炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：明察宏观 文 财信研究院宏观团队 李沫 胡文艳 伍超明 核心观点 一、价比量更重要：经济、政策以及资产配置新瞄点 其一，价格直接牵动企业盈利与居民收入，是激活"价格-盈利-收入-消费"内循环的关键枢纽，比GDP等 总量指标更能反映经济内生活力。其二，当前"量增价缩"格局不可持续，推动价格回升至合理区间已是 宏观政策必然选择，否则将侵蚀供需两端并阻碍新质生产力发展。其三，A股市场未来的走势，核心在 于建立"价格-盈利-信心"正向循环，价格回升既是启动盈利修复的关键，也是稳定市场预期的压舱石。 二、2026年价格走势分析 （一）趋势研判：2026年物价回升趋势明确。从宏观视角看，供需缺口趋于收敛、M1增速触底回升、 居民就业筑底改善以及产能周期有望上行等四大领先指标，共同为物价回升奠定基础。从价格构成看， 2026年CPI与PPI的"翘尾因素"将显著高于上年；同时"十五五"开局之年，扩大内需政策与供给侧"反内 卷"政策有望形成合力，共同支撑"新涨价因素"，推动价格实现温和回升。 （二）核心判断：上游主导PPI回升，预计2026年二季度 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a mixed performance on January 26, with the chemical sub-index declining. The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) closed down 0.46%, with a trading volume of 82.02 million yuan [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF has seen continuous capital inflow over the past 18 trading days, with a net inflow of 744 million yuan in the last 30 trading days, reaching a new high of 1.408 billion yuan as of January 23, 2026 [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF tracks the chemical sub-index, with over 93% of its holdings in three major industries: basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and power equipment, including leading companies and quality SMEs across various segments [1] Group 2 - A cold wave began affecting the U.S. on January 23, causing snowfall in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, with extreme weather expected to impact two-thirds of the country, potentially leading to widespread power outages [2] - The U.S. has a high capacity share of MDI/TDI, and the extreme weather may significantly affect supply, as U.S. MDI/TDI prices are notably higher, with relatively high operating rates [2] - The chemical industry is entering a turning point of supply-demand improvement and high-end transformation, with structural differentiation expected to continue in 2026, particularly in oil chemicals and polyester sectors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment is stable with high price-volume consistency, indicating a sideways trend in the market [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment indicator value as of January 23 is 2.35, a slight increase from 2.25 the previous week, indicating a neutral sentiment [3] - Key indicators such as the proportion of transactions in the Sci-Tech 50 and inter-industry trading volatility have shown signs of recovery, suggesting a marginal improvement in market risk appetite [6][15][17] - The price-volume consistency indicator remains high, reflecting a strong correlation between market attention and stock price movements, indicating active market sentiment [9] - The financing balance ratio has shown a slight upward trend, indicating that leveraged funds are maintaining a high level of sentiment, suggesting overall market risk appetite remains positive [22] Group 2: Industry Trends and Performance - The scoring model indicates that non-ferrous metals, communication, and defense industries are leading in trend scores, with non-ferrous metals achieving a short-term score of 100.00, the highest among industries [30][31] - The average industry congestion level is highest in utilities, computers, media, banks, and oil and petrochemicals, while the lowest is in environmental protection, textiles, and light manufacturing [33] - The correlation between industry congestion and weekly price changes is negligible, indicating that high congestion sectors like oil and petrochemicals are experiencing significant price increases, while sectors with low congestion are lagging [35] Group 3: Technical Indicators - The RSI indicator has shown a decline, suggesting a decrease in short-term upward momentum and an increase in selling pressure, indicating a potential weakening of market sentiment [25][37] - The model indicates that small-cap and growth styles are currently favored, although there are signs of weakening in the short-term signals for these styles [38]

（1）ETF账户 今日亏损4.3万（资产260万）； （2）基金账户 今日预估盈利0.8万（资产550万）； 全靠资源对冲亏损了。 两个账户合计亏损3.5万，亏损比例0.44%； （一）账户盈亏 先跟新朋友同步下我的账户情况： 我一共有 3 个【主要投资账户】，分别是ETF 账户、某基金账户，以及组合账户。 因为组合账户的净值更新会慢一些，所以工作日我只统计ETF账户和某基金账户的收益；等到每周六发周报的时候，再把三个账户的收益情况一起汇总。 随着全球主要经济体进入降息周期，流动性整体趋松。更关键的是，美元信用持续弱化，各国央行减持美债并囤积黄金，推动金价飙升；随后投资者将目 光转向白银，投机资金快速涌入，银价跟涨。同时，我国作为白银出口大国，开始实施出口配额制，进一步促进白银价格上涨。 （2）有色金属上行主因：需求激增、供给受限 当下正值以人工智能、机器人、新能源、商业航天为代表的科技革命期： 需求端快速扩张的同时，地缘政治因素使铜、稀土等关键矿产资源的安全与自主可控上升到国家战略高度，部分国家收紧出口，导致供给受限。需求激增 叠加供给受限，有色金属价格全面上扬。 毋庸讳言，黄金、白银与有色金属已累积较大涨 ...

| 该指数由中证800指数样本股 | 今日该指数涨跌 | 该指数市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 0. 8% | 1. 6倍 | | 90% | | | | 化工、石油石化行业占比超 | | | | 中的石化产业股票组成,基础 | | | 1月26日，石油石化股集体走强，中国海油涨超6%，中国石油5%，中国石化、云天化涨超3%。截至收盘，中证石化产业指数上涨0.8%、实现六连涨， 中证稀土产业指数上涨0.6%。 市场分析认为，"十五五"碳排放双控力度增强，对于化工行业而言，一方面未来部分高能耗或高碳排放子行业的供给侧增量存量均有政策约束；另一方 面，随着碳排放权交易市场的扩围，碳配额制度有望重塑部分行业成本曲线，加速落后产能出清，长期利好行业能效领跑龙头。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请 读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Market Liquidity Overview - R007 increased from 1.5137% to 1.5360%, a rise of 2.23 basis points; DR007 rose from 1.4430% to 1.4935%, an increase of 5.05 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 narrowed by 2.82 basis points [9] - The net outflow of funds this week was 250.36 billion yuan, with net inflow decreasing by 167.59 billion yuan compared to last week. Fund supply was -184.25 billion yuan, while fund demand was 66.12 billion yuan [13] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index saw gains, with the building materials sector leading at a weekly increase of 9.18%. Other sectors like petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel also experienced slight increases. The banking and telecommunications sectors led the declines, with decreases of 2.69% and 1.68% respectively [18] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most style indices increased, with cyclical and growth styles leading at 4.64% and 1.81% respectively. The financial style was the only one to decline, down by 1.50%. Growth style accounted for 58.15% of the average daily trading volume, making it the most active sector [3]

1月26日，石油石化股集体走强，中国海油涨超6%，中国石油5%，中国石化、云天化涨超3%。截至收盘，中证石化产业指数上涨0.8%、实现六连涨，中证 稀土产业指数上涨0.6%。 | 今日该指数涨跌 | 该指数市净率 | i | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 发 | | 0. 8% | 1.6倍 | | 市场分析认为，"十五五"碳排放双控力度增强，对于化工行业而言，一方面未来部分高能耗或高碳排放子行业的供给侧增量存量均有政策约束；另一方面， 随着碳排放权交易市场的扩围，碳配额制度有望重塑部分行业成本曲线，加速落后产能出清，长期利好行业能效领跑龙头。 ...

截至收盘，上证指数收报4132.61点，下跌0.09%；深证成指收报14316.64点，下跌0.85%；创业板指收报3319.15点，下跌0.91%。两 市合计成交32482.03亿元，较上一交易日增加1629.79亿元。 沪深300今日主力资金净流出95.23亿元，创业板净流出281.49亿元。 | | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪深300 | 创业板 | 科创板 | | 2026-1-26 | -95. 23 | -281. 49 | 14. 49 | | 2026-1-23 | -10. 05 | 15. 15 | -31.71 | | 2026-1-22 | 17.99 | -4. 70 | -3. 20 | | 2026-1-21 | 154. 35 | -61. 61 | -17.06 | | 2026-1-20 | -199.71 | -388. 98 | 1.17 | | | | 尾盘资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | 2026-1-26 | 15. 52 | -6. 76 | 4. 12 | ...

1月26日，A股市场整体下跌。 2.创业板主力资金净流出超280亿元 沪深300今日主力资金净流出95.23亿元，创业板净流出281.49亿元。 | | | 各板块最近五个交易目主力资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪深300 | 创业板 | 科创板 | | 2026-1-26 | -95. 23 | -281. 49 | 14. 49 | | 2026-1-23 | -10. 05 | 15. 15 | -31. 71 | | 2026-1-22 | 17.99 | -4. 70 | -3. 20 | | 2026-1-21 | 154. 35 | -61. 61 | -17.06 | | 2026-1-20 | -199.71 | -388. 98 | 1.17 | | | | 尾盘资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | 2026-1-26 | 15. 52 | -6. 76 | 4. 12 | | 2026-1-23 | 30. 66 | 12. 61 | 1.87 | | 2026-1-22 | 27. 26 | 3. 30 | 0. 84 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot gold has first surpassed $5000 per ounce [4] - Silver and copper prices are expected to remain strong through 2026 due to global energy transition and AI revolution, with Silver as a key beneficiary [5][6] - Silver Company (601212) experienced a limit-up on January 26, 2023, closing at 11.41, reflecting a 2.57% increase [6] Group 2: Photovoltaics - Elon Musk announced plans to build 100GW of solar capacity over the next three years for data centers and space AI satellites [7] - JunDa Co. is positioned as the largest third-party supplier of N-type TOPCon solar cells, with a focus on overseas capacity and space photovoltaic applications [7][8] - JunDa Co. saw a price increase of up to 10.97% on January 22, 2023 [8] Group 3: Computing Power - Tencent's chairman Ma Huateng announced a cash activity of 1 billion yuan to promote AI applications, aiming to replicate the success of WeChat red envelopes [9] - QingCloud Technology is focusing on AI computing cloud services and has seen a price increase of 15.25% [10] - The outlook for computing power in 2026 suggests significant breakthroughs across various levels, with Dawei Technology experiencing a limit-up [17][18] Group 4: Natural Gas and Oil - U.S. natural gas prices surged past $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022 due to winter storms [19] - International oil prices rose nearly 3%, benefiting companies like Intercontinental Oil and Gas, which saw a limit-up on January 26, 2023 [19][20]