2025年已步入尾声，回顾2025年以来的债市发展，在政策"组合拳"支持下，债券市场"科技板"的落地无 疑是业界关注焦点。 自2025年5月债市"科技板"推出后，全新的科技创新债券（简称"科创债"）市场快速扩张，截至目前的 发行规模接近1.87万亿元。金融类主体提供重要增量，地方产投发行增多，民企发行占比有所提升，推 动科创债市场多元化发展。 对于今年以来科创债发行提速的原因，华鑫证券认为，2025年5月，债券市场"科技板"创设，相较此前 政策主要有五方面改进，包括扩展发行主体、放松资金用途、简化发行流程、引导长期资金投资及改善 市场流动性、优化评级及风险分担机制。 2025年5月，人民银行联合证监会发布公告，建立了债券市场"科技板"，重点支持金融机构、科技型企 业和股权投资机构三类主体发行科技创新债券，并在债券发行上给予了差异化的灵活安排。 政策发布以来，市场反响热烈，科创债发行明显放量。数据显示，今年5月—10月发行规模达1.36万亿 元，超过2024年全年科创债发行总量。截至12月29日，债市"科技板"新政口径下的科创债已发行1681 只，涉及发行人790家，总规模近1.87万亿元。 今年5月以来科创债 ...

2025年已步入尾声，回顾2025年以来的债市发展，在政策"组合拳"支持下，债券市场"科技板"的落地无 疑是业界关注焦点。 自2025年5月债市"科技板"推出后，全新的科技创新债券（简称"科创债"）市场快速扩张，截至目前的 发行规模接近1.87万亿元。金融类主体提供重要增量，地方产投发行增多，民企发行占比有所提升，推 动科创债市场多元化发展。 债市"科技板"不仅发行规模快速放量，同时科创债的生态也在渐趋完善。不仅有科创债ETF横空出世， 提升市场流动性和参与度，同时信用风险缓释工具及信用违约互换等风险管理工具也不断创新，更好地 为投资者保驾护航。 发行规模近1.87万亿元 2025年以来，科技创新领域支持政策密集出台，债市明确将科技创新作为融资支持的重点方向之一，从 政策层面强化预期引导。 2025年5月，人民银行联合证监会发布公告，建立了债券市场"科技板"，重点支持金融机构、科技型企 业和股权投资机构三类主体发行科技创新债券，并在债券发行上给予了差异化的灵活安排。 政策发布以来，市场反响热烈，科创债发行明显放量。数据显示，今年5月—10月发行规模达1.36万亿 元，超过2024年全年科创债发行总量。截至12 ...

2025年已步入尾声， 回顾2025年以来的债市发展，在政策"组合拳"支持下，债券市场"科技板"的落地无疑是业界关注焦点。 自 2 025 年 5月债市"科技板"推出后，全新的科技创新债券（简称"科创债"）市场快速扩张 ，截至目前的发行规模接近 1 .87 万亿元。金融 类主体提供重要增量，地方产投发行增多，民企发行占比有所提升，推动科创债市场多元化发展。 债市"科技板"不仅发行规模快速放量，同时科创债的生态也在渐趋完善。不仅有科创债ETF横空出世，提升市场流动性和参与度，同时信用 风险缓释工具及信用违约互换等风险管理工具也不断创新，更好地为投资者保驾护航。 发行规模近1.87万亿元 2025年以来，科技创新领域支持政策密集出台，债市明确将科技创新作为融资支持的重点方向之一，从政策层面强化预期引导。 2025年5月，人民银行联合证监会发布公告，建立了债券市场"科技板"，重点支持金融机构、科技型企业和股权投资机构三类主体发行科技 创新债券，并在债券发行上给予了差异化的灵活安排。 政策发布以来，市场反响热烈，科创债发行明显放量。数据显示，今年5月—10月发行规模达1.36万亿元，超过2024年全年科创债发行总 量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent adjustment in the bond market is likely to be more of a short - term phenomenon, mainly influenced by policy expectations, sentiment, and supply - demand factors in the short term. In the long run, the bond market logic will return to the fundamentals and the capital situation. - In 2026, the core operating range of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may be between 1.7% - 1.9%, and it may maintain low - level fluctuations. Credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but the contraction amplitude may be limited [5][22][24]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Interest - rate bonds**: Since November, the yield curve has become steeper, with the adjustment pressure concentrated on the long - end. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields have fluctuated upward, with the 30 - year yield rising more significantly. The 1 - year yield has been relatively stable. The amplitude of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds since November has been 6bp, 8bp, and 14bp respectively, and the key term spreads have expanded [5][8]. - **Credit bonds**: The adjustment of credit bonds has been relatively lagging, and credit spreads have slightly widened passively. The credit bond yields first fluctuated upward, with medium - and high - grade yields rising more, and then all grades of yields declined to varying degrees. Credit bonds have recovered faster. As of December 22, the AA - grade bond yield has decreased by 9bp compared to early November, and the interest rates of higher - grade 3 - year medium - and short - term notes are similar to those at the beginning of November. Most credit spreads have widened passively, and they are still at historically low levels [5][11]. Adjustment Reasons - **Weak sentiment**: Before important policy meetings, the market entered an observation period, and there was uncertainty about policies such as next year's fiscal strength. The central bank's insufficient liquidity injection and the real - estate enterprise credit event also disturbed market sentiment [5][14]. - **Cautious institutional behavior**: Near the end of the year, under external constraints such as assessment pressure and regulatory policies, institutions' redemption and profit - taking intentions increased, and the willingness to buy was insufficient. The expectation of public - fund fee reform also led to bond - fund position adjustment and selling [5][16]. - **Supply - demand imbalance**: The supply of long - term bonds has increased while the demand has decreased. The supply of medium - and long - term Treasury bonds has increased, especially the supply of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds, while the ability of banks, insurance companies, and other institutions to absorb them is limited, and the demand from funds and other trading players has declined [5][18]. - **Insensitive to economic data**: The market has been insensitive to weak economic data, and the fundamentals have not dominated the recent interest - rate trend. The economic data has continued to show weak recovery, but the market has anticipated it in advance, and the inflation rebound has also suppressed sentiment [5][20]. Future Outlook - **Interest - rate bonds**: In 2026, the macro - policy will maintain a supportive tone of "loose money + loose finance". The weak economic recovery and abundant liquidity environment do not support a significant upward trend in bond yields. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may operate in the range of 1.7% - 1.9%, but it may fluctuate due to challenges in demand and institutional behavior. Uncertain factors such as continued weakening of the fundamentals, intensified geopolitical evolution, and the implementation of fund - fee reform need to be vigilant [22][23][24]. - **Credit bonds**: Under the moderately loose monetary policy and the "asset shortage" situation, credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but considering that they are already at historically low levels, the contraction amplitude may be limited [25].

Group 1 - The credit bond market is expected to experience moderate growth in issuance, with a projected net financing scale of 1.8 to 2.3 trillion yuan and total issuance between 16.9 to 17.4 trillion yuan in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 3% to 6% [4] - The issuance of industrial bonds has been robust, with a total issuance of 8.13 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.52%, while the net financing scale reached 2.05 trillion yuan, up 52.24% [16] - The issuance of innovative bond varieties has significantly expanded, with a total issuance of 30.24 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, an increase of 122.1 billion yuan year-on-year, driven by the establishment of the "Technology Board" [22][23] Group 2 - The secondary market for credit bonds has shown steady trading activity, with total bond transactions reaching 384.89 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, a 0.91% increase from the previous year [33] - Credit spreads have narrowed to historical lows, with the spreads for various grades of bonds generally decreasing by 3 to 74 basis points compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a tightening of credit risk premiums [42] - The yield on credit bonds has exhibited an "M-shaped" fluctuation pattern, with yields remaining at relatively low levels, particularly for AAA-rated short-term notes, which are below the 25th percentile since 2014 [36][40]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced significant weakness on December 29, driven by expectations of supply pressure under a proactive fiscal policy, leading to a decline in government bond futures and an increase in interbank bond yields [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.91% to 111.82, the 10-year main contract down 0.28% to 107.975, and the 5-year main contract down 0.18% to 105.84 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally rose, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 3.65 basis points to 2.255%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2.45 basis points to 1.86% [2]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 4,823 billion yuan with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 4,150 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate down 1.0 basis point to 1.248%, while the 7-day rate rose by 11.0 basis points to 1.558% [6]. Fiscal Policy Insights - The national fiscal work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools [8]. - Key tasks for 2026 include boosting domestic demand, increasing investment in new productive forces, and enhancing basic social safety nets [8]. Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income noted that the bond market is likely to remain in a volatile state in the first quarter, with a neutral monetary policy expected and potential for reserve requirement ratio cuts [9]. - CITIC Securities highlighted increased volatility in long-term bond yields and suggested that despite pressures, long-term bonds still offer relative value for allocation [9].

Macroeconomic Group - In November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 6.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, but a decline of 1.8 percentage points compared to October, marking two consecutive months of decline [4] - The manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year growth of 5.0% from January to November, down 2.7 percentage points from October [4] - In November, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 13.1% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 5.5% in October, primarily due to the rise in PPI being concentrated upstream without transmission to downstream [4] Industry Overview - The upstream sector is experiencing differentiation, with poor performance in downstream industries and better results in the midstream [5] - Industries with higher year-on-year growth from January to November include non-ferrous metals, transportation equipment manufacturing, electronic equipment manufacturing, and automotive manufacturing [5] - Industries with lower year-on-year growth include coal, steel, furniture manufacturing, textile and apparel, paper, and pharmaceuticals [5] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Leading companies in lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, such as Hunan YN and Wanrun New Energy, have announced production halts, expected to reduce monthly output by approximately 20,000 to 55,000 tons, tightening market supply [12] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded over 50% since mid-year, currently exceeding 100,000 yuan per ton, constituting over 40% of the cost of lithium iron phosphate [12] - The supply-side expansion is constrained, with low willingness to expand production and increased quality thresholds limiting effective supply growth, while demand remains strong due to the high demand in new energy vehicles and energy storage [12] Consumer Group - The current operations of the company are still in an adjustment phase, with a high single-digit decline in all-channel sales for Q3 of FY2026 (September to November 2025) [14] - The management acknowledges pressure on the full-year net profit guidance, but deviations are manageable [14] - The core brand Nike has increased support for the Chinese market, helping the company clear old inventory and stabilize gross profit and cash flow [14]

美国国债收益率在临近年底的淡静交投中走低。市场焦点将集中于定于周二发布的美联储会议纪要，投 资者希望从中获取2026年进一步降息幅度与时间表的信号。疲软的美国劳动力市场暗示利率可能继续下 调，但投资者也注意到近期超预期的第三季度GDP数据。伦交所数据显示，美国货币市场目前定价2026 年至少会有两次降息，首次降息可能要到4月或6月。Tradeweb数据显示，10年期国债收益率下降2个基 点至4.115%，较2025年初的约4.571%有所回落。 美国国债收益率在临近年底的淡静交投中走低。市场焦点将集中于定于周二发布的美联储会议纪要，投 资者希望从中获取2026年进一步降息幅度与时间表的信号。疲软的美国劳动力市场暗示利率可能继续下 调，但投资者也注意到近期超预期的第三季度GDP数据。伦交所数据显示，美国货币市场目前定价2026 年至少会有两次降息，首次降息可能要到4月或6月。Tradeweb数据显示，10年期国债收益率下降2个基 点至4.115%，较2025年初的约4.571%有所回落。 责任编辑：王许宁 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - None provided Core Viewpoints - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend this week, with the 10-year Treasury yield continuing to fluctuate between 1.83% and 1.88%. The improvement in cross-year funds is expected to support the continued strength of short-term bonds, and the yield curve may steepen further [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Bond Market Review Secondary Market - The bond market fluctuated last week, with short-term bond yields declining significantly and long-term yields rising slightly. The 10-year Treasury futures main contract rose 0.20% cumulatively. On Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.68bp from the previous Friday, while the 1-year Treasury yield dropped 6.75bp, and the term spread widened significantly [5] - On December 22, the bond market weakened under pressure due to stable LPR quotes and rising stock markets. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.09bp, and the 10-year futures main contract fell 0.09% [6] - On December 23, the bond market strengthened due to the entry of allocation funds. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.63bp, and the 10-year futures main contract rose 0.26% [6] - On December 24, the bond market oscillated under the influence of multiple rumors. The 10-year Treasury yield fell slightly by 0.04bp, and the 10-year futures main contract rose 0.02% [6] - On December 25, the bond market fluctuated narrowly, with short-term bonds remaining warm and medium - and long-term bonds weakening. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.30bp, and the 10-year futures main contract fell 0.02% [6] - On December 26, the bond market warmed up due to loose funds and early - year allocation expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.10bp, and the 10-year futures main contract rose 0.10% [6][7] Primary Market - Nine interest rate bonds were issued last week, 26 less than the previous week, with a total issuance of 210.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 166 billion yuan. The net financing was 174.8 billion yuan, an increase of 153.9 billion yuan. There were no policy - financial bonds issued or repaid. Treasury issuance and net financing increased, while local bond issuance decreased, and net financing also decreased [15] - The overall subscription demand for interest rate bonds was acceptable. The average subscription multiple for 3 issued Treasuries was 2.74 times, and for 6 local bonds, it was 15.17 times [16] 2. Last Week's Important Events - The central bank conducted 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25. With 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, the net MLF investment in December was 100 billion yuan, which was the tenth consecutive month of increased roll - over, meeting market expectations. This was to support the liquidity of the banking system and help stabilize growth and expectations at the end of the year [18] 3. Real Economy Observation - High - frequency production data showed mixed trends last week. Blast furnace operating rates and petroleum asphalt plant operating rates continued to decline, while semi - steel tire operating rates and daily hot metal production rebounded [19] - In terms of demand, the BDI index continued to decline, while the CCFI index continued to rise. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to increase [19] - In terms of prices, pork prices fell slightly, while most commodity prices rose, including copper and oil prices, and the rebar price fell slightly [19] 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net investment in the open market last week was 155.2 billion yuan [26][28] - R007 and DR007 both rose, the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks declined overall, the national - share direct discount rate increased significantly, the volume of pledged repurchase decreased significantly, and the leverage ratio of the inter - bank market first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase [31][33][36]

| | | 中德国债收益率曲线(到期)% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 12月19日 | 12月26日 | 变动BP | | 0 | 1.19 | 1. 1057 | -8. 43 | | 0.08 | 1. 2437 | 1. 1901 | -5. 36 | | 0. 17 | 1.3336 | 1.248 | -8.56 | | 0. 25 | 1.35 | 1. 3053 | -4. 47 | | 0.5 | 1.35 | 1. 3185 | -3.15 | | 0. 75 | 1.3519 | 1.2872 | -6. 47 | | 1 | 1.3547 | 1.2872 | -6. 75 | | 2 | 1. 3752 | 1. 3378 | -3.74 | | 3 | 1.3941 | 1. 3627 | -3.14 | | 5 | 1.6021 | 1.5948 | -0. 73 | | 7 | 1.7258 | 1. 7033 | -2. 25 | | 10 | 1.8308 | 1.8376 | 0.68 | | I E | 2. 114 ...