Report Summary on Investment Strategies 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Bullish [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Sideways pattern [1] - **Gold**: Bullish pattern; recommended to hold short - put option positions for the 10 - contract [1][4] - **Silver**: Bullish pattern; recommended to hold long positions and short - put option positions for the 10 - contract [4] - **Copper**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Aluminum - related Metals**: Aluminum is cautiously bullish; Alumina and Aluminum Alloy are in a sideways pattern [4] - **Nickel**: Sideways; recommended to hold short - call option positions [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Sideways [6] - **Silicon Energy**: Sideways pattern [6] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Sideways pattern; for rebar, hold short - put option positions; for hot - rolled coil, recommend to go long on the January contract on dips; for iron ore, consider short - put option positions for the 09 - contract or go long on the 01 - contract after the environmental protection limit expectation is fulfilled [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Sideways [7] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish pattern; recommend to take profit on short positions for the 09 - contract [7] - **Float Glass**: Bearish pattern for the 9 - contract; recommend to take profit on short positions and go long on the 01 - contract [7] - **Crude Oil**: Bearish pattern [7] - **Methanol**: Sideways; recommend to sell an option straddle [9] - **Polyolefins**: Sideways, trending slightly bullish [9] - **Cotton**: Bearish pattern [9] - **Rubber**: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: With policy support, bottom - up recovery of corporate earnings, and abundant liquidity, the upward trend of the equity index is clear, and the bullish sentiment is strengthened [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: The macro - economic outlook is volatile, and although the bond market is supported by loose liquidity, there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to trade at a high level [1] - **Precious Metals**: The weakening US dollar and rising Fed rate - cut expectations boost the prices of gold and silver. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver shows a clear bullish pattern [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Supply disruptions support prices, but demand concerns limit the upside potential. Different metals have different supply - demand situations [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disturbances are easing, and demand expectations are turning positive, with the supply - demand structure showing signs of improvement [6] - **Silicon Energy**: Industrial silicon supply is shrinking, and polysilicon has strong cost and policy support, but the actual production volume in August needs attention [6] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Coal production control supports steel prices. Different steel products and iron ore contracts have different supply - demand and price trends [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal is expected to tighten, and the supply - demand of coke is expected to increase, with both in a sideways pattern [7] - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda ash has a bearish fundamental outlook, while float glass may turn around in the long - term if supply contraction expectations are fulfilled [7] - **Crude Oil**: The increasing probability of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces the risk premium, leading to a short - term weakening of oil prices [7] - **Methanol**: The contradiction between loose coastal supply and tight inland supply makes it difficult for methanol prices to rise or fall, and an option straddle strategy is recommended [9] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand will increase simultaneously in August, and the trend will turn sideways and slightly bullish [9] - **Cotton**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a weakening trend [9] - **Rubber**: The demand outlook is improving, and the raw material price is stabilizing, so the rubber price is expected to rebound [9] 3. Summary by Categories **Equity Index Futures** - Wednesday, the equity index rose steadily, with small and micro - cap stocks leading the gains. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.76 trillion yuan. The mechanical, defense, and coal industries led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and construction sectors declined. The equity index futures strengthened with the spot market, and the basis of each contract narrowed slightly. The margin balance returned to the 2 - trillion - yuan mark, and leveraged funds accelerated their entry. With positive factors such as policy support and corporate earnings recovery, the upward trend of the equity index is clear, and long positions should be held [1] **Treasury Bonds** - The bond market continued to fluctuate at a high level. There is uncertainty about trade tariffs between some countries and the US, the Fed rate - cut expectation has risen, but inflation pressure still exists. The US dollar index continued to weaken. The central bank had a net withdrawal in the open market, but the liquidity remained loose. The bond market is difficult to reverse, but there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to trade at a high level [1] **Precious Metals** - Trump's announcements on tariffs and sanctions, along with rising Fed rate - cut expectations, increased the short - term upward momentum of gold prices. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver shows a clear bullish pattern. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions for gold and silver 10 - contracts and long positions for silver [4] **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Supply disruptions due to the Chilean copper mine incident and a weakening US dollar support copper prices, but weak demand expectations limit the upside [4] - **Aluminum - related Metals**: Alumina has an expected oversupply, but low warehouse receipts and market sentiment provide short - term support. The support for Shanghai Aluminum is strengthening, and its medium - term bullish pattern remains unchanged. Aluminum alloy follows the cost - based pricing logic and is in a sideways pattern [4] - **Nickel**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. Although the nickel price has rebounded due to macro - factors, the high inventory pressure limits the upside, and short - call option positions should be held [4] **Lithium Carbonate** - Due to policy impacts on the lithium resource end, the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory pressure eased. The demand expectation has turned positive, but supply - side disturbances still exist [6] **Silicon Energy** - Industrial silicon supply is contracting passively, and polysilicon has strong cost and policy support. However, the actual production volume in August needs attention [6] **Steel and Iron Ore** - **Rebar**: The supply is restricted by environmental protection and industry policies, and the cost is supported by coal production control. The market sentiment is optimistic, and short - put option positions should be held [5] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The fundamentals are resilient, with supply constraints and cost support. It is recommended to go long on the January contract on dips [5] - **Iron Ore**: The 9 - contract is dragged down by environmental protection limits and a weak basis, while the 01 - contract has positive expectations. However, the price upside is limited, and different strategies can be adopted for different contracts [5] **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Coking Coal**: The market expects supply to tighten, but the impact of expectations on prices is greater than the fundamentals, and the risk of over - rising prices should be guarded against [7] - **Coke**: Both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the spot market is actively traded, with the futures price stabilizing and trending slightly bullish [7] **Soda Ash and Float Glass** - **Soda Ash**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to take profit on short positions for the 09 - contract [7] - **Float Glass**: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to increase. In the long - term, if supply contraction expectations are fulfilled, the price may turn around. It is recommended to take profit on short positions for the 9 - contract and go long on the 01 - contract [7] **Crude Oil** - The increasing probability of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces the risk premium, and the short - term oil price may weaken [7] **Methanol** - The port inventory is increasing, and the production enterprise inventory is decreasing. The contradiction between loose coastal supply and tight inland supply makes it difficult for prices to rise or fall, and an option straddle strategy is recommended [9] **Polyolefins** - The supply is increasing due to the restart of maintenance devices, and the demand is also rising. The trend will turn sideways and slightly bullish [9] **Cotton** - The domestic cotton production is expected to increase, and the overseas demand is affected by trade frictions. The downstream is in the off - season, and the cotton price is weakening [9] **Rubber** - The demand outlook is improving, and the raw material price is stabilizing. The rubber price is expected to rebound as it is at a relatively low level [9]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened high but closed lower, with the ChiNext index dropping by 1% at one point. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 500 billion yuan within half an hour of opening [2][3]. Medical Sector Performance - The medical sector showed strong performance, with medical device, in vitro diagnostics, brain-computer interface, blood products, and optical module (CPO) stocks leading the gains. Notable stocks included: - Sino Medical (赛诺医疗) surged by 20.01% to 17.03 yuan, with a market cap of 7.1 billion yuan [10]. - Other stocks like Dabo Medical (大博医疗) and Yingke Medical (英科医疗) also saw significant increases [9][10]. Consumer Electronics and Related Stocks - Consumer electronics manufacturing stocks experienced a notable rise, with Industrial Fulian (工业富联) increasing by over 7% and other companies like GoerTek (歌尔股份) and Lingyi Technology (领益智造) following suit [6][7]. Baby and Child Concept Stocks - The baby and child concept stock Beijiajie (倍加洁) faced a significant drop, hitting the limit down, with a trading price of 41.47 yuan per share and a trading volume exceeding 200 million yuan. This followed a period of rapid price increases due to favorable policy announcements regarding free preschool education [11][13]. Steel and Military Equipment Sectors - The steel sector showed weakness, with Xining Special Steel (西宁特钢) dropping over 8%. Other companies like Liugang (柳钢股份) and Baosteel (包钢股份) also experienced declines [16][17]. - The military equipment sector opened high but also closed lower, with companies like Hengyu Xintong (恒宇信通) seeing a drop of over 10% [14][16].

【导读】 A 股收复 3600 点，军工股彻底沸腾，游戏概念连涨 3 日，钢铁板块拉升 港股上午三大指数全线上涨。恒生指数涨 0.27% ，恒生科技指数涨 0.33% ，恒生国企指数 涨 0.19% 。联想集团、中银香港、银河娱乐、理想汽车、药明康德领涨恒指成份股，哔哩哔 哩、小鹏汽车、网易、农业银行跟涨。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | HSI | 恒生指数 | 24799.67 | 66.22 | 0.27% | | 2 | HSTECH | | 5499.31 | 18.06 | 0.33% | | ന | HSCEI | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8910.44 | 16.96 | 0.19% | | ব | HSCCI | 恒生香港中资企业指数 | 4218.77 | 12.42 | 0.30% | 军工板块彻底沸腾 中国基金报记者 张舟 8 月 5 日上午， A 股三大股指走势分化，上证指数再度收复 3600 点。截至午间收盘，上证 指数涨 0.53% ，报 3602.13 点，深 ...

政治局会议多行业联合解读 20250730 摘要 宏观政策基调转变：从强调短期经济刺激转向更注重持续观察和适时调 整，财政政策侧重提高资金使用效率，货币政策节奏趋稳，重心在于促 进社会综合融资成本下行。 内需战略调整：从侧重"两新两重"建设转向高质量推动"两公"建设， 并提出培育服务消费新的增长点，结合生育补贴政策，预示补贴可能从 耐用品转向服务消费。 资本市场策略：从"活跃金融市场"转向"增强资本市场吸引力和包容 性"，旨在巩固市场回稳向好势头，避免过快释放动能，同时强化就业 优先政策。 市场运行模式转变：市场不再仅依赖政策兑现，而是受到宽松资金面及 政策不确定性下降的驱动，延续震荡慢牛趋势，下半年险资等中长期资 金入市预期确定。 新能源领域投资策略：光伏与锂电池价格触底，关注交易性机会而非强 劲成长性机会，看好 BC 及同江技术迭代，以及固态电池技术迭代带来 的设备机会。 Q&A 7 月政治局会议对当前经济形势和政策部署有哪些主要变化？ 7 月政治局会议在经济形势和政策部署方面有以下几个主要变化： 机器人行业展望：对机器人行业持乐观态度，认为其成长性强且中长期 空间大，关注金属注射成型（MIM）技术在机器 ...

Report Title - Steel and Ore Monthly Report 2025 - 08: Industrial Expectations Disappointed, Black Rebound Halted [1] Report Authors - Xie Chen, Yang Hui from Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center's Black Industry Group [2] Report Main Views Steel - **Price**: Spot prices rebounded significantly, and the futures market was strong. In July, the螺纹10 contract rose 208 to 3205, and the hot - rolled coil futures price rose 267 to 3390. Shanghai's spot prices for rebar and hot - rolled coil increased by 220 and 170 respectively [8]. - **Supply**: Blast furnace production remained high, and electric furnace supply increased significantly. As of August 1, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, and the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 57.05% at the end of July [11][18]. - **Demand**: Speculative demand for building materials increased significantly, while both domestic and foreign demand for plates decreased month - on - month. In July, the average monthly apparent demand for rebar decreased by 3.4% month - on - month, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 1% [24][27]. - **Profit**: Blast furnace profits continued to increase, and electric furnace production turned profitable. By August 1, the blast furnace profitability rate reached 65.4%, and the average profit of electric furnace rebar at off - peak electricity was 81 yuan/ton on July 30 [31]. - **Inventory**: The inventory accumulation rate of building materials was slower than expected, and plate inventories continued to accumulate. As of August 1, rebar social inventory increased by 200,000 tons month - on - month, and hot - rolled coil social inventory increased by 2% in July [35][38]. - **Basis**: The basis fluctuated, and the futures - spot spread accelerated its decline. The rebar 10 - contract basis widened by 4 from the end of June to August 1, and the hot - rolled coil basis inverted [41]. - **Summary**: In July, blast furnace operations were basically flat, molten iron production remained high, and electric furnace production increased significantly. Overall supply was abundant. Demand for plates was weak due to the seasonal off - peak for manufacturing. Considering the weakening support logic in the black industry, there is significant pressure for a correction in the futures market. Maintain a short - selling strategy in the short term [3]. Iron Ore - **Price**: Spot ore prices rose significantly, and the futures market rebounded strongly. In July, the futures price rose 63.5 to 779, and the Rizhao Port PB powder price rose 64 to 779 yuan/ton [52]. - **Supply**: Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and arrivals also declined. In July, the weekly average global shipment volume was 30.73 million tons, a decrease of 3.59 million tons from the previous month [55]. - **Demand**: Molten iron production remained high, and demand was expected to remain resilient. In July, blast furnace operations were basically flat, and molten iron production remained high. It is expected that the average daily molten iron production in August will be between 2.37 and 2.4 million tons [64]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks passively. As of August 1, the 47 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 1.74 million tons month - on - month [70]. - **Shipping**: Shipping prices increased significantly [76]. - **Spread**: There was no trading space for the futures spread, but attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the coke - ore ratio 01 contract [3]. - **Summary**: In July, supply tightened while demand remained high, and the fundamentals were strong. Later, affected by the weakening industrial logic, ore prices declined from their highs. Considering the short window period for short - selling and the more certain weakening of finished products, short - selling iron ore is not recommended for now. Instead, pay attention to the operation of shorting coke and going long on iron ore [3]. Strategies - For steel, continue to hold the short positions recommended in the weekly strategy and watch for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. - For iron ore, pay attention to the operation of shorting coke and going long on iron ore and the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the coke - ore ratio 01 contract [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue adjusting, and it is recommended to wait and see. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Policy Information - On August 1st, the list of "two major" construction projects worth 800 billion yuan for this year has been fully issued, and the central budget - internal investment of 735 billion yuan has been basically issued. [3] Production Capacity Utilization - Last week, the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.37 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 40,900 tons year - on - year. [3] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 57.05%, an increase of 1.56 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 15.11 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 74.21%, an increase of 2.18 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 12.75 percentage points year - on - year. [3] Market Performance and Influencing Factors - The price of finished steel rose first and then fell last week with large fluctuations. In terms of weekly fundamentals, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased and inventory increased, while the supply, demand, and inventory of hot - rolled steel all increased. The fundamentals are slightly bearish, but market sentiment has a greater impact on the market. [3] - The Politburo meeting last week was relatively calm, with no unexpected statements on anti - involution and real estate, which put pressure on the previously excited market. Recent market trends are greatly affected by macro factors and sentiment, with large price fluctuations. [3] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand conditions should be focused on. [4]

1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has stopped falling, and credit has followed the decline in interest rates. Short - duration and low - grade varieties have shown strong performance. Credit spreads have mostly increased, with some short - duration and low - grade varieties declining [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads have generally remained stable, with differentiation among different regions [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads have slightly declined, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have also decreased [2][17]. - The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have all declined, and the spreads have generally compressed by 2 - 4BP, outperforming ordinary credit bonds [2][24]. - The excess spreads of perpetual bonds have generally increased, with a relatively large increase in the spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds [2][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Stabilization and Credit Spread Changes - Interest - rate bond yields first rose and then fell, with the yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds declining by 3BP, 4BP, 3BP, 3BP, and 5BP respectively. Credit bond yields generally followed the decline in interest rates but underperformed interest - rate bonds. The yield changes of 7Y varieties with a small previous adjustment were limited [2][5]. - Credit spreads mostly increased, with some short - duration and low - grade varieties declining. Rating spreads and term spreads showed significant differentiation [5]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads - Overall, urban investment bond spreads remained stable, with differentiation among different regions. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA and AA platforms remained flat, while those of AA + platforms increased by 1BP [2][9]. - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and county - level platforms generally remained flat [16]. 3.3 Industrial Bond Spreads - Industrial bond spreads slightly declined, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds also decreased. The spreads of central and local state - owned enterprise real estate bonds remained flat, those of mixed - ownership real estate bonds declined by 4BP, and those of private - enterprise real estate bonds increased by 8BP [2][17]. - The spreads of coal bonds of each grade declined by 1BP; the spreads of AAA - rated steel bonds remained flat, while those of AA + - rated steel bonds declined by 3BP; the spreads of AAA - rated chemical bonds remained flat, while those of AA + - rated chemical bonds declined by 1BP [17]. 3.4 Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds all declined, and the spreads generally compressed by 2 - 4BP, outperforming ordinary credit bonds, with high - grade varieties performing slightly better [2][24]. 3.5 Perpetual Bond Excess Spreads - The excess spreads of perpetual bonds generally increased, with a relatively large increase in the spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds. The excess spreads of 3Y industrial AAA perpetual bonds increased by 3.34BP to 7.16BP, and those of 5Y industrial AAA perpetual bonds remained flat at 7.65BP [2][27]. 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual bond spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015 [31]. - The credit spreads of urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D center of Cinda Securities, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [31].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.01」 热轧卷板市场周报 成本端支撑减弱 热卷期价高位回落 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 「周度要点小结1」 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至8月1日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3401（-106），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3480（-50）。（单位： 元/吨） 2. 产量：热卷产量由降转增。322.79（+5.3）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回升，重返320万吨。本期表需320（+4.76），（同比-1.3）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库双增，总库存继续增加。总库存347.95（+2.79），（同比-84.36）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率65.37%，环比上周增加1.73个百分点，同比去年增加58.88个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美国6月PCE数据加速上升，美联储9月降息预期再遭打压。（2 ...

Group 1 - Nanjing's industrial added value increased by 6.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with a 7.6% increase in June [1] - Out of 37 major industrial sectors, 30 sectors experienced year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 81.1% [1] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 6.8%, with notable increases in automotive manufacturing (16.1%), black metal smelting and rolling (11.2%), and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (10.3%) [1] Group 2 - The brain-computer interface industry cultivation conference was held in Nanjing, leading to significant project signings and innovations [2] - Nanjing has established an industrial attack mechanism focusing on key industries, including artificial intelligence, robotics, biomedicine, and new-generation information communication [2] - Nanjing's core robotics industry achieved revenue of 19.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of approximately 20% [3] Group 3 - The software and information services industry in Nanjing generated revenue of 520 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.5% [3] - The artificial intelligence core industry reported revenue of 26 billion yuan, growing at a rate of 26% [3] - The biomedicine industry achieved revenue of 118.5 billion yuan, with an increase of 11.5% [3]

● 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ↓ 2025 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 品周H 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 短流程日耗 ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 唱启剧H lle 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12月 张家港废钢到货 废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/08/01 华东 स्क 中部 东北 日期 华南 2025/07/25 2230 2071 2269 2269 2318 原点 2238 2025/07/28 2312 2074 2252 2276 2244 2025/07/29 2232 2310 2065 2278 2025/07/30 2236 2312 2068 2253 2283 2025/07/31= 12 2233 ~2310 原占 2069 2235 原品 2281 环比 -3 -2 -18 -2 1 沙钢重三价格 (含税) ◆ 2022 ↓ 2023 ↓ 2024 ● 2025 4 ...