6月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，5月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降 0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。 5月份"CPI-PPI"同比剪刀差扩大，反映出工业部门需求不济的情况有所加剧，但企业数据也反映部分行业供需关系有所改善，结构性特征更加明显，如宾馆住宿价 格环比涨幅创近十年同期新高、光伏、锂电等新能源行业供需关系有所改善。 市场机构分析认为，5月CPI环比由涨转降，持平于历史同期平均水平，而从PPI来看，输入性价格下行压力依然偏大。 能源价格影响拖累CPI表现 自3月以来，CPI连续三个月同比降幅为0.1%，环比看，5月CPI由涨转降。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟介绍，能源价格是拖累CPI同比和环比表现的主要因素。从同比看，5月份能源价格同比下降6.1%，降幅比上月扩大1.3个百分 点，影响CPI同比下降约0.47个百分点。从环比看，能源价格下降1.7%，影响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点，占CPI总降幅近七成。 而对CPI形成支撑的因素则是提振消费相关政策持续显效。同比看，扣除能源的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in global asset allocation, with a notable inflow into European equities and bonds, while Chinese equities are experiencing outflows, indicating a "seesaw" effect in the market dynamics [1][3][41]. Market Review - The successful outcome of the China-US-Switzerland talks on May 12 has significantly boosted global risk appetite, leading to an increase in global stock indices [10][41]. - The 20-year US Treasury auction on May 22 was poorly received, with the final yield surpassing 5%, raising concerns about US fiscal pressure [1][10]. Global Asset Performance - In May, equity assets generally rose, while US Treasury yields increased and the dollar weakened. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 24 basis points [2][13]. - Gold prices increased by 2.1%, and Brent crude oil rose by 1.7% during the same period [2][13]. Global Fund Flows - In May, there was a significant inflow of $215 billion into global money market funds, with developed market equities receiving $305 billion, while emerging market equities saw an outflow of $83 billion [3][20]. - Developed European fixed income and equity funds attracted inflows of $190 billion and $247 billion, respectively, indicating stronger performance compared to the US [3][20]. China Market Dynamics - By the end of May, global equity funds experienced an outflow of $88.5 billion from China, a reversal from the inflow of $198.3 billion in April [4][41]. - The outflow was primarily driven by passive ETFs, which saw a withdrawal of $82.5 billion in May compared to an inflow of $203.9 billion in April [4][41]. - In terms of sector performance, there was a significant inflow into technology, real estate, and materials, while telecommunications, consumer staples, and healthcare saw outflows [4][41]. Country Allocation - Global market funds reduced their allocation to US equities by 1.0 percentage points in April, while increasing allocations to European equities [5][41]. - The allocation to China remains stable at 26.4%, indicating potential for further growth [5][41]. Emerging Markets - Emerging market funds saw a decrease in allocation to Chinese equities, with a drop of 1.6 percentage points compared to March, while the allocation to Indian equities also decreased [5][41]. - In May, emerging market equity funds experienced a net outflow of $45 billion, with China being the primary contributor to this outflow [43][46].

Core Viewpoint - Sun Guangxin, the richest man in Xinjiang, has seen his wealth shrink significantly from 470 billion yuan in 2019 to 290 billion yuan in 2025, facing numerous challenges in his business empire, Guanghui Group [4][7][24]. Group 1: Wealth Status - Sun Guangxin ranks as the richest man in Xinjiang with a wealth of 290 billion yuan, placing him 918th globally according to the 2025 Hurun Global Rich List [4][8]. - His wealth has decreased by 90 billion yuan over the past two years, dropping from 380 billion yuan in 2023 to 290 billion yuan in 2025, and 180 billion yuan from his peak in 2019 [8][9]. - The competition in Xinjiang has intensified, with the Mi Enhua family of Hualing Industrial Group now matching Sun's wealth [4][8]. Group 2: Business Empire - Guanghui Group, founded by Sun Guangxin, has diversified into various sectors including energy, logistics, real estate, and automotive services [9][16]. - Guanghui Group has been recognized as one of the top 500 companies in China for over 20 years and has been included in the Global 500 for seven consecutive years from 2017 to 2023, with total assets of 2,471.93 billion yuan and revenue of 2,146.03 billion yuan in 2023 [17][24]. - The group holds significant stakes in several listed companies, including Guanghui Energy, ST Guangwu, Guanghui Baoxin, and Hejin Investment, which collectively form a substantial capital matrix [10][9]. Group 3: Challenges Faced - Guanghui Energy, a core asset of Guanghui Group, reported a revenue drop of 40.72% to 364.41 billion yuan and a net profit decline of 42.6% to 29.61 billion yuan in 2024 [19][20]. - ST Guangwu has also faced declining performance, with a revenue decrease of 24.23% and a net profit drop of 12.76% in the previous year [20][21]. - Guanghui Baoxin's market value is only 2.44 billion Hong Kong dollars, and it has reported significant revenue and profit declines, with a net loss in the latest financial period [21][24]. Group 4: Personal Background and Business Journey - Sun Guangxin started his career with a mere 3,000 yuan after leaving the military and quickly made a name for himself in the machinery sales business [13][14]. - He successfully expanded into various sectors, including the restaurant industry and oil trade, achieving significant sales milestones early in his career [15][16]. - Over the years, he has built Guanghui Group into a major player in multiple industries, demonstrating a keen business acumen and adaptability to market changes [16][24].

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - UBS expects global economic growth to gradually slow down in the second half of 2025, with healthy balance sheets and low default rates supporting spread stability [1] - The anticipated spread for EU investment-grade/high-yield bonds by December 2025 is projected at 100/325 basis points, despite potential market volatility from tariff news [1][2] - UBS's proprietary economic risk indicator has improved, challenging initial recession scenarios, although growth momentum is expected to fade later in the year [2] Group 2: ECB and Monetary Policy - UBS forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB in June to 2.0%, aligning with market expectations, with another potential cut in July to 1.75% [3] - The ECB is expected to prioritize growth support while navigating inflation uncertainties, particularly in light of potential retaliatory tariffs from the EU [3] Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a slowdown in May, but manufacturing activity remains positive, with private sector credit growth recovering [4] - Low default rates (approximately 1.5%) and strong fundamentals are supporting the resilience of credit spreads, despite ongoing trade uncertainties [4] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Investment-grade financial bonds are seen as an ideal choice compared to corporate bonds, with energy and basic industries being the most sensitive to tariff news [1][7] - The capital goods and utilities sectors are viewed as defensive, while the technology sector is experiencing increased volatility due to specific risks [7] Group 5: Trade News Impact - Following the announcement of tariffs, credit spreads initially widened but did so in an orderly manner without panic selling [6] - UBS anticipates increased volatility around tariff news in the summer, particularly after the 90-day pause period ends [6] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - In the context of rising market volatility due to tariff news, opportunities in sensitive sectors are increasingly driven by individual stock performance rather than macro factors [8] - Companies with strong balance sheets and low breakeven points in the energy sector are better positioned, while those with high leverage face greater risks [8] Group 7: Credit Market Trends - The orderly widening of spreads around the "Liberation Day" reflects investor preparedness, with a significant amount of cash buffer available to manage tariff announcements [9] - UBS predicts a rotation of funds from U.S. to EU markets, with credit valuations remaining well-supported [9] Group 8: Financial Sector Performance - The financial sector has outperformed, supported by strong earnings from core European banks, despite some weakness in interest income and non-performing loans [10][11] - UBS maintains a constructive but cautious outlook on the financial sector, anticipating moderate issuance in the investment-grade primary market [11] Group 9: Technical Market Conditions - Investment-grade corporate bond issuance reached a historical high of 56% in May, driven by positive tariff news and strong investor demand [13] - UBS expects a healthy supply dynamic for financial bonds, particularly in AT1 and T2 bonds, supporting the market's technical backdrop [13] Group 10: Private Credit Market Outlook - UBS notes unique supportive factors in the European private credit market, including stronger EBITDA growth compared to the U.S. and improving interest coverage ratios [14] - The European private credit market is expected to remain resilient, with ample dry powder available to support liquidity and mitigate hard defaults [14]

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent research conducted by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is on enhancing product and service value, resource integration, and promoting high-end industrial development [1][2] - "Focusing on core responsibilities and main businesses" is a recurring theme, emphasizing the need for companies to concentrate resources and efforts on their primary sectors to achieve sustainable and high-value growth [2][3] - The term "integration" has been frequently mentioned, indicating a strategic move to consolidate resources towards main businesses and emerging industries, enhancing core competitiveness [3][4] Group 2 - Key core technologies, including automotive-grade chips and machine tool technologies, are highlighted as critical areas of focus for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to strengthen their competitive edge [4][5] - Companies are encouraged to foster collaboration with research institutions and industry partners to accelerate technological advancements and optimize product structures [4] - The emphasis on high-end, intelligent, and green development is aimed at transforming traditional industries and enhancing overall efficiency [4][5]

大 类 资 产 配 置 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 02 日 "特朗普服软"交易兴起 - 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 涂锦文 A0230123070009 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250523-20250530) 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 ⚫ 全球资产价格回顾：本周（20250523–20250530）。本周美国政坛持续震动。5 月 28 日，马斯克宣布 离开特朗普政府，政府效率部的"马斯克"改革暂时告一段落。此外，特朗普 23 日表示 ...

Core Insights - ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) has become a key indicator for measuring corporate sustainability in the current global economic landscape, with global sustainable investment exceeding $35 trillion in 2022 and continuing to grow [1][14][21] - The ESG investment trend has seen explosive growth, with net inflows into global ESG funds exceeding $1.5 trillion from 2020 to 2023, transitioning from a responsible investment concept to a mainstream investment strategy [1][21] Policy Trends - Major economies and international organizations are actively promoting ESG reporting policies, such as the European Union's implementation of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) in 2023, affecting over 50,000 companies [2][25] - The U.S. SEC has strengthened regulations on climate-related disclosures since 2022, requiring companies to report on climate change risk assessments and greenhouse gas emissions [2][26] - China's ESG regulatory policies have been continuously improving since 2021, with increasing disclosure requirements for listed companies, including mandatory disclosures for indices like the Shanghai 180 and STAR 50 [2][27] - International organizations have introduced standards like the GRI 2021 version, effective in 2023, which covers 78% of leading global companies and emphasizes substantive reporting and stakeholder engagement [2][28] ESG Reporting Framework - ESG reporting frameworks include GRI standards, SASB standards, and various stock exchange standards, focusing on environmental data, social performance, and corporate governance disclosures [3][36][37] - Environmental disclosures require reporting on greenhouse gas emissions, resource efficiency, and environmental risk management [3][40][42] - Social performance disclosures cover employee rights, community engagement, and supply chain social responsibility [3][43] - Governance disclosures include board diversity, investor rights protection, and anti-corruption measures [3][45][46] Challenges and Strategies - Companies face challenges in implementing ESG reporting and verification, including internal coordination and resource allocation, as well as uncertainties in ESG metrics and performance measurement [3][4] - Strategies for companies include establishing a robust ESG management system, enhancing the quality of ESG disclosures, and actively engaging in ESG verification collaborations [4][5] - The trend towards stricter compliance and verification of ESG reports is increasing, urging companies to embrace ESG transformations for sustainable development [4][5]

4月24日到25日，国际能源署将召开"能源安全峰会"，这次峰会的举办地在伦敦，举办方是英国政府。据报道，峰会的主题将围绕"气候转型、能源安全和地 缘政治风险"展开，英国政府和国际能源署已经向75个国家发出邀请。 距离峰会开始还有一周的时间，但峰会背后的风波已经开始涌动。根据英国《卫报》4月16日的披露，峰会没有邀请俄罗斯，美国总统特朗普则高调宣布会 派重要人物前去参会。最劲爆的消息是关于中国的态度，《卫报》的原话是：由于日程冲突，中方高级能源官员将不会出席本次峰会。 如果用非外交话术来说就是：中国没空来参加。如果用大白话来理解就是：我们不想去。 国际能源安全峰会是国际能源署（简称IEA，亦称"国际能源机构"）举办的峰会，其宗旨是评估全球能源体系面临的风险，并商讨解决方案。这里就不得不 先说一下"国际能源署"。 国际能源署成立于1974年，总部在法国巴黎。它目前有31个成员国，主要包括欧洲大多数国家，还有日本、韩国、美国、加拿大等国。这里面并没有欧洲长 期依赖的能源大国俄罗斯，也没有石油出口大国的沙特、阿联酋、伊朗等国，更没有中国。 说白了，国际能源署是以欧美为主导，维护欧美自身利益，受地缘政治和意识形态的影响 ...

Core Viewpoint - Expand Energy (EXE) shares have increased by approximately 11.1% since the last earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500, but recent estimates have trended downward, indicating potential challenges ahead [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - The last earnings report for Expand Energy was about a month ago, and the stock has shown positive performance since then [1]. - The consensus estimate for the company has decreased by 9.3% over the past month, reflecting a negative shift in expectations [2]. Group 2: VGM Scores - Expand Energy currently holds a strong Growth Score of A, but has a lower Momentum Score of D, indicating mixed performance across different investment strategies [3]. - The stock has a value grade of C, placing it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy, leading to an overall aggregate VGM Score of B [3]. Group 3: Outlook - The overall trend for estimates has been downward, suggesting a potential decline in performance expectations for Expand Energy [4]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of an in-line return in the coming months [4].

Core Viewpoint - Guangju Energy experienced a significant drop in stock price, reaching the daily limit down, with a trading volume of 6.38 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 8.26% [2] Trading Activity - The stock was listed on the Dragon and Tiger list due to a daily price deviation of -11.40%, with institutional net buying of 22.93 million yuan and a net selling of 44.17 million yuan from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [2] - The top five trading departments accounted for a total transaction of 229 million yuan, with buying transactions amounting to 65.54 million yuan and selling transactions totaling 163 million yuan, resulting in a net selling of 97.72 million yuan [2] - Among the trading departments, two institutional special seats were present, with a total buying amount of 30.73 million yuan and selling amount of 7.79 million yuan, leading to a net buying of 22.93 million yuan [2] Fund Flow - The stock saw a net outflow of 216 million yuan in principal funds today, with a significant outflow of 132 million yuan from large orders and 84.22 million yuan from big orders [3] - Over the past five days, the stock has experienced a total net outflow of 271 million yuan [3] - In the trading data from May 29, the top buying and selling departments included institutional special seats and the Shenzhen Stock Connect, with notable transactions recorded [3]