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数据点评 | 财政金融协同,蓄力“开门红”(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-31 16:26
Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure in 2025 show a significant divergence, indicating a potential shift in policy focus towards "fiscal and financial coordination" [1][4][5] Revenue Summary - In December 2025, the broad fiscal revenue decreased by 18.5% year-on-year, marking a decline of 13.3 percentage points from November, the lowest level of the year [1][3][5] - General fiscal revenue fell sharply by 25% year-on-year, influenced partly by a high base effect from the same period in 2024 [9][22] - Non-tax revenue saw a drastic decline of 47.9%, becoming the largest drag on overall revenue, likely due to stricter management regulations implemented in the second half of the year [9][22] - Government fund revenue decreased by 11.7% year-on-year, although the decline was less severe than in previous months, with land transfer revenue showing a slight improvement [9][17] Expenditure Summary - Despite revenue pressures, broad fiscal expenditure saw a smaller decline of 0.7% year-on-year in December, with a narrowing drop of 1 percentage point from November [2][3][31] - General fiscal expenditure decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a nearly 2 percentage point reduction in the decline compared to November [31] - Government fund expenditure increased by 1.5%, indicating a positive growth trend despite a slight slowdown from previous months [11][39] - Significant increases were noted in urban and rural community expenditures, which rose by 12.8%, reflecting a shift towards infrastructure and technological investments [11][33] Policy Outlook - The first quarter of 2026 may see a stronger reliance on fiscal and financial coordination to stimulate economic growth, with a focus on expanding interest subsidies and new infrastructure investments [2][13] - The upcoming fiscal policy is expected to emphasize increased total spending, with a focus on consumption and livelihood improvements, while maintaining necessary levels of deficit and debt [14]
12 月财政数据点评:财政支出:谁在压降,谁在扩张?
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-31 13:22
Fiscal Performance - In 2025, the general fiscal revenue was CNY 21.6 trillion, down 1.7% year-on-year, while general fiscal expenditure was CNY 28.7 trillion, up 1.0% year-on-year[6] - The cumulative general fiscal revenue for 2025 was down 2.9% compared to the budgeted growth of 0.2%, while expenditure was up 3.7%, below the budgeted 9.3%[8] - The completion rate of the first account expenditure in 2025 was the lowest since 2003 at 96.8%, with infrastructure spending significantly reduced[8] December 2025 Insights - In December 2025, general fiscal revenue fell by 19% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant drop in central non-tax revenue, which decreased by 51%[8] - General fiscal expenditure in December 2025 saw a marginal decline of 0.4% year-on-year, but showed signs of acceleration, particularly in infrastructure and service consumption[8] - The central government’s non-tax revenue in December 2025 was notably impacted by a high base effect from 2024, where actual revenue was 327% of the budgeted amount[8] Future Outlook - For Q1 2026, fiscal policies are expected to remain proactive, focusing on growth and debt management, with major economic provinces leading the efforts[8] - The issuance of government bonds in January 2026 is projected to reach CNY 1.1 trillion, an increase of CNY 0.2 trillion year-on-year, with early initiation of new special bonds contributing to this growth[8] - The fiscal strategy aims to support economic stability and growth through increased infrastructure and service sector investments[8]
江西财政收入低速增长,今年预计增长0.5%
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2026-01-29 14:21
Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Province's fiscal revenue and expenditure data reveal a mixed economic outlook, with a slight increase in general public budget revenue but a significant decline in government fund revenue, indicating ongoing challenges in the local economy [2][3][5]. Fiscal Revenue - In 2025, Jiangxi's general public budget revenue is projected to be CNY 307.92 billion, reflecting a growth of 0.4%, ranking 16th nationally and improving by one position from 2024 [2]. - The province's economic output is expected to reach CNY 3.602 trillion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, surpassing the national average by 0.2 percentage points [2]. Government Fund Revenue - The government fund budget revenue for 2025 is anticipated to be CNY 159.27 billion, representing a decline of 12.2%, which is worse than the initial forecast of -8.7% [5]. - This marks the fifth consecutive year of decline in government fund revenue, nearly halving from its peak of CNY 310.15 billion in 2020 [5]. Fiscal Expenditure - Despite weak revenue growth, Jiangxi's general public budget expenditure is set at CNY 742.69 billion for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and approximately 80% of this expenditure is allocated to social welfare [6]. - The province has implemented measures to reduce ineffective spending, cutting over CNY 20 billion in low-efficiency expenditures and reducing "three public" expenses by 21% [6]. Future Projections - For 2026, the general public budget revenue is projected to be CNY 309.5 billion, a growth of 0.5%, while the government fund budget revenue is expected to rise by 2% to CNY 162.45 billion [7]. - The general public budget expenditure for 2026 is estimated at CNY 784.86 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.7%, with a continued focus on improving social welfare [7]. Key Focus Areas - The budget report outlines six key priorities for the fiscal year, including stringent financial management, deepening tax reforms, and enhancing local government debt management [8].
海南账本怎么看?《关于海南省2025年预算执行情况和2026年预算草案的报告》解读
Hai Nan Ri Bao· 2026-01-28 04:11
2025年预算执行情况 精准宣贯自贸港财税政策 支持扩大有效投资 支持大力提振消费 支持重点产业发展 加强财政金融协调联动 推动提升科技创新能力 更大力度稳定和扩大就业 推动社会保障水平稳步提升 支持健康海南建设 推动教育资源扩优提质 支持乡村全面振兴 支持生态文明建设 强化债务风险防控 筑牢基层"三保"底线 加大财会监督力度 省两会期间,《关于海南省2025年预算执行情况和2026年预算草案的报告》(以下简称《预算报 告》)提请省七届人大五次会议审查。省财政厅有关负责人对《预算报告》进行了解读。 《预算报告》共分为三部分:一是2025年预算执行情况;二是2026年预算草案;三是认真做好2026 年财政预算执行和管理改革工作。 2025年,看海南财政的钱都花在哪里? 省财政厅相关负责人表示,2025年是海南自贸港封关运作、扩大开放之年,面对日益严峻的外部环 境和艰巨繁重的改革发展任务,全省财政部门担当尽责、敢为善为,有力有效实施积极的财政政策,稳 步推进自贸港财税体制改革,全力保障基层财政平稳运行,为海南高质量发展和自贸港如期封关运作提 供财政保障。 2025年,海南财政以攻坚之势,支持自贸港如期封关运作;以 ...
青海今年确保退出地方债务重点省份
第一财经· 2026-01-28 02:51
Core Viewpoint - Local governments are accelerating efforts to exit the high-risk debt list, with Qinghai Province focusing on reform and high-quality development while actively resolving local debt risks and preventing new hidden debts [3][5]. Group 1: Debt Risk Management - Qinghai Province's government work report emphasizes the importance of resolving local debt risks and aims to exit the list of high-risk debt provinces by 2026 [3][5]. - In the past, 12 provinces were identified as high-risk debt areas, restricting their government investment projects. Inner Mongolia has already exited this list, and Jilin Province announced its successful exit at the beginning of this year [5][6]. - The central government introduced a 12 trillion yuan package in 2024 to address local debt risks, prompting regions like Qinghai to expedite their debt resolution processes [7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2025, Qinghai's general public budget revenue was 35.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, while general public budget expenditure remained stable at 216.42 billion yuan [8]. - As of the end of 2024, Qinghai's government debt balance was approximately 357.3 billion yuan, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 90.45% and a debt ratio of 159.9% [8]. - The GDP of Qinghai Province is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2026, following a 4.1% growth in 2025, indicating a focus on improving economic performance while managing debt [8].
守正创新稳增长 精准施策惠民生——河南省2025年财政工作综述
He Nan Ri Bao· 2026-01-27 23:10
Core Viewpoint - The fiscal system in the province is focused on achieving a robust economic recovery and improving people's welfare while laying a solid foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan" through a more resilient and high-quality fiscal policy [1][2][8] Fiscal Performance - In 2025, the province's total fiscal revenue reached 7018.7 billion, marking a 2.4% year-on-year increase, with general public budget revenue at 4501.7 billion, up 2.5%, and general public budget expenditure at 11516.1 billion, growing by 0.5% [2] - Over the "14th Five-Year" period, the province's general public budget revenue and expenditure reached 22 trillion and 54 trillion respectively, ranking 8th and 6th nationally, with growth rates of 18.8% and 19.9% compared to the previous five years [1] Investment and Economic Support - The province implemented policies to stimulate investment and consumption, with over 200 billion allocated to support key projects in critical areas [2] - Special funds of 175.1 billion were allocated to enhance the transportation network, achieving record highs in port throughput and international train operations [2] Support for Enterprises - The province has rolled out fiscal policies to support small and medium-sized enterprises, including issuing bonds to clear debts and optimizing the procurement environment [3] - State-owned financial capital has significantly increased, with total assets of 47 trillion, a 54% increase since early 2021, and net assets growing by 58.5% [3] Focus on Key Areas - Fiscal funds are directed towards technology innovation, rural revitalization, and social welfare, with significant investments in agricultural safety and infrastructure [4][5] - The province's spending on people's livelihoods reached 8499.4 billion, accounting for 73.8% of general public budget expenditure, with a focus on education, healthcare, and social security [5] Risk Management - The province has established a multi-faceted risk prevention system, focusing on debt resolution and platform transformation to ensure high-quality development [6] - In 2025, the province issued 1227 billion in replacement bonds and implemented strict management mechanisms to mitigate debt risks [6] Fiscal Reform and Management - The province is advancing fiscal management reforms, including zero-based budgeting and performance management, to enhance resource allocation and fund efficiency [7] - A total of 290.9 billion was saved through fiscal reviews, demonstrating a commitment to fiscal discipline [7] Future Outlook - The fiscal system will continue to focus on the "1+2+4+N" target system, implementing more proactive fiscal policies to support economic growth and modernization efforts in the province [8]
GDP6万亿大省披露今年财政收入预期
第一财经· 2026-01-27 13:08
2026.01. 27 本文字数:987,阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 经济总量首次站上6万亿元台阶的福建省,披露了最新的财政收支状况。 外界比较关注地方今年财政收入预期和资金如何使用。 根据福建省财政厅数据,福建预计2026年地方一般公共预算收入为3816.43亿元,同比增长约2.5%。 这一收入增速预期低于当地经济增速预期。根据福建省政府工作报告,今年福建省地区生产总值预期增长 5%左右,在实际工作中努力争取更好结果。 在支出方面,福建省财政厅数据显示,预计当地2026年一般公共预算支出为6320.86亿元。福建财政今年 财政资金重点支持九大领域,包括支持壮大实体经济;支持深挖内需潜力;支持全面深化改革、支持增进民 生福祉等。 1月27日,福建省财政厅公布了2026年当地政府"账本"。2025年,福建省地方一般公共预算收入约为 3723.4亿元,同比增长3%。 福建去年财政收入3%的增速,与全国地方财政收入平均增速相近,高于2024年当地财政收入增速 (0.6%),符合去年初当地官方预期。 从近年来全国31个省份财政收入来看,福建省财政收入规模位居全国中游水平,财政实力较强。总体来 看, ...
2025年江西财政部门下达消费品以旧换新资金超百亿元
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2026-01-27 10:57
2025年江西财政部门下达消费品以旧换新资金超百亿元 中新网南昌1月27日电 (记者 李韵涵)江西省十四届人大四次会议27日在南昌开幕。记者从关于江西省 2025年全省和省级预算执行情况与2026年全省和省级预算草案的报告中了解到,2025年江西财政部门加 力扩围支持消费品以旧换新,下达以旧换新资金102.8亿元。 过去一年,江西财政部门持续用力、更加给力打好积极财政政策"组合拳",着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市 场、稳预期,推动存量政策和一揽子增量政策加快落地,为完成全年经济社会发展目标提供有力支撑。 广告等商务合作,请点击这里 本文为转载内容,授权事宜请联系原著作权人 此外,2025年江西财政部门加大吸引外商投资力度,对当年实际利用外资1000万美元以上的制造业项 目,按不超过引资额2%给予当地政府奖励。推动出台外贸促稳提质14条措施和应对美加征关税冲击助 企纾困政策。统筹5.3亿元对企业参加境内外展会、建设海外仓等给予补助,支持江西中欧班列、铁海 联运开行和货物集疏。 中新经纬版权所有,未经书面授权,任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview" ...
经济大省河南晒政府账本,收支形势如何
第一财经· 2026-01-26 10:54
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial situation of Henan Province, highlighting a balanced budget for 2025 but emphasizing ongoing fiscal challenges and the need for proactive fiscal policies to stimulate economic growth and optimize expenditure structures [3][5]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In 2025, Henan's general public budget revenue reached 450.17 billion yuan, a growth of 2.5%, slightly below the initial expectation of 4% [4][5]. - The province's GDP for 2025 is projected at 6.66 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [5]. - Government fund revenue, primarily from land sales, is expected to decline to 158.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.8%, with land transfer income dropping by 27.7% to 106.92 billion yuan due to a sluggish real estate market [5][6]. Debt Management - To maintain fiscal spending and mitigate debt risks, Henan plans to issue 517.82 billion yuan in government bonds in 2025, with total government debt expected to reach 2.48843 trillion yuan, remaining below the limit set by the Ministry of Finance [6][7]. Fiscal Policy Focus - The 2025 budget allocates 1.15161 trillion yuan for general public budget expenditure, a growth of 0.5%, with 849.94 billion yuan (73.8% of total expenditure) dedicated to social welfare [7][8]. - Education spending is set at 207.99 billion yuan, reflecting a commitment to improving educational resources [7]. Future Projections - For 2026, Henan's general public budget revenue is projected to grow by 4% to 468.07 billion yuan, while government fund revenue is expected to increase significantly by 57% to 248.46 billion yuan [9][10]. - The anticipated expenditure for 2026 includes 1.1672 trillion yuan for the general public budget and 357.35 billion yuan for government fund budget [10]. Social Welfare and Debt Management Initiatives - The 2026 budget emphasizes social welfare, with 94.03 billion yuan allocated to increase minimum pension and social assistance standards [11]. - The report stresses the importance of managing hidden debts and transforming local government financing platforms to prevent the establishment of new financing entities [11].
广东去年贡献中央收入超万亿元
第一财经· 2026-01-26 07:18
2026.01. 26 本文字数:965,阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 陈益刊 宋婕 中国财政收入规模最大的省份广东亮出了最新政府账本。 比如,去年广东发放育儿补贴约87亿元,投入约219亿元将全省城乡居民基本养老保险基础养老金最低标准 提高至每人每月240元。 广东预算报告另一大看点是政府今年的财政收支预期。 1月26日,广东省十四届人大五次会议召开,会议将审查广东省2025年预算执行情况和2026年预算草案的 报告(下称"广东预算报告"),广东省去年政府财政收支情况和今年收支预期随之揭晓。 根据广东省财政厅披露的上述预算报告信息,2025年广东全省一般公共预算收入约为13939亿元,增长 3%,总量连续35年居全国首位。其中税收收入约10211亿元(增长约4%),非税收入约3728亿元(增长 约0.3%)。 广东省财政收入规模稳居全国首位的背后,是其经济总量常年位居全国各省之首。根据今年广东省政府工作 报告,2025年广东地区生产总值增长3.9%、总量连续37年居全国首位。 广东财政实力雄厚,多年来一直是对中央财政收入净贡献的大省,对保障国家财力有着重要作用。 广东省 预算报告称,2025年广 ...