Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month, suggesting stability in the non-manufacturing sector [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall economic stability in output [1] Group 2 - Key sectors such as high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods are showing expansion, which is a positive highlight amidst the overall weak supply and demand in the manufacturing market [1] - There are signs of accelerated activity related to infrastructure investment within the non-manufacturing business activity index, which is noteworthy [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 500 billion yuan for local government debt limits to enhance financial capacity and expand effective investment, with an additional 200 billion yuan in special bonds for investment projects [2]

Economic Performance - The economic performance in the first three quarters of the year showed stability and progress, characterized by five key features: stable operation, strong momentum, improved quality and efficiency, significant resilience, and substantial potential [2] - The GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, maintaining a leading position among major global economies [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.2%, marking the highest growth for the same period since 2022 [2] - The innovation-driven development momentum has strengthened, with China's innovation index entering the global top ten for the first time, supporting the development of emerging industries [2] Green Development Initiatives - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is focusing on promoting the green development of high-energy-consuming computing power industries [4] - The NDRC plans to optimize the construction layout of computing power infrastructure to enhance efficiency and promote resource conservation [5] - The NDRC will implement strict energy-saving reviews and carbon emission evaluations for new computing power projects, encouraging higher standards based on local conditions [5] Financial Tools and Investment - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy-based financial tools has been fully allocated, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan [7] - The funding primarily targets sectors such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, consumer infrastructure, and urban renewal projects including transportation and energy [7] - The NDRC will guide local governments in effectively utilizing the new funding and accelerating the issuance and use of special bonds [7]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from September, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activities [1] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing were 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, reflecting declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points from September [1] - PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1%, showing declines of 1.1, 0.1, and 1.1 percentage points respectively [1] Group 2: Key Industries - The PMIs for high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors were 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone and significantly above the overall manufacturing level [2] - The high-energy-consuming industries had a PMI of 47.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from September, indicating a decline in economic activity [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from September, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [3] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.2%, reflecting a slight increase and improved economic conditions, particularly in transportation, accommodation, and entertainment sectors, which saw indices above 60.0% [3] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from September, indicating a slight decline in construction activity [3] Group 4: Economic Outlook - Overall, the non-manufacturing sector continues to stabilize, with positive changes in investment and consumption-related activities [4] - The effectiveness of growth-stabilizing policies is expected to strengthen domestic demand in the fourth quarter, supporting the achievement of annual economic and social development goals [4]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is reported at 49.0%, a significant decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, which is notably higher than the seasonal average decline of 0.4 percentage points observed from 2020 to 2024[2][5] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, while the new orders index decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%[5][15] - The new export orders index dropped to 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, marking the second-lowest level since the introduction of high tariffs in April 2025[5][20] - Small enterprises experienced a notable decline in PMI, falling 1.1 percentage points to 47.1%, while large enterprises' PMI decreased to 49.9%[6] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is at 50.1%, slightly up from 50.0% in the previous month, driven by holiday consumption[2][28] - The service sector showed improvement, with indices for transportation, retail, and entertainment exceeding 60%, indicating strong performance in consumer-related services[28] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, but new orders and business activity expectations increased, suggesting a potential recovery in infrastructure activities[34] Economic Outlook - The report highlights that the construction sector may benefit from the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond issuance, which could support infrastructure investment[4][34] - The overall economic environment remains cautious due to external trade uncertainties and domestic demand stability, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries[16][20]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an economic slowdown[1] - The composite PMI output index stands at 50.0%, suggesting overall stability in production and business activities[1] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs are at 50.5% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating continued expansion and support for the manufacturing sector[1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The production index for October is 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown in manufacturing production[2] - New orders index recorded at 48.8%, a decline of 0.9 percentage points, indicating reduced demand in the manufacturing sector[3] - New export orders fell to 45.9%, significantly lower than seasonal expectations, influenced by ongoing trade tensions[3] Group 3: Price Index and Economic Resilience - The manufacturing purchase price index is at 52.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 47.5%, also down 0.7 percentage points, indicating a general decline in price levels[7] - Despite the price index decline, new momentum-related industries show positive price trends, with equipment manufacturing prices rising for three consecutive months[7] - The composite PMI output index indicates economic resilience, with a slight decline of 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a convergence towards potential growth[10]

Core Insights - The PMI index for October indicates that high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries continue to expand, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, reflecting sustained industry support and overall optimistic market expectations [1][4]. Group 1: Key Industry Performance - The PMI for high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries are reported at 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, indicating continued expansion [4]. - The production and business activity expectation index stands at 52.8%, suggesting a positive outlook for market activities [4]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index has slightly rebounded to 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion zone [9]. - The service industry business activity index is reported at 50.2%, also reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase from last month, continuing its expansion [9].

Manufacturing Sector - The October Manufacturing PMI index is at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September[2] - The production index for October is 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points month-on-month[2] - The new orders index stands at 48.8%, reflecting a decline of 0.9 percentage points, with new export orders at 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points[2] - The raw material inventory index is at 47.3%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The October Non-Manufacturing PMI index is at 50.1%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, remaining above the threshold[10] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing is at 46.0%, unchanged from September, while the new export orders index is at 46.2%, down 3.6 percentage points[10] - The construction sector's PMI index is at 49.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued contraction[13] Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies for counter-cyclical adjustment and cross-cycle deployment as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes[1] - A total of 500 billion yuan has been allocated for local government debt to support effective investment, indicating ongoing efforts to stabilize growth[1] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector is at 56.1%, indicating strong confidence among service enterprises[15]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic output of China remains stable, with manufacturing showing signs of weakness while non-manufacturing sectors exhibit growth due to holiday consumption and infrastructure investment [2][3]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - In October, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, marking the end of a two-month upward trend [2][3]. - All 13 sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI declined, with the production index falling to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activities [3]. - The new export orders index fell to 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, reflecting tightening export demand due to global economic pressures and uncertainties in international trade [4]. Key Industries Performance - Despite the overall decline in manufacturing, three key sectors—high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods—maintained expansion with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively [5][6]. - These sectors showed resilience, with production and new orders indices around 51%, indicating stable growth supported by domestic market strength and effective policies [6]. Price Trends - Manufacturing prices are showing positive changes, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing experiencing rising purchase and factory price indices [7]. - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a decrease in purchase price index by 2.5 percentage points, indicating reduced cost pressures, which is beneficial for profit margins [7]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, reflecting ongoing expansion and a positive trend in service sector activities, particularly in transportation and hospitality due to holiday effects [8]. - Infrastructure investment activities are showing signs of acceleration, with the civil engineering construction index rising significantly, suggesting a solid foundation for growth in the fourth quarter [8].

Core Viewpoint - The PMI index for October indicates that high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries continue to expand, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, reflecting sustained industry support and overall optimistic market expectations [1][3][5]. Group 1: PMI Data - The PMI for high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries are 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, indicating continued expansion [5]. - The production and business activity expectation index stands at 52.8%, suggesting a positive outlook for market activities [5]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to the expansion zone [10]. - The service industry business activity index is at 50.2%, also up by 0.1 percentage points from last month, continuing its expansion [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the PMI index for October shows that high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries continue to be in the expansion zone, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, reflecting a sustained supportive role of these industries and an overall optimistic market expectation [1][5]. - The production and business activity expectation index is reported at 52.8%, indicating a positive outlook for future activities [5]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index has slightly rebounded to 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to the expansion zone [10]. Group 2 - The service industry business activity index stands at 50.2%, also reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, continuing its expansion [10]. - The comprehensive PMI output index is positioned at the critical point, suggesting a balanced outlook across sectors [11].