Core Viewpoint - An attack occurred near the Tabriz oil refinery in northwestern Iran, resulting in significant smoke rising from the site [1] Group 1 - The incident highlights ongoing security concerns in the region, particularly related to oil infrastructure [1] - The attack may impact oil production and supply stability in Iran, a key player in the global oil market [1]

据伊朗迈赫尔通讯社：伊朗西北部大不里士炼油厂附近发生袭击，浓烟升起。 ...

财料 炼油厂、核设备、军事基地，哪些伊朗的战略设施遭到了袭击？ 相关链接 ...

伊朗的阿巴丹炼油公司发表声明称，公司正在全力生产和提供稳定的服务，且这方面的服务没有中断。 ...

智通财经6月13日电，伊朗称炼油厂和储油罐未受损。 ...

全球炼油业加速绿色转型 近日，有咨询机构分析预测，随着汽油利润率下降以及碳排放压力加大，全球超过20%的炼油产能（约 390万桶/日）面临关闭风险，欧洲炼厂形势尤其严峻。预计到2035年欧洲炼油产能将关闭30%以上。其 次，欧盟碳价已突破90欧元/吨，5年内增长4倍，使得欧洲炼厂的运营成本大幅增加。 对此，霍尼韦尔能源与可持续技术集团中国副总裁兼总经理孙建能表示，目前，全球炼化产业重心正在 加速东移，亚太地区正成为炼化产业新重心。炼化行业发展，与汽车电动化进程密切相关，并且在产业 发展进程中，技术创新迭代与生产线转型升级发挥着关键作用。炼化行业的转型升级，在过"绿"关上， 要下足功夫。 据统计，近年来，中国炼油产能稳定在10亿吨左右，炼油能力全球第一；国内炼油资本开支大幅放缓， 从份额扩张迈入高质量发展阶段。减油增化与原料轻质化同步推进。孙建能表示："在炼化行业，霍尼 韦尔协助行业客户找准碳排放的主要来源和可行的减排方法与技术，在原料、工艺、排放、运营等方面 有针对性地提出行业减排的技术方案。借助霍尼韦尔UOP的工艺技术，企业能从每滴石油、每立方天然 气和每吨煤炭中创造更大价值。" 技术创新：驱动减油增化与低 ...

据路透计算：俄罗斯7月份的主要线下炼油能力由此前的计划上调21%，达到320万吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is expected to reach 2 million tons by 2025, which will only account for 0.7% of total aviation fuel usage. Despite the doubling of production from 1 million tons in 2024, exponential growth is necessary to meet the aviation industry's net-zero carbon emissions target by 2050 [1]. Group 1: SAF Production and Demand - SAF is derived from sustainable sources such as biomass and waste cooking oil, potentially reducing lifecycle carbon emissions by up to 85% compared to traditional fossil fuels [3]. - The European Union mandates that all flights departing from its airports must blend a certain percentage of SAF, starting with 2% in 2025, which translates to a demand of nearly 1 million tons, double the global market demand in 2023 [3][4]. - China aims for a SAF consumption of over 20,000 tons in 2025, with a cumulative consumption of 50,000 tons, representing 0.2% of its annual aviation fuel consumption [4]. Group 2: Industry Participation and Production Capacity - Several domestic companies are entering the SAF production sector, including Sinopec, which has developed SAF production capabilities and partnered with TotalEnergies to produce 230,000 tons annually [5]. - As of now, China has established a SAF production capacity of 350,000 tons, with various companies utilizing waste cooking oil as a primary raw material [5][6]. Group 3: Cost Challenges and Market Dynamics - The average cost of SAF is projected to be 3.1 times that of traditional aviation fuel in 2024 and 4.2 times in 2025, primarily due to compliance fees imposed by fuel suppliers [8]. - The price of traditional aviation fuel is expected to decrease by 13% in 2025, further exacerbating the cost disparity between SAF and conventional fuels [8]. - To achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, the aviation industry may face costs as high as $4.7 trillion, necessitating government policies to stimulate SAF production and reduce costs [8][9].

Group 1 - A fire occurred at a refinery owned by Russian company Lukoil, which is a key asset in the Russian fuel industry [1] - Lukoil primarily supplies aviation, armored vehicle, and logistical fuel to the Russian military [1] - There has been no official statement from the Russian side regarding the incident [1]

Core Insights - The focus of the recent IATA annual meeting was on reducing the procurement costs of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and establishing a shared responsibility mechanism among airlines [1] - SAF production is projected to reach 2 million tons by 2025, which will only account for 0.7% of total aviation fuel usage, indicating a need for exponential growth to meet the industry's net-zero carbon emissions target by 2050 [1][2] - The aviation industry is under pressure to reduce carbon emissions, with SAF being a key solution to decarbonization [1][2] SAF Production and Demand - SAF is derived from sustainable sources such as biomass and waste oils, and can reduce lifecycle carbon emissions by up to 85% compared to traditional fossil fuels [2] - The EU has set strict SAF usage targets, requiring a 2% blend by 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030, and 70% by 2050, which translates to a demand of nearly 1 million tons of SAF by 2025 [2] - China aims for a SAF consumption of over 20,000 tons in 2025, with a cumulative total of 50,000 tons, representing 0.2% of its annual aviation kerosene consumption [2] Industry Developments - Several Chinese airlines have conducted verification flights using SAF, with a pilot program initiated in September 2024 to incorporate SAF into domestic flights [3] - Domestic companies, such as Sinopec and Junheng Bio, are increasingly entering the SAF production sector, with Sinopec planning to produce 230,000 tons annually in collaboration with TotalEnergies [4][5] - China has established a SAF production capacity of 350,000 tons, with ongoing investments to expand this capacity further [4] Cost and Market Dynamics - The average cost of SAF is currently 3.1 times that of traditional aviation fuel, projected to rise to 4.2 times by 2025 due to compliance fees and decreasing traditional fuel prices [6] - The IATA estimates that achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 could incur costs of up to $4.7 trillion if current SAF prices persist, highlighting the need for government incentives to stimulate market growth [6][7] - Industry experts emphasize the necessity for large-scale production and competitive pricing of SAF to meet carbon reduction goals, similar to the support provided for renewable energy sources [7]