今天硅锰价格上涨2.07%，硅铁价格上涨2.56%，是近期幅度较大的日内涨幅。从上一个交易日来看，铁合金 两个品种并不是特别亮眼的，比如黑色系中焦煤和焦炭纷纷涨停。为什么要特别关注这两个品种一些，因为在 中长期看涨的过程当中，更适当去配置一些波动率相对较低的品种。从上一个交易日来看，铁合金两个品种有 一些产业相关政策性文件出现，市场对于文件产生的影响有一定利好预期，而且从宏观政策的角度来看，也有 一定的利好。从上一个交易日来看，铁合金两个品种的基本面有些差异，硅锰相对更强一些，不过硅铁的持仓 量和波动率有些异动，隐隐有一朝红日出的势头。 分别来看，在关于征求《陕西省发展和改革委员会 陕西省工业和信息化厅关于执行差别电价有关事项的通知》 意见的函中所述即将对铁合金等行业中限制类和淘汰类产能在2026年7月1日起收取加价电费，其中限制类产能 加价0.1元/kWh,淘汰类产能加价0.3元/kWh。之前市场经历过类似的洗礼，在2021年2月4日市场中看到的内 蒙古产区《关于调整部分行业电价政策和电力市场交易政策的通知》，关于铁合金主产区加征惩罚性电价的相 关政策文件，影响相对较大，市场在该交易日下午开盘后不久涨停封板 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market sentiment has pushed up the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and their futures prices are oscillating upwards [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the price of Mn44 lump ore is 43 yuan/ton - degree; the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot - 03 futures price spread of ferrosilicon is - 510 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese is - 350 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. The 2603 - 2605 spread of ferrosilicon is 28 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese is - 20 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The 2603 spread between silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is 140 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the 2605 spread is 188 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Futures Data - **Futures Contracts**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2603 is 5860 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan; the trading volume is 329,099, and the open interest is 245,565. The closing price of ferrosilicon 2605 is 5832 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan; the trading volume is 68,763, and the open interest is 60,892. The closing price of silicomanganese 2603 is 6000 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan; the trading volume is 317,087, and the open interest is 284,324. The closing price of silicomanganese 2605 is 6020 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan; the trading volume is 242,633, and the open interest is 253,950 [3]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On January 6, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was 5200 - 5350 yuan/ton; the price range of 75 ferrosilicon increased, with the range in different regions being 5600 - 5800 yuan/ton. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon also increased by 10 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, both up 25 yuan/ton. An East - China steel mill set the price of silicomanganese at 5900 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory), with a purchase volume of 2000 tons. Hegang set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon in January at 5760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from December, and the purchase volume was 3313 tons, an increase of 563 tons from December [3]. - **Policy News**: From July 1, 2026, restricted ferroalloy enterprises in Shaanxi will be charged an additional 0.1 yuan/kWh of electricity. Among the ferroalloy enterprises in Yulin, Shaanxi, 7 restricted - type ferrosilicon enterprises in Fugu and 2 in Shenmu are in operation. The current total daily output of ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 2535 tons, of which the daily output of restricted - type enterprises is 845 tons, accounting for 5.72% of the national total daily output [4]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 1, and that of silicomanganese is also 1 [4].

| | | | | | | | | H色金属状花干燥 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/08 | | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2609 | JM2609 | 6 ...

4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：内蒙古（日） 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：青海 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：宁夏 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/0 ...

从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 黑色建材日报 2026-01-08 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3187 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 76 元/吨（2.442%）。当日注册仓单 56844 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 174.14 万手，环比增加 178435 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3180 元/吨, 环比增加 30/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比增加 40 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3332 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 69 元/吨（2.114%）。 当日注册仓单 103995 吨, 环比减少 593 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 137.79 万手，环比增加 103802 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比增加 50 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比增加 40 元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's meeting emphasizes promoting high - quality economic development and a reasonable rise in prices, keeping the macro sentiment positive. The supply of coking coal is tightening, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke. With the expected resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking, iron ore prices remain strong. Although the fundamentals of steel in the off - season are lackluster, strong cost support keeps the futures prices strong. The price increase of glass and soda ash stimulates mid - stream restocking, but fundamental contradictions still exist [1][2]. - In general, the off - season fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. The resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the restocking expectation further, and the prices of furnace materials are expected to rise from the low level, but the upside is limited by steel mills' profits [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventories are continuously accumulating, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks the momentum to rise, but the good profits of electric furnaces support the demand. Overall, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The sharp rise in the futures market may drive spot - futures and speculative demand to enter the market for procurement. The room for further price cuts in the spot market is limited, and the futures price is expected to follow that of coking coal [2][11]. - Coking coal: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking is increasing, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2][12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to near the cost valuation. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply pressure of ferrosilicon is not large. The strong rebound of the black chain and the expected increase in electricity costs in Shaanxi support the futures price to maintain a high level in the short term. However, if the spot price rises significantly due to the influence of the futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear. Caution should be exercised regarding the upside space of the futures price [3][19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply exceeds demand. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will intensify further, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][6][16]. Other Information - Steel: The cost and sentiment provide support, and the futures price is strong. The spot market transactions have improved, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. However, in the off - season, the demand is facing downward pressure, and the inventory removal speed has slowed down. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely at a low level, and attention should be paid to the pre - festival restocking rhythm [8]. - Commodity Index: On January 7, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities rose. The special index, including the Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, and Industrial Products Index, also increased. The steel industry chain index had significant gains, with a daily increase of 3.33%, a 5 - day increase of 2.82%, a 1 - month increase of 4.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.21% [106][107].

铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5860 | 84 | 184 | 329099 | 1863 | 257498 | -11933 | | SM主力合约 | 6000 | 82 | 138 | 317087 | 42537 | 284324 | 14767 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5450 | 90 | 50 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5650 | 20 | 0 | | ...

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2026/1/7 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖 原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,000.00 | +82.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,860.00 | +84.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 620,191.00 | +59937.00↑ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 390,166.00 | -5013.00↓ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -81, ...

黑色建材日报 2026-01-07 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3111 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.225%）。当日注册仓单 56844 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 156.29 万手，环比增加 14597 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3263 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 15 元/吨（0.461%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 127 ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月7日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 狱跌 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3280 | 3290 | -10 | 198 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3150 | 3160 | -10 | ୧୫ | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3250 | 3250 | O | 168 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3111 | 3104 | 7 | 169 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3156 | 3146 | 10 | 124 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3082 | 3088 | -6 | 198 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3260 | 3250 | 10 | 20 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3160 | 3170 | -10 | -80 | | | 热卷现货(华南 ...