Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations in yields, with a focus on whether the 10-year government bond yield can break through previous resistance levels, amid a backdrop of weak economic recovery [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 2, the interbank bond market showed a downward trend in yields, with the 3-month government bond yield stable at 1.30%, the 2-year yield down 1 basis point to 1.36%, and the 10-year yield at 1.64% [2]. - The bond market remains stable despite seasonal liquidity changes, with experts expressing optimism about the potential for the 10-year yield to break previous resistance levels [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Seasonal liquidity is expected to ease in July, providing a foundation for a potential "bond bull" market, as July typically sees lower funding rates due to weaker credit demand and local government pressure [3]. - Insurance institutions may benefit from a potential reduction in preset interest rates, leading to increased premium income and a higher acceptance of long-term rates [3]. - The net supply of government bonds in the third quarter is projected to be high, with net financing estimated between 2.09 trillion to 2.63 trillion yuan, which could exert pressure on the bond market [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite the challenges, there are still opportunities in the bond market, particularly with the influx of incremental funds from insurance and bank wealth management products [7]. - The ongoing "yield spread" enthusiasm since June is expected to continue, with significant declines in yields for various bond types [8]. - Institutions are advised to maintain a bullish outlook on the bond market, focusing on medium to long-term bonds as the market sentiment is likely to rise again in July [9].

Core Viewpoint - The yield on the UK's 30-year government bonds surged by 21 basis points to 5.44% [1] Group 1 - The increase in the yield indicates rising borrowing costs for the government, which may impact future fiscal policies [1] - This significant rise in yield reflects market expectations regarding inflation and interest rate movements [1] - The 30-year bond yield reaching 5.44% suggests a shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government debt [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that UK bonds continue to remain sluggish, with the 30-year government bond yield surging by 20 basis points to 5.43% [1]

英国国债继续下跌，10年期国债收益率上升16个基点，至4.62%。 ...

英国国债延续跌势，10年期国债收益率上升11个基点，至4.56%。 ...

资金面均衡宽松，资金价格继续回落，DR001在1.36%附近，DR007在1.51%附近。 今日股市偏弱震荡，资金面进一步宽松，利率先下行，尾盘央行公告6月未买债，利率小幅回升。 早盘债市延续昨日尾盘偏暖情绪，10Y国债利率基本平开在1.6425%后小幅下至1.6385%附近。股市偏弱 震荡，叠加资金面进一步宽松，10Y国债利率最低下至1.6345%。尾盘央行公告6月净投放6560亿元，未 在公开市场进行国债买卖，利率小幅回升至1.64%附近。 -------------------------- 今日投资主题：反内卷！"供给侧"概念嗨翻天。债农表示最需要反内卷的应该是A债啊！拉久期？跳过 10Y，无视30Y，直接一步到位上50Y！近一个月，30Y-10Y国债利差还在20BP徘徊，而50Y-30Y利差已 经从20BP"卷"到了10BP。 近日辜朝明先生一语道破"中国10Y国债利率降至1.6%"的天机：本质上是资产负债表衰退的"标准反 应"，当个人和企业的首要目标从"追求利润"转向"生存还债"，整个社会的借贷意愿就会断崖式下跌， 银行只能转而购买国债，压低利率。 【今日盘面】 【笔记20250702— 债市也需 ...

Group 1 - The company plans to issue corporate debt financing tools not exceeding 4 billion yuan to meet operational funding needs and optimize debt structure [1] - The issuance will include medium-term notes up to 2.5 billion yuan and ultra-short-term financing bonds up to 1.5 billion yuan [1]

英国10年期国债收益率上升5个基点，至4.51%。 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 国信证券 GUOSEN SECURITIES 证券分析师: 王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 ESG产品月报(2025.7) ESG主动基金业绩优异 策略研究 · ESG专题 证券分析师: 陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 证券研究报告 | 2025年7月2日 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ■ ESG产品概况：ESG公募基金产品情况：新发数量波动显著，2024年11月与2025年1月、3月达高峰，2025年2月及4月骤降；近 两年整体规模增长但分化明显，ESG策略基金与环境保护主题基金增速领先，纯ESG主题、社会责任及公司治理主题发展平缓 （公司治理产品数量稳定为20只）。ESG债券产品情况：ESG债券发行金额波动剧烈、2025年4月以1721.55亿元创峰值、6月发 行金额达到第二高，为1469.94亿元，1月仅378.44亿元处于低谷;高评级（4级及以上）ESG债券共7只，主要 ...

国收研究报告 可证券|CGS 震荡格局下波段为主、关注大 6 月债市回顾及 7 月展望 核心观点 债市回顾:利率震荡下行,收益率曲线牛陡 ● 6月以来,债市在中美谈判未超预期、央行阿护资金面、以伊冲突等因素的影响下,债 市震荡走强,短端下行幅度更大,10Y、1Y国债收益率分别下行 3BP、11BP。上半 月,在央行两度公告开展买断式逆回购呵护资金面、中美谈判未超预期、国际地缘冲突 加剧的影响下,债市走强,10Y 国债收益率下行 3BP;月下旬,在央行买断式逆回购 落地、重启国债买卖预期短暂落空、市场预期监管窗口指导的影响下,债市震荡略走 强. 10Y 国债收益率下行 0.4BP;月末,受止盈压力、权益市场走强带来的股债路路 板等影响, 债市震荡走弱, 10Y 国债收益率上行 1BP。截至 6 月 27 日，10 年期国债 收益率自1.67%下行 2.5BP 至 1.65%,1年期国债收益率自1.46%下行 11BP 至 1.35%, 期限利差走阔 8.5BP 至 30.1BP。 ● 本月债市展望:资金面大概率无虞,关注政治局会议政策加力信号 基本面来看,对于 6月,一方面继续关注 CPI 在 0 附近徘徊的可 ...