证券代码：600803 证券简称：新奥股份 公告编号：临 2026-021 | 产品 | 计量单位 | 2025 | 年 | | 年 2024 | | | 同比增减幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 第四季度 | 月累计 1-12 | 第四季度 | 1-12 | 月累计 | 第四季度 | 月累计 1-12 | | 平台交易气 销售量 | 百万立方米 | 1,475 | | 5,425 | 1,506 | 5,568 | -2.1% | -2.6% | | 天然气零售气 销售量 | 百万立方米 | 7,416 | 26,606 | | 7,381 | 26,200 | 0.5% | 1.5% | | 接收站接卸量 | 千吨 | 660 | | 2,640 | 678 | 2,412 | -2.7% | 9.5% | 一、主要运营数据 新奥天然气股份有限公司 关于 2025 年年度主要运营数据的自愿性公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][18] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 19.83 billion RMB in 2025, a decrease of 7.21% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.21% to 1.83 billion RMB, which was below expectations [8] - The increase in electricity generation effectively offset the impact of declining electricity prices, with total electricity generation reaching 15.21 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.71% [8] - The company’s average on-grid electricity price decreased by 0.02 RMB/kWh to 0.41 RMB/kWh in 2025, leading to a mixed performance in the renewable energy sector [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.20 RMB per share, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 49.42%, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.5% based on the closing price [8] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026 and 2027 has been adjusted downwards to 2.38 billion RMB and 2.73 billion RMB, respectively, with a new estimate for 2028 at 2.91 billion RMB [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 19.83 billion RMB - 2025: 20.72 billion RMB - 2026: 23.34 billion RMB - 2027: 25.66 billion RMB [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: - 2024: 1.83 billion RMB - 2025: 2.38 billion RMB - 2026: 2.73 billion RMB - 2027: 2.91 billion RMB [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.40 RMB in 2025 to 0.65 RMB in 2028 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global financial and commodity markets, including overnight market trends, important macro - economic and geopolitical news, and data on various futures and financial instruments. It reflects the complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, supply - demand dynamics, and central bank policies on market performance. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 3.85% at $4376.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 6.22% at $68.12 per ounce [4]. - U.S. oil and Brent oil futures rose, with the U.S. oil main contract up 3.84% at $93.79 per barrel and Brent oil main contract up 4.15% at $101.3 per barrel [5]. - Most London base metals fell, except for LME aluminum which rose 0.37% to $3254.5 per ton [5]. Important News Macro News - U.S. President Trump may visit China in mid - May, and China and the U.S. are in communication about it [8]. - The U.S. Department of Defense is formulating a military plan for a "decisive strike" against Iran, with multiple options [8]. - Shanghai International Energy Exchange sets trading limits and margin ratios for the EC2703 contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures [8]. - Trump postponed the planned strike on Iran's energy infrastructure by 10 days, providing a short - term respite for the global energy market [9]. - The possibility of a cease - fire between the U.S. and Iran remains low as their demands are beyond each other's acceptance [11]. - Iran released 10 oil tankers [11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - China's urea enterprise inventory decreased by 13.40% week - on - week to 70.05 tons on March 25, 2026, due to rising industrial demand [13]. - China's liquefied gas sample enterprise storage capacity rate dropped to 24.92% as of March 26, 2026 [13]. - Singapore's fuel oil, light distillate, and medium distillate inventories all increased in the week ending March 25 [13]. - Glass enterprise inventory reduction slowed down, with the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises at 7362.2 million heavy boxes as of March 26, a 1.09% week - on - week decrease [14]. - U.S. natural gas inventory decreased by 540 billion cubic feet to 18290 billion cubic feet in the week ending March 20, 2026, a 5.2% year - on - year increase [16]. Metal Futures - ANZ predicts that the aluminum price will peak at $3600 per ton in Q3 2026, and about 800 - 1000 million tons of production will be affected in 2026 due to supply disruptions in the Middle East [18]. - Nickel Industries Limited's Indonesian mine suspended operations after an accident [18]. - Turkey's central bank sold about 22 tons of gold and conducted about 31 tons of gold swap transactions last week, with its gold reserve dropping to 771.8 tons [18]. Black - Series Futures - In February 2026, China's steel exports increased by 1.1% month - on - month to 783.8 million tons, and imports decreased by 19.6% month - on - month to 36.9 million tons [22]. - As of the week ending March 26, 2026, rebar production decreased by 2.69% week - on - week, while apparent demand increased by 8.30% [22]. - An Australian mining company reduced operations due to diesel supply constraints and a tropical cyclone [23]. - HeSteel Group's silicon - manganese procurement volume in March 2026 was 5100 tons [23]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in China was 21 yuan/ton [23]. Agricultural Futures - From March 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 11.21% month - on - month [26]. - U.S. soybean and corn inventories are expected to reach multi - year highs in 2026 [26]. - U.S. soybean and corn planting areas in 2026 are expected to change compared to previous years [26]. - U.S. soybean export net sales increased in the week ending March 19, 2026 [27]. - The number of un - priced sell orders for ICE cotton futures decreased by 1606 hands as of March 20 [27]. Financial Markets Finance - A - shares declined with reduced trading volume, and the Hang Seng Index also fell [29]. - Some companies' first - quarter report disclosure times were announced [29]. - A company is considering an IPO in Hong Kong and seeking up to $1 billion in financing [30]. - The management and custody fees of a Hong Kong - stock - connect Internet ETF were reduced [30]. Industry - The first industry standard for embodied intelligence was released and will be implemented on June 1, 2026 [32]. - AI and robot program traffic has exceeded human user traffic [32]. - Domestic airline fuel surcharges will increase on April 5, 2026 [32]. - Shanghai's new - home transactions increased after the "Shanghai Seven" real - estate policy [32]. - Guangdong Province optimized housing provident fund policies [33]. Overseas - Trump mentioned Iran's "gift" and the option to control Iranian oil [34]. - Iran is committed to ending the war and has taken measures to ensure the passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz [36]. - Russia hopes the Middle - East conflict will end in the coming weeks [36]. - The OECD predicts global and U.S. economic growth rates [36]. - U.S. initial jobless claims increased, and continuing claims decreased [37]. - The European Parliament voted to support a conditional implementation of the EU - U.S. trade agreement [37]. - The European Central Bank may consider raising interest rates if inflation soars [38]. - Germany's GDP growth may decline if the Middle - East conflict persists [38]. International Stock Markets - U.S. and European stock markets declined, and most Asia - Pacific stock markets also fell [39][40]. - SpaceX may list with a high proportion of shares allocated to individual investors [40]. - Wall Street's bonus pool reached a record high in 2025 [40]. Commodities - Trading limits and margin ratios for the EC2703 contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures were set [42]. - Precious metals fell, while oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions [42]. - Most base metals declined [43]. - Iraq had to cut oil production due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [43]. - Turkey's central bank sold and swapped gold [45]. Bonds - China's inter - bank bond market heated up, and South Korea will repurchase bonds to stabilize the market [46]. - U.S. Treasury yields rose [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore and offshore RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar index rose [47]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data include UK consumer confidence, China's industrial enterprise profits, etc. [50] - Upcoming events include speeches by central bank officials, conferences, and corporate earnings reports [52]

Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Energy reported a 9.4% year-on-year increase in natural gas sales volume to 59.26 billion cubic meters, despite a decline in retail gas sales for residential and commercial use [2][3] Group 1: Natural Gas Sales Performance - Total natural gas sales volume increased by 9.4% to 59.26 billion cubic meters, with retail gas volume growing by 2.3% to 33.51 billion cubic meters and distribution and trading gas volume rising by 20.2% to 25.75 billion cubic meters [2] - Industrial gas sales increased by 6.2% to 26.05 billion cubic meters, while residential gas sales decreased by 4.4% to 3.45 billion cubic meters, commercial gas sales fell by 2.3% to 2.92 billion cubic meters, and gas station sales dropped by 33.5% to 1.09 billion cubic meters [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported a 10.3% year-on-year decline in net profit to 5.346 billion RMB, which was 12% lower than market expectations [3] - Core profit decreased by 6.9% to 5.923 billion RMB, with the pre-tax profit from the natural gas sales business falling by 17.6% to 6.756 billion RMB [3] - The average unit gross profit decreased by 0.02 RMB to 0.45 RMB per cubic meter, while competitors saw an increase in unit gross profit [3] Group 3: Operational Metrics - The total gasification and loading volume at two LNG receiving stations increased by 3.7% to 16.527 billion cubic meters, with average utilization rate rising by 3.2 percentage points to 90.8% [2] - Processing volume at 14 LNG plants grew by 5.3% to 3.737 billion cubic meters, with average utilization rate increasing by 3.2 percentage points to 67.2%, although revenue fell by 11.8% to 3.88 billion RMB [2] - LPG sales volume increased by 6.3% to 6.15 million tons, but revenue decreased by 2% to 25.091 billion RMB [2] Group 4: Cash Flow and Debt Metrics - Operating cash flow for the year was 12.585 billion RMB, a slight decline of 1.2% year-on-year [2] - Capital expenditure decreased by 4.6% to 6.257 billion RMB, while the net debt ratio fell by 2.7 percentage points to 18.8% [2] - Average debt cost decreased to 2.54% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Kunlun Energy's retail natural gas sales increased by 2.3% last year, with industrial user sales growing by 6.2%, while residential user sales declined by 4.4% [2] - The utilization rate of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) processing plant improved to 67.2%, and the pre-tax profit doubled, with the LNG receiving station utilization rate rising to 90.8% [2] - The company expects retail natural gas sales to grow by approximately 3% this year, with LPG sales projected at 5.8 million tons and LNG receiving station utilization guidance set at 85% to 90% [2] Group 2 - UBS reported that Kunlun Energy's core profit fell by 7% year-on-year to 5.92 billion RMB, but the dividend payout ratio increased by 8 percentage points to 51% [3] - The company indicated that the dividend payout ratio for 2026 to 2028 will not be less than 50%, with total annual dividends expected to be no less than the levels of 2025 [3] - UBS adjusted the company's earnings per share forecast down by 3% to 5% for this year to 2028, raising the target price from 9.7 HKD to 10.7 HKD, while maintaining a "buy" rating, equivalent to a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Kunlun Energy announced a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase 900,000 shares at a total cost of HKD 6.7361 million, with a price range of HKD 7.39 to HKD 7.68 per share [1][2]. Group 2 - The share buyback is scheduled to take place on March 26, 2026, indicating the company's strategy to enhance shareholder value [1][2]. - The current stock price of Kunlun Energy shows a decrease of 2.11% [2].

2025 年核心利润基本符合市场预期 公司公布2025 年业绩：收入1,940 亿元，YoY+3.7%；归母净利润53.5 亿元，YoY-10.3%，核心利润59.2 亿元，YoY-6.9%，2025 年核心利润基本符合市场预期，我们认为公司核心利润下滑主因：1）2025 年 中国天然气市场供需宽松，天然气分销与贸易业务盈利有所下降；2）政府补贴和净利息收入同比有所 降低。 机构：中金公司 研究员：严蓓娜/李唐懿/裘孝锋 业绩回顾 2025 年公司天然气总销售量593 亿方，YoY+9.4%，其中零售气量335 亿方，YoY+2.3%，零售气价差 0.45 元/方，YoY-0.02 元/方；LNG 接收站平均负荷率90.8%，YoY+3.2 ppt。 公司拟派发末期股息0.1498 元/股，全年派息总额0.3158 元/股，同比持平。公司同步公告2026-2028 年 股息分配计划，2026-2028 年公司派息率将不低于50%且绝对股息额将不低于2025 年实际分配额。 发展趋势 勘探与生产业务有望支撑2026 年盈利表现。公司指引2026 年原油权益销售量800 万桶，据中金公司大 宗组，若中东原油贸易中 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish stance on core spreads to mitigate upside risks due to high volatility in the front end of the market [1][12]. Core Insights - The daily flow through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from 20 million barrels to 1 million barrels, creating a supply gap of 19 million barrels per day, which can only be offset by policies managing 4-5 million barrels [1]. - The price of Dubai crude has surged to $130 per barrel due to Middle Eastern supply shortages and increased near-term procurement demand from Asian refineries [1]. - Qatar's LNG supply has been impacted, leading to a projected long-term capacity loss of 3% globally, with net supply losses expected to reach 26 million tons per year by 2026 [1][13]. - The TTF gas price forecast for Q2 has been raised to €72 per MWh, with extreme scenarios potentially reaching €100 [1][13]. - The U.S. government is managing expectations through social media to prevent speculative investments from exacerbating oil prices, with current speculative positions lower than during previous crises [1][10]. Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact - The current Middle Eastern situation represents a fundamental change, introducing a permanent risk premium in the energy market due to underestimations of Iran's regime stability [3]. - Key signals to monitor include the internal stability of the Iranian regime and potential shifts in leadership dynamics, which could indicate changes in policy direction [4]. Energy Supply Dynamics - The report highlights that the ongoing supply shock is unprecedented, with the potential for significant demand destruction needed to rebalance the market [7][19]. - The report emphasizes that the current market is not adequately pricing the risks associated with energy infrastructure and the potential for prolonged supply losses [19][20]. Market Strategies - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on core spreads, as the volatility in the front end is high, and the risk-reward ratio is favorable [12]. - Producers are advised to sell call options in the back end starting from the second half of 2026 to capitalize on high volatility and time value [12]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that energy security concerns may lead to a structural shift in energy production, with a potential move away from natural gas towards coal and renewable energy sources [2][18]. - Despite short-term supply disruptions, the long-term outlook for LNG remains bearish, with expectations of oversupply persisting beyond 2028-2029 [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The G7 European member states have warned that the war between the US and Israel against Iran is having a "catastrophic impact" on the global economy [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The conflict has led to a significant increase in international energy prices since the military actions began in late February [4] - Approximately 30% to 40% of refining capacity in the Gulf region has been damaged or destroyed, with about 17% of natural gas production capacity also affected, leading to a recovery period of several years [6] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has severely restricted global energy supplies, marking a "critical moment" according to EU leaders [5] Group 2: Diplomatic Efforts - European leaders are expected to urge the US to seek a de-escalation path with Iran during the upcoming G7 meeting [2] - The G7 meeting will include representatives from the EU and guest representatives from countries such as Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, South Korea, and Ukraine, indicating a broader international concern [7] Group 3: Military Developments - The US is reportedly increasing its military presence in the Middle East, with thousands of soldiers being deployed for potential further military actions [9] - There are indications that the US Defense Department is developing a "final strike" military option against Iran, which may involve ground troops and large-scale airstrikes [9][10]

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 公用事业 2026 年 03 月 26 日 昆仑能源 (00135) ——工业用气保持高增 新市场打开成长空间 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com | 市场数据： | 2026 年 03 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 7.60 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8582.74 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 8.83/6.80 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 658.07 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 8,658.80 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8809 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -16% -6% 4% 14% HSCEI 昆仑能源 资料来源：Bloomberg 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 20 ...