gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。铝市基本面矛盾依然有限,社库窄幅波动,表观需求并无亮眼表现。短期宏观 主导，宽松交易延续,贵金属和有色多品种创新高,沪铝跟涨为主,多头背靠40日线持有,关注前 高位置阻力。 【铸造铝合金】 昨日保太ADC12现货报价上调100元至21300元。 铸造铝行业库存和交易所仓单窄幅波动, 税务调整 令部分地区成本面临上调。宏观驱动下铸造铝合金高位跟涨乏力，与沪铝价差维持千元附近。 (氧化铝) (原油) 美方人员21日在委内瑞拉附近国际水域拦截油轮并登船检查，这是不到两周时间里，美国为施压委 内瑞拉而实施拦截的第三艘油轮。乌克兰无人机在黑海港口袭击了俄罗斯船只。她缘紧张关系的持 续升级加剧了市场对原油供应中断的忧虑,原油价格反弹。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属延续强势。近期美国数据有利于降息的延续,地缘方面以色列和伊朗、美国和委内瑞拉 之间现紧张氛围。黄金周一突破前高刷新历史新高，贵金属短期趋势得到强化。国内资金是铂把多 头主力,外盘跟涨内盘为主,国内积极计价远月铂供不应求,推升内外价差,但内外盘合约月份不 匹配,价格可比 ...

Copper - Copper prices experienced narrow fluctuations overnight, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses [3][9] - The macroeconomic outlook shows significant divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts next year, while the market focuses on the new chairman's ability to maintain the Fed's policy independence [3][9] - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months [3][9] - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,650 tons to 157,750 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 4,247 tons to 423,556 tons [3][9] - Demand for copper is cautious, with downstream enterprises primarily purchasing based on immediate needs [3][9] - The strategy suggests maintaining a buy-on-dips approach but advises against excessive chasing of prices [3][9] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 2.42% to $15,260 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 2.82% to ¥122,130 per ton [4][10] - LME inventory decreased by 162 tons to 254,388 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,320 tons to 38,922 tons [4][10] - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association indicated a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026 [4][10] - Nickel prices saw a slight increase due to market sentiment, but caution is advised regarding actual implementation [4][10] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2601 closing at ¥2,515 per ton, up 0.56% [5][11] - SHFE aluminum experienced a slight decline, with AL2602 closing at ¥22,135 per ton, down 0.47% [5][11] - The market is facing pressure from increased shipments and the resumption of large-scale mining operations [5][11] - The aluminum price trend is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and macroeconomic sentiment [5][11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at ¥8,595 per ton, down 0.52% [6][12] - Polysilicon prices also experienced a decline, with the main contract closing at ¥58,845 per ton, down 2.1% [6][12] - There are expectations of further environmental production cuts in the northwest, which may support industrial silicon prices [6][12] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 3.98% to ¥114,380 per ton, with significant increases in both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices [7][14] - Weekly production of lithium increased by 47 tons to 22,045 tons, while demand for ternary materials decreased [7][14] - The market is experiencing strong demand expectations, with downstream stocking intentions remaining relatively strong [7][14]

2026 年度中国期货市场投资报告 铜：需求结构重塑 沪铜步入新纪元 有色金属/铜 内容提要： ◆ 2025 年铜市在"政策扰动+供应紧缩"双重驱动下走出历史级行情。年初 政策预期升温推升价格；二季度关税冲击与矿端收紧博弈，价格深跌反弹； 三季度高位震荡，事件与政策交织；四季度宏观压制缓和、供应焦虑加剧， 推动铜价强势突破，沪铜主力合约年末突破 9.4 万元/吨，伦铜触及 1.16 万 美元/吨，双双创历史新高。 ◆ 宏观层面，美联储全年降息三次，但进程分歧明显，年末定调"鹰派落 地"，2026 年降息节奏预计缓慢且反复。国内"十五五"规划开局，政策托 底明确，高质量发展主线为铜需求提供结构性支撑。中美贸易政策仍是重要 变量，关税预期间歇性扰动市场情绪与贸易流向。 ◆ 供给端进入紧平衡阶段。全球铜矿产量增速仅约 1%，新增项目贡献不 足，地缘与运营风险持续侵蚀供应弹性。铜精矿 TC/RC 深陷负值并进一步下 探，冶炼行业盈利模式崩塌，步入"负利润"生产常态。2026 年全球精炼铜 产量增速或转为负增长，标志产能扩张周期迎来强制性调整。 ◆ 需求端结构性分化延续。新兴领域仍是核心动能，新能源汽车渗透率突破 53 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The consumption of copper is under short - term pressure, while supply concerns and macro - expectations jointly boost the copper futures market. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai copper 2602 closed at 93,180 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 1.05% week - on - week. The overall trend of Shanghai copper this week was volatile. The over - expected slowdown of US inflation, continued cooling of employment, pressure on China's November fixed - asset investment and real estate, and accelerated contraction of the eurozone's December manufacturing PMI affected the market. Although the expectation of US interest rate cuts boosted the market, there were still disturbances in reality. The consumption was weak, and the copper spot premium dropped significantly [2]. 2. Operating Logic - **Macro**: US inflation slowed down more than expected, and employment continued to cool. The Bank of Japan emphasized prudent actions in the future. China's November new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI accelerated its contraction [2][39][42]. - **Supply**: The port inventory of copper concentrates increased week - on - week but was lower year - on - year. The BM negotiation was still deadlocked. The domestic electrolytic copper production in December was expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year, with the impact of previous maintenance restored [2]. - **Demand**: The operation of refined copper rods was restricted and was expected to continue to decline next week. The transaction areas of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities decreased year - on - year last week. The production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year. The retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China from December 1 - 14 decreased by 4% year - on - year. The production of photovoltaic modules in December was expected to decline, but the local price rose slightly this week [2]. - **Inventory**: The spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to increase week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly. LME copper inventory decreased with a high cancellation ratio, while COMEX inventory continued to accumulate [2]. 3. Influencing Factors Analysis Price Data - The consumption was weak, and the spot premium dropped significantly. The LME copper 0 - 3M premium weakened week - on - week [11][12]. Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by 0.57 dollars/ton to - 43.65 dollars/ton week - on - week and remained at a low level. The port inventory of copper concentrates was 680,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons week - on - week but lower year - on - year. The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased week - on - week. The domestic electrolytic copper production in December was expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products from January to November was 4.883 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. The spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to increase week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly. LME copper inventory decreased with a high cancellation ratio, while COMEX inventory continued to accumulate. The operation of refined copper rods was restricted and was expected to continue to decline next week. The retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China from December 1 - 14 decreased by 4% year - on - year and increased by 1% compared with the same period last month. The production of photovoltaic modules in December was expected to continue to decline. The production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year [16][19][22]. Macroeconomic Data - China's November new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI accelerated its contraction. US inflation slowed down more than expected, and employment continued to cool [39][42][43]. 4. Recommended Strategy - Considering the over - expected slowdown of US inflation, continued cooling of employment, the Bank of Japan's emphasis on prudent actions in the future, weak consumption, significant decline in copper spot premium, and low year - on - year port inventory of copper concentrates, it is recommended to go long at low prices [2].

消息面上，LME铜价飙升至创纪录高位，逼近每吨12000美元。高盛近期发布了一份2026年大宗商品报 告，其中指出，受需求强劲和供应受限因素，铜仍备受青睐。国信证券此前指，公司国内大型露天铜矿 成本低、盈利稳健，贵金属价格上涨进一步摊低铜矿成本，主导的全球最大露天钨矿投产放量，参股第 一量子即将走出低谷期，盈利潜力大，充分受益于铜价上行周期。 江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.63%，报38.26港元，成交额4.73亿港元。 ...

铜周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 美国通胀降温，铜价震荡上行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周铜价震荡上行，美国11月CPI降温强化明年降息基准 预期，美联储鸽派官员支持明年缓慢降息，认为当前政策 利率仍比中性利率高出50-100个基点，日央行兑现加息或 引发全球套利市场的结构性变革，但对金属市场影响较为 有限；国内方面，中国高技术工业产出增速较快，社零维 持稳健增长，中央经济工作会议释放政策延续的积极信 号，消费品以旧换新政策持续推进；基本面来看，海外精 矿维持紧缺，全球非美地区库存偏低，国内终端消费稍显 乏力，内贸现货转向贴水，近月盘面C结构走扩。 ⚫ 整体来看，温和的通胀数据将宽松叙事朝着有利于鸽派的 方向 ...

铜行业观点交流 20251221 摘要 2025 年全球精炼铜供应因矿山事件和智利供应问题减少至少 50 万吨， 抵消了部分地区需求疲软的影响，使得市场对铜价的强预期成为现实。 中国市场 2025 年铜消费增速虽经多次调整，最终稳定在 3.8%，高于 年初预期，主要受抢出口、光伏风电政策和价格下跌等因素驱动，对全 球铜价形成支撑。 10 月后铜价快速上涨对终端企业产能利用率和订单产生冲击，产能利用 率从 90%-100%降至 60%-80%，但长期来看，高铜价将被产业链逐 步消化，并推动铝代铜现象发展。 空调行业正制定铝管替代铜管标准，预计 2026 年 1 月实施，若推广成 功，每年或减少十几万吨至二三十万吨铜用量，但具体影响取决于市场 接受度。 美国纽约地区铜库存高达 46 万吨，可满足两个季度用量，且持续增加， 受特朗普政府可能加征关税影响，预计 12 月单月进口量或超 10 万吨， 明年上半年将持续影响市场。 Q&A 请您回顾一下 2025 年铜价的表现，并分享对未来铜价走势的看法。 2025 年铜价表现出强预期、弱现实的特点。需求方面，海外市场表现较预期 更弱，尤其是一些传统消费大国和新兴国家，如日 ...

铜周报 铜行业周报 2025/12/19 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追 ...

Economic Indicators - The cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first eleven months of 2025 reached 33.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.99 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1][8] - The increase in RMB loans for the first eleven months was 15.36 trillion yuan [1][6] - As of the end of November, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 336.99 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8% [1][6] - The narrow money supply (M1) was 112.89 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1][6] - The cash in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.74 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [1][6] Policy Initiatives - A joint notice was issued by the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption [1][14] - The notice emphasizes support for key areas of consumption, including goods, services, and new consumption models, proposing 11 policy measures to stimulate demand [14][46] Real Estate Market - In November, the new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2% [1][16] - The decline in new residential prices in second and third-tier cities was 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, indicating a slight narrowing of the decline [16][48] International Developments - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%, marking the highest level since September 1995 [19][20] - In the U.S., the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than expected, leading to increased market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January [21][21]

近期，铜市场在年末的特殊氛围中呈现出复杂多变的态势，价格走势牵动着众多投资者的心弦。从隔夜 市场表现到各大机构的预测，再到全球铜供应格局的变化，诸多因素交织，共同影响着铜价的未来走 向。 近期市场表现：伦铜沪铜齐震荡 隔夜市场，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜震荡走弱，最新收盘报价11619美元/吨，收跌67美元，跌 幅0.57%，成交量19885手减少3296手，持仓量350621手减少435手。市场在关键的美国就业数据公布前 保持谨慎，且年末流动性趋于稀薄，使得价格波动有所放大。 周二晚间沪铜走势同样震荡，盘面走势显得疲弱，主力月2602合约最新收盘价报91830元/吨，跌620 元，跌幅0.67%。今日（12月17日）早盘，沪铜主力2602合约低开，延续夜盘跌势，开盘价报91940元/ 吨，跌510元。苏克顿金融公司分析师指出，由于年底流动性不足，金属市场在年底容易出现剧烈波 动，基础金属价格波动日益加剧。 价格驱动因素：供应与需求的双重博弈 供应端：中断与缺口并存 今年以来，铜价一路飙升，屡创新高，供应中断是重要推手之一。全球最大铜生产商智利国家铜业公司 （Codelco）产量徘徊于四分之一世纪低点 ...