Core Insights - The Chinese food delivery industry experienced a historic surge in orders, with Meituan surpassing 120 million orders in a single day, driven by a subsidy war between Meituan and Alibaba [1][2] - The competition is characterized by significant promotional activities, including large discount coupons, which have stimulated consumer demand and led to temporary service disruptions on Meituan's platform [1][2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the ongoing price war will reshape the industry landscape, with substantial investments expected to continue until at least September 2025, ultimately benefiting the market in the long term [3] Company Developments - Meituan reported over 100 million food delivery orders on July 5, accounting for more than 80% of total orders, indicating a strong market presence [1] - Alibaba's Taobao Shanguo launched a 500 billion yuan subsidy plan aimed at boosting consumer and merchant engagement, resulting in significant order volume increases for restaurants and small businesses [2] - JD.com has also seen growth in its food delivery service, with daily orders exceeding 25 million since its launch, covering 350 cities and over 1.5 million restaurants [2] Market Trends - The competition among Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com is expected to evolve, with potential scenarios ranging from Meituan maintaining its leadership to a duopoly or fragmented market [2][3] - The current price war aims to capture user traffic through frequent delivery services, which may enhance profitability in e-commerce and travel sectors in the medium term [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates that the food delivery market could reach 2.4 trillion yuan and the instant retail market could reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by improved supply chains and new business models [3]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's current "Cloud + AI" strategy focuses on becoming a "water seller," providing computing power and AI resources to other clients, which allows it to avoid addressing specific AI commercialization issues [1][16]. Financial Performance - In May 2025, Alibaba reported a revenue of 996.347 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a net profit of 125.976 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year surge of 77%, marking a historical high [2]. - The CFO highlighted significant progress in enhancing the competitiveness of e-commerce and cloud businesses, with Taobao and Tmall achieving steady growth [2]. E-commerce Strategy - Alibaba's e-commerce sector faced pressure due to the decline of mobile internet traffic and competition from Pinduoduo, leading to concerns about its business moat [2]. - The company has shifted focus back to users, moving away from extreme price competition, and is now emphasizing quality and operational efficiency [6][4]. - The Taobao platform's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 reached 449.827 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [6]. AI and Cloud Strategy - Alibaba is investing heavily in AI, with plans to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years [15]. - The cloud computing segment generated revenue of 118.028 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, driven by soaring AI demand [13]. - The company has released over 200 open-source models, with global downloads exceeding 300 million, establishing a significant presence in the AI space [13]. Instant Retail Development - The instant retail market in China is rapidly growing, with a market size of 650 billion yuan in 2023, showing a year-on-year growth of 28.89% [11]. - Alibaba has integrated Ele.me into its e-commerce division to capitalize on the instant retail trend, launching "Taobao Flash Purchase" to leverage its vast user base [12][8]. - The daily order volume for Taobao Flash Purchase exceeded 6 million, indicating strong market penetration [12]. Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the promising financial results, Alibaba faces challenges in achieving profitability in its local lifestyle business, which reported an adjusted EBITA loss of 3.689 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025 [12]. - The company needs to effectively integrate its new business models with its existing e-commerce operations to create synergies and enhance overall value [16].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's Taobao Flash Purchase has launched a 500 billion yuan subsidy plan to stimulate consumer spending and support merchants in the instant retail market [2][3] Group 1: Subsidy Strategy - Taobao Flash Purchase will implement a "direct subsidy" plan over the next 12 months, with a total subsidy scale of 500 billion yuan [2] - The platform aims to enhance consumer engagement by offering large red envelopes, free order cards, and official subsidized products [2] - Merchants will receive various subsidies, including store, product, and delivery subsidies, to ensure profit margins and promote business growth [2] Group 2: Market Performance - Taobao Flash Purchase has achieved a daily order volume exceeding 60 million, with a punctuality rate of 96% [3] - Retail orders have seen a year-on-year growth of 179%, with some brands experiencing over 10 times growth in order volume [3] - The initial day of the subsidy saw 589 retail brands doubling their daily order volume compared to the launch date [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The instant retail market is characterized by intense competition, with platforms like Meituan, Ele.me, and JD.com also engaging in aggressive subsidy strategies [2][6] - Meituan's daily order volume exceeds 90 million, while JD.com has surpassed 25 million [6] - The competition has led to increased pressure on merchants, who are compelled to participate in subsidy schemes [5] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The effectiveness of Taobao Flash Purchase's subsidy strategy will be evaluated based on merchant retention rates, user repurchase rates, and market share changes [3][7] - The strategy is seen as a defensive measure against low-price competition, aiming to reduce operational costs for merchants [6] - Future success will depend on converting subsidy advantages into enhanced digital operational capabilities for merchants [7]

Core Insights - The explosive growth of instant retail is evident, with JD.com handling an average of 25 million orders daily and Meituan's flash purchase orders increasing over 60% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [1] - The gap between daily order volumes in instant retail and e-commerce logistics is narrowing, indicating a structural transformation in the supporting logistics system [1] Group 1: Logistics Models - Instant retail mirrors the e-commerce era with two logistics models: platform self-operated and third-party delivery, with the latter gaining prominence due to its efficiency and resource utilization [1][2] - Third-party delivery services are increasingly being utilized by platforms like Meituan and Ele.me to alleviate the cost pressures associated with self-operated logistics [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Merchants are diversifying their platform presence to reduce dependency on single platforms, leading to a demand for third-party delivery services that can facilitate multi-platform operations [3] - The competitive landscape among platforms is driving the need for cost reduction and efficiency, positioning third-party delivery as a core infrastructure in the instant retail ecosystem [3] Group 3: Profitability and Business Models - SF Express has successfully implemented a full-scenario delivery model, achieving profitability and establishing a competitive edge through efficient resource allocation and collaboration with various platforms [4] - The increasing demand for cross-platform traffic integration and high fulfillment costs are expected to enhance the scale economy of third-party delivery services [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The third-party delivery network enables brands to reach a broader consumer base while optimizing fulfillment costs and improving service quality, creating a win-win situation for all parties involved [5] - The instant retail market is projected to reach 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with third-party delivery potentially sharing the market with e-commerce logistics, indicating a promising future for this sector [5]

Group 1 - Meituan announced plans to establish 1,200 "Raccoon Canteens" over three years, focusing on quality dining and addressing the pain points of ghost kitchens [1] - Taobao followed suit by announcing a direct subsidy of 50 billion yuan to consumers and merchants through Taobao Flash Purchase within 12 months [3] - The competition in the food delivery sector has intensified, with major players like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba vying for dominance in the instant retail market [3][25] Group 2 - The recent actions of major companies indicate a strategic intent to create a super app that encompasses various services, including dining, shopping, and travel [11][12] - The food delivery market is characterized by high frequency and low profit margins, making it a critical entry point for user engagement [7][8] - JD's entry into the food delivery market aims to drive traffic to its main app, with 40% of food delivery users also purchasing products from JD's e-commerce platform [8] Group 3 - The integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into Alibaba's e-commerce group reflects a strategic restructuring to enhance the capabilities of Taobao and create a super app [14][16] - The competition for user retention and growth is becoming increasingly challenging as the market shifts towards super apps that consolidate multiple services [19][23] - Instant retail is identified as a key battleground for major e-commerce platforms, with the market expected to grow significantly in the coming years [28][29] Group 4 - The ongoing subsidy wars have led to a temporary surge in user engagement, but concerns remain about the sustainability of such growth without profitability [24] - New players like Duoduo and Douyin are also entering the instant retail space, indicating that the competition is far from over [30][33] - The evolution of the retail landscape has seen three major transformations, with instant retail being the latest and most critical phase [26][28]

Summary of Meituan Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Meituan - **Date**: July 2, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Meituan's core takeaway business shows stable growth of 9%-10%, indicating mature operations and improved profitability in the takeaway market, which is a positive signal for stock trading [2] - The instant retail market is experiencing rapid growth, with Meituan's order volume expected to increase by 35%. Supermarkets and front warehouses are outpacing overall e-commerce growth, driven by large categories like fresh produce and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) [2] - Digitalization is enhancing growth through channel penetration and product-driven strategies, with examples like Xiaoxiang Supermarket creating new supply through its supply chain [6] Competitive Landscape - In 2025, Meituan holds over 70% market share in the takeaway sector, but competition has intensified since JD.com entered the market with new riders. Despite this, Meituan's core business continues to grow at a stable rate of 9%-10% [3] - JD.com's subsidy strategy has significantly increased its daily active users (DAU) by 15%, while Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale achieved a peak of 60 million orders, indicating strong competition in the instant retail space [7] Growth Projections - The instant retail market is projected to grow at an annual rate of 20%, potentially reaching 50% growth in 2026-2027. Meituan's flash purchase gross merchandise volume (GMV) is expected to reach 500 billion by 2027, increasing its market share in e-commerce to 12% [4][10] - Meituan's competitive advantages include a strong logistics system and a user base that overlaps with instant retail consumers, which enhances its long-term investment value [11] Digitalization Impact - Digitalization is significantly driving industry growth, with a focus on supply chain capabilities and the development of private labels, such as Dingdong Maicai's private label accounting for 20% of sales [6] Competitive Advantages and Challenges - Alibaba faces challenges in local SKU expansion due to cost-effectiveness issues, particularly with low-ticket items that struggle to achieve profitability [12] - The competitive landscape among e-commerce platforms shows that while Taobao's market share is stabilizing, Pinduoduo and Douyin are growing faster than the market average [13] Future Outlook - The next two years are expected to see continued rapid growth in the instant retail market, with Meituan maintaining its leadership position. However, short-term profits may decline due to increased expenses, but the long-term investment outlook for Meituan remains positive [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and transformation of the instant retail market in China, driven by advancements in logistics, technology, and changing consumer demands, with a projected market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and potential growth to 2-3.6 trillion yuan by 2030 [7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Instant retail encompasses a wide range of products, from fresh produce to electronics, emphasizing the convenience of home delivery [4][3]. - Major players like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com are heavily investing in market share, with aggressive promotional strategies and significant subsidies [5]. - The competition is reshaping the consumer market, focusing on efficiency in delivery and logistics [8]. Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The "15-minute convenient living circle" initiative aims to meet daily needs within a short walking distance, with over 4,321 such circles established, covering approximately 107 million residents [12][13]. - Local governments are implementing cold chain logistics policies to enhance the supply chain for perishable goods, with subsidies for cold storage and transportation [14]. - By 2025, policies will ensure logistics centers in every county and express delivery stations in villages, increasing rural market accessibility [15]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The integration of technologies like drones, autonomous driving, and AI scheduling is expected to lower supply chain and delivery costs, enhancing overall efficiency [18]. - Post-pandemic consumer behavior shows a heightened willingness to pay for immediate delivery, particularly among younger demographics [19]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competition is primarily among three giants: Meituan, Alibaba (Ele.me), and JD.com, each leveraging their logistics capabilities to gain an edge [29]. - Meituan focuses on local life services with a vast network of over 6 million delivery personnel, while JD.com emphasizes quality and reliability through its self-built logistics [30][31]. - Alibaba combines its extensive user base with a robust delivery network, but faces challenges in operational efficiency and market penetration in rural areas [33]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the future of instant retail will be defined by the ability to deliver products quickly and efficiently, particularly in lower-tier markets [34]. - Meituan's "Lightning Warehouse" model aims for rapid urban coverage, while JD.com's "Shared Warehouse" focuses on quality and cost efficiency [36]. - Long-term success will depend on the integration of AI and other technologies, creating significant barriers to entry for new competitors [38].

Core Viewpoint - The recent shutdown of Meituan Youxuan and the exit of major internet companies from the "community group buying" sector highlight the challenges and declining viability of this business model, particularly in the context of changing consumer behavior and regulatory pressures [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Community group buying, characterized by local leaders organizing purchases for neighbors, saw rapid growth during the pandemic but has faced significant challenges, including high management difficulty for fresh produce and low loyalty among group leaders [1][4]. - Meituan Youxuan peaked with coverage in over 2,000 counties, primarily in lower-tier cities, but its core user base remains in higher-tier cities, leading to a mismatch in target demographics [2][4]. - The shift in consumer preference towards immediate delivery services, such as Meituan's instant retail, has further diminished the appeal of community group buying, which relies on next-day delivery and self-pickup [6][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Meituan Youxuan has accumulated losses exceeding 55 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with high operational costs and low gross margins making it difficult to compete with local rivals [6]. - The customer acquisition cost for Meituan Youxuan was approximately 150 yuan per person in 2020, significantly higher than the 5-7 yuan for its competitor, Duoduo Maicai, indicating inefficiencies in its business model [4][5]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Following the decision to shut down Meituan Youxuan, the company is redirecting its focus towards its supermarket business, Xiaoxiang Supermarket, and its restaurant supply chain platform, Meituan Kuilv [8]. - The transition involves reallocating resources and personnel from Meituan Youxuan to support the growth of Xiaoxiang Supermarket, which is set to open new offline community stores in cities with proven consumer purchasing power [8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the competitive landscape of the food delivery industry in China, highlighting the strategies employed by delivery riders to maximize their earnings during promotional events [1][3][16] - It emphasizes the rise of instant retail as a new battleground among major platforms like Meituan, JD.com, and Alibaba, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards convenience and rapid delivery [16][18] Group 1: Delivery Rider Strategies - Delivery riders are engaging in tactics such as placing orders themselves and then fulfilling them to earn rewards, particularly during promotional activities [3][9] - The "multi-order" strategy, where riders pick up multiple orders at once, is becoming increasingly popular due to higher delivery fees compared to the cost of the items [4][6] - Riders are leveraging promotional events that offer significant rewards for completing a high volume of deliveries, with some incentives reaching up to 720 yuan for completing 288 orders [9][13] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The entry of JD.com into the food delivery market has intensified competition, leading to aggressive promotional strategies from all major players [6][17] - Instant retail is emerging as a critical component of the business model for these platforms, with significant investments being made to enhance delivery capabilities and expand product offerings [16][18] - The market for instant retail in China is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it could exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030, indicating a lucrative opportunity for companies involved [17][18] Group 3: Market Performance - Recent data shows that Meituan's flash purchase segment achieved record transaction volumes, while JD.com reported over 25 million daily orders during the 618 shopping festival [3][6] - The competition among platforms is not only about food delivery but also extends to broader e-commerce strategies, as companies seek to integrate their services into a super app model [16][18] - The instant retail market in China reached 650 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 28.89% year-on-year growth, outpacing traditional online retail growth [17]

履约形态适配中国土壤，即时零售潜力或超预期 ——即时零售行业研究 评级： 增持（首次） 执业证书编号：S0740523110001 Email：suchang@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 59 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 5,581.43 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 5,247.73 | 一般零售 证券研究报告/行业深度报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：苏畅 报告摘要 核心观点：受制于较高履约成本，即时零售在发源地美国现仍是小众市场。但在中国， 在强烈的便捷需求，与显著成本结构优势共振下，即时零售较大概率成为一种主流的 零售模式。美团在履约体系与用户心智上具有较为显著优势，即时零售业务的发展有 望为其提高估值潜力。 分析师：郑澄怀 各国零售行业演进的理念是一致的，但最优履约形态受到人口、城市形态等因素影响。 基于对零售行业国别对比研究，我们发现优秀的零售企业均有着一致的理念：为消费 者降低交易成本。但具体的履约形态，在 ...