Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Yara International, one of the world's largest fertilizer producers, indicated that the company may reconsider or abandon its planned low-carbon ammonia project in Louisiana, USA, if the EU decides to suspend the carbon border tax on fertilizer imports [1] Group 1: Project Implications - The low-carbon ammonia project was strategically designed to respond to and leverage the market environment created by the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) [1] - CBAM imposes taxes on high-carbon traditional fertilizers, providing critical price competitiveness and commercial logic for clean products like low-carbon ammonia to enter the European market [1] - Yara's collaboration with Air Products aims to utilize abundant natural gas resources in the US combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to produce "blue ammonia" for export to Europe [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The potential suspension of the carbon border tax by the EU, due to internal agricultural pressures, undermines the foundational business model of Yara's low-carbon ammonia project [1] - Yara stated that multiple low-carbon projects in Europe will also need to be reassessed as a result of this potential policy change [1] - The EU climate commissioner emphasized that the suspension of the CBAM on fertilizers is a temporary measure to address farmer pressures, with the long-term goal of implementing CBAM remaining unchanged [1]

Core Viewpoint - Algeria's Sonatrach and Oman's Suhail Bahwan Group are discussing enhanced cooperation in the energy and chemical sectors, focusing on the development of fertilizer projects such as ammonia and urea [1] Group 1: Cooperation and Development - The meeting evaluated existing cooperation and exchanged views on localizing ammonia and urea production in Algeria [1] - Algeria aims to leverage its natural gas resources and existing infrastructure to develop the fertilizer industry, which will extend the energy industry chain, increase added value, and enhance export capacity [1] Group 2: Investment Environment - Algeria has implemented reforms in the energy and investment sectors, including optimizing the legal framework and improving the investment environment [1] - The Bahwan Group expressed interest in expanding investments in Algeria and is willing to promote cooperation on a mutually beneficial basis [1]

Core Viewpoint - Algeria and Indonesia are deepening economic cooperation in the energy and mining sectors, focusing on oil and gas, mineral resources, and the phosphate and fertilizer industries [1] Group 1: Economic Cooperation - Algeria's Minister of Energy and Mining, Mohamed Arkab, met with a senior delegation led by Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Agriculture to discuss strengthening industrial cooperation [1] - A memorandum of understanding was signed between Algeria's phosphate mining company (part of the national mining group) and Indonesia's state-owned fertilizer company "Pupuk Indonesia" to collaborate in phosphate supply, joint development, and deep processing [1] Group 2: Project Development - The memorandum outlines plans to conduct technical and economic feasibility studies to assess the export of Algerian phosphates to Indonesia and explore fertilizer production and related derivative projects [1] - This initiative aims to promote economic diversification, enhance the added value of the mining sector, and strengthen long-term cooperation between the two countries in food and industrial security [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ivorian government has implemented a 9% Value Added Tax (VAT) on specific products as part of its 2026 fiscal law tax reforms, aiming to balance tax collection, industry competitiveness, and input price control [1] Group 1: Tax Implementation - The VAT applies to products including jute and sisal fiber trading, livestock and poultry feed, feed production inputs and their packaging, as well as fertilizer production inputs and their packaging [1] - The initial VAT rate was set at 18%, which has been reduced to 9% to mitigate the impact on the relevant industries [1] Group 2: Government Challenges - The government faces challenges in balancing tax collection, industry competitiveness, and the control of input prices amidst the new tax implementation [1] - Previous measures announced by the government aimed at supporting livestock and optimizing feed production may be affected by the increased production and procurement costs resulting from the VAT [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Bearish rebound [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PX/PTA**: Range - bound [2] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously avoid shorting [2][3] - **Urea**: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bullish [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Bearish continuation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish continuation [6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Extreme cold weather drives up gas prices, leading to an oil price rebound. However, there is a supply - surplus situation in the off - season, and geopolitical uncertainties remain [1][8][9]. - **LPG**: Follows the cost - end oil price. In the medium - to - long - term, the oil price is under pressure, and the LPG price has room for compression [1][14][15]. - **L**: Cost support improves, but the spot price has not stopped falling. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short term [1][19]. - **PP**: Follows the cost to rebound in the short term. The fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, and the short - term supply pressure eases [1][23]. - **PVC**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [1][26]. - **PX/PTA**: Valuation is not low, with supply and demand in a tight balance. It is expected to perform well, but there are risks of negative feedback from the demand side and excessive oil price drops before the Spring Festival [2][28]. - **MEG**: Valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. The supply increases, and the demand weakens seasonally. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2][31][32]. - **Methanol**: The valuation is not low, and the supply - demand situation is slightly loose. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the rebound height may be limited [2][35][37]. - **Urea**: The absolute valuation is not low. The comprehensive profit is good, and the supply load is rising. The demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season [3][39][41]. - **Natural Gas**: Cold air drives up gas prices, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the upward space of gas prices may be limited [6][45][46]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material end provides support, and the price remains stable. However, there are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials and the compression space for spreads [6][49][50]. - **Glass**: The supply and demand are both weak. In the absence of further cold - repair implementation, it should be treated bearishly [6][54]. - **Soda Ash**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, and the demand support is insufficient. It should be treated bearishly before further intensification of maintenance [6][58]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose by 0.43%, Brent fell by 0.60%, and the domestic SC rose by 0.59% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Cold air drives up gas prices, pushing up oil prices. The Middle - East geopolitical situation eases but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. In the short - term, it is in a volatile adjustment, and the SC should be monitored in the range of [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On January 21, the PG main contract closed at 4064 yuan/ton, up 0.12% month - on - month [13]. - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the medium - to - long - term. The supply is stable, and the downstream chemical demand is resilient [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG price has compression space. The PG should be monitored in the range of [3050 - 3150] [15]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract's related data shows certain price and volume changes [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, the linear production schedule increases, but the spot price has not stopped falling. The terminal replenishment is insufficient, and it is expected to follow the cost fluctuation [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6600 - 6800] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [21]. - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds with the cost in the short term. The supply and demand are both weak, and the PDH profit is compressed, increasing the maintenance expectation [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6450 - 6600] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The liquid caustic soda price drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [4650 - 4850] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the supply is affected by device maintenance, the downstream demand weakens seasonally, and the cost end is in a weak balance [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, with the TA05 monitored in the range of [5130 - 5220] [29]. MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is low, the domestic supply load increases, the demand weakens seasonally, and the inventory accumulates [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds, with the EG05 monitored in the range of [3680 - 3760] [32]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent market - review section. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the domestic and overseas device loads decline, the supply pressure eases, and the demand weakens slightly [35][36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply pressure eases in January, and the demand is suppressed by weak olefin demand. The MA05 should be monitored in the range of [2200 - 2250] [37]. Urea - **Market Review**: The UR05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the supply load rises, the demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season, and the inventory is still relatively high [39][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter - storage benefit is limited, the supply pressure is expected to increase, and the UR05 should be monitored in the range of [1760 - 1790] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On January 20, the NG main contract closed at 3.183 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 17.80% month - on - month [44]. - **Basic Logic**: Cold air drives up demand and gas prices. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the inventory situation is known [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the winter consumption season, the demand supports the gas price, but the upward space may be limited. The NG should be monitored in the range of [4.866 - 5.496] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 21, the BU main contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, up 0.57% month - on - month [48]. - **Basic Logic**: The raw material end provides support, the cost profit declines, the supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory increases [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spread valuation returns to normal but still has compression space. There are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials. The BU should be monitored in the range of [3150 - 3250] [50]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply and demand are both weak, the demand is in the off - season, and the weak demand suppresses the upward space [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1030 - 1080] [54]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [56]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support from float glass is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1150 - 1200] [58].

Group 1 - The global fertilizer market is entering a high-price and tight balance phase, with ongoing supply disruptions in overseas nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers leading to an upward shift in price levels. Potash is expected to see high cost-performance demand potentially exceeding expectations [1][2] - As of January 22, 09:44, the chemical ETF (159870.SZ) rose by 0.55%, and the related index for segmented chemicals (000813.CSI) increased by 0.74%. Key constituent stocks such as Wanhua Chemical rose by 1.07%, Jinhai Technology by 3.44%, Cangge Mining by 1.68%, Hebang Bio by 6.17%, and Hengli Petrochemical by 1.60% [1] - In the nitrogen fertilizer sector, due to risks in Iran and the Middle East, the FOB price for granular urea in the Middle East is currently between $420 and $430 per ton, while the CFR price for urea in Brazil and Southeast Asia is between $430 and $440 per ton. China will not lift urea exports during the spring plowing season, indicating that the global urea market has entered a new high-price platform [1] Group 2 - In the phosphate fertilizer sector, China's sulfuric acid exports halved from January to April, raising global phosphate production costs. From January to August, phosphate exports were suspended, reducing global phosphate supply. The CFR prices for MAP and DAP in Brazil have increased by approximately $40 per ton since the beginning of the year, currently ranging between $680 and $700 per ton, supported by rising sulfur/sulfuric acid costs [2] - For potash, the CFR prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia are currently between $360 and $380 per ton, showcasing a prominent cost-performance advantage compared to nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. Institutions believe that the demand for potassium chloride may further replace nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers by 2%-3% [2] - Since 2024, there has been strong demand for potash from China, India, and Brazil, with current inventories at low levels, indicating significant potential for further increases in global potash prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The urea price is expected to be volatile in the short term and bullish in the medium term, with obvious support at the bottom for both futures and spot prices due to the strong expectation of post - Spring Festival agricultural demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,775 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,768 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the trading volume was 175,891 lots, an increase from the previous day; the open interest of the 05 contract was 233,074 lots, down 2,813 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 13,355 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 621.93 million yuan, an increase of 211.744 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was - 25 yuan, down 3 yuan; the basis of Fengxi - disk was - 145 yuan, down 3 yuan; the basis of Dongguang - disk was - 45 yuan, down 3 yuan; the spread between UR05 - UR09 was 26, unchanged [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged, while Shandong Ruixing's price dropped by 20 yuan to 1,725 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong area remained unchanged at 1,750 yuan/ton, and in Shanxi area dropped by 10 yuan to 1,630 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply - side Indicators**: The operating rate was 85.19%, up 0.47 percentage points; the daily output was 200,580 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons [1] Industry News - On January 21, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 946,000 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.07%. The inventory reduction was mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Some enterprises in the main production and sales areas had a slight inventory build - up, but the overall inventory decreased due to the demand in the Northeast region [2] - The overall spot trading of urea has been weak in recent days, and the spot price is expected to remain stable [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from the Qinghai Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology regarding the reduction of potassium chloride production capacity for Cangge Mining's subsidiary, Golmud Cangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., from 2 million tons per year to 1.2 million tons per year is a strategic move that aligns with the company's long-term development strategy focused on comprehensive resource utilization and sustainable development [1]. Group 1 - The production capacity of Golmud Cangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. has been reduced from 2 million tons/year to 1.2 million tons/year as per the government announcement [1]. - The company reported a KCl resource reserve of 23.0966 million tons, with a designed production scale of 1.2 million tons/year [1]. - The actual production of potassium chloride has been around 1 million tons/year in recent years, indicating that the capacity reduction aligns with the current resource situation and will not significantly impact annual production, sales, or operational performance [1]. Group 2 - The capacity reduction is based on the resource status and aims to facilitate a more scientific and reasonable planning of salt lake resource development [1]. - The adjustment supports the company's long-term strategy of focusing on potassium as the main product while promoting comprehensive utilization and a circular economy [1].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement indicates a significant reduction in the potassium chloride production capacity of Cangge Mining's subsidiary, which may impact the company's operational output and market position [1] Group 1: Company Impact - Cangge Mining's subsidiary, Golmud Cangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., has had its potassium chloride production capacity reduced from 2 million tons per year to 1.2 million tons per year [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The reduction in production capacity reflects regulatory changes from the Qinghai Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, which may indicate a broader trend in the industry regarding capacity management and environmental considerations [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) announced a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase approximately 1.232 million shares at a cost of about HKD 12.49 million on January 21, 2026 [1] Group 1 - The company plans to spend approximately HKD 12.49 million for the buyback [1] - The total number of shares to be repurchased is 1.232 million [1]