数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 碳酸锂产业日报 2025/5/13 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 63,220.00 | -820.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -26,740.00 | -3735.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 294,226.00 | +9895.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -1,200.00 | -240.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 36,194.00 | -157.00↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 64,600.00 | ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 碳酸锂市场加速下行，基差扩大叠加库存压 力 --碳酸锂周报2025-05-09 作 者：刘培洋 研 究 助 理 ：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 联 系 方 式：0371-58620083 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【现货市场】：电池级碳酸锂周跌1.72%至65700元/吨，工业级跌1.77%，基差周 | 短期价格或测试 | | | | 60000元/吨整数 | | | 环比激增88.73%至2680元/吨，现货升水结构强化。 | 关口，关注江西 | | | 【期货市场】：主力合约暴跌3.43%至63020元/吨，持仓量逆势增13.27%，波动率 | | | | | 云母提锂成本支 | | | 929显示空头主导。 | | | | 【供应方面】：4月全国产量环比降14.81%，江西锂云母路线同比大增97.06%，青 | 撑力度。 | | | | 风险提示： | | | 海盐湖产量环比增8.33%。 | 1.仓单注 ...

供应压力较大，锂价弱势寻底 碳酸锂周报20250512 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张重洋 从业资格号：Z0020996 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端-3月锂辉石进口量环比小幅减少 锂精矿月度进口量 锂矿石进口结构 -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 2021-04-01 2021-06-01 2021-08-01 2021-10-01 2021-12-01 2022-02-01 2022-04-01 2022-06-01 2022-08-01 2022-10-01 2022-12-01 2023-02-01 2023-04-01 2023-06-01 2023-08-01 2023-10-01 2023-1 ...

专题报告 2025-05-12 碳酸锂：2025Q1 海外锂资源供给更新 报告要点： 2025 年一季度，海外锂资源供给整体平稳，高成本矿山出清缓慢，供给压力仍存。澳洲出货 环比微减，主流矿山正常运行。南美盐湖继续爬产，阿根廷预计全年产量增长 75%，SQM 出货 提升 15%，而巴西硬岩扩张投产推迟。非洲供给在锂价低位面临成本挑战，一季度出货量同比 下滑近 1/4。多个硬岩项目的全维持成本已高于当前盘面价格，但上市公司经营调整较为谨 慎，建议后续关注 NAL、Marion、Wodgina 和非洲大型锂矿生产情况。 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 有色金属研究 | 碳酸锂 碳酸锂：2025Q1 海外锂资源供给更新 澳大利亚 2025 年一季度澳大利亚矿山出货量约为 95 万吨，环比小幅回落 2.7%。澳大利亚锂精矿出货量 符合前期判断，2025 年季度均值为 90-95 万吨。产量方面 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamental outlook for lithium carbonate remains bearish, with the potential for new lows in lithium prices. Although some smelters have cut or halted production due to the rapid decline in lithium prices, the marginal change in domestic supply is uncertain. Imported resources are expected to increase, and upstream production is expected to increase while costs decrease. There is no expected increase in demand, as the weak trend in terminal consumption is emerging, and the new replacement policy's ability to drive potential consumption is waning, which may suppress downstream purchasing power. The short - term decline in prices may be limited, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [3][13] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported and domestic lithium concentrates, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide all decreased. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB increased by 0.40%. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,807 tons (-2.97%). The price of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.75%, while the prices of cobalt - lithium oxide and ternary materials remained unchanged [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 12, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 36,351 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 63,820 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2507 was 289,400 lots. As of May 9, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,048 tons, a decrease of 128 tons from the previous period. Some hard - rock lithium extraction plants have cut or halted production, and the increase in production from the resumption of maintenance in May may be limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of salt - lake production [7] - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. The import volume from Chile was 12,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The import volume from Argentina was 4,646 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.3%. The increase in lithium salt shipped from Chile in March may push up the domestic supply scale in May. In March, the import volume of lithium ore was about 534,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8% [8][9] - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of May 9, the production of lithium iron phosphate was about 63,442 tons, with an operating rate of 58.6% (a decrease of 1.14 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 37,620 tons (a decrease of 535 tons from the previous period). The production of ternary materials was about 14,555 tons, with an operating rate of 40.0% (a decrease of 5.84 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 13,930 tons (an increase of 205 tons from the previous period). The prices of ternary materials declined slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly. Although the cathode material production schedule in May continued to expand, the terminal consumption was weak, and the cathode materials still faced over - capacity pressure [9][10] - In the new energy vehicle market, from April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 52.3%. The new energy consumption growth rate showed a pulsed pattern, and the potential consumption driven by policies was waning. The growth rate may decline significantly in the future [11] - As of May 9, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 91,762 tons, a decrease of about 2,807 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased by 21 tons, and the market inventory decreased by 2,828 tons. The social inventory decreased, but downstream purchasing did not pick up, and there was still strong wait - and - see sentiment. If prices stabilize, downstream may have a strong restocking expectation [12] This Week's Outlook - The fundamental outlook remains bearish, and the bearish sentiment persists. Although the short - term decline may be limited due to the strong resistance around 63,000 yuan, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [13] Industry News - During the "May Day" holiday in 2025, the national consumer market was prosperous. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 3 million. The sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased year - on - year. The service consumption continued to heat up [14] - On May 7, the General Office of the Guangdong Provincial People's Government issued a notice to encourage Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax vehicle purchase restrictions [14] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, imported lithium concentrates, and the production and supply structure of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related battery products [16][18][21][24][27]

碳 酸 锂 ¤ 评20250512：国内碳酸锂5月供给预期偏松,中美关税谈判取得初步成果 | | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-05-09 | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-30 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 63040.00 | 64500.00 | 65680.00 | -1.460.00 | | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 63100.00 | 64280.00 | 65880.00 | -1.180.00 | | | | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 64160.00 | 65240.00 | 65960.00 | -1,080.00 | | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 64160.00 | 65240.00 | 67060.00 | -1,080.00 | | | | | 收盘价 | 63020.00 | 64280.00 | 65960.00 | -1,260.00 | | | 碳酸锂期货 | 活跃合约 | 成交量(手) | 28940 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. has been rated AAA by Oriental Jincheng International Credit Rating Co., Ltd., indicating a stable credit outlook for the company and its upcoming green medium-term notes [1][2] - Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium operates a vertically integrated business model covering lithium resource development, lithium salt deep processing, lithium metal smelting, lithium battery manufacturing, and comprehensive recycling of lithium batteries, which enhances its synergy and overall strength [2] - The company is a significant global producer of lithium compounds and lithium metal, with abundant resource reserves and large-scale lithium processing capacity, ensuring a complete product supply [2] Group 2 - The sales volume of the company's lithium chemical products has been steadily increasing, supported by stable cooperation with major customers [2] - The revenue and gross profit from the company's lithium battery business, which includes power batteries, consumer batteries, and energy storage batteries, have shown continuous growth in recent years [2] - The company's equity has grown rapidly, significantly enhancing its capital strength [2] Group 3 - The company faces geopolitical and exchange rate fluctuation risks due to its primary lithium resources being located overseas, particularly concerning the potential cancellation of lithium mining concessions in Mexico [2] - The company reported losses for the period from January to September 2024, and the lithium supply-demand situation is expected to remain loose in the short term, putting pressure on profitability [2] - Significant capital expenditure is anticipated for future projects like the Mariana lithium salt lake construction, which may lead to short-term liquidity fluctuations [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年5月12日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为18349吨，环比增长26.69%,高于历史同期平均水平 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为86988吨，环比减少2.16%,上周三元材料 样本企业库存为15556吨，环比增加11.59%。 供给端，2025年4月碳酸锂产量为73810实物吨，预测下月产量为75500实物吨，环比 增加2.29%,2025年4月碳酸锂进口量为20000实物吨，预测下月进口量为24000实物 吨，环比增加20.00%。需求端，预计下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本 端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所减少，低于历史同期平均水平，供给过剩程度有所 加强，碳酸锂2507:在62420-63620区间震荡。 每日观点 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、 ...

锂价持续下跌至6.3万元/吨 锂价跌破7万元/吨，锂矿股上市公司一季度整体承压业绩出现分化。 据Wind统计，2025年一季度，A股锂矿板块21家上市公司中有14家盈利，7家亏损。5月9日，碳酸锂期 货主力合约再创新低，最低价跌至6.3万元/吨，已经接近"一体化"矿石提锂企业的成本线。 混沌天成期货分析认为，碳酸锂产能扩张周期延长、资源成本下移、需求增速受限等是导致碳酸锂供需 预期长期过剩，价格不断下跌的直接原因。 在这样的市场环境下，部分企业经营面临困境。一位矿业公司人士向第一财经记者透露，公司加工碳酸 锂所用的锂辉石为外购，目前成本抬升至高于现货售价，但生产却不能停，陷入了"卖一吨亏一吨"的局 面。 锂价跌破成本线，行业业绩分化 总体来看，Wind锂矿指数相关上市公司第一季度合计营收439.65亿元，同比增长16.03%；合计净利润 33.43亿元，同比增1340.4%。 同比2024年一季度业绩已有所好转，去年同期这些上市公司合计营收370.74亿元，同比下降39.93%；合 计净利润为亏损2.69亿元，同比降101.69%。 从企业营收情况来看，一季度仅1家公司营收超100亿元，为西部矿业（60116 ...

在保护头寸、增加收益上非常有效 期权是一个非常灵活的工具，不论是在单纯的交易策略，或是使用在套保之上，都有非常好的效果，因此企业如果原本使 用的是期货套保，那么可以适当地加入一些期权做成组合策略，不论是保护期货部位，或是增加整体收益，都是非常有效的。 我们都知道套保的重要性，也可能知道期货、期权这些衍生工具都可以用来套保，不过这些衍生工具要如何做组合套保 呢？这个问题可能大家就不是那么熟悉了，今天我们就介绍一下这些常见的衍生品套保工具差异，以及如何结合运用。 [期货与期权套期保值对比] 开篇先简单介绍几种套保工具的比较。第一，无套保情形。不做套保，标的物损益皆由投资人自行承担。第二，使用期货 套保。理论上可有效覆盖标的物损益，但同时失去了标的物可能的获利。第三，买进期权套保。最大获利为"标的物获利-付出权 利金"，虽然减少了获利程度，但把成本限制在所付出的权利金之内，并且还能跟随现货获利。第四，卖出期权套保。最大获利 为所收取的权利金，获利程度有限，而最大亏损为"标的物亏损+收取权利金"，在波动较大时无法完全覆盖标的物亏损，但能减 少部分损失。 表为期货与期权套期保值方式比较 从上表中我们可以看到，不同的套保 ...