2025 年 8 月 28 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 重点交流 【海外 TMT】精密线缆解决方案商，立讯控股赋能"数据中心+汽车"业务发展—— 汇聚科技（1729.HK）首次覆盖报告(买入) 汇聚科技是定制电线互连方案供应商，立讯精密是控股股东。基于：1）AI 算力维持 景气度，公司数据中心电线组件、特种线缆、服务器 ODM 业务收入持续高速增长； 2）汽车智能化趋势推动汽车线缆需求高速增长，Leoni K 与公司汽车线束相关业务 有望持续发挥渠道、技术等协同效应。我们认为公司具备一定的标的稀缺性和溢价空 间，首次覆盖，给予汇聚科技"买入"评级。 总量研究 【宏观】"反内卷"推动制造业盈利好转——2025 年 7 月工业企业盈利数据点评 7 月受利润率改善推动，工业企业利润同比降幅继续收窄。结构上，原材料行业利润 同比增速大幅反弹，主要受益于"反内卷"政策推动原材料价格上涨。当前随着"反 内卷"政策逐步落地，对于投资端调控、治理低价无序竞争的效果陆续显现，制造业 利润率迎来好转，未来随着市场供需关系的逐步调节，企业将陆续摆脱"以价换量" 局面，企业盈利也将迎来曙光。 行业研究 【建筑】周观点：上海发布楼市新政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Wuchan Zhongda Group Co., Ltd., reported a slight decline in revenue but significant growth in profit metrics for the first half of 2025, indicating resilience and effective management strategies in a challenging market environment [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 288.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.92% [2]. - Total profit reached 3.74 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.03% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.04 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.65% [2]. Business Segments - The core supply chain integration services generated 265.61 billion yuan, accounting for 92.06% of total revenue, with significant growth in key sectors [3]. - Steel sales reached 37.97 million tons, up 6.46% year-on-year, while coal sales increased by 14.13% to 31.90 million tons [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its "One Body, Two Wings" strategy, focusing on smart supply chain services and enhancing operational efficiency [2][3]. - In financial services, the Zhejiang International Commodity Trading Center has attracted 3,619 quality member enterprises, with a pre-sale trading volume of 26.26 billion yuan, a 3.46% increase [3]. - R&D expenses rose by 27.96% to 655 million yuan, supporting the high-end manufacturing sector, which generated 16.08 billion yuan in revenue [3]. Industry Positioning - Wuchan Zhongda is recognized as a leader in supply chain integration services and has been listed among the Fortune Global 500 for 15 consecutive years, ranking 149th in 2025 [2]. - The company is also exploring opportunities in public service sectors such as elder care and environmental services, aligning with government and market demands [4].

Core Viewpoint - Fengnian Capital has successfully closed the first phase of its high-end manufacturing phase III fund at 1 billion yuan, with an expected final size of 2.5 billion yuan, reflecting strong market recognition and support from various mainstream investment institutions [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The high-end manufacturing phase III fund has attracted a diverse and market-oriented investor structure, with over 50% of contributions coming from market-oriented investors, including leading mother funds [1][2]. - The fund aims to invest in technology companies that are at a developmental turning point, with clear market demand and sustained growth [2]. Group 2: Market Context - The fundraising environment in the primary market has been challenging over the past two years, but Fengnian Capital remains active in various aspects of investment management [2]. - The successful first close of the fund is seen as a recognition of Fengnian Capital's decade-long practice in the technology industry and reflects confidence in the long-term development of China's technology sector [2]. Group 3: Investor Insights - Key cornerstone investors, such as Xiamen Jianfa Emerging Investment, highlight Fengnian Capital's mature investment strategies and significant contributions to local technology startups, particularly in management empowerment [3]. - Investors express confidence in Fengnian Capital's ability to identify promising projects and help them overcome development bottlenecks, emphasizing the importance of local resources in driving innovation [3].

Core Viewpoint - Fengnian Capital has successfully closed the first phase of its high-end manufacturing Phase III fund at a scale of 1 billion, with an expected final size of 2.5 billion, reflecting strong market recognition and support from various mainstream investment institutions [1][2][3] Fund Overview - The high-end manufacturing Phase III fund has attracted a diverse and market-oriented LP structure, including leading mother funds and local government guidance funds, with over 50% of contributions coming from market-oriented investors [1][2][3] - The fund aims to invest in technology companies that are at a developmental turning point, with clear market demand and sustained growth [2][5] Investment Strategy - Fengnian Capital focuses on sectors such as big data, automotive and new energy, semiconductors, electronic components, life sciences, and new materials, having successfully invested in notable projects like Dali Kipu and Dameng Data [5][7] - The fund's establishment is seen as a significant growth opportunity for Fengnian Capital, allowing it to enhance its competitive advantage in the technology investment sector [5][8] Market Context - The fundraising environment has been challenging in the past two years, but Fengnian Capital remains active in the industry, aiming to support outstanding technology enterprises that lack sufficient funding [2][3][6] - The investment landscape is shifting towards long-term value creation, emphasizing the importance of management empowerment in the investment process [7][8] Future Outlook - The successful first close of the fund is expected to provide ample resources for investing in representative technology projects that align with national strategic needs [6][8] - Fengnian Capital aims to deepen its integration into the local technology industry, enhancing its role as a key player in driving national strategic goals [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the ongoing stalemate in US-China trade negotiations, with both sides refusing to compromise on key demands [1][3][10] - Trump's threats to increase tariffs on China to 200% if they do not relax their rare earth controls highlight the tension in the negotiations [8][28] - The US has been unable to make significant progress in negotiations, as evidenced by the repeated cycles of proposal, rejection, and stalling [10][12] Group 2 - The US demands include permanent exemptions from existing tariffs, which China views as a form of trade bullying [12][14] - China's strong position in the rare earth market, holding 92% of global processing capacity, gives it leverage in negotiations [14][22] - The US's insistence on China relaxing its high-tech self-innovation policies contradicts its own actions of expanding the entity list against Chinese firms [18][20] Group 3 - China's refusal to negotiate on strategic resource security indicates a firm stance against US pressure tactics [18][26] - The international community's support for China's position, with 46 WTO members expressing concerns over US tariffs, strengthens China's negotiating power [26] - The economic repercussions of Trump's tariff threats are evident, with significant losses reported by US retailers and a decline in stock market value following the announcements [28][29]

8月25日，北京证券交易所（简称"北交所"）北证50指数收盘点位在五个交易日内第三次成功站上1600 点的整数关口。 在区间震荡盘整3个月左右的时间后，北证50指数于8月18日一举突破前期平台，当日大涨100.30点或 6.79%，并于次日盘中创出历史新高1637.50点。 开源证券北交所研究中心总经理诸海滨指出，北证50在突破1500点这一关键平台后，或将进入寻找下一 个新中枢的过程，预计北证50指数新中枢有望处于1450点-1650点。待估值中枢稳定后，北证后续会跟 随A股整体市场和风格情况以确定下一步走势。 多因素共振推动大盘放量突破，业绩验证强化市场信心 北证50的强势突破，主要是政策环境、资金增配、产业趋势与业绩验证等多重因素的共同作用。 截至8月22日，106家北交所公司披露2025年中报，其中65%公司收入同比增速为正（19家公司增速超 30%）、58%公司归母净利润同比增速为正（31家公司增速超30%）106家公司收入增速的中值为8%、 归母净利润增速的中值为11%，整体情况良好。 整体来看，锦波生物、广信科技、民士达、建邦科技、朗鸿科技、卓兆点胶、海能技术和并行科技等19 家公司收入和归母净 ...

创投基金为何总能快人一步，精准押注未来？在笔者看来，这主要在于创投基金能够发现价值，敢于承 担风险，而创投基金之所以能够发现价值又敢于承担风险，则依赖于一项复杂的系统工程。 ■邢萌 机器人赛道近期持续火热，机器人大赛、机器人运动会、机器人消费节等各类活动层出不穷，宇树科 技、松延动力等明星企业的一举一动都备受瞩目。而这些明星企业得以暂时"领跑"，都离不开背后创投 基金的支持。 事实上，这些明星企业往往在成立之初，就已被创投基金提前"锁定"。这并非个例，在低空经济、高端 制造等新兴产业，创投基金始终扮演着产业先导者角色，投资往往早于行业爆发期。 创投基金总能快人一步的一大因素在于其敢于"试错"。通过高风险投资博取高收益回报的商业逻辑使创 投基金愿意为未来的不确定性买单。新兴产业的技术路线不成熟、市场前景不明朗，相关科创企业虽有 高成长潜力但也伴随着高风险，创投基金秉持"试错即机会"理念，愿意以单个项目试错成本验证对赛道 趋势的精准判断，以此不断校准未来投资锚点。反过来，这种试错式包容，也进一步筛选出真正符合新 质生产力方向的优质企业，促进新兴产业发展。 然而，创投基金也并非盲目冒险，它们具有专业风险评估体系与科 ...

Current Situation of Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently experienced a rare strong rally, rising from 3700 points to 3800 points in just five trading days, with only minor fluctuations during this period [2] - On August 22, the index reached a ten-year high, closing at 3825.12 points, with a peak intraday value of 3825.68 points, marking the highest level since June 2015 [2] - The trading volume in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for eight consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest duration of trillion-yuan trading [2] Factors Driving the Rise of Shanghai Composite Index - The acceleration of domestic substitution in the context of global technology industry chain restructuring is a core driving force [3] - There is a significant increase in demand for autonomy in sectors like semiconductors and high-end manufacturing, attracting substantial capital to the technology sector [3] - For instance, orders for leading chip manufacturing equipment company North China Huachuang increased by over 60% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, while orders for AI computing infrastructure provider Invec have been scheduled into the fourth quarter due to surging demand [3] Key Factors Influencing Short-term Trends - Historical data indicates that the third quarter is a critical observation phase for economic half-year reports and policy implementation, which can significantly affect market sentiment and capital flow [4] - Two key variables to monitor for short-term trends include the performance differentiation within the technology sector and the stability of foreign capital flows, with August seeing a 30% increase in daily volatility of northbound capital despite maintaining net inflows [4] Potential Risks and Challenges - Despite the index breaking through a key level, potential market risks are notable, including the semiconductor sector's rolling price-to-earnings (PE) ratio reaching 65 times, significantly above historical averages [5] - As the mid-year performance disclosure period approaches, high-valuation stocks may face critical validation regarding whether their growth rates can match their valuations [5] - Additionally, uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have resurfaced, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 55% to 32% in August, potentially increasing volatility in foreign capital flows [5] Investment Recommendations and Strategies - Given the current market environment, a "cautiously optimistic" investment approach is advised [6] - Investors should focus on technology stocks with core technological barriers and high order visibility, particularly in semiconductor equipment and AI computing infrastructure [6] - A "staggered entry" strategy is recommended to gradually build positions during short-term market pullbacks, avoiding the risks of chasing high prices [6] - Investors should closely monitor key events such as August PMI data and the Federal Reserve's September meeting to adjust their portfolio structures in response to market fluctuations [6]

Current Situation of Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently experienced a rare strong rally, rising from 3700 points to 3800 points in just five trading days, with only minor fluctuations during this period [2] - On August 22, the index reached a ten-year high, closing at 3825.12 points, with a peak intraday value of 3825.68 points, marking the highest level since June 2015 [2] - The trading volume in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for eight consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest duration of trillion-yuan trading [2] Factors Driving the Rise of Shanghai Composite Index - The acceleration of domestic substitution in the context of global technology industry chain restructuring is a core driving force [3] - There is a significant increase in demand for autonomy in sectors such as semiconductors and high-end manufacturing, attracting substantial capital into the technology sector [3] - For instance, the leading chip manufacturing equipment company, North Huachuang, reported a more than 60% year-on-year increase in orders for the first half of 2024 [3] Key Factors Influencing Short-term Trends - Historical data indicates that the third quarter is a crucial observation period for economic half-year reports and policy implementation, which can significantly affect market sentiment and capital flow [4] - Two key variables to monitor for short-term trends are the performance differentiation within the technology sector and the stability of foreign capital flows, with August seeing a 30% increase in daily volatility of northbound capital despite net inflows [4] Potential Risks and Challenges - Despite the index breaking through a key level, potential risks remain significant, particularly with the semiconductor sector's rolling price-to-earnings (PE) ratio reaching 65 times, well above historical averages [5] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has increased, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 55% to 32% in August, which may exacerbate fluctuations in foreign capital flows [5] Investment Recommendations and Strategies - Given the current market environment, a "cautiously optimistic" investment approach is advised [6] - Investors should focus on technology stocks with core technological barriers and high order visibility, particularly in semiconductor equipment and AI infrastructure [6] - A "staggered entry" strategy is recommended to gradually build positions during short-term market pullbacks, while closely monitoring key events such as August PMI data and the Federal Reserve's September meeting [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights that 75 companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) have disclosed their semi-annual reports, with 54 companies showing year-on-year revenue growth and 69 companies reporting positive net profits, indicating strong resilience and growth potential in the BSE market [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Among the BSE companies, notable performers include Zhuozhao Adhesive, which achieved revenue of 156 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 207.46%, and a net profit of 26.78 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 12.02 million yuan in the previous year [2] - Haineng Technology reported total revenue of 136 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 34.87%, with a net profit of 5.47 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 14.01 million yuan [2] - Several companies, including Jinfeng Biological and Mingyang Technology, are planning mid-term dividends to reward investors, reflecting their strong financial performance [4] Group 2: Industry Trends - The BSE companies are increasingly focusing on high-value, high-growth emerging sectors, such as computing services and new energy materials, benefiting from the digital economy and energy transition [2][3] - The report indicates that the companies are characterized by significant innovation, with R&D investments translating into technological advantages and core competitive barriers [2] - The ongoing policy support and market dynamics are expected to provide a broad space for growth, particularly in sectors like new energy, high-end manufacturing, and the digital economy [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the BSE has a promising future, driven by continuous policy benefits, deepening reforms, and the increasing presence of state-owned enterprises in the AI sector [4] - The BSE is home to many "little giant" companies that focus on niche markets and possess core technologies, which are likely to benefit from domestic substitution and industrial upgrades [4] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong R&D investments, high customer recognition, and clear management strategies while being cautious of overvaluation and competitive risks [4]