector - The technology sector in Hong Kong is seen as a testing ground for Chinese tech giants, poised to benefit from domestic innovation and a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - An internet e-commerce giant is initiating a technological revolution aimed at becoming a key "infrastructure provider" in the AI era, emphasizing the growing importance of cloud computing [3] - Another tech company is building a smart hardware ecosystem, integrating AI into various aspects of life, thus completing a "full ecosystem" strategy that enhances user experience [3] Group 4: Long-term Trends - The Hong Kong tech sector is home to core Chinese technology assets, often referred to as the "Eastern Silicon Valley," with a long-term positive outlook despite recent short-term adjustments [4] - The trend of domestic substitution and self-control is gaining traction, with AI being a key focus in national strategic planning [4] - The combination of policy support and rapid technological advancements in AI and robotics suggests significant growth potential for the sector in the future [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][20]. Core Views - The company's overall performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, driven by a focus on user experience and content ecosystem development, along with government subsidy policies and steady growth in supermarket categories [6][10]. - The adjusted net profit significantly surpassed Bloomberg consensus estimates, primarily due to better-than-expected gross margin and operating profit margin [6][10]. - The company is focusing on long-term investment returns from new businesses like food delivery, with a current daily order volume approaching 20 million [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 16% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 13% [6][10]. - Gross profit was 47.8 billion yuan, up 20% year-over-year and down 10% quarter-over-quarter [6][10]. - Operating profit stood at 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 37% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase [6][10]. - Net profit was 11.3 billion yuan, a 53% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase [6][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached 12.8 billion yuan, up 43% year-over-year and 13% quarter-over-quarter [6][10]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 1,286.6 billion yuan, 1,371.3 billion yuan, and 1,449.6 billion yuan respectively [9][17]. - The forecast for net profit has been adjusted downwards to 34 billion yuan, 45.4 billion yuan, and 52.6 billion yuan for the same period [9][17]. - The target market capitalization for the company is set at 592.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 186 yuan per share [9][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD [1][10][22] Core Insights - JD's revenue for FY1Q25 reached RMB 301.1 billion, marking a 15.8% year-on-year increase, the highest quarterly growth in three years [4][10] - Non-GAAP net profit for the same period was RMB 12.8 billion, reflecting a 43.4% year-on-year growth, exceeding expectations [4][10] - The company is expected to increase its investment in the food delivery business starting from FY2Q25, which is anticipated to drive further growth [10] Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - Projected revenues (in RMB million) are as follows: - 2023: 1,084,662 - 2024: 1,158,819 - 2025E: 1,309,433 - 2026E: 1,405,187 - 2027E: 1,493,471 - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 3.7% for 2023, 6.8% for 2024, 13.0% for 2025, 7.3% for 2026, and 6.3% for 2027 [2][13] - Non-GAAP net profit projections are: - 2025E: 47,603 million - 2026E: 52,024 million - 2027E: 56,176 million [2][13] - The operating margin for JD Retail increased to 4.9%, while the gross margin reached 15.9% [6][8] Market Data - As of May 14, 2025, JD's closing price was USD 37.25, with a market capitalization of USD 59.4 billion [3] - The stock has a 52-week high of USD 46.45 and a low of USD 23.44 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a collective rise on May 14, with major indices showing positive performance, indicating a recovery trend in the market [1]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3403.95 points, up 0.86% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10354.22 points, up 0.64% - The ChiNext Index closed at 2083.14 points, up 1.01% [1]. Sector Performance - The financial sector saw significant gains, particularly in insurance and brokerage stocks - Shipping and chemical sectors also performed well, while military and photovoltaic sectors experienced pullbacks [2][3]. Sector Gains - Insurance: +6.92% with a net inflow of 19.17 billion - Shipping: +4.78% with a net inflow of 11.47 billion - Logistics: +4.75% with a net inflow of 13.53 billion - Securities: +3.37% with a net inflow of 59.50 billion [4]. Sector Losses - Photovoltaic Equipment: -1.61% with a net outflow of 11.81 billion - Military Electronics: -1.29% with a net outflow of 6.46 billion [4]. Institutional Insights - Major funds saw net inflows in transportation, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, while experiencing outflows in power equipment, social services, and textiles [5][6]. - Specific stocks like Dongfang Wealth, China Ping An, and Kweichow Moutai saw net inflows of 1.943 billion, 0.947 billion, and 0.765 billion respectively [5]. Market Outlook - Oriental Securities noted that with overseas risks stabilizing and no upward pressure on U.S. inflation, the market is returning to a phase of global fiscal expansion and economic recovery [7]. - Galaxy Securities suggested that the index will maintain a horizontal oscillation trend, while small-cap stocks may face a correction [8]. - Tianfeng Securities recommended focusing on investment opportunities in "AI + overseas + satellites" as core targets for the medium to long term [8].

A股开盘，沪指开跌0.02%，深证成指开跌0.09%，创业板指平开，互联网电商板块领跌，光伏概念股回 调。 ...

2025.05. 12 本文字数：527，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 第一财经 截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.37%，深成指涨1.06%，创业板指涨1.72%。 盘面上看，军工板块集体走强，中船系、成飞系方向领涨；机器人、低空经济、消费电子、固态电池 板块涨幅居前，互联网电商板块活跃，ST板块延续涨势；贵金属、农业、创新药、电力板块跌幅居 前。 个股涨多跌少，全市场超3400只个股上涨。 机构观点 国泰海通资深市场分析师袁强认为，近期市场流动性出现新的变化：高风险偏好资金延续回流A股的 趋势，并且在节后持续增配科技行业，其中ETF与两融资金均增持电子与计算机。对A股投资者来 说，短期可考虑以红利资产为底仓，由于多数景气方向近期市场都有一定反应，需要以较高标准进行 精选，适度参与新主题，看好以机器人、军工、AI为代表的科技方向。 深圳前海融悦资产管理有限公司基金经理王章亮认为，指数在上周维持窄幅震荡，酝酿突破，周末消 息面偏暖，地缘关系缓和，整体市场的风险偏好得以显著提升。今早A股承接此前的上涨惯性，高开 震荡走高。沪指站稳年线，同时均线系统多头排列，短期趋势仍维持偏多。具体板块方面，中国制造 业全产业链优势有望进 ...