Group 1 - The cement industry is undergoing the most stringent regulatory actions in history to address the long-standing issue of "capacity mismatch" [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued a draft requiring companies to complete capacity rectification applications by the end of 2025, making government-approved capacity a core requirement for production licenses [1][3] - The China Cement Association has also mandated strict checks on the discrepancies between actual and registered capacities, with deadlines for compliance [1] Group 2 - The mismatch between registered and actual capacities has become a chronic issue, disrupting market order and intensifying internal competition [3] - The national cement capacity utilization rate has dropped below 53% in 2024, marking a historical low, with demand expected to decline by nearly 10% in 2024 and 5% to 8% in 2025 [3] - Current national cement capacity exceeds 3.6 billion tons, with clinker capacity over 1.8 billion tons, leading to a severe overcapacity situation [3] Group 3 - The cement industry has seen a significant reduction in new capacity due to falling demand and prices, with 12 clinker production lines totaling 17.67 million tons of annual capacity halted since 2025 [4] - The operating rate of clinker kilns has dropped to around 50%, with further declines anticipated as demand continues to decrease [4] Group 4 - The industry is exploring a combination of market-driven and policy-guided approaches to address overcapacity, focusing on balancing supply and demand and optimizing resource allocation [5] - Industry consolidation is viewed as a fundamental solution, with calls for supportive policies to encourage mergers and acquisitions among companies in the same region [5] - Since the end of 2024, merger and acquisition activities in the cement industry have accelerated, with several notable transactions announced [5][6] Group 5 - Conch Cement has indicated that the industry is entering a significant consolidation window amid weakening demand and increasing competition, planning to pursue quality acquisition projects in low-concentration markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The cement and steel industries are facing significant challenges due to declining demand and prices, leading to a consensus among companies to implement production cuts and measures to protect profits, termed "anti-involution" policies [1][2][5]. Cement Industry - The China Cement Association issued an opinion on July 1, emphasizing the importance of capacity replacement policies for optimizing the cement industry's structure and promoting high-quality development [1]. - Major cement-producing provinces, Shandong and Sichuan, are implementing staggered production plans during the flood season, with kiln stoppages of 20 days and 15 days respectively in July [1]. - The cement industry is experiencing a downturn, with profits expected to decrease from 680 billion yuan in 2022 to 320 billion yuan in 2023 and further to 120 billion yuan in 2024, potentially leading to losses in 2025 if competition remains intense [6][9]. - The current average cement price is projected to decline from 419 yuan/ton in 2023 to 386 yuan/ton in 2024, and further to 381 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025 [6]. Steel Industry - The steel market is also under pressure, with prices at historical lows following a peak in 2021. The average price index for steel is expected to drop to approximately 3506 yuan/ton in 2025, down 331.6 yuan/ton from the previous year [3][7]. - Steel production companies are implementing production cuts, particularly in Tangshan, where hard emission reduction measures will be enforced from July 4 to 15, aiming to reduce iron output by about 50,000 tons per day [4]. - The steel industry's profits have significantly decreased, from 4240.9 billion yuan in 2021 to 365.5 billion yuan in 2022, and are projected to be 564.8 billion yuan in 2023 and 291.9 billion yuan in 2024 [6][10]. Market Dynamics - The overall market for both cement and steel is characterized by oversupply and weak demand, leading to a need for structural adjustments to avoid systemic collapse in the industry [9][11]. - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" measures are crucial for achieving a balance between supply and demand during periods of declining demand, which is essential for the healthy development of the industry [9][10]. - The current economic environment necessitates a long-term mechanism to address overcapacity and promote high-end differentiation in production to enhance competitiveness and profit margins [10][11].

反内卷政策解读：行业视角之水泥 20250707 摘要 水泥行业产能过剩严重，2024 年产能利用率仅为 53%，远低于非金属 矿业平均水平，且销量同比下降至少 10%。区域间发展不平衡加剧问题， 部分地区开窑率已降至 30%以下，行业面临突出的结构性矛盾。 水泥企业主要通过错峰生产和控产量应对内卷，但部分企业为追求规模 化和市场份额，不执行错峰生产，导致价格波动剧烈，破坏行业生态。 尽管如此，多数企业仍对反内卷政策抱有期望。 未来水泥价格预计将持续受供需矛盾影响，需加强自律手段，如精准错 峰限产和合规限产，以控制总量并稳定市场价格。或将出台更严格的自 律措施，通过政府或行业提升处罚力度。 区域性水泥企业对反内卷政策接受度较高，而全国性布局企业在控价能 力强的区域更积极。部分产能发挥不足或使用替代燃料的企业倾向于产 能双控，龙头企业也逐渐接受错峰生产。 国家层面推进供给侧结构性改革 2.0，遏制低价无序竞争，提升产品质 量。市场监管总局加大抽查力度，淘汰低水平粉磨站。但水泥行业自律 机制受反垄断法限制，需更高层次文件支持。 Q&A 未来水泥相关产品价格预计将继续受到供需矛盾加剧和需求不断下滑的影响。 在此背景 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent market focus on supply-side reform highlights the need to address "involution" in key industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e-commerce platforms, with various sectors facing fundamental pressures [2][10] Industry Analysis 1. Policy Direction - "Involution" competition includes low-price competition, homogenization, and excessive marketing from enterprises, as well as unfair local government policies and market barriers [4] - Key industries targeted for "anti-involution" measures include photovoltaics, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e-commerce platforms [4][10] - Measures to combat "involution" involve coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides, government behavior regulation, and industry self-discipline [4] 2. Current Industry Status - **Photovoltaics**: Prices are weak, with a June index showing a year-on-year decline of 11.8%. However, production remains strong, with a 18.3% increase in solar cell output from January to May [5][13] - **Automobiles**: Increased low-price competition is evident, with sales discount rates rising to 25.2% in June. This trend may lead to intensified price wars among manufacturers [5][18] - **Steel**: Production decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to May, while prices remain weak, with a 13.4% decline in steel prices from January to June [5][23] - **Cement**: Production fell by 4% year-on-year, and prices have weakened, with a June index showing a 2.4% decline [5][26] - **Pork**: Production is strong but prices are weak, with net profits per pig dropping significantly, indicating the industry is nearing losses [5][29] 3. Anti-Involution Measures - **Photovoltaics**: Industry self-discipline is emphasized, with major manufacturers collectively reducing production by 30% and signing self-regulatory agreements [8][14] - **Automobiles**: Self-regulation is key, with companies like BYD halting aggressive pricing strategies and standardizing supplier payment terms [8][18] - **Steel**: A combination of self-discipline and administrative guidance is being implemented, with industry associations urging companies to manage production and cash flow effectively [8][24] - **Cement**: Measures include industry self-discipline and media supervision to ensure compliance with production standards and to recognize compliant companies [8][27] - **Pork**: Administrative guidance is being utilized, with reports of government requests for major producers to control breeding and market supply [8][30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that comprehensive rectification of "involutionary" competition is a key measure to address current economic development contradictions, affecting both traditional and emerging industries [1][4][5] - The new round of anti-involution policies includes not only traditional industries like steel and cement but also emerging sectors such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries, which have a higher proportion of private enterprises [1][4][5] - The recent Central Economic Committee meeting highlighted the need to legally govern low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, signaling a national-level response to involution [2][5] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has initiated discussions with photovoltaic industry leaders to address production, innovation, and market competition challenges, aiming to support high-quality development in the sector [10] - The photovoltaic industry has faced significant pressure, with prices for silicon materials and components dropping below cash costs, leading to a substantial decline in profit margins [11][12] - Various industry associations, including those in steel, cement, and battery sectors, have called for a collective response to involution, advocating for quality over price competition and industry cooperation [13][15] Group 3 - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law, effective from October 15, 2025, aims to provide institutional tools to curb "involutionary" competition, particularly targeting platform operators to prevent forced low-cost sales [9] - Experts have identified two main causes of the current involution phenomenon: domestic economic adjustments leading to price sensitivity and external pressures on Chinese enterprises due to de-globalization [6][7] - The steel industry is particularly affected by involution, with a significant increase in crude steel production despite declining apparent consumption, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [15]

财经图解 . 财经大事早知道，关注东方财富股票！ 日前，高层会议提出"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出"，"反内卷"预期强化， 相关概念股近期表现较强。 政策发布后，各行业纷纷响应。头部光伏玻璃企业宣布自7月起集体减产30%，以缓解行业"内卷式"竞 争；中国水泥协会发布《关于进一步推动水泥行业"反内卷""稳增长"高质量发展工作的意见》，明确优 化产业结构；钢铁行业部分钢厂也收到减排限产通知。这些举措迅速传导至市场端，近日国内期货市场 铁矿石、多晶硅、焦煤等品种均有一定的上涨。 以下文章来源于财经图解 ，作者乘桴于海 仅供投资者参考，不构成投资建议 免责声明 文章转载自公众号"财经图解"，以上观点来自相关机构，不代表天天基金的观点，不对观点 的准确性和完整性做任何保证。收益率数据仅供参考，过往业绩和走势风格不预示未来表 分享、点赞、在看 顺手三连越来越有钱 内卷式恶性竞争是指行业内企业为争夺有限市场份额，通过低价倾销、重复建设等方式过度消耗资源， 导致全行业利润下降、创新停滞的现象。反内卷政策旨在通过规范市场竞争、淘汰落后产能，引导行业 从"量的扩张"转向 "质的提升"。 申万宏源表示，"反内 ...

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with a high furnace operating rate holding steady at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][9] - Chemical production shows signs of recovery, with operating rates for soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament increasing by 1.9 percentage points to -3.5%, 0.4 percentage points to 2.2%, and 0.5 percentage points to 4.2% respectively [2][17] - However, the operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires has significantly declined, down 7.7 percentage points to -9.0% [2][17] Group 2: Construction Industry - Asphalt production shows marginal improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2 percentage points to 6.8% [2][41] - Cement shipment rates remain low, down 1.8 percentage points to -4.2% year-on-year, while the national grinding operating rate is up 0.6 percentage points to -1.3% [2][29] Group 3: Demand Trends - Real estate transactions have significantly decreased, with average daily transaction area for new homes down 37.8% year-on-year to 32.7% [2][53] - Freight volumes related to exports have declined, with port cargo throughput down 3% year-on-year to 0.6% [2][62] - Conversely, travel intensity remains high, with the national migration scale index up 0.3 percentage points to 14.5% [2][74] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally decreased, with prices for eggs, fruits, vegetables, and pork down by 2.2%, 0.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [3][104] - Industrial product prices have seen a slight increase, with the South China industrial price index rising by 0.3% [3][116] - The metal price index increased by 1.8%, while the energy and chemical price index fell by 1% [3][116] Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - Railway freight volume has increased, up 0.9 percentage points to 3.3% year-on-year, while port cargo throughput has decreased [2][62] - Domestic flight operations have increased, with domestic flights up 1.9% year-on-year to 3.4% [2][74] Group 6: Consumer Behavior - Movie attendance has slightly decreased, down 2.6 percentage points to 5.7% year-on-year, but box office revenue has increased by 0.3% [2][80] - Automobile sales have shown a significant recovery, with retail and wholesale volumes up 9% to 26.7% and 23.8% to 48.7% respectively [2][80] Group 7: Export Trends - Container shipping prices have decreased, with the CCFI composite index down 1.9% [2][92] - The freight rate for the US West Coast has dropped significantly, down 10.5% [2][92]

反内卷政策落地加速构建水泥等行 业供需新平衡 2025 年 7 月 7 日 看好/维持 建材 行业报告 2025 年 7 月 1 日中央财经委员会第六次会议强调："纵深推进全国统一大市场 建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品 品质，推动落后产能有序退出"。 点评： 政策不断推进反内卷逐步在 2025 年落地，推动建材行业高质量发展。"防止内 卷式恶性竞争"在 2024 年 7 月的中共中央政治局会议上首次提出，2024 年 12 月中央经济工作会议中进一步强调要"综合整治内卷式竞争"。2025 年 7 月 1 日中央财经第六次会议再次强调"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点 难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产 能有序退出。"2025 年 7 月 1 日水泥协会发布《关于进一步推动水泥行业"反 内卷""稳增长"高质量发展工作的意见》，"反内卷"政策作为中央提出的政 策正在 2025 年逐步落地，成为推动建材行业高质量发展的重要动力。 水泥等行业反内卷政策力度会逐步加大，见实见效加速助力供给端优化。水泥 协会反内卷文件中明确提出：实际产能大于备 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 各行业如何"反内卷"？ ❖ 核心观点 近期市场对供给侧改革的关注升温，参照综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方 表态，反内卷的重点行业或包括光伏、锂电、新能源汽车、电商平台等。结合 数据可得性与行业进展，我们重点关注 5 个产业，近期其基本面均面临一定压 力，例如光伏价格偏弱但生产端持续偏强、汽车销售折扣率再度提升、钢铁水 泥价格仍然偏弱、生猪行业临近亏损等。从其反内卷措施来看，以行业自律、 行政指导、舆论监督为主，按照约束力排序，或是钢铁>生猪>汽车>水泥>光 伏，关注后续落地进展。 ❖ 一、政策如何定调？ 什么是"内卷式"竞争？参考求是中的界定，既包括企业端的低价竞争、同质 化竞争、与过度宣传营销，也包括政府端的"制造…不公平非普惠的优惠政策"、 "不顾地方产业基础和资源禀赋情况，盲目上马新兴产业、重点产业"、"保护 本地市场、扶持本地企业，设置或明或暗的市场壁垒"。 主要涉及哪些行业？综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方表态，反内卷的重点 行业或包括光伏、锂电、新能源汽车、电商平台等。 如何"反内卷"？参照求是《深刻认识和综合整治"内卷式"竞争》的阐述， 反内卷需 ...

#报告 高盛在供给侧改革情境下对中国水泥与钢铁的行业展望。 https://t.co/pzOST65SWoNone (@None):None ...