Core Viewpoint - Investment expert Duan Yongping raises an interesting question about which asset class will be the most or least valuable in five years, using seven asset types currently valued at 5 million each as a basis for discussion [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Analysis - Moutai stock is considered a stable investment, likely to appreciate over the next five years due to its status as a benchmark in the A-share market [1][3]. - Bitcoin is seen as highly volatile, with potential for significant price increases, but concerns exist regarding the emergence of new cryptocurrencies [2][9]. - Gold is expected to rise in value due to monetary easing policies in both China and the U.S., making it a favorable hedge against inflation [2][12]. - Nvidia stock is viewed with skepticism, as the rise of Chinese semiconductor companies could pose a threat to its market position [2][18]. - Berkshire Hathaway stock faces uncertainty due to the potential retirement of Warren Buffett, which could impact its future performance [2][19]. - Real estate in core areas of Beijing or Shanghai is anticipated to stabilize, with rental yields around 2.5%, but long-term price appreciation remains uncertain [2][14]. - Luxury goods, specifically classic LV bags, are predicted to depreciate significantly due to lack of cash flow and changing consumer preferences [2][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - A diversified investment strategy is suggested, allocating 50% to gold, 15% to Berkshire Hathaway, 15% to Bitcoin, 10% to Nvidia, and 10% to Moutai, emphasizing a balanced approach rather than a single asset bet [5][6]. - The importance of understanding the underlying value of assets is highlighted, with a preference for investments that generate cash flow, such as stocks, over those reliant on market consensus [9][10]. - The potential for significant negative returns in luxury goods and cryptocurrencies is acknowledged, with a focus on more stable investments like Moutai and Berkshire Hathaway [16][19].

Core Viewpoint - LVMH has faced unexpected setbacks in its acquisition attempts within the luxury goods sector, particularly in its battles for Gucci and Hermès, highlighting the intense competition in the luxury market [1] Group 1: Acquisition Challenges - LVMH's attempts to acquire Gucci and Hermès have not been successful, marking significant challenges in its expansion strategy [1] - The luxury goods sector is characterized by fierce competition, with major players like LVMH vying for dominance [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The luxury market is described as a thrilling game of predator and prey, indicating the high stakes involved in acquisitions [1] - The ongoing rivalry among luxury brands suggests a complex landscape where strategic moves can lead to significant shifts in market power [1]

Group 1: Kering and Gucci - Kering's credit outlook has been downgraded to negative by S&P Global Ratings, primarily due to a significant decline in sales from its core brand Gucci [3] - In the first half of the year, Kering reported total revenue of €7.587 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, and net profit plummeted by 46% to €474 million [3] - Gucci contributed over half of Kering's profits, and its poor performance has directly impacted the group's overall revenue and profitability [3] Group 2: Management Changes at Kering - Kering's management is undergoing a series of adjustments, with new CEO Luca de Meo, who has experience in brand revitalization and business transformation, planning to restructure the group and allocate more resources to potential brands like Balenciaga [4] Group 3: Tapestry and Coach - Tapestry, the parent company of Coach, reported a revenue increase of 8.3% to $1.723 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, exceeding analyst expectations [7] - Coach's revenue grew by 14.3%, while Kate Spade's revenue declined by 13% in the same quarter, indicating a mixed performance within Tapestry's brand portfolio [7] - The company anticipates an additional cost of approximately $160 million due to tariffs, which has led to a significant drop in its stock price [7] Group 4: Valentino's CEO Departure - Jacopo Venturini, CEO of Valentino, has resigned for personal reasons, marking his third departure from the company [10] - Valentino's financial situation is under pressure, with a projected 2% decline in sales to €1.31 billion and a 22% drop in core operating profit for 2024 [10] Group 5: Amer Sports Performance - Amer Sports, the parent company of Arc'teryx, is expected to continue exceeding revenue expectations, driven by strong performance from brands like Salomon and Arc'teryx [11] - UBS analysts have raised the target price for Amer Sports from around $37 to $50, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential [13] - Amer Sports has seen a remarkable 224% return on investment over the past year, with several investment firms maintaining a buy or outperform rating [13]

Core Viewpoint - COACH has successfully repositioned itself in the luxury market by appealing to the younger, discerning Generation Z, leading to significant revenue growth despite a general downturn in the luxury sector [6][15]. Group 1: Financial Performance - COACH's revenue reached nearly $1.3 billion, accounting for 82% of the company's total income, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, contributing to a 7% overall company growth [6]. - COACH entered the top five of the global fashion search engine Lyst's popular brand list for the first time, with its Brooklyn bag and Cherry bag charm ranking first and fourth in the popular items list, respectively [6]. Group 2: Product Strategy - COACH has adopted a strategy of maintaining the continuity of popular products, enhancing brand resilience and revenue capacity, with no single product line accounting for more than 10% of sales [13]. - The brand has introduced various iterations of its Tabby bag, which has become a social media sensation, with over 34.2 million posts related to it on TikTok [11][19]. Group 3: Market Positioning - COACH has shifted from a "light luxury" positioning to "Expressive Luxury," targeting Generation Z consumers who seek quality and design without exorbitant prices [15]. - The brand's customization options align with the current trend of personalized accessories, appealing to younger consumers who prefer unique expressions of style [16][18]. Group 4: Marketing and Social Media - COACH's resurgence is bolstered by significant social media marketing efforts, including collaborations with influencers and the creation of trending hashtags to engage consumers [21]. - Despite growth in China, COACH's performance has been modest compared to North America, as younger consumers gravitate towards brands with higher social value, such as Miu Miu and Ralph Lauren [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving consumer behavior amidst economic pressures, highlighting a shift from impulsive spending to more intentional and selective purchasing decisions. Consumers are adapting to uncertainties and maintaining a sense of control over their spending choices [2][6][21]. Group 1: Consumer Pressure Index - The latest Consumer Pressure Index report from Kearney indicates that while economic pressures persist, they have not significantly increased in most regions [2][4]. - Inflation and housing costs are identified as the two main sources of anxiety for global consumers, with rising expenses in food and energy contributing to ongoing stress [4][5]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - Consumers are transitioning from a mindset of "buying everything" to "selectively choosing," reflecting a return to a sense of control over their purchases [7][8]. - The concept of "revenge spending" has evolved into a more restrained yet powerful form of consumer expression, where individuals make conscious choices to assert their preferences in a volatile market [8][21]. Group 3: Consumer Mindsets - Consumers can be categorized into three psychological states: "Enjoyment Tribe," "Scarcity Tribe," and "Neutral Tribe," each exhibiting different spending behaviors based on external circumstances [16][11]. - The article suggests that consumers are not merely reacting to pressure but are also seeking novelty and meaningful experiences in their purchases [17][19]. Group 4: Trends and Implications for Brands - The market is entering a phase of brand consolidation, where established brands may struggle if they do not adapt to changing consumer values that prioritize relevance over mere recognition [22][23]. - Brands that focus on delivering emotional value and joy, rather than amplifying consumer anxiety, are more likely to succeed in the current environment [21][26]. - The article highlights three emerging trends: the rise of selective purchasing, the importance of emotional engagement in branding, and the redefinition of everyday value through smarter consumption [22][25][26].

Group 1 - The first China International Consumer Products Expo has announced its initial list of participating brands, featuring a range of international luxury brands [2] - The brands span various categories including high-end luxury goods, cosmetics, apparel, footwear, bags, watches, home goods, textiles, silk, kitchenware, and handicrafts [2] - Notable brands include Kering's jewelry brands Boucheron, Pomellato, and Qeelin, as well as L'Oréal, Richemont's watch brands such as Baume & Mercier, Panerai, Vacheron Constantin, and Roger Dubuis [2] Group 2 - Several brands are set to launch new products specifically for the expo, including a new watch from Swiss brand Rado and exclusive product launches from L'Oréal [2] - L'Oréal will showcase its 16 beauty brands, offering immersive experiences for attendees [2] - Johnson & Johnson will participate with eight brands across skincare, maternal and infant care, and personal care categories [2]

Group 1 - Dolce & Gabbana (D&G) faced significant backlash in 2018 after releasing a controversial advertisement that was perceived as derogatory towards Chinese culture, leading to a 20% drop in sales and a similar decline in brand value [3][12] - The brand's exposure in media decreased to only 1/10 of previous levels due to widespread boycotts from both Chinese consumers and international celebrities [3][12] - Swatch Group recently faced criticism for a promotional image that perpetuated racial stereotypes, which sparked outrage on social media [5][11] Group 2 - Swatch's delayed apology and lack of immediate public relations response failed to quell consumer anger, highlighting the importance of timely communication in crisis management [5][12] - The company reported an 11.2% decline in sales and an 88% drop in net profit, attributing these losses to challenges in the Chinese market, which is crucial for its revenue [12][14] - Despite the downturn, the Chinese market contributed 2.63 billion Swiss francs in sales, accounting for 33.3% of the group's total revenue, indicating its significance to Swatch's overall performance [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversies faced by international brands, particularly in the context of advertising that has been perceived as discriminatory or culturally insensitive, highlighting the need for brands to understand and respect local cultures when entering new markets [3][10]. Group 1: Swatch Controversy - Swatch faced backlash due to a controversial advertisement featuring a "squinty-eyed" image, which sparked discussions about cultural sensitivity in marketing [3][10]. Group 2: Philipp Plein Incident - Philipp Plein produced a limited batch of T-shirts with offensive slogans in 2007, which resurfaced years later, leading to public outrage and a subsequent apology from the brand [4][6]. - Despite the apology, the brand's reputation suffered in China, with limited offline presence and a lack of widespread recognition [6]. Group 3: Dolce & Gabbana's Missteps - Dolce & Gabbana faced significant backlash in 2018 for an advertisement that depicted an Asian model struggling to use chopsticks, which was deemed racially insensitive [7]. - The brand's founders issued a public apology after a wave of criticism and celebrity boycotts, highlighting the importance of cultural respect in marketing [7][10]. Group 4: Dior's Advertising Issues - Dior's 2023 makeup advertisement featuring an Asian model performing a "pulling the eyes" gesture led to accusations of Asian discrimination, echoing previous controversies [8][9]. - The brand clarified that the controversial image was part of an artistic project rather than a commercial advertisement, but the incident raised questions about the portrayal of Asian aesthetics in marketing [10]. Group 5: Recommendations for Brands - Experts suggest that international brands should adopt a more humble approach when entering new markets, emphasizing the importance of understanding local customs, culture, and consumer preferences to avoid marketing failures [10].

研究报告 Research Report 17 Aug 2025 中国 & 香港 & 美国可选消费 China (A-share) & Hong Kong & US Discretionary 可选消费 W33 周度趋势解析：海外消费表现优异，新消费主题股价稳健回暖 Week 33 Discretionary Trends: Overseas Consumption Performs Well, New Consumption- Themed Stocks Steadily Recover [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 耐克 | Outperform 德业股份 | | Outperform | | 美的集团 | Outperform 波司登 | | Outperform | | 京东集团 | Outperform 石头科技 | | Outperform | | 格力电器 | Outperform 永辉超市 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - International brands need to abandon their "arrogance" and respect local cultures to avoid controversies and enhance their market presence in China [1] Group 1: Controversial Advertising Cases - Swatch faced backlash for a "slant-eyed" promotional image, highlighting a trend of international brands producing ads that are perceived as discriminatory [2] - Philipp Plein's controversial T-shirts with offensive slogans resurfaced years later, leading to public outrage and a subsequent apology from the brand [3] - Dolce & Gabbana's 2018 advertisement featuring an Asian model struggling with chopsticks was criticized for racial and gender insensitivity, resulting in a boycott from Chinese celebrities and the cancellation of a fashion show [5] - Dior's recent advertisement featuring an Asian model performing a "pulling the eye" gesture sparked significant controversy, with accusations of promoting "Asian discrimination" [6][7] Group 2: Brand Image and Market Strategy - The backlash from these incidents has negatively impacted the brand image of international luxury brands in China, leading to a decline in consumer trust [7] - Experts suggest that international companies should adopt a more humble approach, understanding local customs and consumer preferences to effectively promote their brands in new markets [7] - Dolce & Gabbana has been attempting to repair its reputation in China by participating in significant events like the China International Import Expo [8]