行 业 农林牧渔行业 能繁母猪产能有望持续去化 2025 年 5 月 9 日 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：iFinD ，东莞证券研究 所 超配（维持） 农林牧渔行业双周报（2025/4/25-2025/5/8） 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： SW农林牧渔行业跑输沪深300指数。2025年4月25日-2025年5月8日，SW农 林牧渔行业上涨0.32%，跑输同期沪深300指数约1.49个百分点。细分板块 中，仅饲料和养殖业录得负收益，分别下跌0.08%和1.02%；动物保健、渔 业、种植业和农产品加工均录得正收益，分别上涨5%、2.19%、2.08%和2%。 估值方面，截至2025年5月8日，SW农林牧渔行业指数整体PB（整 ...

证券代码：002385 证券简称：大北农 北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-002 | 投资者关系活动 类别 | ☐特定对象调研 ☐分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | | ☐媒体采访 业绩说明会 | | | ☐新闻发布会 ☐路演活动 | | | ☐现场参观 ☐其他 | | 参与单位名称及人 | 线上参与公司2024年度业绩说明会的投资者 | | 员姓名 | | | 时间 | 2025年05月09日15:00-16:00 | | 地点 | 价值在线（https://www.ir-online.cn/）网络互动 | | | 董事兼总裁：谈松林 | | 上市公司接待人 | 独立董事：臧日宏 | | 员姓名 | 财务总监：姜晗 | | | 董事会秘书兼副总裁：尹伟 | | | 本次业绩说明会投资者提出的问题及公司回复情况如下： | | 投资者关系活动 | 一、种业板块 | | 主要内容介绍 | 1.请问公司2025年性状授权费预估多少? | | | 答：公司性状对应的实际种植面积市占率在2024年有60%左右，专利 | | | 许可收入符合预期。2025年，在加快推进 ...

2025 年 4 月生猪业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 湖南新五丰股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）现将 2025 年 4 月生猪业务主要经营数据公告如下： 证券代码：600975 证券简称：新五丰 公告编号：2025-023 湖南新五丰股份有限公司 1、上述披露仅包含公司生猪销售情况，不包含其他业务。 2、上述数据均未经审计，与定期报告披露的数据之间可能存在差异，上述 数据仅作为阶段性数据，供投资者参考。因四舍五入，以上数据可能存在尾差。 3、基于动物疫情对生猪行业的影响持续存在、生猪市场价格波动较大以及 公司养殖节奏变化等因素影响，未来公司生猪销量存在月度波动风险。 4、生猪市场价格变动的风险是整个生猪生产行业的系统风险，对任何一家 生猪生产者来讲都是客观存在的、不可控制的外部风险。 三、其他提示 一、主要经营数据 1、2025 年 4 月公司生猪销售情况 | 主要产品 | 销售量 | 销售量同比增减 | 商品猪销价（元/公斤） | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

[分Ta析bl师e_：Au王th莺or] 执业证书号：S0010520070003 电话：18502142884 邮箱：wangying@hazq.com [相Ta关bl报e_告CompanyReport] 2024-10-29 [Ta大ble北_Sto农ckN（ameRptType] 002385） 公司点评 出栏量有望达到 800 万头，完全成本降至 12.9 元 | [T投a资ble评_R级an：k]买入（维持） | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-05-06 | | [收Ta盘bl价e_（Ba元se）Data] | 4.12 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 5.26/3.70 | | 总股本（百万股） | 4,300 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3,524 | | 流通股比例（%） | 81.95 | | 总市值（亿元） | 177 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 145 | 2024 年，公司饲料外销量 540.55 万吨，同比下降 7.6%。其中，猪料 外销量 427.6 万吨，同比减少 8.2%；反刍料外销量 60.28 万吨，整体 保持平稳；水产料外 ...

今天分享的是：2025年中国猪产业链竞争力重构与产业发展战略报告 报告共计：184页 《中国猪产业链竞争力重构与产业发展战略报告》由山东省畜牧协会猪业分会发布，光华博思特实施。报告剖析了中国猪产业链各环节发展状况、面临的 挑战与机遇，并提出发展战略。 1. 发展环境：中国经济增长速度虽有下降，但人均GDP上了新台阶，仍具增长潜力。猪产业链面临产能过剩、需求乏力等问题，同时受到政策、经济、技 术、市场、环保和社会文化等多因素影响。政策上，产能调控与科技赋能双管齐下；经济上，行业处于微利时代，整合加速；技术革新推动智能化养殖和 生物技术应用；市场需求向高品质、多元化转变；环保压力促使绿色养殖转型；社会文化方面，本土猪种保护与乡村振兴相互促进。 2. 养殖环节：生猪养殖行业历经多个发展阶段，当前形成"金字塔"格局。面临盈利空间受限、竞争加剧、疫病防控压力等挑战，也有政策支持、技术创新 等机遇。未来规模化集约化将加深，技术智能化普及，需求向品质化转变。不同规模猪场应差异化发展，提升效益。 3. 产业增值：养猪成本主要集中在饲料、动保及养殖繁育环节，可通过优化成本结构、提升养殖技术等策略提升效益。企业可通过品质升级、技 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 09 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3352.00 | 0.28 | | 深证成指 | 10197.66 | 0.93 | | 创业板指 | 2029.45 | 1.65 | | 科创 50 | 1026.44 | -0.36 | | 北证 50 | 1380.93 | 0.98 | | 沪深 300 | 3852.90 | 0.56 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 644320 | 503398 | 11.79 | 1.22 | | 深证成指 | 216373 | 183378 | 19.91 | 2.10 | | 创业板指 | 57099 | 45137 | 26.54 | 3.69 | | 科创 50 | 35496 | 23129 | 56.35 | 4.27 | | 北证 50 ...

本报告导读： 公司生猪养殖业务持续精进，养殖成本不断下降。屠宰业务产能利用率显著提升，盈利能力改善。持续 推进高质量发展。 投资要点： 投资建议：维持"增持"评级，目标价50.8 元。预测 2025-2027 年公司 EPS 分别为2.54/4.81/6.77 元。公司 生猪出栏量持续增长，屠宰业务盈利能力改善。对比可比公司，我们认为牧原股份稳居行业龙头地位， 兼具成长与价值属性，给予公司2025 年20x 估值，对应目标价50.8 元。 公司发布25 年一季报：公司25Q1 实现营收360.6 亿元，同比+37.26%；归母净利润为44.9 亿元，同比扭 亏；经营活动产生的现金流量净额为75.1 亿元，同比+48.1%。 生猪养殖业务持续精进。公司25Q1 实现生猪出栏2265.8 万头（同比+41.5%），其中商品猪/仔猪/种猪 分别出栏1839.5/414.9/11.3 万头。 公司3 月生猪养殖完全成本已降至12.5 元/kg，持续优化。我们认为，随着公司持续发力健康管理、种 猪育种等，公司各项生产指标均仍将提升；同时公司通过推广优秀场线管理经验，有望不断改善相对落 后场线的成绩，从而进一步降低养殖成 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the announcement is the significant increase in pig sales and revenue for Tangrenshen Group in April 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, attributed to the "company + farmer" breeding model [2][3] - In April 2025, the company sold 435,200 pigs, a 37.98% increase year-on-year and a 7.48% increase month-on-month, with total sales revenue reaching 762.19 million yuan, up 57.77% year-on-year and 10.98% month-on-month [2] - Cumulatively, from January to April 2025, the company sold 1,697,600 pigs, a 34.47% increase year-on-year, with total sales revenue of 2,944.79 million yuan, reflecting a 62.15% year-on-year increase [2] Group 2 - The primary reason for the growth in pig sales is the increased output from the "company + farmer" breeding model [3] - The announcement specifies that the disclosed data only pertains to the company's pig farming business and does not include information on feed and meat products [4] - The company emphasizes that fluctuations in pig market prices represent a systemic risk that could significantly impact operational performance [4]

Core Insights - In April, several listed pig farming companies reported increases in both pig sales volume and revenue compared to previous months and the same month last year [1][2][3] - Analysts predict that pig prices will remain stable with slight fluctuations, while there is potential for increased sales volume in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first quarter, the national pig output reached 19,476 million heads, a slight increase of 20,000 heads year-on-year, reversing a 2.2% decline from the previous year [1] - The total pork production in the first quarter was 16.02 million tons, up by 190,000 tons or 1.2% year-on-year [1] - By the end of the first quarter, the national pig inventory stood at 41,731 million heads, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 881,000 heads or 2.2% [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Sales Data - Muyuan Foods sold 6.573 million pigs in April, with a revenue of 12.595 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 51.80% in sales volume and 53.42% in revenue [1] - Wens Foodstuff Group reported sales of 3.176 million pigs in April, generating revenue of 5.545 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.90% in sales volume [2] - Dongrui Food Group sold 170,500 pigs in April, achieving a revenue of 223 million yuan, reflecting a 24.56% increase in sales volume compared to the previous month [2] - Hunan Zhenghong Technology Development sold 11,200 pigs in April, with a revenue of 9.7964 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 109.24% in sales volume [2] - Aksu Xingjiang Muge Food, a subsidiary of Chen Kemin Foods, sold 63,900 pigs in April, with a revenue of 70.9048 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 33% in sales volume [3]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4,562.10 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 12.91% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 30.16 million CNY, up 104.57% year-on-year [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 238.85 million CNY, a significant increase of 42,142.92% [2] Cost Management - Feed costs account for 60%-70% of the breeding costs, and the company is implementing measures to reduce these costs [3] - The company aims to control the cost of live pigs to 13 CNY/kg, with approximately 10% of its production already achieving this target [3] - The average cost of live pigs in Q1 2025 was 14.15 CNY/kg [3] Research and Development - The company invests heavily in R&D, focusing on new feed products, improving existing products, and breeding [3] - Six subsidiaries have been recognized as national high-tech enterprises, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [3] Debt and Financial Management - The company has seen a significant reduction in interest-bearing debt and asset-liability ratio due to improved operational capabilities [4] - Financial expenses are expected to decrease significantly in 2025 as the company continues to enhance its operational efficiency [4] Market Outlook - The company targets a feed sales volume of 1.1 million tons and a live pig output of 130,000 heads in 2025 [6] - The revenue target for 2025 is set at 5.5 billion CNY, with feed sales expected to contribute approximately 65% of this revenue [8] Strategic Initiatives - The new chairman is driving strategic changes, focusing on long-term value, optimizing business layout, and enhancing core competitiveness [9] - The company plans to explore mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its supply chain and market position [10] Industry Context - The pig farming industry plays a crucial role in ensuring food security and stabilizing meat supply in China [9] - The impact of external factors, such as tariffs on feed imports, is being monitored, but current measures have mitigated significant risks [14]