——从关税冲击到降息迷途，全球市场屏息以待 一份凌晨发布的会议纪要，撕开了美联储面对的两难困局：一面是关税助推的通胀火焰，一面是就业市 场的降温预警，而夹在中间的，是全球资本市场的剧烈波动。 北京时间5月29日凌晨2点，美联储公布了5月货币政策会议纪要，首次将"关税冲击"纳入核心议题，并 罕见警告未来可能面临通胀与失业"双升"的艰难权衡。这份被市场称为"风暴预警"的文件，不仅揭示了 美国经济政策的内部分歧，更暴露了全球金融体系在政治不确定性下的脆弱性。 一、会议纪要核心信号：三重压力下的"政策悬崖" 1. 通胀顽固性远超预期 长期通胀预期脱锚风险：核心PCE通胀率仍达2.6%，美联储预计2027年前难回2%目标，滞胀阴影笼 罩。 关税成为新推手：几乎所有与会官员指出，特朗普政府加征的关税正被企业转嫁给消费者，甚至非关税 影响企业也借机提价，导致通胀"向上漂移风险加剧"。 2. 就业市场韧性面临考验 尽管当前失业率稳定在4.2%，但企业因贸易不确定性已开始冻结招聘，制造业、农业等关税敏感行业 首当其冲。纪要直言"劳动力市场疲软风险正在累积"。 3. 金融稳定警报拉响 美元避险地位动摇：长期美债收益率上升与美元贬 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体微跌，截止到收盘，还在5.1星。 沪深300微跌，小盘股下跌略多。 遇到市场下跌的时候，红利等价值风格相对坚挺，略微上涨。 必需消费通常受经济周期的影响相对小一些。 上周港股上涨超2.5%，港股科技指数上涨超5%。 遇到回调的时候港股一般波动比A股大，反弹的时候弹性也会更高。 1. 有朋友问，消费类指数有哪些呢？ 消费行业，主要分为必需消费和可选消费。 （1）必需消费 主要是食品饮料，包括酒、乳制品、肉制品等。 A股对应的指数，就是中证消费。 中证消费，主要投资沪深300、中证500中的大中盘必需消费股票。 成长风格下跌。 港股最近比A股表现好一些。 最近比较受关注的关税，影响全球股票市场出现较大波动。 但必需消费因为主营业务在内地，不太受关税提升的影响，最近3个月中证消费指数连续三个月上涨。 必需消费行业下面，还有食品饮料指数、白酒指数等。 （2）可选消费 主要是汽车、家电、传媒娱乐等。 像一些新能源汽车，属于可选消费；游戏、广告属于传媒娱乐。 这里面比较有意思的是，很多港股科技股，按照行业划分，也属于消费行业。 例如腾讯，属于互联网科技公司。 但主营业务 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on Japanese consumer companies with optimistic profit growth prospects, including Asics, Pan Pacific International Holdings, Fast Retailing, and Asahi Group [6]. Core Insights - The Japanese consumer confidence index fell for the fourth consecutive month to 34.1 in March, the lowest since March 2023, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment amid rising inflation [2][8]. - Essential consumer goods saw a surge in stockpiling due to anticipated price hikes in April, leading to a significant increase in sales, particularly in beer, which saw a year-on-year increase of over 30% [3][14]. - Discretionary consumption faced a slowdown, with mixed performance among companies; brands like Salia, Uniqlo, and Muji managed to attract consumers despite the overall decline in demand [3][5]. Macro Overview - Inflation in Japan is rising, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 3.6% year-on-year in March, while core CPI (excluding fresh food) rose by 3.2% [2][10]. - Real wages fell by 1.5% year-on-year in February, reflecting that wage growth is not keeping pace with inflation [2][8]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 4.2% year-on-year in March, marking the highest level since 1980 [12]. Essential Consumption - Retail sales for essential goods increased primarily due to higher average transaction values, with notable growth in companies like PPIH (+5.9%), 7-Eleven (+1.0%), and Aeon (+2.9%) [4][16]. - The stockpiling trend was driven by consumers preparing for upcoming price increases, significantly boosting sales in food and daily necessities [3][14]. Discretionary Consumption - Discretionary spending showed varied performance, with restaurants like Salia and McDonald's increasing prices due to rising raw material costs, leading to year-on-year sales growth of 13.9% and 11.0%, respectively [5][26]. - Department store sales declined for the second consecutive month, with a year-on-year drop of 2.8% in March, influenced by a strong previous year's performance [33][37]. - The duty-free sales sector experienced its first negative growth in 36 months, reflecting a broader trend of reduced spending on high-priced items due to the appreciating yen and economic uncertainties [5][37]. Company Performance - Asahi and Kirin reported significant revenue increases in March, with Asahi's beer sales up 37% and Kirin's up 30%, driven by stockpiling ahead of price hikes [20][23]. - Uniqlo's same-store sales rose by 11.5% in March, benefiting from strong demand for seasonal products and effective marketing strategies [30][35]. - The performance of specialty stores like Muji and Nitori varied, with Muji seeing a 20.5% increase in same-store sales while Nitori experienced an 8.6% decline [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][15] Core Views - The company's profit meets expectations, driven by new products and online channel expansion, with category expansion poised for future growth [3][13] - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 26.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit of 6.34 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year [13][15] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8.60 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 75.2% [13] Financial Summary - Revenue and net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 29.68 billion yuan, 33.01 billion yuan, and 36.85 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.3%, 11.2%, and 11.6% [5][15] - The company’s gross margin improved to 47% in 2024, an increase of 2.27 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material prices [14] - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 0.66 percentage points to 23.63% [14] Product and Channel Performance - In 2024, revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, oyster sauce, and other categories increased by 8.9%, 10%, 8.6%, and 16.8% respectively [13] - Online sales grew significantly by 39.8%, attributed to supply chain reforms and enhanced new retail strategies [13] Distributor Network - The company added 116 new distributors in 2024, bringing the total to 6,707, indicating a recovery and expansion of its distributor network [13][14] Future Outlook - The company is focusing on enhancing its overall supply chain capabilities, aiming for double-digit revenue and profit growth as part of its "Four-Five Plan" [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) with a target price of 319.00 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [3][12]. Core Views - The new product "Fruit Tea" is rapidly gaining traction due to its competitive price-to-quality ratio, and the company is expected to continue high growth during the peak season [4][12]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with estimated revenues of 20,603 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.1% [6][12]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in March, with sales expected to exceed 70 million CNY, representing a month-on-month growth of over 130% [12]. - The upcoming Hong Kong listing is anticipated to support the company's global expansion strategy, enhancing its brand influence and market presence [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Dongpeng Beverage are as follows: - 2023A: 11,263 million CNY - 2024A: 15,839 million CNY - 2025E: 20,603 million CNY - 2026E: 25,969 million CNY - 2027E: 31,919 million CNY - Net profit (attributable to the parent company) is expected to grow from 2,040 million CNY in 2023A to 7,130 million CNY in 2027E, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.5% [6][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is 8.52 CNY, with a projected increase of 33.2% year-on-year [6][12]. Market Data - The current stock price is 248.97 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 184.78 CNY to 286.00 CNY [7][12]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 129,468 million CNY [7][12]. - The company has a net asset return rate (ROE) projected to reach 54.7% by 2027 [6][12].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘微涨微跌，还在4.8星。 沪深300等大盘股微跌，小盘股微涨。 今天价值风格比较坚挺。 A股港股的红利品种整体上涨。 创业板等成长风格下跌。 最近股票市场比较坚挺，上涨回到4.8星。 不过债券市场连续下跌。30年期国债指数，今天下跌1.4%。 股债有一定的负相关性。 前两年股票下跌，债券上涨。 今年变成股票上涨，债券下跌。 对长期纯债来说，目前性价比还不太高。 10年期国债收益率在2%以下，还是偏低的。最好是达到2.X%再考虑长期纯债。 1. 上周推出了刺激消费的利好政策《提振消费专项行动方案》。 里面包括了几个大项。 （1）提高城乡居民收入。 包括拓宽财产性收入渠道。例如股票市场、基金、保险、年金等等。 其实这个利好政策，上周五就有预期，前几天消费行业也已经提前上涨了一波。 （2）消费能力保障支持。 例如生育养育保障，教育支撑，医疗养老保障。 部分城市对生二胎三胎的奖励力度提高。 （3）促进消费。 例如适老化改造、生活服务消费、文体旅游消费等等。 （4）大宗消费更新。 用好超长期特别国债，来支持汽车、家电、家装等耐用消费品的更新；还有住房消费。 目前人民币长期 ...

[Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间（元） | 22.41-28.81 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | 91,883 | | 总股本/流通A股（百万股） | 3,465/3,464 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万股） | 0/0 | [Table_Balance] 资产负债表摘要(LF) | 股东权益（百万元） | 19,934 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 5.75 | | 市净率（现价） | 4.6 | | 净负债率 | 9.14% | | | | ——双汇发展更新报告 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [table_Authors] 訾猛(分析师) | 陈力宇(分析师) | 李美仪(分析师) | [Table_Target] | 上次评级: | 增持 | | 021-38676442 | 021-38677618 | 021-38038667 | 目标价格： | | 31.70 | | zimeng@gtjas.co ...