1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In July 2025, the urea price remained in a narrow - range operation. With the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, inventory destocking was slow, and the basis and inter - monthly basis were weak. However, the absolute price of urea was low, and both fixed - bed and gas - based processes were in losses, showing a pattern of low valuation and weak drivers. Although there were export rumors driving price rebounds, the cost support was strengthening, and the downside space for urea was limited. It was recommended to wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In July, the urea price maintained a narrow - range operation. With the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, inventory destocking was slow, and the basis and inter - monthly basis were weak. The low price was accompanied by export rumors that drove price rebounds. The cost support was strengthening, and the downside space was limited [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: In July, the domestic production was 6.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and at a high level year - on - year. The operating rate was 84.3%, showing a decline for three consecutive months. The enterprise profit was still at a low level, limiting the overall operating enthusiasm. The export containerization continued to progress, with 70,000 tons exported in June, and it was expected to further increase [12]. - **Demand**: The production of autumn fertilizers started in July, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers continued to rise, becoming an important support for urea demand. Supported by exports, the enterprise's advance orders were performing well [12]. - **Valuation**: The price difference between domestic and international markets was still large, and the domestic market was significantly undervalued. The price ratio with related nitrogen fertilizers was at a medium - low level, and the spot valuation of urea was low [12]. - **Inventory**: The departure volume from ports was more than the containerization volume. The port inventory this week was 493,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons. The enterprise inventory was 917,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58,500 tons, due to the weakening of domestic agricultural demand and the less - than - expected export connection [12]. - **Market Logic**: Currently, the market was in a pattern of low valuation and weak drivers, with strong cost support at the bottom. The price continued to fluctuate, and the volatility decreased significantly. Without additional positive factors, it was difficult to break out of the shock range, and the cost - effectiveness of unilateral participation was not high [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: The price of the 09 contract increased from 1,712 to 1,714, a change of 2; the 01 contract increased from 1,682 to 1,736, a change of 54; the 05 contract increased from 1,696 to 1,775, a change of 79. The 9 - 1 spread decreased from 30 to - 22, a change of - 52; the 1 - 5 spread decreased from - 14 to - 39, a change of - 25; the 5 - 9 spread increased from - 16 to 61, a change of 77 [13]. - **Domestic Spot Market**: The spot prices in Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia decreased, while the price in Henan remained unchanged. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei all declined [13]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of compound fertilizers in Shandong and Hubei increased, while the price of melamine decreased. The profit of compound fertilizers in Shandong decreased, the profit of compound fertilizers in Hubei decreased slightly, and the profit of melamine increased [13]. - **International Prices**: The FOB prices in the Arabian Gulf, the Baltic Sea, and other regions increased, and the FOB price in China also increased. The urea export profit increased from 1,002 to 1,187 [13]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The enterprise profit continued to decline. The profits of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - based production all showed a downward trend [32][33]. - **Urea Inventory**: Due to the low price and the boost from Indian tenders, the downstream enthusiasm rebounded, and the enterprise inventory was being destocked. The port inventory decreased, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly [36][37]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Urea Capacity**: There were planned new production capacities in 2024 - 2025, including Anhui Quansheng Chemical, Henan Jinkai Yanhua, etc. [45]. - **Urea Operating Rate**: The operating rate fluctuated downward. Many enterprises carried out maintenance, including Shaanxi Aowei Qianyuan Chemical, Inner Mongolia Wulantai Energy Chemical, etc. There were also planned maintenance in August - September for some enterprises such as Shanxi Lu'an Coal - based Synthetic Oil [47][50][51]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption**: The consumption of urea was affected by factors such as compound fertilizer production, melamine production, and exports. The operating rate of compound fertilizers continued to rise, and the export profit of urea was high [58][81]. - **Terminal Demand**: The terminal demand was related to industries such as plywood, real estate, etc. The export volume of plywood and the real - estate indicators such as housing construction and sales had an impact on the demand for urea [71][74]. - **Export**: The export profit of urea was relatively high, and the export volume was expected to increase. The export volumes of related nitrogen fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and ammonium chloride also showed certain trends [81][82][88]. 3.6 Option - related - The report presented data on the trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of urea options, as well as the relationship between option volatility and futures prices [97][99][106]. 3.7 Industrial Structure Diagram - The report showed the urea industry chain, research framework analysis mind - map, and the characteristics of the urea industry chain. It also provided an overview of the seasonal demand for fertilizers in different regions of China and major countries around the world [109][112][114].

工业刚需托底盘面 【冠通研究】 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日低开高走，日内震荡偏弱。现货市场及交投情绪疲软，受出口消息的 影响，大颗粒小颗粒价格走势背离。基本面来看，供应端有小幅减产预期，近 期日产维持在 19 万吨左右的水平，减产占比低，目前暂不能改变供应过剩格 局，需求端，农业需求零星拿货为主，复合肥工厂开工率继续攀升，且预计将 持续上行，开工负荷拉升后，后期对尿素需求增加，但目前市场情绪均不高， 工厂以适量拿货为主，预售单的情况下，不急于原料的采购，并且秋季复合肥 以高磷复合肥为主。本期装置检修增加，尿素转为库存去化，出口消息扰动盘 面价格波动，但数据不及预期，行情下挫。目前下游普遍观望，情绪跟进较为 谨慎，并且复合肥工厂后期预计不会集中拿货了，短期偏空震荡为主，但后续 依然有工业需求的托底，后续行情下方空间有限。 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 1400 1800 2200 2600 3000 3400 山东尿素市场主流价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 9.398 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.63%, with a net profit of 951 million yuan, up 28.98% year-on-year [3]. - The performance of the main products is robust, with revenue from phosphate fertilizers increasing by 39.34% year-on-year, while conventional compound fertilizers saw a decline of 6.66%. New-type compound fertilizers grew by 26.83% [3]. - The gross profit margins for phosphate fertilizers, conventional compound fertilizers, and new-type compound fertilizers increased by 4.27, 0.14, and 2.58 percentage points respectively, leading to an overall gross margin increase of 1.28 percentage points to 17.34% [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading producer of phosphate compound fertilizers in China, with a production capacity of 10.28 million tons per year for various high-concentration phosphate fertilizers and 900,000 tons per year for phosphate rock as of the end of 2024 [7]. Product Performance - New-type fertilizers have shown rapid growth, with sales increasing from 548,500 tons in 2018 to 1.38 million tons in 2024, a compound annual growth rate of 16.63%. The proportion of new-type fertilizers in the overall compound fertilizer sales rose from 16.56% in 2018 to 31.67% in 2024 [4]. Capacity Expansion - The company is optimizing its production capacity across the country, including a new project in Aksu, Xinjiang, with a capacity of 350,000 tons per year for new-type fertilizers, and a planned investment in a 1 million tons per year specialized fertilizer project in Huai'an, Anhui [4]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.47 billion yuan, 1.68 billion yuan, and 1.91 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 1.15 yuan, 1.31 yuan, and 1.49 yuan [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - New Yangfeng (000902.SZ) reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 11.63% and a net profit growth of 28.98% in the first half of the year, but experienced a slight decline in revenue and a slowdown in profit growth in the second quarter compared to the first quarter [1][2] Company Performance - In the first half of the year, New Yangfeng achieved a revenue of 9.398 billion yuan, up 11.63% year-on-year, and a net profit of 951 million yuan, up 28.98% year-on-year [2] - The company's revenue and net profit for the second quarter were 4.730 billion yuan and 436 million yuan, respectively, indicating a decline in revenue compared to the first quarter [2] - The sales revenue of phosphate fertilizer and new compound fertilizer increased by 39.34% and 26.83%, respectively, while conventional compound fertilizer sales revenue decreased by 6.66% [3] Industry Outlook - The overall performance of listed fertilizer companies in the first half of the year was strong, with significant profit increases reported by companies like Batian and Chuanheng due to rising sales prices and stable profit margins [4] - Analysts predict that the raw material market will experience high margins with narrow fluctuations, while the profit margins for compound fertilizers may struggle to improve [5]

近日，财政部与生态环境部联合发布《企业可持续披露准则第1号——气候（试行）（征求意见 稿）》（以下简称《气候准则征求意见稿》），标志着我国可持续信息披露准则体系建设取得重要进 展。 "《气候准则征求意见稿》旨在规范企业披露气候相关风险、机遇和影响的信息，向投资者、债权 人、政府及其有关部门和其他利益相关方提供重要的气候相关信息，以便其做出经济决策、资源配置或 者其他决策。"中央财经大学绿色金融国际研究院ESG中心联合主任杨晨辉表示，该文件的发布标志着 可持续信息披露准则工作的重要进展，同时充分表明我国全力推进并引领社会经济高质量发展的决心。 可持续披露准则体系建设稳步推进 2023年以来，财政部稳步推进我国可持续披露准则体系建设。2024年5月，财政部发布《企业可持 续披露准则——基本准则（征求意见稿）》；同年11月，财政部等九部门联合印发《企业可持续披露准 则——基本准则（试行）》（以下简称《基本准则（试行）》），拉开了国家统一的可持续披露准则体 系建设序幕，为气候准则等具体准则的制定奠定了基础。 在《基本准则（试行）》中，财政部明确了企业可持续披露准则整个体系包括基本准则、具体准则 和应用指南三大模块。具 ...

上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 08 月 08 日 新洋丰 (000902) ——新型肥及磷肥放量增厚利润，盈利能力持续优化， 25Q2 业绩略超预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 15,563 | 9,398 | 17,806 | 19,405 | 20,955 | | 同比增长率（%） | 3.1 | 11.6 | 14.4 | 9.0 | 8.0 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,315 | 951 | 1,753 | 2,016 | 2,318 | | 同比增长率（%） | 9.0 | 29.0 | 33.3 | 15.0 | 14.9 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.05 | 0.76 | 1.40 | 1.61 | 1.85 | | 毛利率（%） | 15.6 | 17.3 | 16.3 | 17.1 | 17.9 | | ROE（%） | 12 ...

Price Trends in Various Markets - The national production material market prices remained stable from July 28 to August 3 compared to the previous week [1] - Non-ferrous metal prices experienced slight declines, with zinc, copper, and aluminum decreasing by 1.4%, 0.9%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - Rubber prices saw minor decreases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber falling by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively [2] Fertilizer and Steel Prices - Fertilizer prices were predominantly down, with urea decreasing by 0.4% while compound fertilizers saw a slight increase of 0.1% [3] - Steel prices showed slight fluctuations, with hot-rolled strip steel and rebar priced at 3615 yuan and 3475 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.8% and 0.4% respectively; channel steel increased by 0.8% to 3701 yuan per ton [3] Energy and Chemical Prices - Wholesale prices for refined oil saw slight increases, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline rising by 0.3%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively [4] - Coal prices experienced minor increases, with coking coal and thermal coal priced at 959 yuan and 759 yuan per ton, rising by 1.8% and 0.3% respectively; the price of No. 2 smokeless lump coal remained stable at 1129 yuan per ton [4] - Basic chemical raw material prices continued to rise, with soda ash and sulfur increasing by 1.2% and 1.0% respectively; polypropylene prices remained stable while methanol decreased by 0.6% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - The urea market shows a mixed picture. The domestic market has an obvious oversupply situation with high daily production and falling demand, while international prices are relatively strong. The report expects the UR contract to trade sideways today [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamental factors: The urea futures market has been trading sideways recently. The previous increase in raw material prices caused by anti - involution sentiment has started to reverse. Domestic supply, including daily production and operating rates, remains at high levels, and inventories are rising again. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are both falling, and agricultural demand is also in a seasonal slump. The overall domestic urea market has a significant oversupply, and the export policy has not been liberalized more than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 43, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.4%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 147.7 million tons (+4.6), which is bearish [4]. - Futures market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - Main positions: The net position of the UR main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is trading sideways. International urea prices are strong, but the domestic market still has an obvious oversupply. It is expected that the UR contract will trade sideways today [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - Bullish factors: International prices are strong [5]. - Bearish factors: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - Main logic: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - Spot prices: The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-20), the Shandong spot price is 1800 (-10), and the Henan spot price is 1780 (0). The FOB China price is 2908 [6]. - Futures prices: The price of the 09 contract is 1737 (-13), the UR01 contract is 1757 (-10), and the UR05 contract is 1793 (-9). The basis of the 09 contract is 43 (-7) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry has seen continuous growth in production capacity, with growth rates ranging from 8.9% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, and apparent consumption have also generally increased. For example, in 2018, production was 1956.81, net imports were 448.38, and apparent consumption was 2405.19. By 2024, production reached 3425, net imports were 360, and apparent consumption was 3785 [10].

Core Viewpoint - New Yangfeng Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. demonstrated robust growth in its 2025 semi-annual report, with significant increases in both revenue and net profit, reflecting its strong market position and strategic effectiveness [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 9.398 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.63% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 951 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 28.98% [1] Group 2: Strategic Focus and Capacity Optimization - New Yangfeng is implementing the "Three Doubles and One More" strategy, focusing on two main sectors: phosphate fertilizers and new energy materials, along with fine chemicals [2] - Key projects are progressing, including the construction of the Hubei Yichang Phosphate New Materials Circular Economy Industrial Park and the trial production of a 150,000-ton water-soluble fertilizer production line in Xinjiang Akesu [2] - The company is enhancing its capacity layout to better withstand market fluctuations and maintain cost advantages [2] Group 3: Technological Innovation - The company is strengthening its technological innovation by advancing the "One Institute and Four Research Institutes" initiative [3] - Collaboration with academic teams has led to significant breakthroughs in agricultural technology, including the ARC biological coupling technology that addresses key agricultural challenges [3] - New Yangfeng has launched seven types of green slow-release fertilizers, significantly improving fertilizer efficiency and market competitiveness [3] Group 4: Service System Enhancement - The company is deepening its "Manufacturing + Service" business model, providing specialized products and a comprehensive agricultural service model for farmers [4] - An online platform, "Yangfeng Shennonghui," has been established to disseminate scientific planting knowledge and improve crop quality [4] Group 5: Digital Transformation - New Yangfeng is advancing its digital transformation, achieving breakthroughs in intelligent decision-making for phosphate mining and automated processes in sulfuric acid production [5] - The company is promoting digital projects that enhance safety and precision in nutrient control, while also focusing on digital talent development [5] - The company aims to continue its strategic focus and management capabilities to achieve high-quality growth [5]

Group 1 - The stock price of Stanley closed at 9.09 yuan on August 7, 2025, down 1.41% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 78,176 hands, with a transaction amount of 71 million yuan [1] - Stanley is a leading compound fertilizer producer in China, with its main business covering the research, production, and sales of compound fertilizers, controlled-release fertilizers, and water-soluble fertilizers [1] Group 2 - The company's products are widely used in agricultural production and hold an important position in the chemical fertilizer industry [1] - On August 7, the net inflow of main funds was 205.57 million yuan, but the cumulative net outflow over the past five trading days was 2,664.39 million yuan [1] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the company is 9.08 times, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.53 times [1]