Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have significantly increased their holdings in China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the company [1]. Group 1: Shareholding Changes - On October 31, southbound funds increased their holdings by 14.51 million shares, bringing the total to 9.951 billion shares, which represents a 0.15% increase [2]. - Over the past five trading days, there have been increases in holdings for five days, with a total net increase of 19.7 million shares [1]. - In the last 20 trading days, there were increases on 19 days, resulting in a cumulative net increase of 36.6 million shares [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - CNOOC is primarily engaged in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas, operating through three main departments: Exploration and Production (E&P), Trading, and Business Services [2]. - The E&P department focuses on conventional oil and gas, shale oil and gas, oil sands, and other unconventional oil and gas operations [2]. - The Trading department is involved in the import and export of crude oil and natural gas, while the Business Services department handles technology research and development, asset management, and product sales [2].

Core Insights - Southbound funds increased their holdings in China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857.HK) by 1.374 million shares on October 31, 2025, marking a total net increase of 69.826 million shares over the past five trading days [1] - Over the last 20 trading days, southbound funds have net increased their holdings by 254 million shares, with 16 days of net buying activity [1] - As of now, southbound funds hold a total of 7.113 billion shares of China Petroleum, representing 33.7% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Trading Data Summary - On October 31, 2025, total shares held were 7.113 billion, with a change of 1.374 million shares, reflecting a change of 0.02% [2] - On October 30, 2025, total shares held were 7.112 billion, with a change of 4.344 million shares, reflecting a change of 0.06% [2] - On October 28, 2025, total shares held were 7.108 billion, with a change of 12.528 million shares, reflecting a change of 0.18% [2] - On October 27, 2025, total shares held were 7.095 billion, with a change of 19.778 million shares, reflecting a change of 0.28% [2] - On October 24, 2025, total shares held were 7.075 billion, with a change of 31.802 million shares, reflecting a change of 0.45% [2] Company Overview - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation primarily engages in the production and distribution of oil and gas, operating through five main segments: oil and gas exploration, refining and chemicals, sales, natural gas sales, and headquarters and other services [2]

Core Insights - The decline in international oil prices has significantly impacted the performance of China's major oil companies, known as the "Big Three" [2] - For the first three quarters, China Petroleum, China National Petroleum, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation reported net profits of 29.984 billion yuan, 126.279 billion yuan, and 101.971 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 32.2%, 4.9%, and 12.6% [2] - The average price of crude oil sold by China Petroleum fell by 14.7% to $65.55 per barrel, while China National Offshore Oil's average price dropped by 13.6% to $68.92 per barrel, contributing to revenue declines in their oil and gas segments [2][3] Financial Performance - The combined net profit of the "Big Three" decreased by over 35 billion yuan compared to the previous year, equating to a daily loss of approximately 3.8 million yuan [2] - Despite the drop in oil prices, the profit decline for China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil was less severe than the price drop due to effective cost management and operational efficiency [3] - China Petroleum's oil and gas equivalent production increased by 2.6% to 1,377.2 million barrels, with unit operating costs decreasing by 6.1% to $10.79 per barrel [3] Natural Gas Segment - China National Offshore Oil reported a nearly 12% increase in natural gas production, significantly outpacing overall production growth, with natural gas sales revenue rising by 15.2% [3] - The average price of natural gas sold by China National Offshore Oil increased by 1% to $7.86 per thousand cubic feet, contributing positively to its financial performance [3] Downstream and Chemical Business - The downstream oil product sales and refining chemical sectors of China Petroleum and China Petrochemical are facing challenges due to decreased market demand and falling prices [3] - China Petroleum's chemical business reported an operating profit of 1.787 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 50%, while China Petrochemical's chemical segment experienced a pre-tax loss of 8.223 billion yuan, widening by nearly 68% [4] Industry Trends and Strategic Shifts - The peak demand for gasoline in the Chinese market was reached in 2023, with expectations of a significant decline post-2030, impacting the overall oil product demand [5] - In response to the pressures from renewable energy, the "Big Three" are accelerating their diversification into non-oil businesses [5] - China Petrochemical aims to transform into a comprehensive energy service provider by expanding into natural gas, hydrogen, and electric vehicle charging services [5] - China Petroleum is also focusing on integrating oil and gas exploration with renewable energy development, emphasizing the construction of comprehensive energy stations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of declining international oil prices on the performance of China's major oil companies, referred to as the "Three Barrels of Oil" (China Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC), highlighting their financial results and strategic responses to the changing market conditions [3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, China Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC reported net profits of 29.984 billion yuan, 126.279 billion yuan, and 101.971 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 32.2%, 4.9%, and 12.6% [3]. - The combined net profit of these companies decreased by over 35 billion yuan compared to the previous year, equating to a daily loss of approximately 380 million yuan [3]. - The average price of crude oil for China Petroleum fell by 14.7% to $65.55 per barrel, while CNOOC's average price dropped by 13.6% to $68.92 per barrel, leading to revenue declines in their oil and gas segments [3][4]. Operational Efficiency - Despite the decline in profits, China Petroleum and CNOOC managed to limit their profit drops compared to the oil price decline due to effective cost management and operational efficiency [4]. - China Petroleum's oil and gas equivalent production increased by 2.6% to 1,377.2 million barrels, with unit operating costs decreasing by 6.1% to $10.79 per barrel [4]. - CNOOC's net production rose by 6.7% to 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, with costs per barrel down by 2.8% to $27.35 [4]. Natural Gas Segment - The natural gas segment showed positive growth, with CNOOC's natural gas production increasing by nearly 12%, significantly outpacing overall production growth [5]. - The average price of natural gas rose by 1% to $7.86 per thousand cubic feet, contributing to a 15.2% increase in natural gas sales revenue [5]. Downstream Business Challenges - The downstream oil product sales and refining sectors faced challenges due to declining market demand and falling prices for key petroleum and petrochemical products [5]. - China Petroleum's chemical business saw operating profits drop by 50%, while Sinopec's chemical segment reported a pre-tax loss of 8.223 billion yuan, widening by nearly 68% year-on-year [5]. Strategic Shifts - In response to the pressures from the renewable energy sector, the "Three Barrels of Oil" are accelerating their diversification into non-oil businesses [6]. - China Petroleum plans to develop a comprehensive energy service model focusing on oil, gas, hydrogen, electricity, and services, while Sinopec is investing in electric vehicle charging infrastructure and clean energy operations [6]. - Both companies are emphasizing the integration of oil and gas exploration with renewable energy development, aiming to enhance their positions in the evolving energy landscape [6].

Core Insights - The "Three Barrel Oil" companies (China Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) experienced a significant decline in net profits in the first three quarters, totaling over 35 billion yuan, primarily due to falling international oil prices [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - China Petroleum reported a net profit of 126.28 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, while Sinopec and CNOOC reported net profits of 29.98 billion yuan and 101.97 billion yuan, down 32.2% and 12.6% respectively [1] - The combined net profit decline of over 35 billion yuan translates to a daily loss of approximately 380 million yuan [1] Group 2: Oil Price Impact - The average price of crude oil for China Petroleum fell by 14.7% to $65.55 per barrel, leading to an 8.3% decrease in oil and gas revenue to 622.39 billion yuan [1] - CNOOC's average price for crude oil decreased by 13.6% to $68.92 per barrel, resulting in a 5.9% drop in oil and gas sales revenue to 255.48 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Production and Cost Management - China Petroleum's oil and gas equivalent production increased by 2.6% to 1,377.2 million barrels, with unit operating costs decreasing by 6.1% to $10.79 per barrel [2] - CNOOC's net oil and gas production rose by 6.7% to 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, with costs per barrel down by 2.8% to $27.35 [2] Group 4: Natural Gas Performance - CNOOC's natural gas production increased by nearly 12%, significantly outpacing the overall growth rate of the company's oil and gas production [2] - The average price of natural gas for CNOOC rose by 1% to $7.86 per thousand cubic feet, contributing to a 15.2% increase in natural gas sales revenue [2]

(本文来自第一财经) 雪佛龙披露，第三季度营收及其他收入497.3亿美元；第三季度调整后每股收益1.85美元。雪佛龙盘前现 涨0.4%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, influenced by cost and fundamental factors. Supply surplus expectations will put long - term pressure on oil prices, and the entry of the asphalt downstream into the off - season will lead to weakening demand, making it difficult for the fundamentals to provide upward momentum. It is recommended to focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 3,100 - 3,350 yuan/ton [55] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In October, asphalt showed a weak and volatile trend under the combined influence of the cost side and fundamentals. At the beginning of the month, due to OPEC+ production increase and macro - negative factors, oil prices declined, weakening the cost support for asphalt. The lackluster peak demand season added downward pressure. At the end of the month, the US sanctions on Russian oil companies led to concerns about supply tightening, driving the market to rebound. Overall, with demand entering the off - season and facing downward pressure, the fundamentals are unlikely to improve effectively, and asphalt is expected to mainly fluctuate with crude oil [6] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Fed Interest Rate Cut**: On October 30, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.00% - 4.25% to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second cut this year. Fed Chairman Powell's "hawkish" remarks led traders to lower their bets on a December rate cut, with the current expected probability at 71%, down from 90%. The rate cut was in line with market expectations, and future attention should be paid to the US employment market. If economic data further decline, it will intensify concerns about the slowdown of the US economic growth and strengthen the expectation of crude oil supply surplus, suppressing oil prices [11] - **Geopolitical Factors**: There were frequent geopolitical events in October. The US - Russia presidential phone call, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the EU's 19th - round sanctions on Russia all affected the oil market. The sanctions led to a short - term rebound in the market, but since they are not a full - scale embargo, the impact on Russian oil production and global supply is limited. Geopolitical fluctuations have made the market somewhat desensitized, and the driving force has limited continuity [12] - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with Saudi Arabia as the main contributor. OPEC+ has increased production for two consecutive months, indicating its determination to compete for market share. Market expectations suggest that OPEC+ may continue to slightly increase production in the November meeting, which will put pressure on prices [14] - **IEA Forecast Adjustment**: The IEA raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintaining the expectation of supply surplus [15] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Production**: In October, domestic asphalt production totaled 2.623 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 291,100 tons but a month - on - month decrease of 130,000 tons. Weekly production reached a high at the beginning of the month and then declined as refineries entered the maintenance phase. It is expected that asphalt production will seasonally decline in the fourth quarter, alleviating supply pressure [17] - **Refinery Operating Rate**: In October, the domestic refinery operating rate decreased month - on - month as refineries entered the seasonal maintenance period and consumer demand entered the off - season. The weekly operating rate of asphalt sample enterprises was at a multi - year low and is expected to further decline, gradually easing supply pressure [22] - **Demand Side** - **Overall Demand**: In October, domestic asphalt shipments increased month - on - month in weekly data but were lower than before the National Day. Terminal rush - work drove replenishment demand, but the lackluster peak season led to a decline in terminal demand. As demand enters the off - season, shipments are expected to seasonally decline, and attention should be paid to winter storage [25] - **Modified Asphalt Capacity Utilization**: In October, the domestic modified asphalt capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month. On October 31, it was 15.03%, 3.91 percentage points lower than the same period last month, showing a trend of first decline and then rebound. As the north enters cold weather, construction is basically completed, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [27] - **Import and Export** - **Import**: In September, asphalt imports were 341,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72,600 tons, and the import average price increased slightly and remained stable [32] - **Export**: In September, asphalt exports were 79,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons, and the export average price increased slightly and remained stable [38] - **Inventory** - **Factory Inventory**: In October, domestic sample enterprise factory inventory decreased, but the rate of decline slowed down. On October 31, the inventory was 685,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 27,000 tons from the same period last month. It is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the decline rate [43] - **Social Inventory**: In October, domestic sample enterprise asphalt social inventory decreased. On October 31, the inventory was 937,000 tons, a decrease of 68,000 tons from the previous week and 168,000 tons from the same period last month. Terminal rush - work drove downstream consumption, accelerating the decline. Although demand is entering the off - season, supply pressure is also easing, and it is expected to continue to decline [47] - **Price Spread**: In October, the asphalt crack spread remained stable, and the asphalt processing dilution profit remained at a low level this year. Since the upward rebound momentum of crude oil is insufficient and asphalt fluctuates around oil prices, the crack spread is expected to remain at a high level [51]

格隆汇10月31日｜埃克森美孚石油周五公布的第三季度业绩超出华尔街预期，主要得益于圭亚那和美国 二叠纪盆地的石油和天然气产量增加，抵消了油价下跌的影响。根据LSEG汇编的数据，该公司7月至9 月季度的调整后利润为81亿美元，合每股收益1.88美元，高于分析师普遍预期的1.82美元。作为美国最 大的石油生产商，埃克森强调其丰富的资产组合和技术优势，有助于提高石油采收率，使公司即便在低 油价时期也能保持盈利。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. is prepared to sell more oil and gas to China if China reduces its purchases from Russia, indicating potential for mutually beneficial trade between the two countries [1] - According to U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm, the U.S. has the richest natural gas and oil reserves in the world, while China is the largest energy importer, suggesting a strong foundation for cooperation [3] - The U.S. is expected to become one of the top resource exporters globally, similar to Russia, as the country has completed its deindustrialization process [3] Group 2 - The U.S. could emerge as a strong player in financial services and resource exports, primarily targeting China as a key buyer [3]

瑞银发布研报称，中国石油股份(00857)2025年前九个月净利润同比下降5%，至1,263亿元人民币;第三 季度录得423亿元人民币，同比下降4%，但按季上升14%，优于该行的预测。瑞银上调中石油目标价， 从9.3港元升至10.3港元。鉴于2025年第三季度业绩优于预期，小幅上调中石油2025年预测盈利2%，评 级"买入"。 展望2025年第四季度，瑞银预期，布伦特原油价格平均为63美元/桶;因国内天然气需求进入旺季，预期 天然气价格及销量均可上升。瑞银又认为，炼油及化工基本面可能面临一些压力;并建议关注年底时的 资产减值情况。 长期而言，瑞银预期中石油2026至2028年油价分别为每桶64美元、70美元及75美元，逐步趋稳并反弹; 国内天然气价格可能较海外价格更稳定，因国内天然气需求仍处增长状态;中石油下游炼油及化工细分 市场可受益于反内卷政策。 ...