2.液冷领域：重点关注具备全栈解决方案能力、已获头部客户认证并拥有大规模交付经验的龙头企业， 将成为此轮产业确定性红利的主要受益者，如英维克、飞龙股份。 3.光纤光缆领域：关注在特种光纤、海洋通信等领域技术领先，且产能规模占优的龙头企业，如中天科 技、亨通光电。 最后，算力集群内部海量的数据交换，以及跨数据中心的互联DCI，显著带动了光纤光缆的用量；与此 同时，全球供应链的产能瓶颈（尤其体现在光纤预制棒环节）与国内"东数西算"等工程对特种光纤的集 中需求相叠加，共同推动了光纤光缆市场的供需关系趋紧，行业价格步入复苏通道。 在这一趋势下，机构提示投资逻辑应聚焦于两个层面：一是选择直接受益于规格升级且需求弹性大的环 节；二是筛选在量产能力、客户认证和供应链地位上已建立壁垒的龙头企业。具体收益方向如下： 1.光模块与上游器件：聚焦已实现800G大规模交付、并率先推进1.6T产能爬坡的龙头公司，如中际旭 创、新易盛；同时关注直接受益于技术迭代和客户需求上修的上游光器件公司，如天孚通信。 在12月8日的FORCE原动力大会上，火山引擎总裁谭待介绍，近日豆包大模型日均Tokens使用量已突破 50万亿，居中国第一、全球第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI is profoundly reshaping the demand for optical fibers and cables, pushing the industry supply-demand relationship into a new cycle, with a potential supply shortage expected in the next two years [2][34]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tightening supply has already led to price increases, with G.652.D fiber prices rising over 20% since early 2025, driven by AI demand for various fiber types that are occupying production capacity [2][6]. - Global demand and capacity have regional mobility, meaning that as overseas manufacturers supply North America, non-North American markets will also face supply shortages, with leading domestic companies having an export ratio of 30-50% [2][34]. - The global optical fiber demand is projected to reach 880 million core kilometers by 2027, with AI expected to account for 35% of the downstream demand for optical fibers and cables [4][34]. Market Trends - The optical fiber market is expected to stabilize and recover, driven by the demand from data centers and DCI (Data Center Interconnect) applications, with the market for AI-driven optical fibers projected to reach $2.1 billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of approximately 73% from 2024 to 2027 [12][34]. - The supply side is characterized by a cautious expansion attitude among manufacturers, with current global optical fiber production capacity estimated at around 850 million core kilometers, which may fall short of annual demand [35][36]. Emerging Fiber Types - New types of optical fibers, such as G.654.E and hollow-core fibers, are expected to see rapid growth due to their advantages in low latency and long-distance transmission, making them suitable for DCI applications [20][29]. - Specialty fibers are gaining traction as AI-driven computing clusters expand, with manufacturers accelerating research and development in this area to meet the increasing demand for high-performance communication [22][31]. Competitive Landscape - Leading companies with stable production capacity and advanced technology are expected to benefit first from the rising demand in the data center sector, as the supply landscape remains relatively stable in the short term [36][37]. - The market for specialty optical fibers is more concentrated than that for standard telecommunications fibers, allowing leading manufacturers to capture a larger share of the value [34][36].

12月22日，算力硬件股高开高走，长飞光纤（601869）实现4天3板。公司发布股票交易风险提示，截至 12月22日，公司A股股票滚动市盈率约为169倍，存在市盈率过高的风险。 公告显示，长飞光纤股票于12月17日至12月19日连续三个交易日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过20%，且 12月22日以涨停价收盘，收于127.05元/股。 近日，有分析称行业需求趋势向好。中信建投（601066）报告指出，今年三季度以来，中国市场光纤价 格持续上涨，反应需求向好、整体供应偏紧。海外需求旺盛，出口表现强劲，也反映了全球光纤光缆市 场的旺盛需求。考虑到全球光学模组需求量在2026年仍将大幅增长，则对应光纤需求也将随之增长。 今年9月接受机构调研时，长飞光纤曾透露，在空芯光纤领域，公司具备领先的制造工艺。不过，空芯 光纤作为行业前沿产品，其应用目前仍处于早期阶段，尚未形成规模销售、尚未形成稳定的价格及利润 水平，而后续业务发展也有待于产业链的进一步成熟。目前，空芯光纤相关业务尚未对公司财务数据产 生明显影响。 根据光通信行业权威第三方市场分析机构英国商品研究所（CRU）发布的报告，长飞光纤在预制棒、 光纤、光缆的市场份额从20 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Yongding Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - **Global Fiber Demand**: Significant growth in global fiber demand is expected in 2025, with domestic non-operator market prices for ordinary fiber rising from 15-16 RMB at the beginning of the year to 20-22 RMB by year-end, driven mainly by data center and trunk fiber network construction in mainland China [2][4]. - **Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War**: The war has greatly increased demand for fiber drones, which is expected to remain high even if hostilities cease, as military stockpiles will likely retain a certain number of these drones, leading to stable long-term demand [2][6][10]. Company Performance - **Yongding's Revenue and Profit**: In 2025, Yongding Co., Ltd. exceeded expectations in revenue and profit within the rod and cable sector, increasing production capacity from 300 tons at the beginning of the year to approximately 450 tons by December, with plans for further increases in 2026 [2][7]. - **Product Development**: Multi-mode fiber has been successfully developed and is in small-scale commercial use, while hollow fiber and 654B fiber are expected to undergo testing in Q1 2026 [2][7]. Price and Supply Forecast - **Price Predictions**: Ordinary non-operator fiber prices are expected to increase by 10%-20% in 2026, potentially reaching 23-25 RMB. Other product types, including A2 fiber, are also anticipated to see price increases [2][8][21]. - **Supply Chain Recovery**: The recovery of supply chains is cautiously optimistic, with slow recovery of production capacity from competitors like Futong and European brands seeking OEM partnerships in China [2][8]. Product Capacity and Competition - **Capacity Utilization**: Different types of fibers impact overall capacity differently. For instance, producing 654B fiber consumes more raw materials, leading to actual usable capacity being less than theoretical values. The demand for drone-related products has created competitive pressure on existing systems [2][9]. - **Tight Supply Conditions**: The supply of 657A2 and multi-mode fibers is under pressure due to competition from data centers and drones, with factory orders currently extending to 45 days [3][11][17]. Technological Developments - **Laser Chip Expansion**: Yongding has established a presence in the optoelectronics sector with laser chips and plans to expand production capacity significantly, with expectations of reaching tens of millions of effective chips supplied in 2026 [3][22][29]. - **Future Trends in Optical Communication**: The optical communication industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by AI, with increasing demand for optical modules and tight supply of optical chips. New technologies are expected to further propel market growth [28]. Challenges and Market Dynamics - **International Market Entry**: Domestic companies face challenges entering overseas markets, particularly in North America, where demand is surging. Some companies are using indirect trade routes to access these markets [19]. - **Price Differences**: There are significant price differences between domestic and international brands, with international brands like Corning charging substantially more for their products [13][14]. Conclusion Yongding Co., Ltd. is well-positioned for growth in the optical fiber and laser chip markets, with strong demand driven by technological advancements and geopolitical factors. The company’s strategic plans for capacity expansion and product development indicate a positive outlook for the coming years.

Summary of Fiber Optic Cable Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The fiber optic cable market in 2025 is showing signs of differentiation, with operator procurement prices decreasing by approximately 20% year-on-year, while prices in the scattered fiber market have been rising since May, driven mainly by demand from AI data centers and military special fibers, although overall incremental growth remains limited [1][4]. Key Market Trends - China's total fiber consumption has decreased by 7%-10% over the past two years, with a narrowing decline to about 1% in 2025. In contrast, the North American market is benefiting from AI demand, with growth rates approaching 20% [1][5]. - The profit margins for single-mode ordinary fibers fluctuate between 20%-30%, while special and multi-mode fibers can exceed 50%, significantly contributing to manufacturers' profits [1][6]. Price Stability and Demand - After September, the prices of common cables stabilized, with increased demand for multi-mode and special fibers improving supply-demand balance and enhancing industry premiums. The construction of AI-driven data centers has a significant positive impact on both North American and domestic markets [1][8]. - The demand for military special fibers may weaken due to changes in international circumstances, necessitating a cautious approach [1][9]. Company Insights - Major manufacturers with substantial fiber rod capacity and strong PCVD process capabilities, such as Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company (YOFC), FiberHome, Hengtong, and Zhongtian, are recommended for investment. Overseas companies like Corning and Fujikura are also highlighted [2][13]. - Chinese leading manufacturers are cautious about capacity expansion due to past price wars, indicating room for improvement in capacity utilization. Corning's reduction in supply to other regions may provide more order opportunities for Chinese companies [1][10]. Future Price Trends - The current price increase trend is expected to be sustainable at least on a quarterly basis, but long-term observations are needed regarding the results of the upcoming Chinese telecom procurement, which will significantly impact operator procurement price recovery and large manufacturers' profit forecasts [1][11]. Technological Developments - New technologies, such as hollow fibers, are anticipated to drive structural growth. Although currently expensive and limited in commercialization, a decrease in costs could enhance their market prospects [1][12]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on large manufacturers with significant fiber rod production capacity and the ability to produce multi-mode and special fibers, as they are likely to benefit the most from the current upward cycle [2][13].

亨通光电 20251222 摘要 全球光纤需求紧张，受益于国内外市场共振，国内建设加速及海外骨干 网、城域网和接入网建设提速，国际市场涨幅显著，预计未来几年 AR 技术普及将持续推动需求增长。 国内运营商招标量虽持平，但新八纵八横项目带动超集总光纤需求，行 业整体向好。光纤供给侧，国际厂商如康宁、普瑞斯曼及国内企业均在 扩展特种光纤，影响传统 652D 光纤产能。 光纤价格上涨，国内涨幅约 10%，美国市场 652D 价格远高于国内。预 计未来供需关系变化将推动价格进一步上涨。疫情后国内中小产能出清， 头部企业如亨通关注特种光纤发展。 亨通光电常规光纤产能稳定，特种光纤投入大，如 G6,541 超低损耗光 纤、多芯空心激光等。新光纤中心预计明年一二季度释放产能，光纤产 能扩充周期约 6-12 个月。 亨通光电在多芯光纤领域领先，价格约为 G652D 的 10 倍，已获联通和 移动认证。公司今年以来满产，特种光纤中心投资及新增产能信息将在 明年 4 月公布。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）二季度以来，国内 AI 的发展对光通信行业产生了哪些影响？ 从今年（2025 年）二季度开始，国内 AI 的发展显著带动了全光 ...

12月22日上榜的成交活跃股中，长飞光纤光缆通过港股通渠道成交金额为32.52亿港元，净买入金额为 4.25亿港元，不仅如此，该股已连续4日出现成交净买入，累计净买入金额为13.83亿港元，其间股价上 涨49.95%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 长飞光纤光缆获南向资金连续4天净买入，累计净买入金额为13.83亿港元，股价累计上涨49.95%。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，12月22日港股通（包括沪市港股通及深市港股通）成交活跃股合计成交 315.99亿港元，净买入金额为17.47亿港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for optical fibers and cables is expected to be driven by the construction of AI data centers and DCI interconnections, with a significant increase in global demand anticipated due to the ongoing evolution of AI large model training and application deployment [4] - The supply side faces challenges as the production cycle for optical preforms is long and the manufacturing process is complex, leading to potential short-term supply tightness [5] - The report highlights a potential supply-demand imbalance in the short term, with a recommendation to focus on investment opportunities in the optical fiber and cable sector [6] Demand Side Summary - The demand for optical fibers and cables is expected to grow due to the increasing need for high-density and low-power data transmission in data centers, driven by AI applications [4] - The G.654.E optical fiber is noted for its ability to enhance transmission distance and system capacity, contributing to the development of more efficient long-distance high-bandwidth networks [4] - New technologies such as hollow-core fibers are being actively developed, which may lead to increased demand in the long term due to their advantages in low latency and low loss [4] Supply Side Summary - The production of optical preforms is characterized by a long expansion cycle and high technical requirements, which may lead to a tight supply situation in the short term [5] - The report cites predictions from the Asia-Pacific Optical Fiber and Cable Industry Association and the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, estimating that global demand for optical fibers and cables could reach hundreds of millions of core kilometers by 2025 [5] - Prices for optical fibers have shown a significant rebound since May, indicating a positive outlook for demand and pricing driven by AI data center construction [5] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the optical fiber and cable sector, specifically highlighting companies such as Hengtong Optic-Electric and Zhongtian Technology as primary targets, with additional beneficiaries including Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable, Yongding Co., FiberHome Technologies, and TeFa Information [6]

| | 沪股通 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 净买入额(亿) | 成交额 | 名称 | | 阿里巴巴-W | 0.8% | -10.81 | 42.74 Z | 中芯国际 | | 中芯国际 | 5.9% | 2.59 | 34.72亿 | 阿里巴巴-W | | 小米集团-W | -1.8% | 3.05 | 26.23 Z | 腾讯控股 | | 腾讯控股 | 0.1% | 4.27 | 23.47 Z | 小米集团-W | | 长飞光纤光缆 | 11.2% | 3.11 | 18.81 Z | 长飞光纤光缆 | | 中国海洋石油 | 2.1% | 0.65 | 12.19亿 | 中国移动 | | 中国移动 | -0.2% | -4.41 | 10.78 Z | 中国海洋石油 | | 华虹半导体 | 5.2% | -0.24 | 9.49 Z | 美团-W | | 泡泡玛特 | 4.6% | -0.25 | 9.48 Z | 华虹半导体 | | 工商银行 | 0.2% | 1.23 | 9.44 Z | 石药集团 | 12月22日，南下 ...

北水净买入最多的个股是中芯国际(00981)、小米集团-W(01810)、腾讯(00700)。北水净卖出最多的个股 是中国移动(00941)、阿里巴巴-W(09988)。 港股通(沪)活跃成交股 港股通(深)活跃成交股 （原标题：北水动向|北水成交净买入31.25亿 内资全天加仓中芯国际(00981)超7亿港元） 智通财经APP获悉，12月22日港股市场，北水成交净买入31.25亿港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净卖出8.24 亿港元，港股通(深)成交净买入39.49亿港元。 北水加仓芯片股。中芯国际(00981)、华虹半导体(01347)分别获净买入7.3亿、200万港元。消息面上， 安捷利美维电子有限责任公司的工商变更引发关注——原股东安捷利电子实业有限公司正式退出，同时 国家大基金三期旗下国投集新股权投资基金、国新发展投资管理有限公司，以及广州产业投资控股集团 有限公司等新股东加入。这标志着国家大基金三期落子IC载板领域。 工商银行(01398)获净买入1.22亿港元。消息面上，中信证券预计，2026年银行业净息差降幅收窄至4bps 左右，为2022年以来首次年度息差降幅在低个位数水平。受益于此，上市银行全年 ...