Core Insights - China's cross-border travel revenue increased by 42% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - The service trade revenue grew by 13% year-on-year, with cross-border travel being a significant contributor [1] - The service trade deficit decreased by 14% year-on-year, indicating a narrowing gap between service trade income and expenditure [1] Economic Performance - The foreign exchange market in China showed strong resilience and vitality, performing better than market expectations [1] - The current account has been stable, with an increase in the international competitiveness of productive service trades such as computer information services and business services [1] - The overall balance of international payments is expected to remain stable due to ongoing economic structural optimization and financial market opening [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, highlighting recent exchange rate movements and the factors influencing these changes [1][3][6]. Exchange Rate Movements - On August 1, the central parity rate of the yuan against the US dollar was reported at 7.1496, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous day [1]. - Both onshore and offshore yuan depreciated against the dollar, with the onshore rate at 7.2034 and the offshore rate at 7.2136, reflecting daily declines of 0.06% and 0.05% respectively [3][7]. - The yuan's exchange rate reached a two-month low, with a continuous decline over five days leading to a 0.38% drop in July [7]. Factors Influencing Exchange Rate - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) officials indicated that the yuan's exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors, including economic growth, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks [9][10]. - The PBOC emphasized that it does not seek to devalue the yuan for competitive advantages and aims to maintain a stable exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level [10][11]. Market Outlook - Analysts expect the yuan to stabilize at a reasonable equilibrium level in the second half of the year, supported by improving domestic economic conditions and anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve [10][12]. - The article notes that foreign capital inflows into Chinese assets are expected to continue, providing support for the yuan's stability [11][12]. Industry Impacts - The article outlines the potential impacts of yuan fluctuations on various industries, indicating that a stronger yuan could benefit import-dependent sectors while posing challenges for traditional export-oriented industries [14]. - Specific sectors such as textiles, aviation, and high-tech equipment may see advantages from a stronger yuan, while traditional foreign trade sectors may face difficulties [14].

Core Insights - The outlook for the Asia-Pacific foreign exchange market in the second half of 2025 is heavily influenced by potential trade agreements with the United States, which will determine the relative performance of Asian currencies, although the impact is expected to be temporary [2][5] - A long-term structural downtrend for the US dollar against Asian currencies is anticipated to persist, as doubts about the dollar's status may continue [2] Currency Performance Summary - The assessment of Asian currencies has been revised upward for Q2 2025 due to an earlier-than-expected decline in the US dollar, which is seen as a lasting trend [5] - Despite potential trade agreements, Asian economies are expected to face pressures, particularly in exports, which may be impacted by a rapid decline in the dollar's exchange rate against Asian currencies [5] - Central banks in Asia may need to intervene to slow the appreciation of their currencies, which could lead to tensions with the US government [5] Currency Scores - The currency scores for Q2 and Q3 2025 indicate varying expectations for different currencies against the US dollar: - CNY: -3 (Q2) to +1 (Q3) - HKD: 0 (Q2) to -1 (Q3) - KRW: -3 (Q2) to +2 (Q3) - TWD: -3 (Q2) to +3 (Q3) - SGD: -1 (Q2) to +3 (Q3) - MYR: -1 (Q2) to +1 (Q3) - THB: -2 (Q2) to +1 (Q3) - PHP: -1 (Q2) to +2 (Q3) - INR: -2 (Q2) to +2 (Q3) - IDR: -2 (Q2) to +2 (Q3) - VND: -3 (Q2) to +2 (Q3) [6] Trade Agreement Implications - A potential trade agreement between the US and China may not fully eliminate tariffs, which could continue to pressure the Chinese yuan [9] - The timing of any trade agreement will significantly influence the upward movement of Asian currencies, with China's situation likely benefiting Northeast Asian currencies more [9] Geopolitical Context - President Trump's threats regarding tariffs on countries aligning with BRICS nations reflect concerns over the dollar's status, potentially leading to further depreciation of the dollar [7] - The perception of threats to the dollar may prompt policy adjustments from the Trump administration, despite calls for a weaker dollar [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the content. The report mainly provides data on the performance of various global asset markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: - On July 30, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.372%, 4.603%, 3.358% respectively. Latest changes ranged from -0.029 to 0.073, weekly changes from -0.051 to 0.066, monthly changes from -0.057 to 0.157, and annual changes from -0.575 to 0.443 [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: - On July 30, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.910%, 3.873%, 1.951% respectively. Latest changes ranged from -0.017 to 0.020, weekly changes from -0.008 to 0.175, monthly changes from -0.054 to 0.127, and annual changes from -1.081 to 0.486 [3]. - **USD Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies**: - On July 30, 2025, rates against the Brazilian real, South African rand, etc. were 5.571, 17.998, etc. Latest changes ranged from -0.06% to 0.61%, weekly changes from 0.13% to 2.68%, monthly changes from 0.11% to 2.70%, and annual changes from -9.45% to 0.14% [3]. - **Stock Indices of Major Economies**: - On July 30, 2025, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc. had values of 6362.900, 44461.280, etc. Latest changes ranged from -1.22% to 2.22%, weekly changes from -1.63% to 4.13%, monthly changes from 3.15% to 31.81%, and annual changes showed various trends [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: - A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 had closing prices of 3615.72, 4151.24, 2819.35, 2367.68, and 6314.69 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.17%, -0.02%, 0.38%, -1.62%, and -0.65% [5]. - **Valuation**: - PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.35, 11.40, and 30.97 respectively, with no环比 changes [5]. - **Fund Flows**: - Latest values of A - shares, main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were -1164.11, -709.25, -, -366.27, and -41.53 respectively [5]. - **Trading Volume**: - Latest values of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized board, and ChiNext were 18442.79, 4451.68, 1125.97, 3578.93, and 4998.73 respectively, with环比 changes of 411.08, 164.04, 6.43, 11.72, and 76.38 [5]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: - IF, IH, and IC had basis of -14.84, 0.65, and -99.29 respectively, with amplitudes of -0.36%, 0.02%, and -1.57% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: - T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 had closing prices of 108.300, 105.630, 108.210, and 105.675 respectively, with percentage changes of -0.24%, -0.17%, -0.26%, and -0.17% [6]. - **Funding Rates**: - R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3642%, 1.6113%, and 1.5640% respectively, with daily changes of -25.00, 0.00, and 0.00 BP [6].

（文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 周三国际现货金价以3325.85美元开盘，最高上试3333.94美元，最低下探3267.7美元，报收3275.29美元，下跌51.09美元，跌幅1.54%，振幅1.99%，日K线 呈阶段破位下行长阴线。 美联储鹰歌高昂力挺美元大涨 金价遭遇二重咒创四周新低 2025年07月31日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 周三美元指数以98.92点开盘，最高上试99.97点，最低下探98.69点，报收99.94点，上涨1040点，涨幅1.05%，振幅1.30%，日K线长阳上行，续创五周新 高。 周三Wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以7022.10点开盘，最高上试7056.36点，最低下探6766.65点，报收6839.58点，下跌184.12点，跌幅2.62%，振幅4.12， 日K线呈大幅回调长阴线，创三周新低。 周三国际现货银价下跌2.76%，报收37.13美元；现货铂金价格下跌6.02%，报收1311.25美元；现货钯金价格下跌2.95%，报收1217.50美元。 周三美元指数在美国经济数据利好，以及美联储强硬鹰歌伴奏背景下，大幅突破季度线反压后强劲上行。贵金属全线 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Asian stock market is showing increased sensitivity to global macroeconomic data, particularly after key countries release economic data and central bank policy updates [1] - Recent performance indicates a 0.7% decline in the MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) index, although it is still on track for a fourth consecutive month of gains [1] - The decline is primarily attributed to underwhelming economic activity in certain Asian economies and significant fluctuations in commodity prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for July in the region fell short of market expectations, indicating weakened business activity and raising concerns about the economic recovery outlook [1] - The Japanese yen strengthened following the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates while raising its annual inflation forecast, signaling a potential future interest rate hike [1] Group 3: U.S. Economic Context - The market is closely monitoring the trade agreement between the U.S. and South Korea, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [5] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates for the fifth consecutive time, with rare dissent from two members, indicating internal disagreements on the interest rate path [5] - Despite a stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter, core data suggests that economic momentum may be weakening [5] Group 4: Technology Sector Performance - Strong earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta have led to a 1.2% increase in Nasdaq futures and a 0.8% rise in S&P 500 futures, indicating robust profitability in large tech firms, particularly in cloud computing and AI advertising [6] - This performance provides positive support for the overall market [6] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to closely monitor inflation and growth data from major economies, as uncertainty in monetary policy may lead to continued volatility in exchange rates and stock markets [6] - It is recommended that investors adjust their positions to manage risk exposure and capitalize on trading opportunities amid market fluctuations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has decided to maintain its interest rates, leading to a short-term increase in the USD/JPY exchange rate by 20 points, currently reported at 148.95 [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's decision to keep interest rates unchanged indicates a continuation of its current monetary policy stance [1] - The immediate market reaction saw the USD/JPY exchange rate rise by 20 points, reflecting investor sentiment towards the yen and dollar dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China has shown strong resilience and vitality, performing better than market expectations in the first half of the year [1] - The total cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - The net inflow of cross-border funds for non-bank sectors was $127.3 billion, continuing the net inflow trend observed since the second half of last year [1] Group 2 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has made significant progress in promoting the facilitation of cross-border trade and investment, with over $700 billion in related facilitation business processed nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 11% [2] - The number of banks participating in foreign exchange business reform has reached 22, with over 20,000 clients classified as primary clients, an increase of 23% from the end of last year [2] - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets has remained stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion and a net increase of $10.1 billion in foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year [2] Group 3 - The SAFE has expanded cross-border trade facilitation policy trials to more free trade zones, including support for banks to optimize international trade settlement and simplify business processes [3] - New policies to enhance cross-border investment and financing have been introduced, including direct management of foreign debt registration by banks and shared foreign debt quotas for financing leasing companies [3] Group 4 - Economic high-quality development, steady progress in opening up, and increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market are expected to support the continued stable operation of China's foreign exchange market [4]

Core Viewpoint - In June, the interbank foreign exchange market in China showed stable trading performance amid increasing geopolitical risks, easing uncertainties in U.S. trade policies, and new progress in China-U.S. economic and trade consultations [1] Trading Volume - The average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market reached $208.217 billion in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.71% and remaining above $200 billion for three consecutive months [3] - The average daily trading volume for the RMB foreign exchange market was $152.444 billion, reflecting an 8.89% year-on-year increase but a 3.58% month-on-month decline [3] - The foreign currency market and foreign currency interest rate market saw trading activity increase by over 30% year-on-year [3] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar index initially rose and then fell, ending June at 96.77, a depreciation of 2.68% for the month [2] - The RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar fluctuated and rose, with the central parity rate on June 20 at 7.1695 [2] - The CFETS index for the RMB against a basket of currencies fell to 95.35 points by the end of June, a cumulative depreciation of 0.64% for the month [2] Interest Rate Differentials - The interest rate differential between China and the U.S. continued to narrow, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping to 4.23% by the end of June [4] - The 10-year China-U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed to -264 basis points, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous month [4] Swap Points - The 1-year swap points rose to -1866 basis points by the end of June, an increase of 194 basis points, marking the highest level in nearly eight months [4] - The difference between the 1-year swap points and the theoretical value based on interest rate parity turned positive, ending at 117 basis points, the highest this year [5] - The overnight interest rate differential between domestic and foreign dollars remained negative throughout June, with the month-end rate at -18 basis points [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has announced the central exchange rates for the Renminbi against various currencies as of July 30, 2025, indicating a stable currency valuation in the foreign exchange market [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - The central exchange rate for 1 US dollar is set at 7.1441 Renminbi, while 1 Euro is at 8.2703 Renminbi [1]. - Other notable exchange rates include 100 Japanese Yen at 4.8238 Renminbi, 1 British Pound at 9.5602 Renminbi, and 1 Australian Dollar at 4.6638 Renminbi [1]. - The exchange rates for several other currencies are also provided, such as 1 Canadian Dollar at 5.1983 Renminbi and 1 Swiss Franc at 8.8869 Renminbi [1]. Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism - The central exchange rate for the Renminbi against the Hong Kong Dollar is determined based on the daily Renminbi to US Dollar exchange rate and the Hong Kong Dollar to US Dollar rate in the international market [2]. - For other currencies, the exchange rates are calculated by averaging the quotes from market makers after excluding the highest and lowest bids [2].