Core Viewpoint - The importance of the productive service industry is emphasized as a key driver for the development of new productive forces in China, with a target to increase its GDP share to 40% by 2035 or 2040, alongside maintaining manufacturing at a minimum of 25% [1][3][9] Group 1: Role of Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry is crucial for enhancing technological innovation in manufacturing, improving efficiency, and reducing operational costs [3][4] - It serves as a growth engine for GDP and is a significant contributor to the emergence of unicorn companies [5][6] - The industry is interconnected with all sectors, linking primary, secondary, and tertiary industries [3][4] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - In the U.S., the productive service industry has grown from 10% of GDP in 1950 to 48% in 2022, while China's share has increased from about 10% in 1980 to 28% currently [4][5] - The growth rate of the productive service industry is the highest across various countries, indicating its potential to become the largest sector in GDP [5][6] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - China faces challenges in transforming research and innovation into practical applications, with only 7% of R&D funding allocated to original innovation compared to around 20% in G20 countries [7] - Logistics costs in China are significantly higher than in developed regions, suggesting potential for increased profitability if these costs are reduced [8] - The digital service sector has not been fully leveraged for industrial applications, indicating a need for improvement in this area [9]

要深入推进城乡融合发展。持续推进"四好"农村路建设，补齐设施短板，完善公共服务功能，提升乡村 建设水平和生活品质。坚持以城带乡，推动城市基础设施、公共服务向乡村延伸。维护进城落户农民的 农村权益。缩小城乡差距、收入差距，推动实现共同富裕。 《实施方案》明确，要着眼动能转换，着力推进创新城市（300778）建设。具体而言，要激发城市发展 内生动力。因地制宜发展新质生产力，大力发展生产性和生活性服务业，积极发展首发经济、银发经 济、冰雪经济、低空经济、会展经济。推动装备制造等传统产业转型升级，发展壮大新能源等新兴产 业，加快布局具身智能等未来产业。打造"城市场景驱动+创新赋能"，建设氢能、第五代移动通信网络 （5G）街区等应用场景。丰富拓展"公园+"场景业态。扩大"吉字号"品牌影响力。推动装配式建筑及智 能建造装备产业化。 要激活城市存量资源潜力。建立城市更新专项规划与国土空间规划有机衔接机制。摸清城市房屋、设 施、土地等资产资源底数。通过年度国土变更调查和城市国土空间监测等工作，综合识别城市存量空 间。结合国土空间规划体检评估，明确城市存量空间盘活优化规划目标和重点，推动分层编制、调整详 细规划。加强规划和土地 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年11月28日 证券研究报告 | 服务主导新周期 ——对"十五五"中国经济趋势的判断 经济研究 · 宏观专题 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：董德志 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 021-60933158 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 S0980524090003 S0980513100001 2025年我国经济的三个显著趋势 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年节奏：冲刺起跑，逐季回落 图："反内卷"政策取向下，我国第二产业显著放缓，第三产业韧性凸显 图："开局即决战"思路下，今年我国经济总体呈前高后低态势 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 资料来源：Macrobond、国信证券经济研究所整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 面对外部风险，今年在"开局即决战，起步即冲刺"部署下，Q1紧抓"窗 ...

2025年11月28日 证券研究报告 | 服务主导新周期 ——对"十五五"中国经济趋势的判断 经济研究 · 宏观专题 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：董德志 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 021-60933158 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 S0980524090003 S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 2025年中国经济正经历三大深刻且相互关联的转变：（1）增长主引擎正从第二产业向更具潜 力的第三产业（服务业）切换；（2）建筑业自然萎缩；（3）内需主力从投资转向消费。 • "反内卷"=控供给+扩需求（主要针对实物产品部门），是串联这一切的主线。其路径清晰： 在供给端，建筑业的主动萎缩与工业产能出清，正是清理低效资本、发展新质生产力的关键一 步；需求端，资本存量过高背景下投资需求总量难以扩张（结构会有亮点），消费构成扩需求 主力，而发展服务业正是 ...

Core Insights - Guangzhou's economy shows a steady recovery with significant growth in key sectors, driven by favorable policies and events [1][2] Industrial Performance - The automotive manufacturing sector, a pillar of Guangzhou's economy, faces challenges but is actively transforming, with new energy vehicle production increasing by 23.7% year-on-year [2][4] - The service industry remains a vital growth engine, with revenue from profit-oriented services rising by 10.6% year-on-year [2][3] - The internet, software, and IT services sectors reported a revenue increase of 9.8%, with digital content services growing by 22.1% [3] Emerging Industries - New energy vehicles and high-tech manufacturing are experiencing rapid growth, with display device manufacturing and integrated circuit manufacturing increasing by 20.9% and 38.7%, respectively [4][5] - The civil drone production surged by 38.7%, indicating a robust expansion in the high-end equipment sector [4] Investment Trends - Industrial investment in Guangzhou has shown a stable growth of 7.3%, with significant increases in automotive parts manufacturing investment by 32.7% [7] - High-tech industries are gaining momentum, with investments in medical equipment manufacturing and aerospace equipment manufacturing growing by 25.0% and 66.4%, respectively [7]

Group 1: Economic Strategy and Development - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the need for a new blueprint and new momentum for China's economic growth, with discussions led by economists like Huang Qifan and Lin Yifu [1] - Huang Qifan highlights the importance of developing the productive service industry as a key driver for GDP growth and overall productivity, suggesting that it should be a focus during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][4] - Lin Yifu warns of a potential AI bubble in the U.S. during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, drawing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis, and suggests that China should aim for an 8% annual growth rate until 2035 [5][6] Group 2: Manufacturing and Trade - Zhu Min stresses the need for China to enhance product quality and build a new type of manufacturing industry, moving from labor-intensive to capital and technology-intensive products [7][8] - The global trade structure is changing, and China is diversifying its exports, focusing on capital and technology-intensive products rather than labor-intensive ones [7] - The goal is for manufacturing to remain a significant part of the economy, with a target of 25% by 2040, while the productive service sector should rise to 35%-40% of GDP [4] Group 3: Capital Market Reforms - Wu Xiaoqiu calls for a restructuring of the capital market ecosystem to better protect investor interests, moving away from a focus solely on financing [9][10] - The reform aims to increase the presence of high-tech companies in the stock market, with expectations that 35 out of the top 50 listed companies will be high-tech by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [9] - There is a push for greater transparency and improved regulatory frameworks in the capital market to enhance liquidity and attract larger investments [9] Group 4: Domestic Demand and Service Trade - Zhang Jun emphasizes the need for China to reduce reliance on exports and increase domestic demand, suggesting that trade surpluses should approach zero [12] - Recommendations include lowering barriers to service trade, adjusting exchange rate policies, and increasing investment in social sectors to support domestic consumption [12]

Core Insights - The economic performance of Guangzhou from January to October shows a steady recovery, driven by various events and policy measures, with emerging sectors accelerating growth [2][3] Economic Performance - The total retail sales in Guangzhou increased by 3.8% year-on-year, while the cumulative production of new energy vehicles grew by 23.7% [2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries rose by 1.5% year-on-year, reflecting a slight improvement compared to previous quarters [3] Key Industries - The automotive manufacturing sector, a pillar of Guangzhou's economy, is undergoing transformation, with new energy vehicle production increasing by 23.7% [3][6] - The service industry, particularly in cultural and sports sectors, saw significant revenue growth, with cultural arts and sports industries increasing by 34.8% and 14.6% respectively [3][5] Emerging Industries - New energy vehicles and high-tech manufacturing are showing robust growth, with the production of civil drones increasing by 38.7% and integrated circuit manufacturing rising by 38.7% [6][7] - The display device manufacturing sector experienced a 20.9% increase in added value, indicating a strong demand for advanced technology [6] Investment Trends - Industrial investment in Guangzhou grew by 7.3%, while overall fixed asset investment saw a slight decline of 0.9% [8] - Investment in the automotive manufacturing sector increased by 9.9%, with a notable 32.7% rise in automotive parts manufacturing [8][9] Technological Innovation - Guangzhou has made significant strides in technological innovation, ranking sixth globally in the "Nature Index - Research Cities" [8] - High-tech industries, including medical equipment and aerospace manufacturing, reported substantial investment growth of 25.0% and 66.4% respectively [9]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ ■ 苏诗钰 国家能源局最新数据显示，10月份全社会用电量同比增长10.4%，创下今年月度增速新高。从产业看， 第三产业用电量达1609亿千瓦时，同比增长17.1%。其中，生产性服务业的表现尤为突出，如互联网数 据服务业用电量同比增长46%；充换电服务业用电量同比增长61.8%。这组数据清晰传递出经济发展的 浓浓暖意。 笔者认为，生产性服务业的用电量激增，绝非单纯的能源消耗增加，而是我国经济结构向高质量转型的 核心信号，更是新质生产力加速发展的生动写照。 其一，政策赋能精准滴灌，打开产业发展广阔空间。从《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五 个五年规划的建议》明确提出"实施服务业扩能提质行动"，到国家发展改革委进一步坚持和完善政企常 态化沟通交流机制，一系列政策举措为产业发展筑牢制度保障。国家发展改革委产业发展司副司长李春 芳日前表示，生产性服务业是产业发展的"粘合剂"，贯穿生产活动全链条，是产业延链增值的关键支 撑。"十五五"时期我国生产性服务业发展空间广阔，民间资本大有可为。 从国际视角看，西方发达国家服务业增加值一般占GDP总量 ...

Core Insights - The latest data from the National Energy Administration indicates that China's total electricity consumption in October increased by 10.4% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year. The electricity consumption in the tertiary industry reached 1,609 billion kilowatt-hours, up 17.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in productive service sectors such as internet data services (up 46%) and charging services (up 61.8%) [1][2] Group 1: Economic Transformation - The surge in electricity consumption in productive services signals a shift towards high-quality economic transformation and accelerated development of new productive forces [1] - Policies aimed at enhancing service capacity and quality have created a robust institutional framework for industry development, with the productive service sector identified as a key support for value addition across the production chain [1][2] Group 2: Industry Integration and Innovation - The increase in electricity consumption reflects a deep integration between productive services and advanced manufacturing, generating a synergistic effect that enhances innovation and transformation [2][3] - The productive service sector encompasses 16 categories and 348 subcategories, including wholesale, transportation, information technology services, finance, and environmental services [2] Group 3: Market Demand and Growth - The rise in electricity consumption is fundamentally driven by an upgrade in market demand, with a shift in consumer spending from goods to services, leading to a 3% higher growth rate in service retail compared to goods retail in 2024 [3] - The proportion of per capita spending on services has reached 46.1%, indicating a strong demand for high-quality productive services [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing implementation of service capacity enhancement initiatives is expected to attract more market participants, creating opportunities for value enhancement and injecting continuous momentum into China's high-quality economic development [4]

在23日举行的2025第十届复旦首席经济学家论坛上，中国国家创新与发展战略研究会学术委员会常务副 主席、重庆市原市长黄奇帆指出，生产性服务业是GDP最大板块的增长极，是催生"独角兽"企业的动力 源泉，是提升服务贸易竞争力的坚实基础，是提高终端产品附加值的灵魂，也是提高一个国家全要素生 产率的重要基础。 现代制造业的高附加值更多体现在"看不见"的服务、专利与软件上。 生产性服务业是促进制造业技术进步、提升制造业生产效率和生产效益的关键环节，也对地区的国家的 经济发展起着关键作用。 对于生产性服务业的发展，他建议应把生产性服务业与制造业同等看待，除了保持制造业在GDP中占比 不低于25%的比例，还应把生产性服务业作为实体经济的重要组成部分来培育。 他以美股"七姐妹"举例，包括英伟达、苹果在内的美国"恐龙级"独角兽，它们共同的特征就是除了特斯 拉直接参与汽车和硬件制造外、其他企业的制造全是交给代工龙头企业生产，却成为制造业的龙头与价 值创造核心。这说明现代制造业的高附加值更多体现在"看不见"的服务、专利与软件上，而非仅靠零部 件的物理成本。 黄奇帆称，生产性服务业是制造业高附加值的核心。以手机为例，终端售价在700 ...