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招商证券:白酒板块出清后底部显现 布局强势龙头+率先出清后增长标的
智通财经网· 2025-09-02 06:26
Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment due to the "ban on alcohol" policy, leading to a thorough clearance of second and third-tier companies, while leading enterprises show resilience and still need to address market burdens [1][2] Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q2 2025, the liquor industry reported revenues, net profits attributable to shareholders, and cash returns of 881 billion, 312 billion, and 1,052 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -5.0%, -7.5%, and -3.2% [3] - The first half of 2025 saw the liquor industry achieve revenues, net profits, and cash returns of 2,415 billion, 946 billion, and 2,582 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.9%, -1.2%, and +7.0% [3] - The Q2 2025 net profit growth rate is the lowest in 15 years, indicating a prolonged "enterprise suffering period" [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The impact of the "ban on alcohol" policy has pressured industry demand, leading to a deep adjustment phase, with expectations of continued acceleration in the clearance of company reports in Q3 2025 [3][4] - High-end liquor brands maintain strong performance despite policy impacts, while second-tier companies face significant profit declines, reflecting cautious attitudes from distributors [4][5] Group 3: Financial Health - The overall contract liabilities for the liquor sector in Q2 2025 were 370.5 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15.4% [5] - The willingness of distributors to make payments has noticeably declined, with some leading companies still able to motivate distributor engagement [5] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin of the liquor sector is under pressure due to declining prices and structural changes, with high-end liquor experiencing slight declines in gross margin [6][7] - Many companies have increased their expense ratios to cope with price declines and intensified competition, although some have managed to reduce costs through digitalization and refined channel management [6][7]
90亿资本护盘,一家酒企如何从“茅台酒”进化成“茅台资本”?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 06:18
文 | 文軒财经 三畏 据贵州茅台9月1日公告,茅台集团通过集中竞价交易方式,当天增持公司股份67,821股,增持金额约1亿元,占总股本 的0.0054%。 增持并非孤立行为,而是茅台近期系列资本运作中的关键一环。就在同一周,贵州茅台刚宣布已完成历时8个月、总额 60亿元的回购计划,累计回购392.76万股。 茅台虽好,资本更牛。 8月27日午后,"科技新贵"寒武纪股价持续走强,一度拉涨近10%。13时38分,其股价最高触及1464.98元,首次超越贵 州茅台的1460.93元,短暂撼动了茅台长期稳坐的"股王"宝座。 这一历史性的超越,无疑给贵州茅台敲响警钟。 面对挑战,背靠贵州国资的茅台迅速展现出其资本实力与战略决心。9月1日,控股股东茅台集团通过集中竞价交易方 式,果断增持67,821股公司股份,增持金额约1亿元,占总股本的0.0054%。 此次行动并非孤立之举,而是其8月29日公布的30-33亿元大规模增持计划的第一步。茅台集团以迅捷的节奏和"真金白 银"的投入,启动了这场资本行动,向市场传递出坚定看好公司,股票依然很值钱的强烈信号。 一日掷一亿,说干就干 茅台集团是资本市场为数不多的运作高手。 在8月 ...
白酒板块午盘微跌 贵州茅台上涨0.81%
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-09-02 06:15
从个股来看,贵州茅台收盘价达1488.07元/股,上涨0.81%;五粮液收盘价达128.85元/股,下跌0.02%; 山西汾酒收盘价达200.19元/股,下跌0.20%;泸州老窖收盘价达137.56元/股,上涨1.26%;洋河股份收 盘价达74.09元/股,上涨0.32%。 北京商报讯(记者 刘一博 冯若男)9月2日早盘,三大指数集体下跌,沪指3844.84点下跌0.79%。白酒 板块午盘2372.83点收盘下跌0.41%,其中12只白酒股下跌。 国金证券发布研报称,白酒板块半年报收官,与市场预期相符、白酒酒企25Q2普遍业绩加速出清,但 市场情绪仍边际向好。近期主流单品价盘普遍有所回落,这亦与预期相符,即动销拐点先于价盘拐点、 价盘拐点先于报表拐点,预计近期批价回落主要系渠道在中秋&国庆前有所抢跑出货。 ...
茅台2025中秋礼盒上市
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-09-02 06:15
北京商报讯(记者 刘一博 冯若男)9月2日,北京商报记者从茅台文旅公众号获悉,该公司将于今日推 出中秋团圆季白瓷茶具套组礼盒。据了解,该礼盒搭配2瓶200ml的53%vol贵州茅台酒,四件茶杯分别 对应丹桂、金桂、银桂、四季桂的四种桂花品类,与金蟾设计结合为"蟾宫折桂"意向。目前,茅台文旅 抖音·天猫·京东官方旗舰店已上架2025中秋礼盒,并于9月2日正式上线,标价9999元。 ...
研报掘金丨华安证券:维持泸州老窖“买入”评级,看好行业恢复期的公司业绩弹性
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-02 06:09
华安证券研报指出,泸州老窖上半年营收164.54亿(-2.67%),归母净利润76.63亿(-4.54%),Q2营收71.02亿(-7.97%),归母净利润30.70亿(-11.10%),符合市场预期。分品类 ...
伊力特跌2.02%,成交额1.25亿元,主力资金净流出339.42万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 06:03
分红方面,伊力特A股上市后累计派现28.42亿元。近三年,累计派现5.91亿元。 资料显示,新疆伊力特实业股份有限公司位于新疆可克达拉市天山北路619号,成立日期1999年5月27 日,上市日期1999年9月16日,公司主营业务涉及白酒生产和销售;农业综合开发等。主营业务收入构成 为:高档69.69%,中档23.05%,低档6.12%,其他(补充)1.14%。 伊力特所属申万行业为:食品饮料-白酒Ⅱ-白酒Ⅲ。所属概念板块包括:新疆振兴、一带一路、喀什规 划区、白酒、融资融券等。 资金流向方面,主力资金净流出339.42万元,特大单买入236.10万元,占比1.89%,卖出171.25万元,占 比1.37%;大单买入1677.49万元,占比13.42%,卖出2081.77万元,占比16.66%。 伊力特今年以来股价跌4.76%,近5个交易日跌2.74%,近20日涨8.62%,近60日涨11.50%。 9月2日,伊力特盘中下跌2.02%,截至13:22,报16.00元/股,成交1.25亿元,换手率1.62%,总市值75.71 亿元。 截至6月30日,伊力特股东户数5.94万,较上期减少2.39%;人均流通股796 ...
上市即爆款,“舍得自在”京东单平台首发36小时万单售罄,紧急补货仍供不应求
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-02 05:45
Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor has launched its first low-alcohol aged liquor "Shede Zizai," which has received significant market interest, indicating a successful innovation in the traditional liquor industry [1][2][3]. Product Launch and Market Response - "Shede Zizai" was officially launched on August 30, with pre-sales starting on JD.com, resulting in 20,000 people adding it to their carts within 24 hours and over 12,000 orders within 36 hours [1][3]. - The product features a 29-degree alcohol content, 500ml volume, and a retail price of 329 yuan per bottle, emphasizing a "light burden, more mellow" drinking experience [1][4]. Strategic Partnership - Shede Liquor has formed a strategic partnership with JD.com to enhance digital marketing and consumer experience, leveraging JD's extensive logistics network and user base of over 600 million [1][2]. - The collaboration aims to drive product innovation based on user demand and enhance the overall consumer experience through digital capabilities [2][5]. Product Quality and Innovation - "Shede Zizai" is characterized by its use of a solid base of 6-year aged liquor, complemented by 20-year and 30-year old liquor, showcasing a commitment to quality [4][6]. - The product is positioned to redefine the quality standards of low-alcohol liquor, with a focus on maintaining rich flavors while reducing the physical burden on consumers [4][6]. Market Trends and Consumer Insights - The launch aligns with the growing trend of low-alcohol and diversified consumption scenarios in the liquor market, catering to both traditional liquor consumers and those new to the category [5][6]. - The product is designed to meet various social settings, from casual gatherings to home consumption, promoting a "free drinking" experience [5][6].
茅台控股股东出手 30亿增持计划正式启动
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-09-02 05:28
来源:环球网 【环球网消费综合报道】贵州茅台9月2日发布增持公告,证实控股股东茅台集团已于当日通过集中竞价 交易方式,斥资约1亿元增持公司股份67821股,占公司总股本的0.0054%。这也标志着茅台集团拟在6 个月内斥资30亿至33亿元的增持计划已正式启动。 图片来源于贵州茅台公 告截图 出手增持,彰显坚定信心 此次增持源于8月30日的一则公告。当时,茅台集团宣布计划自9月1日至2026年2月28日,以自有资金和 自筹资金在二级市场增持公司股份,金额不低于30亿元且不高于33亿元。从公告发布到首次增持仅隔两 个交易日,茅台集团的迅速行动,向市场传递了其对茅台长期发展前景的高度认可和坚定信心。 公告中,茅台集团明确表示,此举是基于对上市公司未来发展前景的信心及长期价值的认可。在业内人 士看来,控股股东以"真金白银"入市,是对公司内在价值的直接背书,有助于在市场波动中有效提振投 资者信心,并提升上市公司的整体投资价值。 关键时期彰显担当 事实上,茅台集团的此次增持并非一时兴起,而是其长期以来在公司关键节点上展现担当的延续。记者 梳理发现,茅台集团对贵州茅台的增持行为虽不频繁,但每一次都发生在行业或公司面临重要挑 ...
泸州老窖(000568):主动释放压力,放眼长期
China Post Securities· 2025-09-02 05:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [8][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 164.54 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 76.63 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.67% and 4.54% respectively [3]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 87.09%, down by 1.48 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 46.57%, a decrease of 0.91 percentage points [3]. - The company is focusing on long-term competitiveness and expects a recovery in sales driven by improved consumer demand in the second half of the year [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 71.02 billion yuan, with a net profit of 30.7 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 7.97% and 11.1% respectively [4]. - The sales collection for the first half of 2025 was 179.50 billion yuan, down 10.97% year-on-year, with a net cash flow of 60.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.27% [3]. - The company’s contract liabilities increased by 11.88 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating strong channel performance and proactive cash collection strategies [3]. Product and Market Strategy - The company plans to enhance its market penetration in lower-tier cities and strengthen its digital marketing efforts to improve cost-effectiveness [5]. - It aims to innovate and adapt to changing consumer preferences by developing new products, including a new low-alcohol beverage [5]. - The company is shifting resources towards mainstream mid-to-high-end products and plans to launch a new product line to solidify its market position [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 299.51 billion yuan, 312.54 billion yuan, and 338.63 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with expected growth rates of -3.99%, 4.35%, and 8.35% [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 124.05 billion yuan in 2025, with an EPS of 8.43 yuan, reflecting a PE ratio of 16 times [8][10].
9月券商金股出炉,投资逻辑一览
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 05:03
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the selection of 240 stocks as "golden stocks" by brokerages, with a focus on those recommended by multiple firms, indicating strong investment interest in these companies [1] Group 1: Company Summaries - **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH)**: A leading global producer of copper and cobalt, benefiting from rising prices and increased production, with a net profit growth of 55.49% in H1 2025 [2] - **Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ)**: A top player in pig farming with a significant cost advantage, experiencing a 952.92% increase in net profit in H1 2025 due to rising pig prices [3][4] - **AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760.SH)**: A core manufacturer of fighter jets, facing a decline in revenue and profit in H1 2025 but with strong future order potential [5] - **ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ)**: The fourth-largest global telecom equipment provider, seeing a 54.39% stock price increase driven by AI demand, despite a decline in net profit [6] - **Kingsoft Office (688111.SH)**: A leading office software provider with a strong user base, experiencing growth in subscription revenue but facing high valuation concerns [9] - **NewEase (300502.SZ)**: Specializes in optical modules with a significant market share, achieving a remarkable 340.13% stock price increase due to AI demand [10] - **Haiguang Information (688041.SH)**: Develops high-end processors, benefiting from AI demand and a strong order backlog, but facing high valuation risks [11] - **Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ)**: A leading producer of strong-flavor liquor, experiencing a 20.50% stock price increase despite a decline in revenue and profit [13] - **Shede Spirits (600702.SH)**: A liquor company with a diverse product range, seeing a 31.25% stock price increase amid expectations of consumption recovery [15] - **Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH)**: A semiconductor company benefiting from rising storage chip prices, with a 56.16% stock price increase and a forecasted profit growth of 41.52% [17] Group 2: Market Trends and Investment Logic - The overall market sentiment is positive for the selected stocks, driven by sector-specific demand and price increases, particularly in commodities and technology [1][2][3][4][5][6][10][11][13][15][17] - The companies are positioned well within their respective industries, with strong competitive advantages and growth potential, although some face high valuations and market risks [9][10][11][13][15][17]