广发期货研究所 化工组 金果实 从业资格：F3083706 投资咨询资格：Z0019144 氯碱周报 S H ：氧化铝采 买价提涨支撑， 盘 面反复 关 注 现货及仓单 V ： 近 端现货显 疲 弱 ， 驱动不足盘 面再度转跌 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 烧碱主要观点：短期看烧碱检修集中阶段供应压力有限，需求端，氧化铝伴随近期利润好转部分存复产预期，叠加新产线支撑需求。山东主流厂采买价上近期连续四次提涨， 当前已涨至800元/湿吨，支撑现货价格。且当前看仓单较少或反映当前供需面仍强，但非铝端压力增加以及烧碱成本下降后估值逐步走高形成风险。单边维持观望；6-9正套尝试。 PVC主要观点：PVC近期的反弹主要基于中美关税缓和带来的宏观刺激、BIS政策延期至6月下后出口维持积极以及PVC自身检修集中及库存同比压力有限的供需面支撑。但中长 线PVC在地产难见有效提振下仍表现出明显的过剩压力，而印度BIS及反倾销税始终作为潜在利空存在。且伴随期现反弹，本周现货市场反映偏淡，当前盘面已有震荡回落势头，中 线维持高空思路对待，09上方阻力位一线看5100附近。 周 ...

数据来源：隆众资讯、Bloomberg、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证,本报告反映研究 人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不拘成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所 有,未经广发期货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制,如引用、刊发,需注明出处为'广发期货'。 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 5月26日 | 5月23日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent | 65.25 | 64.78 | 0.47 | 0.73% | | | WIT | 62.00 | 61.53 | 0.47 | 0.76% | 美元/桶 | | ਟ | 456.80 | 4 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: The market will face pressure in the later stage. Although the downstream replenishment in May supports the market, the sustainability of stockpiling is crucial. After replenishment, the market may short the chlor - alkali profit under the negative demand feedback. The market may show a positive - spread downward trend. The supply side will see more maintenance in June, especially in Shandong. The cost side has more room to decline due to the drop in coal and electricity prices, but the change in liquid chlorine price also needs attention. The strategy is to go short on rallies before significant supply cuts [5]. - **PVC**: It will fluctuate weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to ease. The high - production pattern will continue in the short term due to low costs and high caustic soda profits. The high - inventory pressure persists, and the export demand can only relieve it temporarily. The domestic demand related to real estate is still weak, and the procurement enthusiasm is low after the price rebound. Profit compression and supply cuts are needed to balance supply and demand [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 View Summary - **Caustic Soda**: The current situation is strong, but the expectation is weak. The market may decline in a positive - spread pattern. Do not be overly bearish below 2400. The key to the performance of 09 and 10 contracts lies in the scale and sustainability of maintenance from June to August [5]. - **PVC**: The high - production and high - inventory problem persists. The domestic demand is hard to improve continuously, and profit compression and supply cuts are required for balance [10]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - **Price**: The cheapest deliverable product price in Shandong is about 2656 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spread**: The 09 basis and 7 - 9 month spread of caustic soda are strengthening. The 50 - alkali to 32 - alkali spread is slightly higher than the evaporation cost, which is bullish for caustic soda. The export still supports the market in June, but there will be a price game between domestic and foreign parties. The arbitrage space between Shandong and South China is average [23][28][32]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - **Market Structure**: The production is rising, and the inventory is falling. The current domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 84.1%, a 1.5% increase from the previous week [44]. - **Maintenance**: Pay attention to the maintenance scale from June to August, with concentrated maintenance in Shandong in June [48]. - **New Capacity**: The planned new capacity in 2025 is 255 tons, but the actual expansion may be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2%. Pay attention to the commissioning of Tianjin Bohua and Gansu Yaowang in June - July [49][52]. - **Chlor - consuming Downstream**: The start - up of some downstream industries such as propylene oxide and dichloromethane has changed, which has a limited impact on caustic soda supply due to its high profit [58][69]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - **Alumina**: The start - up and inventory are declining, and the profit is rebounding. Some regions are still in a loss state. The new capacity is still being put into production, and the demand for caustic soda may expand if there is a resumption of production [74][78][84]. - **Paper Pulp**: The capacity expansion continues, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of the finished paper industry is lower than the same period [85][90]. - **Other Industries**: The start - up of viscose staple fiber is declining, the printing and dyeing start - up is flat, the water treatment start - up is rising, and the ternary precursor start - up is stable [95][98][100]. 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis and 9 - 1 month spread are strengthening [110]. 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The start - up rate is declining month - on - month but has not reached the 2023 reduction level. There will be more maintenance in the Northwest from June to August. The new capacity in 2025 will reach 210 tons, with concentrated commissioning of 110 tons in June - July [115][116][117]. - **Demand**: The real - estate demand is still weak. The downstream start - up is rising month - on - month but is weak year - on - year. The export has certain demand in the early stage but is expected to weaken later due to the Indian rainy season and BIS policy. The warehouse receipt quantity will rise again [123][129][138].

Consumption - Auto consumption shows significant improvement with a notable increase in wholesale and retail sales, leading to a strong performance in this sector[9] - Service consumption experiences fluctuations due to holidays but shows a marginal improvement overall[49] Investment - Infrastructure bond issuance accelerates, with a total of CNY 1.37 trillion issued as of May 11, 2025, including CNY 177.6 billion in the first ten days of May[16] - Real estate market remains under pressure, with new home transaction area in 30 cities dropping from a year-on-year growth of 10.6% to 1.2%[16] Trade - Vietnam's exports grow by 21.0% year-on-year in April, driven by re-export and transshipment activities[21] - Domestic port operations slow down, with a decline in the number of ships docking and departing from major ports[21] Production - Overall production indicators show a marginal decline, particularly in power generation, steel, petrochemicals, and automotive sectors[28] - Coal consumption for power generation experiences a seasonal decline, indicating a potential short-term reduction in industrial electricity usage[28] Inventory and Prices - Industrial inventories, except for cement, are generally on the rise, with coal inventories nearing historical highs[38] - Consumer prices (CPI) show a marginal increase, while industrial prices (PPI) decline, reflecting a mixed pricing environment[43]

Consumption - Automotive consumption remains high, with wholesale and retail sales showing a slight decline due to seasonal factors, but the four-week average year-on-year growth rate remains stable[4] - Service consumption is relatively flat, with urban congestion indices decreasing and subway passenger flow rebounding, although overall numbers are slightly down year-on-year[4] Investment - Infrastructure investment is accelerating, with special bond issuance reaching CNY 1.48 trillion as of May 18, 2025, and CNY 285.2 billion issued in the first 18 days of May[11] - Real estate transactions in 30 cities show a seasonal rebound but year-on-year growth has dropped from 6.3% to -15.0%[14] Trade and Port Operations - Import and export activities have rebounded due to tariff adjustments, with port operations improving and the number of ships docking at ports increasing significantly[17] - Export freight rates have seen a notable increase, with Shanghai and Ningbo export rates rising by 10.0% and 6.5% respectively[17] Production - Power generation coal consumption has rebounded, indicating marginal recovery in production, with some industries showing improved operating rates[19] - The steel and petrochemical sectors have seen slight improvements in operating rates, although some areas still face year-on-year declines[20] Inventory and Prices - Most inventories have decreased, except for coal and cement, which have seen increases, with coal inventories reaching historical highs[32] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased while Producer Price Index (PPI) has increased, indicating a stabilization in industrial product prices overall[34] Currency and Liquidity - The Chinese Yuan has appreciated to 7.20 against the US dollar, with the dollar index rising by 56 basis points due to favorable US economic data[39] - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 and DR007 rising by 5 and 10 basis points respectively[36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes three main investment themes in the chemical industry: focusing on high ROE core assets, growth opportunities from domestic substitution in new materials, and the importance of agricultural chemicals and civil explosives [1] - In 2024, the chemical product prices are expected to decline, with a slight increase in revenue for listed companies, but a decrease in profitability, indicating the industry is still in a bottoming process [1] - The average CCPI for 2024 is projected to be 4560 points, a year-on-year decrease of 2.56%, while the average for Q1 2025 is expected to be 4343 points, down 5.80% year-on-year and 0.44% month-on-month [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the chemical industry achieved a total revenue of 5860.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.84%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 360.16 billion yuan, also up 5.63% year-on-year [2] - Among 18 sub-industries, net profits increased year-on-year, while 15 sub-industries saw declines; 29 sub-industries improved their profits quarter-on-quarter, with only 4 experiencing declines [2] Group 3 - The growth rate of construction projects in the chemical industry turned negative for the first time in Q1 2025, indicating a tightening of expansion efforts [3] - The total fixed assets in the basic chemical industry reached 15086.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.49%, while the total amount of construction projects decreased by 9.13% year-on-year [3] Group 4 - The average inventory scale in the chemical industry increased by 6.00% year-on-year to 4078.05 billion yuan, while the inventory turnover days slightly decreased [4] - The operating cash flow turned positive in Q1 2025, with a net inflow of 135.82 billion yuan, reversing from a net outflow in the previous year [4] Group 5 - The chemical industry is currently underweight in institutional holdings, with a market value proportion of 3.78% in actively managed public funds, indicating a potential for value appreciation [5] - The proportion of heavy holdings in the petroleum and petrochemical sector is also low, suggesting a similar underweight situation [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC faces high inventory and supply pressure, with weak domestic demand, and its upward space is restricted. Continued attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - The overall supply - demand drive of caustic soda is expected to be weak, and there is insufficient upward momentum for prices. Attention should be paid to upstream device maintenance and downstream demand procurement rhythm [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,969 yuan/ton (+20), the East China basis was - 149 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China basis was - 79 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,820 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,890 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 605 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,980 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 206 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was - 658 yuan/ton (+47), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was - 526 yuan/ton (+126), and the PVC export profit was 1.9 US dollars/ton (+1.6) [1]. - PVC inventory and start - up: The PVC in - factory inventory was 40.6 tons (-2.0), the PVC social inventory was 39.7 tons (-1.3), the PVC calcium carbide method start - up rate was 75.52% (-4.47%), the PVC ethylene method start - up rate was 70.06% (-2.20%), and the PVC start - up rate was 74.01% (-3.84%) [1]. - Downstream order status: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 63.2 tons (+11.1) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,527 yuan/ton (-18), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 98 yuan/ton (+18) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,400 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,634 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 730.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 198.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,471.75 yuan/ton (+131.31) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 41.59 tons (+2.75), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.92 tons (-0.11), and the caustic soda start - up rate was 82.60% (-1.30%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate was 75.47% (-0.29%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China was 63.23% (+2.55%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate was 80.65% (-0.35%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: There are many new maintenance enterprises, and the previously maintained devices continue to shut down. The PVC start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, and the maintenance increase has led to a month - on - month decline in the PVC factory inventory, but the overall supply remains high [3]. - Demand side: The start - up of PVC downstream product enterprises has rebounded but is still at a low level in the same period. The start - up of PVC pipes, profiles, and films is weakly stable. The downstream market mainly purchases on a rigid - demand basis at low prices, and the weakness on the demand side is difficult to reverse [3]. - Exports: Export orders are delivered stably, the PVC social inventory continues to decline, but the destocking rate is slow. The uncertainty of India's anti - dumping and BIS certification policies will still affect PVC exports [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: There are many new maintenance enterprises, and some previously maintained enterprises have not resumed production. The overall caustic soda start - up rate has decreased, but under the support of profits, most manufacturers maintain high - load operation, and the supply - side pressure is still relatively large [3]. - Demand side: The spot price of alumina, the main downstream product, has rebounded, the production profit of the alumina industry has significantly recovered, and the production reduction efforts may weaken under the support of profits. At the same time, the possibility of resuming production of previously maintained and production - reduced enterprises has increased, and the caustic soda consumption demand is expected to further increase in the later stage. The purchase price of 32% caustic soda by the main alumina factory in Shandong has been raised to 800 yuan/ton, which may further boost the caustic soda price. Non - aluminum downstream terminals still have certain resistance to high - priced goods, the procurement mentality is cautious, mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and the start - up of terminals such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing is still at a low level in the same period, and the non - aluminum demand is still expected to be weak [3]. - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory pressure is still relatively large [3].

氯碱日报 | 2025-05-21 主力下游采购价再上调，烧碱盘面震荡运行 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4949元/吨（-10）；华东基差-129元/吨（+0）;华南基差-69元/吨（+10）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4820元/吨（-10）；华南电石法报价4880元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；电石利润206元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-658元/吨（+47）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-526元/吨（+126）；PVC出口利润0.3美元/吨（+0.6）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存40.6万吨（-2.0）；PVC社会库存39.7万吨（-1.3）；PVC电石法开工率75.52%（-4.47%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.06%（-2.20%）；PVC开工率74.01%（-3.84%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量63.2万吨（+11.1）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2545元/吨（-41）；山东32%液碱基差80元/吨（+41）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价840元/吨（+ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the achievements of Cui Ermei, a technician at Haohua Yuhang Chemical Co., who has made significant contributions to the company's innovation and efficiency in the production of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) [1][2]. Group 1: Professional Development and Contributions - Cui Ermei joined Haohua Yuhang in 2002 after graduating from university and quickly immersed herself in practical training to master the equipment and technology [2]. - She has authored multiple technical papers, including studies on the use of low-mercury catalysts in PVC production and the recycling of waste sodium hypochlorite [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Innovations - Under Cui's leadership, the company achieved a reduction in catalyst consumption to 0.85 kg per ton of PVC, generating an annual economic benefit of over 10 million yuan [4]. - The implementation of an automatic slag discharge technology for wet acetylene generators reduced chemical oxygen demand (COD) and saved 34.9 tons of electricity annually [5]. - A project led by Cui to modify the catalyst introduction process in 108 cubic meter polymerization kettles increased PVC production by over 7,000 tons per year, resulting in an additional economic benefit of over 4 million yuan [6].

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月20日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 5月19日 | 5月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 | 7330 | 7520 | -190 | -2.53% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7238 | 7236 | 2 | 0.03% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7137 | 7248 | -111 | -1.53% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7078 | 7093 | -15 | -0.21% | | | L2505-2509 | 92 | 284 | -192 | -67.61% | | | PP2505-2509 | 59 | 155 | -96 | -61.94% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7160 | 7170 | -10 | -0.14% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7300 | 7300 | 0 | 0.00% | | | ...