【冠通期货研究报告】 关注下游需求持续性 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 27 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面高开高走，日内上涨。行情稳中有所好转，报价抬升，低价报价反 弹后，收单依旧良好。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1580-1610 元/吨，反弹 10 元/吨左右，高端报价在河北地区。基本面来看，日产 大幅偏高于历年同期，气头装置季节性停产以前，上游工厂装置日产将高位运行， 今日日产数据同比去年偏高 6%左右。复合肥工厂开工继续进行，一方面冬储肥 生产以后，生产负荷逐步爬升，虽近期预收单状况欠佳，但目前待发依旧充足， 预计下周将继续提升开工率。本期复合肥工厂开工环比回升 2.45 个百分点。近 期价格上涨以来，下游终端拿货速度有所提高，拿货积极性明显增加，叠加储备 需求，库存连续数周去化，本周环比回落 5.1%。整体来说，供需双增，尿素价格 低位偏强震荡，价格上下均有压制，盘面价格窄幅波动为主，目前需求以储备型 需求为主，持续性不足，关注价格上涨后下游接受情况。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1653 元/吨开盘, 高开高走，日内上涨，最 终收于 1668 元/吨， ...

交易所数据显示，11月27日，亚钾国际收盘43.71元，上涨3.28%，滚动市盈率PE（当前股价与前四季度 每股收益总和的比值）达到22.50倍，总市值403.90亿元。 从行业市盈率排名来看，公司所处的化肥行业行业市盈率平均27.62倍，行业中值23.13倍，亚钾国际排 名第15位。 亚钾国际投资(广州)股份有限公司的主营业务是钾盐矿开采、钾肥生产及销售业务。公司的主要产品是 氯化钾。 最新一期业绩显示，2025年三季报，公司实现营业收入38.67亿元，同比增加55.76%；净利润13.63亿 元，同比增加163.01%，销售毛利率58.91%。 序号股票简称PE(TTM)PE(静)市净率总市值(元)8亚钾国际22.5042.503.09403.90亿行业平均 27.6231.933.25212.98亿行业中值23.1329.772.0279.68亿1云天化9.9110.482.31558.93亿2史丹利 11.0813.111.48108.28亿3新洋丰12.2514.681.68193.10亿4芭田股份12.8227.933.12114.28亿5云图控股 16.0116.121.40129.71亿6川金 ...

2025 年 11 月 27 日 【行业新闻】 尿素：区间运行，日内主要跟随现货情绪 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,654 | 1,630 | 2 4 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,649 | 1,633 | 1 6 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 208,209 | 97,807 | 110402 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 229,335 | 234,315 | -4980 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,390 | 7,302 | 8 8 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 686,604 | 319,523 | 367081 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -24 | 0 | -24 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -154 | -130 | -2 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 库存连续数周去化 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 26 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面低开高走，日内偏强。现货价格依然走弱，但受期货上涨影响，市 场低价成交良好，部分工厂出现停售现象。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿 素出厂价格范围在 1570-1620 元/吨，低端价格成交较好，高端价位成交氛围一 般。基本面来看，日产目前大幅偏高于历年同期，预计在气头装置季节性停产以 前，上游工厂装置日产将在 19 万吨以上波动，煤炭成本端，上涨趋势放缓，下 游需求有待验证，若旺季证伪，成本端支撑将下移。本期复合肥工厂开工负荷回 升，上周环保检查结束后，企业装置逐渐恢复生产，且东北地区部分装置开始开 工，部分装置开工负荷已提升至较高水平，目前企业通过原料采购情况进行预收 单的处理。近期价格上涨以来，下游终端拿货速度有所提高，拿货积极性明显增 加，叠加储备需求，库存连续数周去化，本周环比回落 5.1%。 整体来说，市场 低价成交增多，需求好转，盘面价格反弹，上方供应充足压制下，反弹受限。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1630 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，日内偏强，最 终收于 1654 元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, domestic urea demand is limited, but with the new quota issuance, the impact of the international market on the domestic market increases. The acceptance of lower prices by downstream users has improved, and short - term urea is expected to be range - bound. In the medium - term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades, overall demand is weak, and urea is expected to be in a weak trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures rebounded, closing at 1654 (+21/+1.29%) [3]. - Spot market: Factory prices were stable with a downward trend, and trading improved. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On November 26, the daily urea production in the industry was 20.34 million tons, an increase of 0.24 million tons from the previous working day and 1.17 million tons from the same period last year. The current operating rate was 84.10%, a decrease of 0.72% from 84.82% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - Shandong: The mainstream factory price was weakly stable, market sentiment cooled, industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, raw material and finished product inventories were high, and new orders were scarce. Factory prices were expected to be weakly stable [5]. - Henan: Market sentiment was weak, factory prices followed the increase, trading volume decreased, and factory prices were expected to operate weakly [5]. - Areas around the delivery area: Factory prices were firm, market sentiment was average, demand in the Northeast increased, but new orders were weak. Factory prices were expected to remain stable [5]. - Overall supply and demand: Maintenance devices returned, daily output increased to around 20.4 million tons. On the demand side, the fourth batch of quotas was issued, and the impact of international prices on the domestic market increased again. The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China basically ended, and the demand was declining. The inventory of urea production enterprises decreased by 7.33 million tons to around 1.36 billion tons, remaining at a high level [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high levels, do not chase short positions [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Great Wall Securities indicates that Yara International's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.363 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 163.01% [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for Q3 was 508 million yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.99% [1] - The sales gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 58.91%, an increase of 9.79 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue Drivers - The significant year-on-year profit growth is primarily attributed to increased sales volume and rising sales prices of potash fertilizers [1] Valuation and Outlook - Based on the closing price on November 25, the corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 21, 14, and 11 times for the respective years [1] - The company is expected to continue releasing potash production capacity and expanding its non-potash business, which may further enhance profit growth potential, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Urea futures have shown a slight upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 1663.00 yuan and closing at 1660.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.65% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Everbright Futures, the urea market is expected to continue a low-level wide fluctuation trend due to high supply levels and weak demand, with daily production at 201,100 tons, a slight decrease from the previous day [2] - Zhonghui Futures indicates that the supply side pressure remains, with daily production reaching 202,500 tons, and anticipates that production will remain high before the upcoming maintenance of gas-based enterprises [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that while there has been a slight decrease in prices, the overall supply-demand balance remains loose, predicting a return to a stagnant fluctuation after price corrections [4] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand side is characterized by mixed signals, with limited agricultural demand ahead of the new year, while exports of urea and other fertilizers have been relatively strong [3] - The market shows a divergence in performance across regions, with some areas experiencing higher sales rates, while overall inventory levels remain high compared to previous years [2] - The ongoing "export quota system" and "price stabilization measures" are influencing the market dynamics, leading to a situation where urea prices have both upper and lower limits [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The urea spot price has slightly declined, with the trading atmosphere weakening recently after being good last week. The start - up rates of compound fertilizer and melamine have increased, and the off - season storage is gradually entering the market. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The fourth - batch export quota news has improved the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market. The author suggests a range - bound strategy for unilateral trading and a wait - and - see approach for inter - period trading, with no cross - variety strategy [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On November 25, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,630 yuan/ton (-8). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,640 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,630 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton (-2), in Henan was 10 yuan/ton (-2), and in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton (+8) [1]. 3.2 Urea Production - As of November 25, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (with a 0.08% change). The specific production data is shown in the "Urea Weekly Production" chart [1]. 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 25, 2025, the urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (-10). The national capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%), with coal - based capacity utilization rate and gas - based capacity utilization rate details shown in relevant charts [1]. 3.4 Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of November 25, 2025, the urea export profit was 1,012 yuan/ton (+6). In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons, which has improved the year - end export expectation [1][2]. 3.5 Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 25, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 34.61% (+4.29%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 62.20% (+4.72%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-0.59) [1]. 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 25, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4372 million tons (-46,400), and the port sample inventory was 100,000 tons (+18,000) [1].

西北化工销售公司事业部宁夏化肥线经理姚薇表示："现在，我们的每一步操作都基于前期扎实的市场 分析，既能借助实货与期货锁定基差预售打开销路、支撑贸易量稳步扩张，又能依靠期货对冲价格变动 风险，为客户提供更多销售模式，实现'高质量扩销'与'风险可控'的双重目标。" 今年以来，国内尿素市场深度调整，价格一路下行，传统随行就市的销售模式难以适应复杂的市场环 境。西北化工销售公司加强市场研判，组建专业分析团队，结合宏观政策导向与期货市场基差规律，精 准预判出"实货价格短期仍有下滑空间，期货价格相对抗跌"的动态市场特征。在此基础上，该公司采 取"实货预售、现货即期采购，同时买入期货对冲风险"模式，扩销1万吨尿素，形成期现结合的贸易模 式。 中化新网讯 近日，中石油西北化工销售公司与四川农资化肥有限责任公司完成1万吨尿素期现结合贸易 业务。这是西北化工销售公司首次开展尿素期现结合贸易。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating [1][2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, domestic urea demand remains limited, with agricultural demand ending and compound fertilizer not yet starting on a large scale. The spot market sentiment is still low. The domestic - international price difference is large, and the new quota issuance increases the impact of the international market on the domestic one. Urea is expected to be mainly range - bound. In the medium term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades, overall demand is weak, and urea is expected to be weak [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures oscillated and declined, closing at 1630 (-7/-0.43%) [3] - Spot market: The ex - factory price was stable with a downward trend, and the trading volume was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 25, the daily urea production in the industry was 20.11 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.10 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.17%, a decrease of 0.94% compared to 84.11% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory price was stable with a downward trend, market sentiment cooled, industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, raw material inventory was abundant, finished product inventory was high, grass - roots orders were scarce, and the ex - factory price was expected to be stable with a downward trend. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, the ex - factory price followed the increase, and it was expected to operate weakly. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory price was firm, the demand in the Northeast increased, and the ex - factory price was expected to be temporarily stable. Overall, the supply was loose, the demand was declining, and the inventory was high [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high levels, do not chase short [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]