Core Insights - Multiple packaging paper companies have announced a new round of price increases, marking the 10th price hike since August [1] - The demand surge due to the upcoming holidays, combined with rising raw material costs, particularly waste paper, has driven up the price of original paper [1] Industry Summary - The cost of original paper constitutes 70% to 80% of the total cost of producing cartons, leading to increased prices for finished cartons [1] - Since the end of July, the prices of corrugated paper and kraft paper have been consistently rising, directly impacting carton prices [1] - Increased demand for waste paper and supply disruptions due to recent rainfall have contributed to the rising prices of waste paper [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) announced the resignation of Zhang Lianru as an executive director, effective September 30, 2025, due to the need to dedicate time to other work [1] Company Summary - Zhang Lianru's resignation is part of a strategic decision to allocate time to other responsibilities, which may impact the company's leadership structure moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities expects Nine Dragons Paper (02689) to maintain higher dollar-denominated profits than its peers, but further expanding this advantage may face challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Nine Dragons Paper's fiscal year 2025 second half performance exceeded expectations, primarily due to cost savings from its own pulp supply, which was better than anticipated [1] - The estimated net profit per ton for the second half of fiscal year 2025 is approximately 129 RMB, with around 80 RMB attributed to cost leadership advantages [1] Group 2: Production and Cost Dynamics - The company's self-produced pulp output is projected to increase from 3 million tons in fiscal year 2025 to an estimated 4.7 million tons in fiscal year 2026, with further increases expected post-2027 [2] - However, the effects of reduced unit costs and profit margin expansion may weaken, as seen in the Guangxi Beihai plant's double-sided paper products, where net profit per ton has decreased from 800-1,000 RMB to 500-600 RMB due to competition and rising raw material costs [2] - To address potential wood chip shortages, Nine Dragons has leased vessels for possible imports and anticipates a slight increase in procurement costs in the foreseeable future [2] Group 3: Valuation and Ratings - Bank of America Securities has slightly lowered its fiscal year 2026 to 2027 forecasts for Nine Dragons Paper and reduced the target price by 8% to 6 HKD, while reiterating a "Buy" rating due to attractive valuation at 7.4 times the projected 2026 price-to-earnings ratio [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities expects Nine Dragons Paper (02689) to maintain higher dollar-denominated profits than its peers, but further expanding this advantage may face challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Nine Dragons Paper's fiscal year 2025 second half performance exceeded expectations, primarily due to cost savings from its own pulp supply, which was better than anticipated [1] - The estimated net profit per ton for the second half of fiscal year 2025 is approximately 129 RMB, with around 80 RMB attributed to cost leadership advantages [1] Group 2: Production and Cost Dynamics - The company's self-produced pulp output is projected to increase from 3 million tons in fiscal year 2025 to an estimated 4.7 million tons in fiscal year 2026, with further increases expected post-2027 [2] - However, the effects of reduced unit costs and profit margin expansion may weaken due to competition and rising raw material prices, such as domestic wood chip prices increasing from 1,000 RMB per ton to 1,200 RMB per ton [2] - The net profit per ton for the high-margin double-coated paper products at the Beihai factory has decreased from 800-1,000 RMB to a recent 500-600 RMB due to new competitors and rising costs [2] - To address potential wood chip shortages, Nine Dragons Paper has leased ships for possible imports and anticipates a slight increase in procurement costs in the foreseeable future [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xianhe Co., Ltd. plans to raise up to 3 billion yuan through a private placement of shares to expand its production capacity in the specialty paper industry, aiming to solidify its market leadership position [2][3]. Group 1: Fundraising and Investment Plans - The company intends to issue no more than 212 million shares, raising a total of up to 3 billion yuan, with 2.1 billion yuan allocated to the second phase of the high-performance paper-based new materials project in Guangxi [2][3]. - The remaining 900 million yuan will be used to supplement working capital, addressing the increased funding needs due to major project advancements [7]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Financial Performance - Upon full production, the Guangxi project will add a total annual production capacity of 1.3 million tons of pulp and paper, including 600,000 tons of specialty paper [3][4]. - As of mid-2025, the company reported a total asset of 24.82 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 66.69%, indicating a need to improve financial stability through the new fundraising [7]. - In the first half of 2025, Xianhe Co. achieved a specialty pulp production of 1.1079 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 98.55%, and a revenue of 5.991 billion yuan, up 30.14% [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Development and Market Position - The company has been deeply engaged in the specialty paper industry for over 20 years, becoming one of the largest producers with a comprehensive range of products [5]. - Xianhe Co. is also investing in a 11 billion yuan bamboo pulp project in Sichuan, further expanding its production capabilities [6]. - The Guangxi project is part of a broader strategy to integrate the entire supply chain from forest to pulp and paper, enhancing production efficiency and profitability [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper's FY25 results met expectations, with a revenue increase of 6.3% YoY to Rmb63.24 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of Rmb1.77 billion, reflecting a significant 176% HoH increase in 2HFY25 [1]. Sales and Production Trends - The company reported a total sales volume increase of 10% YoY to 21.5 million tonnes in FY25, driven by growth in kraft paper (+1.10 million tonnes), ivory board (+500,000 tonnes), and P&W paper (+400,000 tonnes) [1]. - For FY26, the company has commissioned 1.2 million tonnes of ivory board paper, 350,000 tonnes of P&W paper, and 700,000 tonnes of chemical pulp in 1HFY26, with plans for an additional 350,000 tonnes of P&W paper within the year [2]. - Forecasts indicate paper production and sales volume will increase by over 5% YoY in FY26, with plans to commission 700,000 tonnes of ivory board paper in Chongqing and another 500,000 tonnes in Tianjin in 1HFY27 [3]. Pricing and Profitability - The company anticipates a near-term recovery in linerboard and corrugated board prices, estimating profit per tonne (before interest on perpetual bonds) at Rmb59 in 1HFY25 and Rmb151 in 2HFY25, with the latter benefiting from increased self-produced pulp output and lower thermal coal prices [4]. - Price hikes for linerboard and corrugated board have been progressing since July, supported by improving industry demand and rising domestic wastepaper prices, although costs per tonne have slightly increased due to rising coal and wastepaper prices [4]. Capital Expenditure and Financial Outlook - In FY25, the company's capex reached Rmb14.8 billion, a 15.7% YoY increase, while the debt-to-asset ratio rose by 1 percentage point YoY to 66%. For FY26, capex is guided at Rmb11 billion, reflecting ongoing expansion efforts [5]. - Following the implementation of cost-cutting and efficiency measures, earnings forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been raised by 11% and 15% to Rmb2.75 billion and Rmb2.88 billion, respectively. The stock is currently trading at 0.5x and 0.4x P/B, with a target price increase of 17% to HK$7, indicating a 22% upside [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Near - term oil prices are subject to many disturbances. Geopolitical tensions push up prices, but supply - side pressure remains significant. OPEC+ may increase production. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade in the range of $67.8 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Cost support is strong, but demand is weak in the short term due to the approaching holiday and rainy weather. Supply remains high. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and crack spreads are expected to be bearish in the medium term [3][4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are suppressed by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing while demand lacks a clear driver [5][6][7]. - **PX & PTA**: PX is in a tight balance with a reduced de - stocking rate. PTA's supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and inventory accumulation pressure is not large. Prices are mainly affected by the macro - environment and cost [7][9][10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weaker than last year. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - **Short Fiber**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices, but processing fees are expected to remain low [13][15]. - **PR (Bottle Chip)**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices. Processing fees are expected to fluctuate at a low level as demand transitions from peak to off - peak [15][16]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: In the short term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment. In the long term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and prices are expected to decline [18][19][20]. - **Propylene**: Supply is increasing, and the market is overall loose. Downstream product profits are poor. It is recommended to short on rebounds [20][21][22]. - **Plastic PP**: Supply is expected to face new capacity releases, and demand in October is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see during the holiday and short on rebounds in the medium term [22][23][24]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is currently in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term trading focuses on weak reality, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is positive [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions lightly during the holiday [26][27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Before the holiday, prices are expected to remain stable. After the holiday, the market may be weak. It is recommended to hold light or no positions during the holiday [30][31][32]. - **Glass**: Before the holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. Demand is relatively weak, and the sustainability of the upward trend needs attention [33][34][35]. - **Log**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [35][36][38]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [39][40]. - **Pulp**: Short - term supply and demand are both weak, but the market is stabilizing. It is recommended to buy on dips [40][41][42]. - **Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber**: It is recommended to short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [43][44][45]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BR 11 contract should be observed after hitting the stop - loss. Hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501 [47][48]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 rose $0.74 to $65.72 per barrel (+1.14%); Brent2511 rose $0.71 to $70.13 per barrel (+1.02%); SC2511 rose to 495 yuan per barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Iraq's northern oil pipeline resumes operation; OPEC+ may increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day; the US asks India to reduce Russian oil purchases [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect wide - range fluctuations, with the intraday range of the Brent main contract at $67.8 - 70 per barrel; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracks are weak; options: wait and see [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3463 points at night (+0.35%); BU2512 closed at 3425 points at night (+0.50%). Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [3]. - **Related News**: Demand in different regions is different, and crude oil price increases support asphalt prices, but some refineries are still accumulating inventory [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect range - bound fluctuations; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to weaken; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 closed at 2972 (+1.99%); LU11 closed at 3525 (+1.59%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [5]. - **Related News**: Nigerian refinery lays off workers; Russian refinery is attacked [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and the LU near - month contract will fluctuate with crude oil; arbitrage: consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [6][7]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 closed at 6690 at night (+0.51%); TA601 closed at 4670 at night (+0.52%). PX spot prices fell, and PTA spot trading was weak [7]. - **Related News**: PX and PTA operating rates increased, and polyester operating rates decreased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [10][11]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 closed at 4238 at night (+0.59%). Spot and futures basis are given [11]. - **Related News**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol decreased, and downstream sales were poor [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect weak fluctuations; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [12][13]. Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 closed at 6350 at night (+0.38%). Spot prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Related News**: Downstream sales were poor [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 closed at 5820 at night (+0.31%). Spot trading was light [15]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip operating rate decreased, and polyester operating rates decreased slightly [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [16][18]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 5921 at night (+0.30%); EB2511 closed at 6969 at night (+0.29%). Spot prices in different regions are given [18]. - **Related News**: The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: long pure benzene and short styrene; options: wait and see [19][20]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 closed at 6396 at night (+0.49%). Spot prices in different regions are given [20][21]. - **Related News**: The propylene operating rate increased [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short on rebounds; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell put options [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: Spot prices of LLDPE and PP in different regions showed different trends [22][23]. - **Related News**: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: wait and see during the holiday, and short on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [23][24]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices of caustic soda in different regions changed [24]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine decreased [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term focus on weak reality, medium - term focus on long opportunities; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [25][26]. PVC - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices fluctuated slightly, and trading was light [27]. - **Related News**: The price of calcium carbide decreased [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions lightly during the holiday; arbitrage: conduct 1 - 5 and 3 - 5 month - spread reverse arbitrage; options: wait and see [27][28][30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures price of soda ash changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [30]. - **Related News**: Soda ash production reached a historical high, and inventory decreased [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday. Hold light or no positions during the holiday; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [31][32][33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The futures price of glass changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [33]. - **Related News**: Glass production increased, inventory decreased, and profits improved slightly [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to fluctuate before the holiday. Pay attention to demand and the sustainability of the upward trend; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [34][35]. Log - **Market Review**: Spot prices of logs in different regions are stable, and the 11 - month contract fluctuated slightly [35]. - **Related News**: The number of incoming log ships increased, and inventory decreased [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the LG2511 contract on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell LG2511 - C - 820 [38][39]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market Review**: Spot prices of offset printing paper are stable, and raw material prices changed slightly [39]. - **Related News**: Production and inventory of offset printing paper increased [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the 01 contract; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell OP2601 - C - 4500 [40]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures price of pulp decreased, and spot prices of different pulp types changed [40][41]. - **Related News**: A new pulp project was put into operation [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: wait and see and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread; options: wait and see [42][43]. Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: Futures prices of natural rubber and No. 20 rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [43][44]. - **Related News**: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract; arbitrage: conduct the spread trade of BR2511 - RU2601; options: wait and see [45][46]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The futures price of butadiene rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [47]. - **Related News**: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: observe after hitting the stop - loss; arbitrage: hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501; options: wait and see [48][49].

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on Offset Printing Paper - Report Date: September 28, 2025 - Analyst: Shi Yining - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0022533 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of offset printing paper fluctuated little and mainly moved within a range. The spot market supply and demand may remain weak due to the gradual resumption of production by large manufacturers and weak overall demand. However, the current negative factors have been fully priced in the market, and there is a possibility of short - term marginal improvement in the supply - demand situation, mainly from the concentrated release of publishing tender orders and the improvement of the overall sentiment in the commodity market. The current downward trading value is limited, and there is a risk of a reversal of the consensus expectation. The price trend is mainly volatile, and investors should pay attention to the opportunities of buying at lows and selling at highs [54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - This Thursday, the inventory days of domestic double - offset paper increased by 1.26% compared with last Thursday, and the weekly increase rate expanded by 0.25 percentage points. The overall industry start - up level rebounded, the supply of goods increased, but the market demand was limited, and the paper mill inventory further accumulated. - This week, the operating load rate of domestic double - offset paper was 51.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, and the weekly increase rate expanded by 0.10 percentage points. The operation of an individual production line in Shandong recovered, while the operation levels of other large - scale paper mills changed little, and the industry operating load rate increased slightly [6]. Market Trend - The daily average price of mainstream double - offset paper (70g high - white) in the market had a week - on - week ratio of 0 and a year - on - year ratio of - 12.5%. - In the spot market, the prices of most 70g double - offset papers in Shandong and Guangdong markets remained unchanged week - on - week, except for 70g Chenming Yunbao and 70g Huaxia Taiyang in the Guangdong market, which decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The pre - tax and after - tax gross profits of double - offset paper decreased week - on - week. In the futures market, the prices of OP2601.SHF and OP2603.SHF increased, and the 1 - 3 price spread decreased. The basis of some varieties decreased [12][13]. Supply - Demand Data Supply - In 2024, the domestic double - offset paper industry's production capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57%. - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry's output was 173,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 51.5%. - In August, the domestic double - offset paper import volume was about 18,900 tons, maintaining a low level [22][28][38]. Demand - This week, the domestic double - offset paper sales volume was 168,600 tons. - In August, the domestic double - offset paper export volume was about 56,800 tons [33][38]. Inventory - In August, the social inventory and enterprise inventory of double - offset paper showed a slight accumulation. This week, the enterprise inventory of double - offset paper was 363,500 tons [33][44]. Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [50]. Market Judgment - Supply: Domestic production this week was 173,200 tons with a capacity utilization rate of 51.5%, and the import volume in August was about 18,900 tons, remaining at a low level. - Demand: This week's domestic sales volume was 168,600 tons, and the export volume in August was about 56,800 tons. - View: The futures market was mainly in a volatile state last week, closing at 4,230 yuan/ton on Friday night. The spot market had little fluctuation, and the trading volume in the futures market was limited. In the future, the supply - demand in the spot market may remain weak, but there is a possibility of short - term marginal improvement. The current downward trading value is limited, and there is a risk of a reversal of the consensus expectation. - Valuation: According to the current spot price, the current valuation does not provide delivery profit, and the overall valuation is low. The current futures price is close to the production cost of some enterprises with a low degree of integration. - Strategy: The price trend is mainly volatile. Pay attention to the opportunities of buying at lows and selling at highs [54].

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's imports of pulp, paper, and related products reached 3.56 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [1] - The import value for the same period was $2.226 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [1] - Exports of pulp, paper, and related products amounted to 1.53 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, while the export value was $2.494 billion, showing a decline of 1.1% year-on-year [1] Import Data - The import quantity of pulp, paper, and related products in July 2025 was 3.56 million tons [1] - The import value for these products was $2.226 billion [1] - The year-on-year growth rate for imports in terms of quantity was 10.7% and 3.6% in terms of value [1] Export Data - The export quantity of pulp, paper, and related products in July 2025 was 1.53 million tons [1] - The export value for these products was $2.494 billion [1] - The year-on-year growth rate for exports in terms of quantity was 7.5%, while the value experienced a decline of 1.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xianhe Co., Ltd. plans to issue A-shares to raise up to 3 billion yuan for its high-performance paper-based new materials project and to supplement working capital [1][2] Group 1: Fundraising and Investment Details - The company intends to issue no more than 211,792,834 shares to a maximum of 35 specific investors, with total fundraising not exceeding 3 billion yuan [1] - The total investment for the Guangxi Sanjiangkou New Area high-performance paper-based new materials project is 5.404 billion yuan, with 2.1 billion yuan allocated from the raised funds [2][5] - The project aims to achieve an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of pulp and 700,000 tons of paper, totaling 1.3 million tons [5] Group 2: Market and Industry Context - Xianhe Co., Ltd. has been a leader in the specialty paper industry for over 20 years, benefiting from domestic consumption upgrades and stringent environmental policies [3] - The global focus on plastic pollution and the implementation of "plastic bans" have created significant market opportunities for biodegradable and recyclable paper-based materials [6] - Consumer preferences are shifting towards high-quality, food-safe packaging, driven by rising living standards and new consumption models [6] Group 3: Strategic Objectives of the Fundraising - The fundraising aims to strengthen the company's market leadership and support its strategic development plans amid favorable industry conditions [7] - The funds will help alleviate working capital pressure and optimize the financial structure, enabling the company to meet the funding needs of large-scale projects and technological advancements [8] Group 4: Recent Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.991 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.14%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 13.80% to 474 million yuan [15]