Core Viewpoint - The rise of emotional consumption reflects a shift in consumer preferences towards personalized, emotional experiences rather than mere material possession, indicating a significant potential for consumption upgrade in the market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Emotional Consumption Trends - Emotional consumption is gaining traction, with consumers increasingly valuing experiences that provide emotional satisfaction, such as surprise and interaction, over traditional material goods [2][3]. - The market for emotional consumption in China is projected to exceed 20 trillion yuan, highlighting its substantial growth potential [1]. - The "accompanying economy," represented by pet ownership, is also on the rise, with the urban pet consumption market expected to surpass 300 billion yuan by 2024 [1]. Group 2: Market Opportunities and Challenges - Businesses must focus on delivering high-quality services and understanding consumer emotions to capitalize on the emotional consumption trend, as superficial marketing strategies may lead to consumer dissatisfaction [2][3]. - The emotional consumption market requires a supportive regulatory environment to address issues like false advertising and consumer rights protection, ensuring sustainable industry growth [3][4]. - The government's initiative to promote new consumption models emphasizes the importance of enhancing consumer experience and quality, which aligns with the growing demand for personalized and aesthetic consumption [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the domestic market in China is expected to show a "dual bull" pattern in both equity and bond markets in the second half of the year, driven by structural investment opportunities in new economy sectors and a low-growth, low-inflation environment in the bond market [1] - The A-share market, despite uncertainties, is likely to benefit from a loose liquidity environment and recognition from decision-makers of the stock market's impact on public confidence and consumption [1] - In the cyclical sector, there are structural opportunities in non-ferrous metals, but a comprehensive rebound in the sector requires significant improvement in macro demand [1] Group 2 - The technology sector is expected to experience a clear domestic and international divergence, with overseas demand for computing power exceeding expectations, particularly in hardware segments benefiting from global AI infrastructure, such as GPU supply chains and optical modules [2] - The bond market is influenced by China's rapid demographic changes and complex geopolitical situation, with a focus on consumption and technology as new growth points for the economy [2] - The investment strategy for the second half of the year should consider allocations to fixed income plus, equity assets, overseas short-term bonds, and gold to capitalize on potential benefits from China's economic transformation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the crackdown on a criminal gang selling counterfeit collectible toys, revealing the challenges faced by legitimate companies in combating counterfeit products in a rapidly growing market [1][2]. Group 1: Criminal Activities - A criminal gang was dismantled by Shanghai police, leading to the seizure of over 5,000 counterfeit collectible toys with a sales value exceeding 12 million yuan [1]. - The gang operated by creating 1:1 replicas of popular toys without authorization, using deceptive marketing tactics to sell these counterfeit products [2]. - The gang's leader, Wang, was arrested along with seven others, and further investigations into upstream manufacturers and other selling platforms are ongoing [2]. Group 2: Company Response - The company, Pop Mart, encourages consumers to purchase toys only through official channels to avoid counterfeit products, acknowledging the high risk of encountering fakes in third-party sales [3]. - Pop Mart has significantly increased its plush toy production capacity, with monthly output now being several times higher than the previous year, in response to rising demand [3]. - The company is actively working to combat counterfeit sales and has implemented measures to improve product availability in the market [3].

2025.07. 29 本文字数：1121，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 揭书宜 封图｜ 假冒Labubu图 7月29日，第一财经记者从上海市徐汇区公安局经侦支队了解到， 近日，上海市徐汇区警方经过侦 查， 捣毁一销售假冒注册商标商品的犯罪团伙，查获假冒潮玩玩偶5000余件，涉案销售金额1200 余万元。 据上海市徐汇区公安分局经侦支队，该经侦支队在2025年3月接到辖区一知名潮玩企业报案称，有 消费者向企业反映，在网上购买了该公司生产的一款热门潮玩，发现是假货。经专业机构鉴定， 该 玩具并非企业授权委托加工生产，但产品的外观种类、商标品名等均与正品相同，相关售卖的网店存 在售假嫌疑。 假冒Labubu图 记者了解到， 该案件所涉企业为泡泡玛特，假冒玩偶多为"一娃难求"的Labubu。 接报后，警方随即深挖线索开展侦查，网店实际经营人汪某以电扇、音响、游戏机等日常销售活动为 掩护，暗中从事定制、包装、销售假冒品牌潮玩业务。在充分掌握嫌疑人行踪和犯罪证据的基础上， 7月4日上午，专案组分别在汪某住处和其公司内抓获汪某、吴某等 8名犯罪嫌疑人。同时，在其公 司楼下仓库内发现存放大量带有假冒商标、完成以及 ...

Core Insights - LABUBU's global popularity has positioned PopMart in the spotlight, with the IP expected to reach phenomenal popularity by 2025, becoming a sought-after collectible among fans [1] - The founder of PopMart, Wang Ning, shared insights on the core themes of the trendy toy industry during a deep interview with CCTV News, highlighting the transformation of Chinese cultural consumer brands in the global market [2][4] Company Development - Wang Ning's journey reflects the spirit of PopMart, showcasing his dual role as an industry observer and pioneer, revealing the challenges and opportunities faced by Chinese brands in the global landscape [4][5] - Wang Ning's early experiences in his family's small business laid the foundation for his understanding of commerce, which he later applied to his entrepreneurial ventures [8][9] - After facing initial struggles with PopMart's concept of trendy toys, Wang Ning pivoted to create a platform called Taohuo.com to connect manufacturers and retailers, which eventually led to securing angel investment [13][14] IP Strategy - In 2014, Wang Ning recognized the importance of exclusive IP and successfully acquired the rights to the popular Sonny Angel toy in China, which significantly contributed to PopMart's revenue [16][20] - The introduction of the Molly IP marked a turning point for PopMart, allowing the company to transition from a simple retailer to a brand operator with core IP assets [20][21] Market Expansion - PopMart's successful launch of the Molly zodiac series blind boxes in 2016 attracted a female consumer base, leading to rapid growth in the trendy toy market [21][24] - The company went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in December 2020, achieving a market valuation exceeding HKD 100 billion on its first trading day [24] Globalization Efforts - PopMart has expanded its presence in Southeast Asia, with significant revenue growth of 375.2% year-on-year in 2024, driven by localized marketing strategies and collaborations with local artists [28] - In the European and American markets, PopMart has successfully opened pop-up stores and collaborated with local influencers to enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement [29] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite rapid growth, PopMart faces supply chain challenges and market saturation, with Wang Ning emphasizing the need for strict quality control and supply chain optimization [32][34] - The company is navigating the complexities of the blind box model, which has raised concerns about consumer trust and market speculation [34][35] - Wang Ning's vision for PopMart is to create a lasting emotional connection with consumers while addressing the challenges of maintaining brand value and cultural depth [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [27] Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong market, with a net purchase of 295.66 billion CNY over the past week and a total of 7654.18 billion CNY year-to-date, surpassing the total net purchase of 7440.31 billion CNY for the entire year of 2024 [1][19] - The AI sector is experiencing significant advancements, with the launch of Alibaba's Qwen3-Coder, which features a 480 billion parameter model that achieves state-of-the-art results in various coding tasks, and Tencent's CodeBuddy AI IDE, enhancing development efficiency [2][8] - The smart driving industry is seeing a pivotal moment with new software updates from Tesla and the launch of new models from domestic manufacturers like Li Auto and Xpeng, indicating a positive market outlook [3] - The report emphasizes the high growth potential in the IP economy sector, suggesting investment in new consumer companies and key players in the IP space [4] Summary by Sections AI Sector - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference showcased over 800 companies and 3000 cutting-edge exhibits, including numerous large models and AI products, indicating robust industry growth [2][9] - Alibaba's Qwen3-Coder model supports extensive context and achieves superior performance compared to open-source models [7] - Tencent's CodeBuddy AI IDE integrates leading international and domestic models, streamlining the development process [8] Smart Driving - The report notes the trend of major manufacturers adopting laser radar technology, with a focus on leading companies like Xpeng and Li Auto, and suggests monitoring related technology providers [3][4] Consumer and IP Economy - The report identifies high-growth opportunities in the consumer sector, particularly in companies like Pop Mart and Blokus, which are expected to benefit from seasonal demand and new product launches [5] - The IP economy is highlighted as having strong growth potential, with recommendations to invest in various IP-related companies and sectors [4]

记者7月29日从上海市徐汇区公安局经侦支队了解到，近日，上海市徐汇区警方经过侦查，捣毁一销售 假冒注册商标商品的犯罪团伙，查获假冒潮玩玩偶5000余件，涉案销售金额1200余万元。据上海市徐汇 区公安分局经侦支队，该经侦支队在2025年3月接到辖区一知名潮玩企业报案称，有消费者向企业反 映，在网上购买了该公司生产的一款热门潮玩，发现是假货。经专业机构鉴定，该玩具并非企业授权委 托加工生产，但产品的外观种类、商标品名等均与正品相同，相关售卖的网店存在售假嫌疑。记者了解 到，该案件所涉企业为 泡泡玛特，假冒玩偶多为"一娃难求"的Labubu。 (第一财经) ...

Group 1: Old Poo Gold's Performance - Old Poo Gold's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to reach between 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 279% to 288% [1] - The company's sales revenue (including tax) is projected to be between 13.8 billion to 14.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 240% to 252% [2] - The growth is attributed to the expanding brand influence and continuous product optimization, with a focus on high-end traditional gold jewelry [2][3] Group 2: Market Expansion and Online Performance - Old Poo Gold has rapidly expanded its store presence, with over 30 new stores opened in major commercial centers and its first overseas store in Singapore [3][4] - The online sales performance is remarkable, with the company's Tmall flagship store achieving over 1 billion yuan in sales during the "618" shopping festival, marking a significant milestone in the jewelry sector [4] Group 3: Bubble Mart's Growth and Globalization - Bubble Mart's expected revenue for the first half of 2025 is 13.7 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.1 billion yuan, showcasing an impressive growth acceleration compared to the previous year [5] - The company has expanded its store count to over 180 in the Greater China and overseas markets, with a notable increase in international presence [5][6] - Organizational restructuring has been implemented to enhance local decision-making efficiency, supporting the company's global expansion strategy [6] Group 4: Emotional Consumption Trends - Both Old Poo Gold and Bubble Mart cater to the emotional and cultural needs of consumers, shifting from practical value to emotional satisfaction and cultural identity [8] - Old Poo Gold's handcrafted jewelry serves as a cultural symbol, while Bubble Mart's IP products resonate with the emotional needs of Generation Z [8] Group 5: Market Outlook and Future Directions - Analysts have expressed positive outlooks for both companies, with Old Poo Gold receiving a "buy" rating and a target price of 1,084 HKD, while Bubble Mart has a target price of 340 HKD [9][10] - Both companies are focusing on international expansion and product innovation, with Old Poo Gold's overseas stores performing better than expected and Bubble Mart exploring content creation through a film studio [11]

Group 1: Event Overview - The "Going Global" conference, themed "From Craftsmanship to the World," will be held in Hangzhou, focusing on globalization and overseas expansion [1] - The main venue will feature discussions on popular sectors such as consumption, technology, e-commerce, finance, and new energy, with over 10 keynote speeches and 5 roundtable discussions [1] - The event aims to provide a sustainable path for companies to navigate globalization challenges and enhance their overseas capabilities [1] Group 2: Insights from Huang Sheng's Presentation - Huang Sheng, a finance professor, shared insights on the trade war and strategies for Chinese companies to navigate global markets [4] - The presentation highlighted the importance of practical case studies from the past 30 years of the China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) [4] - CEIBS is collaborating with government departments to promote research on Chinese companies' overseas expansion [5] Group 3: Trade War Analysis - The essence of globalization is division of labor and cooperation, with Chinese companies traditionally exporting to the U.S. and reinvesting in the U.S. market [6] - The trade war has highlighted disparities in benefits, with multinational corporations gaining more than ordinary workers in the U.S., leading to dissatisfaction among the labor class [6] - The evolving dynamics have resulted in a trend where the U.S. seeks to enhance its supply capabilities while China aims to address demand-side issues [7][8] Group 4: Current State of Chinese Companies Going Global - Two-thirds of Chinese listed companies report overseas revenue, primarily in mid-to-high-end manufacturing sectors [9] - Over the past 20 years, overseas revenue has increased 50 times, while total revenue for A-share listed companies has only grown 20 times [9] - Despite this growth, overseas revenue accounts for only 13% of total income for Chinese listed companies, compared to 40% for S&P 500 companies [9] Group 5: Research on Internationalization Strategies - CEIBS has studied various companies, including established firms like BYD and emerging global players, to understand their internationalization strategies [10] - Successful companies often adopt diverse entry modes, including joint ventures and local operations, to mitigate risks [11] - The research emphasizes the importance of a clear international strategy, understanding local markets, and leveraging unique product advantages [13][14] Group 6: Challenges Faced by Chinese Companies - Chinese companies face challenges such as slow profit realization, talent management, and compliance risks when expanding internationally [15] - The need for deep localization and a long-term strategic approach is crucial for successful overseas operations [15] - The overall outlook for Chinese companies going global remains positive, with potential for cultural recognition and success on the international stage [15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in stock prices is a shift from "performance-driven" to "expectation-based" trading [3]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - On July 15, Pop Mart released a strong performance forecast, indicating that its revenue growth for the first half of 2025 is expected to exceed 200% year-on-year, with net profit growth potentially reaching 350%, resulting in revenue exceeding 13.6 billion yuan and net profit exceeding 4 billion yuan [4][5]. - Despite the impressive forecast, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 4% the day after the announcement, followed by a slight decline in subsequent trading days [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reaction - The market's lack of enthusiasm can be attributed to two main reasons: early investors taking profits and skepticism regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart's performance growth [7]. - The stock price behavior resembles that of the A-share market, where good news often leads to a sell-off, contrasting with the Hong Kong market's focus on actual performance [6][9]. Group 3: Valuation Analysis - Based on the forecasted net profit growth of 350%, Pop Mart's annual net profit could exceed 8 billion yuan, leading to a dynamic P/E ratio of approximately 40 times, which is above its historical average [8][9]. - Historical P/E ratios for Pop Mart have mostly been below 50 times, indicating that the current valuation is relatively high compared to past performance [8][9]. Group 4: Key Product Dependency - The significant performance increase is largely driven by the popularity of the Labubu IP, raising concerns about whether this growth can be sustained in the future [10][12]. - In 2024, Labubu's sales exceeded 3 billion yuan, accounting for over 23% of total revenue, and its contribution to revenue is expected to increase in 2025 [11][12]. Group 5: International Expansion - Pop Mart's international revenue growth is outpacing domestic growth, with projections indicating that overseas revenue may surpass domestic revenue by 2025 [15][16]. - The company plans to open 100 new stores overseas in 2025, focusing on North America and Europe, with current overseas store revenue significantly higher than domestic [24][25]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is currently cautious, awaiting further validation of Pop Mart's performance sustainability, particularly regarding its ability to maintain a 40%-50% compound profit growth rate [30][31]. - Despite short-term stock price pressures, the valuation is expected to remain stable, as the market acknowledges the company's current growth potential while questioning its long-term sustainability [30][31].