Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment for lithium carbonate is positive, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 95,200, the trading volume was 1,366,919, and the open interest was 562,954. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 95,720, the trading volume was 302,425, and the open interest was 274,475 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 26,953 hands, showing a decrease compared to previous periods [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between the spot and 2601 contract was -9,050, and between the spot and 2605 contract was -9,570. The basis between the 2601 and 2605 contracts was -520 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,024, and the price of lepidolite (2.0%-2.5%) was 2,340 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 86,150, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,800 [1]. - **Related Products**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials showed different degrees of change [1]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 86,395 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1385 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 86,150 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,800 yuan/ton, both increasing by 1000 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - The full exemption policy for new energy vehicle purchase tax will end in 2025. 17 mainstream automobile brands have launched purchase tax subsidy plans. From January 1, 2026, the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy will be halved [2][3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing significant price increases, with the main contract reaching 93,840.0 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.44%, surpassing the 90,000 yuan/ton mark. The demand for lithium carbonate is projected to grow by 30% by 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply is expected to increase by approximately 250,000 tons, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario with potential for price increases [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market challenges are primarily on the demand side, driven by record sales in electric vehicles and energy storage batteries, which are boosting the sentiment for lithium battery materials and raw materials [2]. - Domestic lithium carbonate production is nearing its upper limit, with capacity utilization across the industry chain at peak levels, leading to a continuous supply shortage in the spot market and the lowest recorded inventory days [2]. - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, the supply may not be able to keep pace, leading to prices possibly exceeding 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. Group 2: Industry Events - The 2025 (10th) Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and the User-Side Energy Storage and Battery Technology Forum will be held in Shenzhen from December 17-19 [2]. - Upcoming events include the 2026 National Tour for Lithium Battery and Solid-State Battery, and various technical forums and award ceremonies scheduled throughout 2026 [7][8].

本周一收盘前，碳酸锂期货主力合约一度触及涨停，盘中最高升至约 9.52万元/吨，日内最大涨 幅接近9%，并最终收于9万元/吨上方，创下三个月以来的最高水平。 自 10月中旬反弹启动以来，该合约累计涨幅已逼近20%。 在动力与储能需求同步走强、库存持续下降的现实支撑下，供给侧的不确定因素叠加龙头企业强化 远期预期，使得碳酸锂价格在本周首个交易日被进一步推升至阶段性强势区间。 产量创新高，但有效供给受限 过去一周，多项数据指向一个核心变化：碳酸锂供应虽然处于高位，但 "增量不及预期"。 国内 10月碳酸锂产量继续回升至约9万吨水平，但行业开工率却从9月的高位回落到约四成左右， 释放出"有产能但未完全打开"的信号。 同时，进口端收缩迹象明显。9月碳酸锂进口量环比下降，海外流入量减弱，进一步压缩国内供应 弹性。 市场此前高度关注的江西枧下窝矿区复产问题在上周出现了关键进展。 此外，随着冬季临近，盐湖企业面临季节性减产，进一步加深市场对未来两个月供给偏紧的预期。 动力不弱、储能强劲：需求侧进入 "双引擎"阶段 在动力的确定性与储能的高增长共同作用下，市场对四季度碳酸锂需求的判断从 "回暖"升级 到"阶段性偏紧"。 库存 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures has rebounded, with the January contract reaching a high of 88,000 yuan and closing at 86,500 yuan on November 11, a cumulative increase of over 20% since mid - October. The trading volume is high, and the open interest has reached a record high of nearly one million lots this year, but there are significant differences above 80,000 yuan [1]. - From the supply - demand perspective, positive factors are accumulating. Demand has unexpectedly reversed, with downstream price - increase factors spreading from top to bottom. The consumption of lithium carbonate is now driven by both power batteries and energy - storage batteries, and the proportion of energy - storage batteries has rapidly increased from less than 15% in 2023 to nearly one - third recently. Also, the desired inventory level has sharply increased, and despite high production, the weekly inventory has been decreasing [2]. - The main risk lies in policy - expectation changes in mines. The competitive supply pattern and high supply elasticity remain suppressing factors. The supply growth rate of lithium carbonate is expected to remain at around 30% in the next two years. With high overall inventory, physical goods are abundant, suppressing the price at high levels. The report is cautiously optimistic, placing the core price range at 75,000 - 95,000 yuan [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Condition - The lithium carbonate futures have rebounded to the previous anti - involution hype high. The January contract reached 88,000 yuan, closing at 86,500 yuan on November 11, up over 20% since mid - October. Trading volume is high, open interest has reached a record high this year, and there are significant differences above 80,000 yuan [1]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Demand Reversal**: Positive factors are accumulating. Demand has unexpectedly reversed, with downstream price - increase factors spreading. Phosphoric acid iron - lithium enterprises are ramping up production, and battery factory orders are increasing due to the progress of pure - electric heavy - truck projects, the peak season of traditional vehicle sales, and the strong demand for energy - storage batteries. The proportion of energy - storage batteries in lithium carbonate consumption has rapidly increased from less than 15% in 2023 to nearly one - third recently [2]. - **Inventory Increase**: Since September, the weekly domestic production of lithium carbonate has hit new highs, rising from 17,000 tons per week to 19,000 tons in late October. However, weekly inventory has been decreasing, indicating strong supply and demand. Since July, due to improved expectations from anti - involution, the inventory level has increased, driving short - to - medium - term demand and warming the spot market [2]. Market Risks and Future Trends - **Risk Points**: Market rumors of earlier - than - expected mine resumptions in Yichun led to a sharp drop in lithium prices to 78,000 yuan. Policy - expectation changes regarding mines will significantly affect market sentiment [4]. - **Supply Situation**: The competitive supply pattern and high supply elasticity are suppressing factors. The supply growth rate of lithium carbonate is expected to remain at around 30% in the next two years. The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants is high, and it is expected that the domestic production of lithium carbonate in November will be roughly flat compared to the previous month [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: The total market inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 124,000 tons, with smelter inventory down 1,300 tons to 31,000 tons, downstream inventory down 1,300 tons to 52,000 tons, and trader inventory down 80 tons to 41,000 tons. High inventory continues to suppress prices at high levels [4]. - **Price Outlook**: The report is cautiously optimistic, placing the core price range at 75,000 - 95,000 yuan [4].

Company Overview - Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group is a leading producer of lithium salt products, particularly battery-grade lithium hydroxide, with industry-leading production technology and equipment [1][2] - The company has a comprehensive production line that is fully automated, enhancing production efficiency and product quality [1][2] Market Position - Yahua is recognized as a core supplier for major global automotive and battery manufacturers, with a strong customer base including Tesla, LGES, and CATL [3] - The company is also a leading player in the civil explosives industry in China, maintaining its competitive edge through strategic mergers and the promotion of electronic detonators [2] Production Capacity - The current comprehensive design capacity for lithium salt is 99,000 tons, with an additional 30,000 tons production line under construction, expected to bring total capacity to nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025 [4] Resource Security - Yahua has established a diversified lithium resource security system through self-controlled and purchased mines, including a significant project in Zimbabwe with an annual processing capacity of 2.3 million tons of raw ore [5] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company experienced significant growth in lithium product sales, achieving a record high for quarterly sales due to stable orders from key customers [6] - The overall business performance improved significantly compared to the same period last year, driven by both lithium and civil explosives sectors [6] R&D Progress - The company has made significant advancements in the development of solid-state battery materials, particularly in the synthesis of lithium sulfide, achieving industry-leading specifications [7] - Plans are underway to begin customer sample testing by the end of the year, with a pilot production line expected to be established in 2026 [7] Risk Management - Yahua employs futures contracts for lithium carbonate to hedge against price volatility, aiming to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose by more than 6%, mainly due to the release of some negative sentiment from the public notice of a mine by the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources. The strong current and expected demand drove the price to rise with increased positions [3]. - The current market has strong supply and demand. It is expected to continue destocking from November to December, but the supply - side expectations are wavering, which may cause significant price fluctuations. Although the SMM monthly output increased by 5.7% month - on - month to 9.23 tons in October and is expected to remain strong from November to December, it still faces the problem of ore shortage. The apparent demand is good, and the production schedule from November to December is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the continuation of demand, the off - season performance in the first quarter of next year, and the renewal policy. The expected demand for energy storage may generate speculative demand when the price drops, raising the price center. The social inventory is continuing to be destocked, and the decline of warehouse receipts should be vigilant. The market is tight in November and December, but if a certain production capacity resumes in the near future, it may ease in December. In the long run, if the price drops due to resumed production, it is a good time to buy at a low price [4]. - The current demand is still strong, and the downstream procurement demand is still strong. After the previous price drop, the price was quickly pulled up to fill the gap, with obvious support. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset, buy appropriately after a pull - back. Due to the expected resumed production and off - season expectations, direct chasing of long positions is not recommended, but long positions can be arranged when the price pulls back [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics - On November 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose by more than 6%, driven by strong demand and the release of some negative sentiment from the mine notice [3]. Fundamental Situation - Supply: SMM monthly output increased by 5.7% month - on - month to 9.23 tons in October, expected to be strong from November to December, but facing ore shortage [4]. - Demand: Apparent demand is good, and the production schedule from November to December is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to demand continuation, off - season performance, and renewal policy. Expected energy - storage demand may generate speculative demand when prices drop [4]. - Inventory and Basis: Social inventory is destocking, and the decline of warehouse receipts should be vigilant [4]. - Balance: The market is tight in November and December. If a certain production capacity resumes, it may ease in December. In the long run, a price drop due to resumed production is a buying opportunity [4]. Summary and Strategy - The current demand is strong, and the downstream procurement demand is high. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset, buy after a pull - back. Do not directly chase long positions, but arrange long positions when the price pulls back [5].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯雅化集团11月10日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司现有锂盐综合设计产能9.9万 吨，雅安锂业新建3万吨高等级锂盐材料生产线正在调试中，预计2025年年底公司锂盐综合产能将达到 近13万吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The profitability of the lithium industry is expected to continue recovering due to multiple driving factors, including the sustained growth in global energy storage and power battery demand, which is boosting lithium salt demand and optimizing the supply-demand structure [1][3]. Group 1: Profit Recovery of Lithium Companies - Several lithium companies, including Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, have reported significant recovery in their financial performance for the third quarter, driven by the rebound in lithium prices [3][4]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded to around 80,650 yuan/ton after a decline earlier in the year, positively impacting the revenues of lithium companies [5]. - Tianqi Lithium achieved an operating income of 7.397 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 5.701 billion yuan in the same period last year [5]. - Ganfeng Lithium reported an operating income of 14.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.02%, and a net profit of 26 million yuan, up 103.99% year-on-year, with a significant increase of 364.02% in the third quarter [5][6]. Group 2: Performance Variability Among Companies - Despite the overall recovery, there is still performance variability among lithium companies due to differences in production costs and resource conditions, with some companies still facing losses [6][7]. - For instance, Shengxin Lithium Energy reported a net loss of 752 million yuan in the first three quarters, with losses expanding by 62.96% year-on-year [6]. Group 3: Cost Optimization Efforts - Companies are focusing on cost control and resource self-sufficiency to enhance their competitive edge and mitigate risks associated with industry cyclicality [8][9]. - Salt Lake Co. has implemented a dual strategy of full industry chain collaboration and lean management to improve cost control and operational efficiency [9]. - Ganfeng Lithium aims to increase its lithium resource self-sufficiency rate to 50%-60% this year, with plans for further improvement as production capacity increases [9]. Group 4: Business Expansion and Innovation - Lithium companies are actively seeking new growth points through increased R&D investment and business expansion, particularly in solid-state battery technology [10][12]. - Yahua Group is advancing the development of lithium sulfide and solid-state electrolytes, with plans to start pilot production by 2026 [12]. - The industry is optimistic about the future demand for lithium driven by the growth of electric vehicles and energy storage markets, despite potential market fluctuations [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely in the range of 77,000 - 83,000 yuan per ton. The 2511 contract closed at 80,460 yuan per ton, up 1,160 yuan per ton week - on - week, and the 2601 contract closed at 82,300 yuan per ton, up 1,520 yuan per ton week - on - week. The spot price decreased by 150 yuan per ton to 80,400 yuan per ton [1]. - The current market is trading on the increase in mining costs rather than the resumption of supply. After the resumption of work in Jiangxi mines, there is still a downward risk in prices. In terms of energy storage demand, the number of tender projects in October decreased month - on - month, and the price of lithium ore has declined but remains at a high level [3]. - For unilateral trading, it is expected that the price of the futures main contract will move in the range of 70,000 - 83,000 yuan per ton. For inter - period trading, no recommendations are provided. For hedging, it is recommended to reduce the hedging ratio [4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium ore dropped from the high of $944 per ton last week to $927 per ton. The prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte increased significantly, with the electrolyte for lithium iron phosphate having the largest increase. The prices of downstream batteries and cathodes were weak [2]. - **Supply**: The weekly output increased to 21,534 tons, and the operating rate rose to 55%. The inventory decreased by 3,405 tons to 124,000 tons compared with last week. Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. needs to pay 247 million yuan in mining rights transfer fees for the lithium ore resources used from February 28, 2022, to August 9, 2025, involving 25.83 million tons of raw ore, and the cost per ton of lithium carbonate is expected to increase by 2,864 yuan [2]. - **Demand**: In October 2025, the domestic energy storage market completed 10GW/29.4GWh of energy storage systems and EPC general contracting tendering for equipment, showing a decline compared with 11.7GW/33.3GWh in September. The average bid price for 2 - hour energy storage systems was 0.628 yuan/Wh, and the bid price range for 4 - hour energy storage systems was 0.43 - 0.65 yuan/Wh, with an average of 0.52 yuan/Wh [2]. 3.2 Charts and Data - **Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side (Lithium Ore)**: There are charts showing the processing profit of spodumene concentrate, the average price trend of spodumene concentrate, the monthly import volume and price of lithium concentrate, and the monthly import volume and price of Australian lithium concentrate [6][7]. - **Lithium Salt Mid - stream Consumption - Side (Lithium Salt Products)**: Multiple charts display the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate in different regions, the price trends of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the processing cost of converting industrial - grade to battery - grade lithium carbonate, the production volume, operating rate, inventory, and import and export volume of lithium carbonate [7][8][9][10]. - **Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side (Lithium Batteries and Materials)**: Charts present the apparent consumption of lithium carbonate in China, the available days of inventory, the monthly production volume and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production volume of various types of power lithium batteries [11][12].

Market Overview - On November 7, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% to 3997 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.51%. Over 3100 stocks in the market declined [1] - Market hotspots focused on organic silicon, fluorine chemicals, phosphorus chemicals, and fertilizers, while sectors like robot actuators and reducers saw declines [1] Stock Performance - High-performing stocks included HeFu China, which hit a 9-day limit up, HaiLu Heavy Industry with a 5-day limit up, and HaiMa Automobile achieving a 6-day limit up [3] - The top three net buying stocks on the daily leaderboard were DuoFluoro, YongTai Technology, and ZhongYiDa, with net purchases of 653 million, 341 million, and 250 million respectively [4] Institutional Activity - The top three net buying stocks involving institutional special seats were DuoFluoro, ShengXin Lithium Energy, and TianHua New Energy, with net purchases of 438 million, 219 million, and 213 million respectively [5] - The top three net selling stocks involving institutional special seats were JingQuanHua, YunNan ZheYe, and DeLiJia, with net sales of 136 million, 122 million, and 7.58 million respectively [6] Sector Highlights - The fluorine chemical sector reported strong Q3 earnings, with companies like DuoFluoro and YongHe shares seeing net profit increases exceeding 190% year-on-year [8] - DuoFluoro expects to ship 50,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2025, with market prices rising to approximately 90,000 yuan/ton post-National Day [8] - ShengXin Lithium Energy's lithium hexafluorophosphate price surpassed 110,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of over 82%, supporting the resilience of lithium carbonate and other new energy metal prices [9] Company Developments - DuoFluoro has developed a fluorine polymer electrolyte and is capable of production and delivery [8] - ShengXin Lithium Energy plans to raise up to 3.2 billion yuan through a private placement to strategic investors, ensuring stable downstream customer relationships [10] - HaiMa Automobile is preparing for the full operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the market [12] Trading Dynamics - Yunnan ZheYe saw a decline of 7.45%, while YongTai Technology hit a limit up with a trading volume of 2.92 billion yuan [15] - The trading activity of notable retail investors included significant net purchases in stocks like JingQuanHua and DuoFluoro [19]