同时呢在长端掉期进行了回笼美元，以应对结汇的压力，所以啊也就间接影响到我们大a跳水了。而这 一个动作其实啊也只是起到了放缓人民币的涨势，而不是从根本上改变它原有的趋势，所以反映到我们 盘面上也就是突然跳下水，然后慢慢的再收起来了。至于之后的行情啊我依旧比较看好，不会因为今天 盘中的那么一跳而改变自己的观点。板块方面短期还是看商业航天和人形机器人，中期依旧看好AI、 算力、半导体、有色等方向。 今天中午发生了什么事，大盘突然跳水了，而午后又逐步收了上去。另外之后的行情大家又怎么看呢？ 和讯投顾卢明昊分析，今天早盘市场依旧延续着最近小幅攀升的节奏，就在以为还是老剧本重演的时 候，突然之间大盘直线跳水，由于跳水来的太快，可能有些朋友啊还没有反应过来，等到中午吃饭的时 候啊才看到，那到底是发生了什么事呢？原来啊是因为最近人民币升值过快短短一个月时间里，离岸人 民币对美元将近升值了1.5%左右，从而可能触发了机构交易市场重新购买美元的条件。 ...

Market Overview - On December 26, A-shares opened slightly lower and fluctuated upwards, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.15%. The half-day trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.47 trillion yuan, with over 3,900 stocks declining [1] Precious Metals - International precious metals strengthened across the board, with gold surpassing $4,500 per ounce and silver reaching a new high. Platinum increased by over 8% [2][7] - Specific price movements include: - London Gold at $4,512.29, up 0.73% year-to-date increase of 71.96% [8] - London Silver at $74.813, up 4.18% year-to-date increase of 159.02% [8] - Spot Platinum at $2,409.80, up 8.16% year-to-date increase of 166.54% [8] Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry chain experienced a strong rally, with Tianji Co. (002759) achieving four consecutive trading limits in eight days. Other stocks like Hongyuan Pharmaceutical (301246) and Yongxing Materials (002756) also hit trading limits [3] - Lithium mining concepts rose, with companies such as Zhongmin Resources (002738), Guocheng Mining (000688), and Tianqi Lithium (002466) seeing stock price increases [4] - On December 26, lithium carbonate futures surged past 130,000 yuan per ton, marking a new high since November 2023. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of regulating and innovating in the "new three" industries, including new energy vehicles and lithium batteries [5] Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector showed active but diverging trends, with Shenjian Co. (002361) achieving seven consecutive trading limits and Jiuding New Materials (002201) four consecutive trading limits [5] AI Industry - The AI industry chain experienced a collective pullback, with significant declines in computing hardware concepts. Changguang Huaxin fell over 10%, and other tech-related sectors like robotics and lithography machines also faced corrections [5] Company-Specific News - The stock of Beilichong, known as the "first stock of smart massage equipment," plummeted over 13% amid news that the company and its actual controller were under investigation [6] - The Guotou UBS Silver Futures (LOF) announced a restriction on regular investment amounts starting December 29, limiting A-class fund shares to 100 yuan [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is transitioning from a liquidity-driven valuation expansion to a profit recovery cycle, with structural changes in consumption, precise policy support, and broad profit recovery as the three pillars for understanding the market dynamics leading to 2026 [1]. Group 1: Consumption Dynamics - Investment and exports are expected to stabilize or face mild pressure by 2026, while internal structural changes in consumption will be key to economic resilience [4]. - Consumption is entering a slow upward trajectory, with policy support shifting from goods to services. The marginal impact of traditional consumption stimulus policies, such as trade-in subsidies, is diminishing [5]. - Consumption growth is projected to maintain a rate of around 4% in 2026, reflecting a significant transformation in growth dynamics, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" focus on developing a strong domestic market and fostering new consumption types [5][6]. Group 2: Profit Recovery - Broad profit recovery among enterprises is expected to provide a solid foundation for the market, with nominal GDP significantly rising due to price improvements and sustained profit recovery [7]. - The overall profit growth for the A-share market is forecasted to increase from 8.2% in 2025 to 10.3% in 2026, with the ChiNext and STAR Market expected to see profit growth rates of 31.7% and 34.3%, respectively [7][8]. - The improvement in profit growth is attributed to a new industrial cycle driven by AI and internal profit recovery among companies [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The core investment strategy for A-shares in 2026 will focus on the new growth cycle in technology industries and the price increase chain driven by supply-demand logic [9]. - The AI industry chain is identified as a strong technology focus, with significant potential in the computing power sector, while auxiliary equipment demand is expected to rise alongside infrastructure development [9]. - The storage industry is facing structural supply-demand contradictions, with AI-driven demand expected to sustain long-term growth, alongside opportunities in sectors benefiting from high overseas growth and national defense industries [10].

Economic Growth Outlook - China's economy is expected to maintain a recovery growth pattern, with GDP growth projected at around 5% for 2025 and 2026, supported by policy measures and internal demand expansion [1][2] - The nominal GDP growth is anticipated to improve significantly from 4% in 2025 to 5% in 2026 due to rising inflation and a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [1][2] Inflation and Consumer Prices - The improvement in nominal GDP growth is driven by inflation recovery, with PPI expected to decline at a much slower rate of approximately -0.6% in 2026 compared to -2.6% in 2025, while Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth is projected to turn positive at around 0.4% [2] Trade and External Demand - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. is expected to support export growth, with a forecasted export growth rate of about 5% in 2026, while imports may rise to around 3% due to recovering domestic demand [2] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending is projected to improve in 2026, with retail sales growth estimated at 4.4%, aided by policies such as child-rearing subsidies and free preschool education [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to recover slightly in 2026, with overall growth projected at around 2%, despite ongoing declines in real estate investment [3][4] Industry Transition - A shift from traditional industries to emerging sectors is becoming more pronounced, with the real estate sector undergoing significant adjustments and transitioning towards a focus on housing attributes [4] Economic Rebalancing - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand is crucial for long-term economic stability, with policies aimed at increasing consumer spending and enhancing income distribution expected to be prioritized [6][8] Policy Measures - The macroeconomic policy framework will focus on balancing short-term and long-term strategies, with continued support for fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic recovery [7][8]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgency to invest now [1][13] - The energy demands of AI technologies are highlighted, with data centers consuming as much energy as small cities, leading to concerns about power grid strain and rising electricity prices [2][3] Investment Opportunity - A specific company is presented as a critical player in the AI energy sector, owning essential energy infrastructure assets that are poised to benefit from the increasing energy demands of AI [3][7] - This company is described as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, collecting fees from energy exports and positioned to capitalize on the onshoring trend driven by tariffs [5][6] Financial Position - The company is noted for being debt-free and holding a significant cash reserve, amounting to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, which positions it favorably compared to other energy firms burdened by debt [8][10] - It also has a substantial equity stake in another AI-related company, providing investors with indirect exposure to multiple growth opportunities without the associated premium costs [9][10] Market Trends - The article discusses the broader trends of AI, energy, tariffs, and onshoring, indicating that this company is strategically aligned with these developments [6][14] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive continuous innovation and advancements, reinforcing the potential for growth in AI investments [12] Future Outlook - The company is positioned at the heart of America's next-generation power strategy, particularly in nuclear energy, which is seen as a key component of clean and reliable power for the future [7][14] - The potential for significant returns is emphasized, with projections suggesting a possible 100% return within 12 to 24 months for investors who act promptly [15][19]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgent need for energy to support its growth [1][2][3] Group 1: AI and Energy Demand - AI technologies, particularly large language models like ChatGPT, are extremely energy-intensive, with data centers consuming as much energy as small cities [2] - The increasing demand for AI is straining global power grids, leading to rising electricity prices and a need for utilities to expand capacity [2] - Industry leaders, including Sam Altman and Elon Musk, have highlighted the critical link between AI development and energy availability, warning of potential shortages [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunity - A specific company is positioned as a key player in the AI energy sector, owning critical energy infrastructure assets that will benefit from the anticipated surge in energy demand from AI data centers [3][7] - This company is not a chipmaker or cloud platform but is described as a "toll booth" operator in the energy market, profiting from the increasing need for electricity [5][6] - The company is debt-free and has significant cash reserves, equating to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, making it an attractive investment option [8] Group 3: Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is involved in large-scale engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects across various energy sectors, including nuclear energy, which is crucial for America's future power strategy [7] - It has a substantial equity stake in another AI-related company, providing investors with indirect exposure to multiple growth opportunities without high premiums [9] - The stock is currently undervalued, trading at less than seven times earnings, which presents a compelling investment case given its ties to the booming AI and energy sectors [10] Group 4: Future Trends - The ongoing trends of AI infrastructure development, onshoring due to tariffs, and a surge in U.S. LNG exports are expected to create significant growth opportunities for the company [14] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is anticipated to drive rapid advancements and innovation, further solidifying the importance of investing in AI-related companies [12]

2025年，A股市场走出近年来少见的低波动慢牛，上证指数也时隔10年一度回到4000点上方。而在2024 年末，光大证券策略首席分析师张宇生在接受《每日经济新闻》记者专访时就曾旗帜鲜明地表示继续看 好2025年的市场。 那么，2026年A股大势是否有望迎来"三连阳"？"9·24"行情以来，在"科技牛"主导行情的背景下，未来 市场风格是否将发生一定切换？2026年市场又有哪些核心主线值得关注？在"十五五"规划开局之年，政 策将有哪些值得期待的发力点？带着这些投资者关注的问题，近日《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称 NBD）再度对张宇生进行了独家专访。 张宇生：站在当前时点，我对2026年A股市场依然保持积极乐观，核心判断是"慢牛格局延续，结构机 会凸显"。前期市场上涨源于政策支持与资金面改善的共振，而2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，各 项支撑条件将更加扎实。宏观层面有政策红利持续释放，产业层面有新质生产力加速培育，资金层面有 居民资产配置向权益市场迁移的长期趋势，这些因素将共同托举市场。虽然过程中可能会有阶段性波 动，但整体向上的趋势值得期待。 NBD：如果2026年A股市场仍然有机会，您觉得市场上涨的动力来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transition from liquidity-driven valuation expansion to a profit recovery cycle is expected to reshape the narrative of China's economic growth and capital markets in 2026, supported by structural changes in consumption, precise policy support, and widespread profit recovery [1] Consumption Growth - Investment and exports are anticipated to stabilize or face mild pressure in 2026, while internal structural changes in consumption will be crucial for economic resilience [2] - Consumption is entering a slow upward trajectory, with policy support shifting focus from goods to services [2] - The expected consumption growth rate for 2026 is around 4%, slightly slowing from 2025, but with a significant transformation in growth dynamics [2] - The recovery in consumption reflects a structural shift from goods to services, with sectors like health, education, cultural tourism, and information services receiving more systematic support, making the consumption growth base more diverse and sustainable [2] Profit Recovery - Broad profit recovery among enterprises will provide a solid foundation for the market, with price improvements being one of the few bright spots driving nominal GDP significantly upward [3] - The overall profit growth rate for the entire A-share market is projected to increase from 8.2% in 2025 to 10.3% in 2026, indicating a notable increase in growth momentum [3] - The ChiNext and STAR Market are expected to see profit growth rates of 31.7% and 34.3%, respectively, with the former having a larger profit scale [3] - The marginal improvement in profit growth is attributed to a new industrial prosperity cycle led by AI and endogenous profit recovery among companies [3] Market Valuation - The current valuation landscape shows that major indices and most styles are nearing historical peak valuation levels, while the ChiNext and consumer styles still have room for growth [4] Investment Themes - The core investment strategy for A-shares in 2026 focuses on two main themes: the new growth cycle in technology industries and the price increase chain based on supply-demand logic [5] - The AI industry chain is identified as the strongest technology theme, with profitability growth concentrated in the computing power segment, particularly in domestic computing power chains [6] - The storage industry is facing structural supply-demand contradictions, with AI driving long-term demand growth, while the energy storage chain benefits from increased computing power consumption [6] - Export-oriented sectors, such as engineering machinery and defense industries, are also significant components of the price increase logic [6]

作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 行至年末，全球贸易交出了怎样的答卷？ 2025.12. 25 本文字数：2488，阅读时长大约4分钟 12月以来，多个国际组织与国际金融机构在最新发布的报告中总结了今年全球贸易与经济的发展状况，并 就2026年的发展趋势作出了研判。 联合国贸发会议（UNCTAD）在年终题为《贸易、金融与全球经济重塑》的报告中提到，尽管受到地缘政 治紧张局势、贸易成本上升、全球需求不平衡等因素影响，今年全球贸易仍有望首次突破35万亿美元，与 去年相比增幅约为2.2万亿美元，增速约为7%。其中，货物贸易与服务贸易分别预计增长约1.5万亿美元和 7500亿美元，较2024年增幅分别为6.3%和8.8%。 同时，世界银行（WB）、国际货币基金组织（IMF）等在年末报告的展望中均表示，当前全球经济正处于 关键转折点，贸易与金融体系失衡、政策波动及气候危机等多重因素相互交织，给全球发展带来严峻挑 战，需要各国加强政策协调与合作，共同应对全球性挑战，推动经济朝着更加稳定、可持续的方向发展。 人工智能引领全球贸易 美国特朗普政府的关税政策无疑是今年贸易领域的焦点之一。上述报告均认为，正是由于美国政府关税政 策的反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is a pioneer in the industrialization of AGI technology in China, with rapid deployment of AI solutions in daily life and healthcare sectors driven by its proprietary 600 billion parameter model, "Shanhai Model" [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company, founded in 2012, established the Atlas AI infrastructure in 2016 and launched the Shanhai Model in 2023 [2]. - The company's ownership structure includes Yun Si Shang Yi at 24.08%, Yun Chuang Interactive at 3.80%, and key shareholders Dr. Huang, Dr. Liang, and Dr. Kang holding 3.78%, 2.27%, and other shares respectively [2]. - As of mid-2025, the company has 454 employees, with 68.7% in research and development [2]. Group 2: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.68 billion, 19.43 billion, and 26.59 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 35%, 53%, and 37% respectively [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -2.45 billion, -1.35 billion, and -1.04 billion RMB for the same years, with growth rates of 46%, 45%, and 23% respectively [1]. Group 3: Business Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 9.39 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 29.1% [3]. - Revenue from daily life services and healthcare grew by 27.8% and 34.4% in 2024, and 20.2% and 22.28% in the first half of 2025 respectively [3]. - The company sold 36 million AI chips to developers and customers in 2024, supporting its AI solutions in various sectors [3]. Group 4: Market Growth - The AI solutions market in China is projected to reach 180.4 billion RMB in 2024, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.7%, expected to grow to 1,174.9 billion RMB by 2030 [4]. - The company ranks fourth in the Chinese AI solutions market and third in the daily life AI solutions market, while also ranking fourth in the healthcare AI market [4].