明年财政赤字率预计不会低于2025年的4%，新增债务总规模有必要提高到15万亿元左右。 一年一度的中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要 坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏 观经济治理效能。 会议部署了八大重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动 能；坚持改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展， 促进城乡融合和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办 实事；坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 "坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"作为首要任务，明确提出，深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施 城乡居民增收计划。此外，还要求"扩大优质商品和服务供给""优化'两新'政策实施"。这意味着明年不 光要继续实施"国补"，具体政策还会有所优化。 接受第一财经记者采访的多位专家表示，为确保完成明年重点任务，明年财政赤字率预计不会低于2025 年的4%，新增债务总规模有必要提高到15万亿元左右。货币政策方面，可 ...

明年保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。此次会议部署2026年经济工作，其中对明年财政政策 作出具体部署。 会议称，明年要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财 政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。重视解决地方财政困难，兜牢基 层"三保"底线。严肃财经纪律，坚持党政机关过紧日子。 中国自2008年国际金融危机之后，就一直采取积极财政政策，也就是扩张性财政政策，即在经济增长乏 力时，通过增加支出、扩大赤字、发行政府债券、增加转移支付等手段，刺激总需求，促进经济复苏和 增长的宏观调控政策。 2025年中央首次提出实施"更加积极"财政政策，此次会议明确2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，这 意味着财政政策将持续发力以稳经济。 近些年受经济下行等多重因素影响，财政收入增长乏力，而要保持一定的财政支出力度，就需要政府适 度增加举债，弥补收支缺口。 积极财政政策除了保持必要的财政支出规模外，还需要提高政策实施效应，而这就离不开财政科学管 理，优化财政支出结构等。 今年财政部在多个省份开展财政科学管理试点， ...

记者丨周潇枭 编辑丨张星 今年前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%，全年有望实现5%左右的增长，背后很重要的支撑在于 更加积极的财政政策。 今年更加积极的财政政策内涵丰富，赤字率提高到4%左右，对应赤字规模为5.66万亿元；发 行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，支持"两重""两新"工作；发行超长期特别国债5000亿元，支持 国有大型商业银行补充资本；安排新增地方专项债4.4万亿元，用于投资建设、土地收储、消 化地方拖欠企业账款等；四季度安排使用5000亿元地方债限额，用于化解存量债务和投资建设 等。 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，部分机构预判2026年经济增长目标仍在5%左右。考虑到当 前内需恢复偏弱、房地产市场在深度调整进程中、外部不确定性较大等， 2026年要推动释放 潜在经济增速，须实施更加积极的宏观政策，尤其需要更加积极的财政政策加以支持。 中国社科院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任何代欣对21世纪经济报道记者表示，"十五五"期 间，我国经济增长目标预计在5%左右，积极财政政策的支撑力度和实施方式都会进一步优 化。 明年积极财政政策将进一步提振消费 ，"两新"政策会优化；财政会坚持"投资于人"的主 线，增加 ...

宏 观 研 究 国内政策展望 2025 年 12 月 02 日 2026 年：财政货币政策展望 —— 2026 年展望报告系列之二 政策回顾：财政货币政策协同支撑 2025 年经济增长 财政政策呈现力度加大、节奏前置、灵活性提升的突出特征，充分体现对经济的托底意图。2025 年财政融资规模创历史新高，政府债净融资达 14.36 万亿元，占 GDP 比例预计为 10.2%。2025 年前三季度广义财政支出同比增长 7.9%，支出力度为近年高位。支出节奏明显前置，配合四 季度灵活出台的增量政策，凸显财政对宏观经济支持的积极姿态。 货币政策重归"适度宽松"基调，注重预期引导与传导疏通，操作更趋精准审慎。2025 年央 行保持流动性合理充裕，资金利率整体处于较低水平；降息次数和幅度较 2024 年更为谨慎， 政策节奏前置，社融增速呈现"前高后稳"。同时，2025 年央行加强市场沟通，支持资本市 场稳定，并通过多种手段缓解银行息差压力，提升政策传导效率。 财政与货币协同持续深化，国债买卖操作与商业银行注资体现宏观治理体系不断完善。2025 年央行分阶段调整国债买卖操作，展现出灵活应对市场变化的调控艺术。财政则通过注资商 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury reported a $284 billion budget deficit for the first month of the new fiscal year, indicating a concerning trend in fiscal management [1] Group 1: Budget Deficit Analysis - The reported deficit translates to over $90 billion in new debt added daily, raising questions about fiscal responsibility [1] - The deficit is 29% lower than the same period last year, but this reduction is attributed to forced spending cuts due to Congress not passing budget bills, rather than effective cost management [2] Group 2: Revenue and Expenditure Insights - Revenue increased by 22%, primarily due to higher tariffs, with the Treasury Secretary estimating $500 billion in tariff revenue for the year, covering nearly half of military spending [4] - However, tariffs ultimately burden consumers, as they lead to higher prices for imported goods, and the legality of these tariffs is under review by the Supreme Court [4] Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Challenges - The goal to reduce the deficit from 6.4% to 3% of GDP appears ambitious, given the rising fixed costs associated with social welfare, healthcare, and interest on national debt [5] - Interest payments on national debt are now higher than military spending, creating a vicious cycle that complicates deficit reduction efforts [5] Group 4: Economic Growth and Policy Implications - The current fiscal issues reflect deeper challenges in the U.S. economic growth model, which has relied on borrowing for consumption, a strategy that is becoming increasingly unsustainable [8] - Proposed ideas, such as distributing tariff revenue as dividends to citizens, may ultimately lead to higher prices and further complicate the economic landscape [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The trend suggests that the deficit may rebound in the coming months, with potential government shutdowns and critical legal outcomes regarding tariffs influencing market stability [11] - The current fiscal policies may be politically motivated, posing risks that could lead to broader economic consequences if not managed properly [13]

Core Points - The meeting of the 12th Party Committee of the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region emphasized the importance of implementing the 15th Five-Year Plan for economic and social development, focusing on practical actions and innovative measures to achieve the outlined goals [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Development - The 15th Five-Year period is crucial for Guangxi to achieve significant progress in modernizing its economy and promoting high-quality development [2]. - The regional government plans to enhance fiscal policies to support key strategic initiatives, including artificial intelligence, modern industrial systems, and rural revitalization [2]. - The total number of business entities in Guangxi reached 4.625 million, marking a 23% increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [4]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The regional government aims to strengthen state-owned enterprises and promote innovation in artificial intelligence and technology integration to drive economic growth [3]. - The number of high-tech enterprises in Guangxi increased by 29% since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, showcasing the region's commitment to fostering innovation [3]. Group 3: Social Development - The government is focused on improving living standards and promoting common prosperity through enhanced social services and community governance [7][8]. - The human resources sector will prioritize employment policies and social security systems to support the region's development goals [8]. Group 4: Environmental Sustainability - The ecological environment is recognized as a fundamental aspect of public welfare, with plans to advance initiatives for beautiful cities, rivers, and rural areas [9]. - The government will implement measures to control greenhouse gas emissions and promote green, low-carbon transitions [9].

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月26日英国预算责任办公室公布多项财政举措】英国预算责任办公室于11月26日透露，英国将对价 值超200万英镑的房产征税，还会把股息税率上调2个百分点。 此外，从2028至2029财政年度起，雇主 国民保险缴费起征点将连续三年冻结。 从2025 - 26财年到2029 - 30财年，英国将额外借款572亿英镑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is preparing a budget that aims to balance the demands of bond market investors and Labour Party backbenchers, amidst challenges to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership [2][3] Group 1: Budget Challenges - Reeves faces a £20 billion fiscal gap due to high costs of policy shifts, global trade tensions, and downward revisions in productivity forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) [3][4] - The government has achieved the fastest economic growth in the G7, but this growth is not sustainable, limiting Reeves' policy options [2][3] Group 2: Taxation and Spending Plans - Proposed measures may include freezing the income tax threshold for two years starting in 2028, introducing a "mansion tax" on properties over £2 million, and increasing taxes on alcohol, gambling, and dividends [5][8] - Reeves aims to create a fiscal buffer of £15-20 billion to reduce the likelihood of further tax increases in the coming years [4][8] Group 3: Economic Growth and Public Support - The budget will focus on addressing the cost of living crisis, with plans to raise the national minimum wage, freeze train fares, and lower energy bills [11] - Emphasizing the affordability of these measures is crucial for gaining voter support amid heightened public concern over upcoming policies [11]

Core Viewpoint - Jilin Province has achieved a historic breakthrough in risk prevention and is set to exit the list of high-risk debt provinces, following Inner Mongolia, with a nearly 90% reduction in hidden debt by September 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Debt Management and Economic Impact - Jilin's local government financing behavior will face fewer restrictions, promoting economic development and providing a replicable model for other provinces [1][5]. - The province's public budget revenue for the first ten months of 2025 reached 1110.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, indicating robust fiscal growth [5][6]. - The local government debt balance is projected to be 9993.4 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a debt ratio of 202.9%, remaining within the debt limit [7][8]. Group 2: Policy and Structural Changes - The central government has increased support for Jilin's debt resolution, with over 100 billion yuan allocated from a total of 6 trillion yuan for debt management [5]. - Jilin has conducted a comprehensive asset assessment, resulting in over 1000 billion yuan in activated assets, which supports risk prevention and economic stability [6]. - The exit from the high-risk debt list will enhance the flexibility and initiative of local governments and state-owned enterprises in investment and financing activities [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - While exiting the high-risk debt list reduces policy restrictions, it may also lead to decreased support for debt management, necessitating a balance between debt resolution and economic growth [7]. - Experts emphasize the need for improved local government debt management mechanisms to align with high-quality development goals [7][8]. - Other provinces, such as Ningxia, are also moving towards exiting the high-risk debt list, indicating a broader trend in debt management across the country [8].

Core Insights - The news highlights the achievements of the Heze Luxi New District in financial and fiscal development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on high-quality development and addressing key issues such as financing for small and micro enterprises, budget performance management, and social welfare [1] Financial Performance - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the district's general public budget revenue reached 25.646 billion yuan, with a tax revenue share of 69.54%, indicating high revenue quality [2] - The total public budget expenditure was 22.966 billion yuan, with 16.069 billion yuan allocated to social welfare, maintaining a stable 70% share over five years [2] - The district secured an additional 15.076 billion yuan in special bonds to support key projects in municipal services, social welfare, and water conservancy [2] Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The district's financial bureau implemented three key measures to alleviate financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises, including enhancing bank-enterprise connections and establishing a financing demand database [3] - A credit integrity management system was introduced to encourage banks to adhere to regulations and promote honest repayment by enterprises [3] - The district is expanding direct financing channels and has created a reserve of potential listed companies to facilitate access to multi-tiered capital markets [3] Budget Performance Management - The district has established a comprehensive budget performance management system that includes pre-assessment, monitoring during execution, and post-evaluation of budgetary projects [4] - A mechanism links performance evaluation results to budget allocations, prioritizing funding for high-performing projects while reducing budgets for underperforming ones [4] - The district emphasizes transparency and social oversight in budget performance management [4] Social Welfare and Support - A multi-tiered social welfare system has been established, covering basic living assistance, special social aid, and various subsidies in education, healthcare, and housing [5] - The district has disbursed a total of 38.556 million yuan in assistance to 21,384 individuals since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," including various forms of support for low-income and vulnerable groups [5] - Future plans include continuing to enhance financial support and reform initiatives to ensure effective resource allocation and risk management [5]