Market Overview - On December 29, the spot settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 123,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 2,000 CNY from the previous working day [1] - The price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) remained stable at 96,000 CNY/ton [1] - The current spot market is characterized by a lack of transactions, with some entities and traders facing significant losses from previous hedging [1] Futures Market - On December 29, lithium carbonate futures opened at 134,500 CNY but experienced a significant drop in the afternoon, closing at 118,820 CNY/ton, down 10,180 CNY from the previous trading day [1] - The reduction in open interest indicates a growing trend of profit-taking among long positions [1] Price Trends - The average price level for lithium iron phosphate cells suggests that the terminal's tolerance for lithium carbonate prices is around 110,000 CNY [4] - The price changes for various lithium products from December 26 to December 29 include: - Lithium concentrate increased by 10 CNY to 1,590 CNY [2] - Battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices remained unchanged [2] Market Sentiment - Market opinions on the recent drop in lithium carbonate futures are mixed, with 70% of respondents expecting a bullish or stable market, while 30% anticipate a bearish trend, primarily from downstream companies [7] - Optimists believe that despite the afternoon price drop, overall resources remain tight, while some downstream users express concerns that high lithium carbonate prices may impact the economic viability of energy storage [7] Industry Insights - According to the production schedule for January, overall lithium battery production is expected to decline slightly, but the decrease is less significant than in previous off-seasons [10] - The supply-demand dynamics remain robust, with only lithium iron phosphate manufacturers experiencing increased maintenance [10] - The market is expected to see wide fluctuations leading up to the New Year due to the rapid increase in recent prices and slow cost transmission to downstream [10]

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the production trends in the lithium battery industry for January, indicating a slight decline in production for both domestic and overseas battery manufacturers [1]. Group 1: Production Data - Domestic battery sample enterprises produced 142.54 GWh in January, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.23% [1]. - Overseas battery sample enterprises produced 23.6 GWh, with a month-on-month decline of 0.63% [1]. - The production of cathodes reached 163,250 tons, showing a significant month-on-month decrease of 12.82% [1]. - The production of anodes was 154,000 tons, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 1.3% [1]. - The production of separators was 2.015 billion square meters, indicating a month-on-month increase of 1.76% [1]. - The production of electrolytes was 105,500 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.76% [1]. Group 2: Market Research Report - The company is offering a pre-sale for a research report on the global lithium battery application market trends and competitive strategies from 2025 to 2029 [1].

展望"十五五"，眉山将认真贯彻落实省委、市委全会部署，紧扣兴产聚人目标，突出新型工业化主导作 用，因地制宜发展新质生产力，全力推动制造业向高端化、智能化、绿色化迈进，加快打造成渝地区先 进制造创新转化高地。黄文利介绍，重点将从三大方面协同发力： 一是聚焦产业能级提升，夯实高端化根基。眉山将继续壮大以新能源新材料为引领的"1+3"产业集群， 前瞻布局空天信息、生物制造等未来产业。深度融入成渝地区双城经济圈产业分工，加快嵌入锂电、光 伏等国家级产业集群建设。 同时，以打造"西部中试转化基地"为核心，构建"1+N"中试体系，强化企业创新主体地位，推动固态电 池、钙钛矿电池等前沿技术成果在眉山加速转化落地。 二是聚焦数实深度融合，激活智能化引擎。全市将实施"智改数转"诊断全覆盖，建设一批先进级智能工 厂和数字化车间，推动规上工业企业关键工序数控化率大幅提升。积极开展人工智能赋能行动，建 设"新型储能+""空天+"等示范应用场景。夯实数字基础设施，深化"5G+工业互联网"融合应用，推进大 数据中心、智算中心建设，打造数智融合示范区。 12月26日，中国共产党眉山市第五届委员会第十二次全体会议胜利召开。会后，市委举行新闻 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong demand for lithium battery downstream energy storage since 2025, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand, which is expected to drive price increases in the industry [1] - Lithium battery materials have been at low prices for an extended period, resulting in the clearance of substantial production capacity, and the current industry concentration is high, making effective capacity insufficient to meet explosive demand growth [1] - The price of lithium iron phosphate has increased by over 30% this year, with strong demand for high-end products; negative electrode materials are operating at full capacity, and the diaphragm industry is entering a second round of price increases [1] Group 2 - In terms of energy storage, domestic policy changes (Document 136) and capacity electricity pricing have altered revenue models, increasing project IRR to between 6% and 12%, significantly enhancing installation willingness [1] - In the overseas market, the U.S. is driven by IRA policy incentives and AIDC storage, while Europe is shifting from household storage to large-scale storage dominance, and emerging markets are propelled by energy transition goals [1] - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (159387) tracks the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which has a daily fluctuation of 20%, selecting technology innovation companies in clean energy, new energy vehicles, and energy storage sectors to reflect the overall performance of cutting-edge technology enterprises in the new energy field [1]

国信证券近日发布锂电产业链双周评：电池端，宁德时代与岚图签署十年深化合作协议；宁德时代与思 源电气签署3年50GWh储能合作备忘录。材料端，宁德时代与韩国Enchem签署35万吨电解液订单；华友 钴业与国际知名客户签署7.96万吨三元前驱体订单；海科星源与法恩莱特签署电解液溶剂及添加剂3年 27万吨订单。 固态电池产业化加速推进：材料端，欣旺达动力与中伟股份签署固态电池战略合作框架协议。电池端， 美国QuantumScape与全球前十汽车制造商签署联合开发固态电池协议；美国Factorial宣布，已与CGCT 达成最终业务合并协议，双方合并后Factorial将在纳斯达克挂牌上市；金龙羽拟设15亿元产业并购基 金，聚焦新能源固态电池产业链投资。 锂电产业链大单不断：电池端，宁德时代与岚图签署十年深化合作协议；宁德时代与思源电气签署3年 50GWh储能合作备忘录。材料端，宁德时代与韩国Enchem签署35万吨电解液订单；华友钴业与国际知 名客户签署7.96万吨三元前驱体订单；海科星源与法恩莱特签署电解液溶剂及添加剂3年27万吨订单。 多家磷酸铁锂企业公告进行部分产线检修：12月25日至26日，湖南裕能、万润新能 ...

【导读】商业航天板块持续活跃，神剑股份 8 连板；锂电股集体下挫； *ST 长药 20cm 跌 停 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好！又到周一，来一起关注最新的市场行情和资讯 ~ 12 月 29 日， A 股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，上证指数高开 0.02% ，深证成指平开，创业板 指跌 0.19% 。开盘后，市场持续分化。截至发稿，上证指数涨 0.19% ，创业板指跌 0.83% 。 热门板块中，上午商业航天板块持续火热，神剑股份走出 8 连板；化学纤维、稀土、 GPU 等方向活跃；锂电、动力电池、玻璃纤维、 SPD 等概念股回调。 | 商业航天 | 2249.140 | 0.35% | 7.855 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 886078.TI | | | | | 光威复材 | 39.80 - | 14.14% | 4.93 | | 创 300699.SZ | | | | | 斯瑞新材 | 42.78 | 12.94% | 4.90 | | 科创 688102.SH | | | | | 中超控股 | 6.89 | 10.06% | 0.63 | | 002471.SZ | | | ...

Group 1: Global and Domestic Battery Production - In January, global major companies' planned battery production totaled 161.04 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 3.8% [1] - Domestic battery production in January reached 142.44 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 39.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.2% [1] - Overseas battery production in January was 18.6 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% [1] Group 2: Domestic Battery Manufacturers - The leading domestic manufacturer C planned to produce 75.5 GWh in January, a year-on-year increase of 47.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.6% [1] - The second-ranked manufacturer B planned to produce 24.8 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.8% [1] - The third-ranked manufacturer Z planned to produce 12.4 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 96.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.1% [1] - The fourth-ranked manufacturer E planned to produce 12.19 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 61.7% and no month-on-month change [1] - The fifth-ranked manufacturer G planned to produce 12.05 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 84.0% and no month-on-month change [1] Group 3: Key Material Production - For lithium iron phosphate cathodes, planned production totaled 116,000 tons in January, a year-on-year increase of 30.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 16.5% [1] - For anodes, planned production reached 189,500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.3% [1] Group 4: Separator Production - Planned production of separators in January totaled 201,500 million square meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.2% and a month-on-month increase of 1.8% [2] - The leading manufacturer E planned to produce 114,500 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 77.5% and a month-on-month increase of 6.0% [2] - The second-ranked manufacturer Z planned to produce 46,000 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 119.0% but a month-on-month decrease of 2.1% [2] Group 5: Electrolyte Production - Planned production of electrolytes in January totaled 105,500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 57.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.8% [3] - The leading manufacturer T planned to produce 73,500 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.6% [3] - The second-ranked manufacturer X planned to produce 32,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 68.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.0% [3]

本周，市场继续反弹。从12月17日开始，上证指数日K线八连涨，追平了今年4月8日-17日的八连 涨纪录。 当前已是牛市，且慢牛特征明显，看多做多是主旋律，仅需要在不同的行情阶段适当控制一下节奏 及注意策略即可。 从全周的表现来看，市场呈现"中间更强"的特征，中证500指数、创业板指数周涨幅位居前两位， 涨幅均超过3.9%；微盘股指数涨幅最小，全周仅涨0.7%。 那么，八连涨之后，市场会再创新高吗？后市机会在哪里？今天，达哥和牛博士就大家关心的话题 进行讨论。 牛博士：达哥，你好，又到周末我们聊行情的时间。虽然本周大盘涨幅很小，但大盘五连阳以及热 点发力确实让市场暖意明显。对于后市，你是如何看待的？ 道达：对于大市及市场风格，除了宽基指数之外，我平时也观察一些风格指数。 就在本周，平均股价指数创下了本轮牛市以来的新高，这是市场对后续行情看好的表现。 此外，主要指数中，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指数距离年内高点还有不到2%的差距。 就上证指数来看，目前距离9-10月的上升趋势线已经非常近了，下周一很有可能突破这条趋势线。 12月8日，上证指数反弹到该趋势线附近时遇阻，并展开调整。另外，达哥本周也提过，年内上证 指 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals reflecting North American AI infrastructure and resource logic, while new sectors like commercial aerospace ETFs are gaining attention during market fluctuations [2] - The focus on sectors such as chemicals and engineering machinery indicates a shift in China's manufacturing competitiveness towards pricing power, while sectors related to anti-involution, like new energy and steel, are also showing signs of recovery [2] - The investment strategy suggests a preference for sectors with low heat and concentration but potential for long-term ROE improvement, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and new energy, alongside a keen observation of the trend of RMB appreciation [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the favorable conditions for the spring market rally, emphasizing liquidity-driven characteristics in the A-share market, with expectations for a surge in the CSI A500 ETF towards year-end [3] - It notes that the spring market is supported by loose liquidity, with private equity making concentrated purchases and the RMB's appreciation benefiting market liquidity [3] - The potential for a spring rally is further supported by upcoming events like the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, which may enhance risk appetite [3] Group 3 - The article indicates that the RMB's appreciation post "breaking 7" is expected to have a positive impact on both the currency and capital markets, with a potential for a spring rally [4][5] - It outlines four key logic points regarding the impact of RMB appreciation on industry allocation, including benefits for industries with high import reliance, those with significant foreign currency liabilities, and domestic demand-driven sectors [5] - The article suggests that the current market conditions do not show clear signs of a bull market peak, with internal policies remaining supportive and external risks easing [6] Group 4 - The article identifies new investment themes emerging in the commodity market and real industry chains, highlighting the increasing consumption of physical goods in manufacturing sectors and the strengthening of China's manufacturing advantages [7] - It recommends focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors like equipment exports and domestic manufacturing recovery [7] - The article emphasizes the importance of capital market expansion and the potential for non-bank financial sectors to benefit from improving asset returns [7] Group 5 - The article states that the A-share market's cross-year rally has begun, driven by positive signals from the Shanghai Composite Index and optimistic institutional investor expectations [8] - It highlights the importance of sectors like non-ferrous metals and AI computing, with commercial aerospace being a primary market focus [8] - The article suggests that the spring market may see a structural and rapid rotation of sectors, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a low-buying strategy [12]

【导读】商业航天板块持续活跃，神剑股份（002361）8连板；锂电股集体下挫；*ST长药（300391）20cm跌停 大家好！又到周一，来一起关注最新的市场行情和资讯~ 12月29日，A股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，上证指数高开0.02%，深证成指平开，创业板指跌0.19%。开盘后，市场持续分化。截至发稿，上证指数涨 0.19%，创业板指跌0.83%。 | 3971.22 | -- 13547.23 | 3216.87 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 +0.19% | 深证成指 -0.42% | 创业板指 -0.83% | 热门板块中，上午商业航天板块持续火热，神剑股份走出8连板；化学纤维、稀土、GPU等方向活跃；锂电、动力电池、玻璃纤维、SPD等概念股回调。 商业航天板块持续活跃 神剑股份8连板 华西证券（002926）研报认为，这一举措落地标志着科创板"1+6"改革持续深化，为处于大规模商业化关键期的商业航天企业提供了更便捷的直接融资渠 道，将加速资本与产业的深度融合。 欣旺达盘初跌近16% 12月29日上午，欣旺达（300207）低开低走，盘初一度跌近16%，最低价报25元/股。 消 ...