《证券日报》记者根据沪深北交易所数据统计，截至4月30日，沪深北证券交易所共计有5413家上市公 司公布了2024年年度报告，全年实现营业收入合计约72万亿元。 2024年，在一揽子增量政策的有力支撑下，A股上市公司业绩整体稳中有进，上市公司结构不断优化， 回报能力稳步提升，高质量发展取得新成效。 整体业绩稳中有进 2024年度，A股上市公司业绩稳中有进。 从板块来看，上海证券交易所市场(以下简称"沪市")主板公司合计实现营业收入49.57万亿元；科创板公 司共实现营业收入14221.70亿元；深圳证券交易所市场(以下简称"深市")上市公司2024年合计实现营业 收入20.82万亿元；北京证券交易所(以下简称"北交所")265家公司共实现营业收入1808.45亿元，平均实 现营业收入6.82亿元，与2023年基本持平。 以旧换新政策发力，汽车、家电、数码产品迎来"焕新潮"。沪市家电行业全年净利润增长5%，其中四 季度净利润增长16%。深市大消费行业合计营业收入56831.01亿元，同比增长3.75%；净利润3264.57亿 元，同比增长17.62%。 从盈利情况来看，沪市主板公司净利润4.35万亿元，同比增长 ...

不过，每天这么一点点往下掉，都快成圆弧顶了。市场里的资金，场外的还在观望，要是节后没啥消息刺激，增量资金也不来，估计节后回来得去补3319那 个缺口了。接下来选股，除了躲开那些有问题的股票，当下的业绩都不太重要了，关键得看未来的成长性预期，还有产业的发展趋势。这才是重点！ 二、险资再出手，200亿新基金来了。 A股的长线增量资金来了，两大险资这次又掏了200亿。之前不是刚弄了个500亿的私募嘛，这么快就建仓完了？现在又追加200亿，这力度确实挺猛的。 不过，这次他们明确说要投中证A500成分股里的大型上市公司A+H股。我觉得吧，险资投资A股可以更灵活些，现在太看重股息了，对成长股的支持还不 够，要是能多支持一下成长股！ 一、证监会突然调整休市安排，五一节假期从5月1日（周四）至5月5日（周一）放假！ 昨天最后一个交易日，两市成交额勉强破了万亿，达到10221亿，大盘指数跌了那么一点点，0.05%，收盘在3286。本来指数压力挺大的，但也没闹出什么 大动静，大盘还是稳稳当当的，四平八稳。 三、盘面比昨天好一些，虽然量能还在萎缩，但依然在万亿之上。 最重要的是银行股等高股息板块调整，而题材股再次活跃。虽然指数是绿 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing System Signal (Wind All A Index Long-term and Short-term Moving Averages) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the distance between the 120-day long-term moving average and the 20-day short-term moving average of the Wind All A Index to identify the overall market environment and potential trend shifts[2][9]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the 20-day moving average (short-term) and the 120-day moving average (long-term) of the Wind All A Index. - Compute the relative distance between the two moving averages: $$ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA}}{\text{120-day MA}} $$ - A negative distance indicates the short-term average is below the long-term average, signaling a potential downtrend. Conversely, a positive distance suggests an uptrend[2][9]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies the market's transition to a downtrend when the distance narrows and becomes negative, providing actionable insights for timing decisions[2][9]. 2. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies medium-term industry allocation opportunities by focusing on sectors with turnaround potential or strong growth drivers[2][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Analyze industry-specific metrics and trends to identify sectors with "distressed reversal" characteristics or those benefiting from structural growth themes. - Recommended sectors include: - Healthcare (e.g., Hang Seng Medical) - Low-valued sectors like new energy and consumer-related industries - Technology sectors driven by domestic substitution, such as AI chips and information innovation (Xinchuang)[2][10]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to identifying sectors with medium-term growth potential, aligning with macroeconomic and structural trends[2][10]. 3. Model Name: TWO BETA Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying high-growth sectors, particularly in technology, by leveraging beta factors[2][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Analyze beta coefficients of various sectors to identify those with higher sensitivity to market movements. - Emphasize sectors like technology, including AI chips and information innovation, which are expected to outperform due to domestic substitution trends[2][10]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively highlights high-growth sectors, particularly in technology, aligning with market trends and policy support[2][10]. 4. Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines optimal equity allocation levels based on valuation and trend signals[3][10]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Use valuation metrics such as PE and PB ratios of the Wind All A Index: - PE is at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate valuation level. - PB is at the 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low valuation level. - Combine valuation insights with trend signals (e.g., moving average distances) to recommend a 50% equity allocation for absolute return products[3][10]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced approach to equity allocation, considering both valuation and trend factors[3][10]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing System Signal - **Distance between 20-day and 120-day moving averages**: -3.08% (indicating a narrowing gap and a potential downtrend)[2][9][13] - **Profitability Effect**: -1.7% (indicating negative short-term market sentiment)[2][10][13] 2. Position Management Model - **PE Ratio**: 50th percentile (moderate valuation level)[3][10] - **PB Ratio**: 20th percentile (relatively low valuation level)[3][10] - **Recommended Equity Allocation**: 50% for absolute return products[3][10] 3. Industry Allocation Model - **Recommended Sectors**: - Healthcare (e.g., Hang Seng Medical) - New energy and consumer-related industries - Technology sectors (e.g., AI chips, information innovation)[2][10][13] 4. TWO BETA Model - **Recommended Sectors**: - Technology sectors, including AI chips and information innovation, driven by domestic substitution trends[2][10][13]

首先，贸易冲突的进展仍主导市场短期运行。上周贸易冲突虽然没有明显升级，但是当前高额的关 税，使得全球贸易面临重大挑战，投资者的关注重心逐渐转向其对实体经济的影响。当前国际环境下， 国内积极的宏观经济政策如何进一步推进，成为市场关注的焦点和投资线索。与此同时，国内一季度的 经济数据和上市公司的年报、季报正在进入密集披露期，投资者需要密切关注具体数据是否能够达到市 场的预期。此外，上周美国人工智能芯片的出口政策有进一步收紧的趋势，科技领域的竞争和突围势在 必行，国内科技行业的进展也将很大程度上影响市场的风险偏好。 上周，两市震荡分化，成交大幅萎缩。沪指延续了上周的反弹，总体呈现继续修复的特征。但深圳 市场表现偏弱，周一开盘几乎就是最高点，随后一路小幅回落。量能方面，上周未能延续上周的放量格 局，量能出现了明显萎缩。上周市场热点主要集中在银行地产等低估值行业以及大消费行业。投资风格 方面，大盘蓝筹明显强于中小盘和科技风格。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指在周线箱体中轨线找到支撑，正在展开超跌反弹。沪指于三月中下旬，在 去年四季度的密集成交区间遇到较强技术阻力，开始进入调整。最终在周线的箱体中轨线附近找到支撑 并展开反弹。目 ...