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国内外基本面已经开始松动 液化石油气相对偏弱
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-02-02 06:02
东吴期货:LPG相对偏弱 海外丙烷方面中东发运依然偏低,美国出口增加情况下重新回到去库状态,国内需求一般,但价格在原 油天然气都偏强下整体上涨。内盘相对偏弱,国内基本面来看,供应端依然偏紧,炼厂商品量处于低 位,港口到港量不高,港库维持去化。需求存边际走弱,PDH装置持续亏损下部分进入检修状态,对市 场形成潜在利空。主力合约移仓03后仓单注销压力逐渐增加。 新湖期货:LPG需留意盘面向交割逻辑切换 2月2日盘中,液化石油气期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫,最低下探至4108.00元。截止发稿,液化石 油气主力合约报4122.00元,跌幅5.31%。 液化石油气期货主力跌超5%,对于后市行情如何,相关机构该如何评价? 机构 核心观点 东吴期货 LPG相对偏弱 新湖期货 LPG需留意盘面向交割逻辑切换 因恶劣天气,美国180万桶/天的LPG出口能力受到影响,但是当地没有发生停电情况,该影响是短暂 的,天气好转后,LPG出口设备已恢复运作。3月份远东市场美国货到船增加,买家已基本完成采购, 供需紧张的局面得到缓解。此外印度进口了美国丁烷货,中东地区基本面也有所转弱。国内PDH开工率 继续下滑,炼厂库存攀升,未来有去库压 ...
聚酯产业链:成本与需求博弈行情震荡为主:聚酯产业链期货期权2月报告-20260202
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is in a state of cost - demand game, and the market is mainly in a volatile state. The prices of various products in the polyester industry chain are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand relationship, and market sentiment, and are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [5][56][105]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In January 2026, as the Spring Festival approached, the downstream demand decreased due to the weakening of the start - up rate of the middle and lower reaches. However, the rising crude oil price provided cost support. Coupled with the low valuation of polyester chain products and the improvement of the medium - and long - term supply - demand structure, the market sentiment was bullish, pushing the price to break through the upper limit [5]. 3.2 Crude Oil - In January 2026, due to geopolitical risks such as the arrest of the Venezuelan president by the United States, the turmoil in Iran, and the increase of troops in the Middle East by the United States, the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil increased, and the price of Brent crude oil rose from $60 per barrel to around $70 per barrel [9]. - OPEC + continued to increase crude oil production, and the commercial and strategic reserve crude oil inventories in the United States increased year - on - year. The gasoline cracking spread rebounded from a low level, and the operating rates of refineries in the United States and domestic local refineries increased year - on - year [11][14]. - Overall, the supply and demand of crude oil are temporarily stable, but with the support of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the oil price is expected to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend [16]. 3.3 PX - In January 2026, the PX device changed little, and the operation was at a high level of about 90%. The downstream PTA start - up rate first increased and then decreased, with the center of gravity rising month - on - month. Under the support of cost and bullish market sentiment, the price rose rapidly after a narrow correction [19]. - The naphtha was in the off - season, and the cracking spread weakened. In February 2026, the supply - demand side of naphtha is expected to remain weak, and the absolute price will fluctuate with the cost, with the cracking spread expected to oscillate in the range of $60 - 90 per ton [24]. - There is no new production capacity plan for PX in the first half of 2026. In January 2026, the overall load of PX was around 90%, and the PX - Nap spread oscillated strongly in the range of $330 - 370 per ton. In February, it is expected to maintain a high - level operation of over 90%, and the PX - Nap spread will oscillate at a high level of $300 - 400 per ton [25][31]. - The demand for PX is expected to increase month - on - month in February 2026. The import volume is expected to decline month - on - month, and the inventory is expected to remain stable [34][37][39]. - From a technical perspective, if the PX price cannot effectively break below the support range of 7200 - 7300 yuan/ton, it still has an upward tendency. In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to short the PX03 - 05 spread at high levels, with a target price range of - 200 to - 50 yuan/ton [50][54]. 3.4 PTA - In January 2026, the PTA price first adjusted downward and then rose. In the first and middle of the month, the price oscillated and adjusted downward due to the decline of terminal start - up rate and the release of downstream polyester maintenance plans. In the second half of the month, it rose strongly due to the support of cost and market sentiment [59]. - In 2025, the cumulative production of PTA was about 7368 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.93%. In January 2026, the start - up rate of PTA first increased and then decreased, and it is expected to rise to around 80% in February [64]. - There is no new production capacity for PTA in 2026. In January, the processing fee increased from 300 yuan/ton to around 450 yuan/ton, and it is expected to run strongly in the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton in February [65][70]. - In 2025, the cumulative export of PTA was 381.71 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.60%. It is expected to gradually recover in February [75]. - The polyester production capacity will continue to increase in 2026. In January 2026, the polyester start - up rate declined seasonally, and it is expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise in February [80][83]. - In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to short the PTA05 - 09 spread at high levels, with a target range of - 100 to - 50 yuan/ton. There is no good arbitrage opportunity for the basis for now [104]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol - In January 2026, although the supply of ethylene glycol increased and the demand decreased, and the port continued to accumulate inventory, the price rebounded from a low level due to bullish market sentiment, the cold wave in the United States, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East [108]. - In January 2026, the comprehensive start - up rate of ethylene glycol oscillated around 74%, at a high level in the same period of history. It is expected to maintain a high - level operation of over 70% in February [112]. - The production capacity of ethylene glycol will further expand in 2026, but there is no new production capacity in the first half of the year [117]. - In 2025, the cumulative import volume of ethylene glycol was 772.05 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.80%. It is expected that the import volume will decrease month - on - month in February [122]. - In January 2026, the inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports in East China continued to accumulate, and it is expected to continue to accumulate in February [125]. - The profit of downstream polyester was under pressure and weakened. The polyester start - up rate will decline seasonally in February, leading to a decrease in the demand for ethylene glycol [126][136]. - From a technical perspective, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate mainly in the range of 3600 - 4000 yuan/ton. In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to long the MEG05 - 09 spread, with a target range of - 50 to 0 yuan/ton [146][149]. 3.6 Polyester Staple Fiber - In January 2026, the start - up of polyester staple fiber was at a high level. Due to the seasonal weakening of demand and the rising cost, the processing fee decreased, and the absolute price increased with the cost [153]. - The production capacity of polyester staple fiber will expand in 2026, with an expected increase of 100 tons. In 2025, the output was 809.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62% [161]. - In January 2026, the start - up rate of polyester staple fiber first remained high and then declined. The processing fee is expected to maintain a relatively low level of around 1000 yuan/ton in February [164]. - In January 2026, the number of terminal weaving orders decreased seasonally. It is expected to pick up seasonally after the Spring Festival [167]. - In 2025, the domestic retail sales of clothing, shoes, and hats increased year - on - year, while the export of clothing was weak, and the export of textile raw materials continued to grow [170]. - In January 2026, the start - up rates of weaving and texturing machines decreased seasonally. It is expected to reach the bottom during the Spring Festival and recover at the end of the month [173][174]. - The start - up of yarn and grey fabric was relatively stable, but the inventory was at a high level. The processing fee of pure polyester yarn remained at a low level, and the raw material inventory increased slightly [177][181]. - In 2025, the export of polyester staple fiber increased year - on - year. It is expected to decrease month - on - month in February [191]. - In January 2026, the inventory of polyester staple fiber factories was neutral and low. It is expected to rise temporarily in February [194]. - From a technical perspective, the short - fiber futures price is expected to oscillate near the resistance level of 6800 yuan/ton in the short term. There is no good arbitrage opportunity for now [203][208]. 3.7 Polyester Bottle Chips - In January 2026, the start - up rate of polyester bottle chips decreased to around 70%, the processing fee recovered to over 500 yuan/ton, and the absolute price increased with the cost [213]. - The processing fee of bottle chips increased from 450 yuan/ton to around 580 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain above 500 yuan/ton in February [218]. - In 2026, there is no new production capacity for bottle chips. In January, the production capacity decreased by 21 tons month - on - month, and the output is expected to decrease month - on - month in February [223]. - In 2025, the export of bottle chips increased year - on - year. It is expected to decrease month - on - month in February [228]. - The domestic demand for bottle chips is in the off - season. It is expected that the start - up rate of downstream industries will decline to the lowest level of the year in February [231]. - The inventory of bottle chips is expected to remain at a low level. In January 2026, the inventory decreased from 16 days to 10 days [236]. - From a technical perspective, the price of bottle chips is expected to break through the resistance of 6400 yuan/ton after adjustment. In terms of arbitrage, the PR03 - 05 spread is expected to fall into a Contango structure, and there is no arbitrage opportunity for the basis for now [244][249].
【图】2025年8月海南省石脑油产量统计分析
Chan Ye Diao Yan Wang· 2026-02-02 05:15
图表:海南省石脑油产量分月(累计值)统计 2025年8月石脑油产量分析: 单独看2025年8月份,海南省规模以上工业企业石脑油产量达到了32.2万吨,与2024年同期的数据相 比,8月份的产量增长了59.9%,增速较2024年同期高85.9个百分点,增速较同期全国高62.1个百分点, 约占同期全国规模以上企业石脑油产量661.5万吨的比重为4.9%。 摘要:【图】2025年8月海南省石脑油产量统计分析 2025年1-8月石脑油产量分析: 据国家统计局数据,在2025年的前8个月,海南省规模以上工业企业石脑油产量累计达到了217.8万吨, 与2024年同期的数据相比,增长了68.7%,增速较2024年同期高22.6个百分点,继续保持快速增长,增 速较同期全国高69.2个百分点,约占同期全国规模以上企业石脑油产量5283.7万吨的比重为4.1%。 图表:海南省石脑油产量分月(当月值)统计 注:主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位,即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 石油化工行业最新动态 石油行业现状与发展趋势 化工市场现状及前景分析 日化市场调研与发展前景润滑油发展现状及前景预测汽油市 ...
中辉能化观点-20260202
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 04:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry - wide investment rating. However, for individual varieties, ratings such as "cautious short", "bullish rebound", "sideways with a bullish bias", etc. are given [1][2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Short - term, the price is volatile and bullish due to high geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, but there is still downward pressure in the long - term as the supply - surplus pattern remains and the demand off - season arrives [1][7] - **LPG**: Cost - side factors drive a rebound, with geopolitical impacts on oil prices and Saudi's CP contract price increase [1] - **L**: The uptrend continues as the inventory of the upstream is at a relatively low level, but attention should be paid to geopolitical and cold wave changes [14][17] - **PP**: The uptrend continues before the Spring Festival, with high - level maintenance reducing upstream inventory, but the fundamental supply - demand is weak [18][21] - **PVC**: It is sideways with a bullish bias in the short - term due to strong export orders, but there is a weakening expectation in the long - term [22][25] - **PTA**: The fundamental expectation is positive, and it is recommended to buy on dips [26][28] - **MEG**: Supply - demand is loose, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [29][30] - **Methanol**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [32][34] - **Urea**: It rebounds in the short - term with cost support and strong supply - demand, but be cautious about chasing up as the downstream demand enters the off - season [37][38] - **LNG**: The impact of the cold wave is weakening, and the upside of gas prices is limited [41][43] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of the futures is high, and there may be a short - term correction [45][48] - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is in a range - bound oscillation [50][53] - **Soda Ash**: The operation is bearish and sideways with a decline in the operating rate [54][57] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous Friday, international oil prices fluctuated within a range. WTI decreased by 0.32%, Brent decreased by 0.39%, and domestic SC increased by 3.40% [6] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term, geopolitical factors in the Middle East lead to an increase in geopolitical premium; in the long - term, the supply is in surplus during the off - season, and global crude oil inventories are accumulating rapidly [7] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintained its production policy unchanged in the February 1st meeting and continued to suspend production increases in March. The geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East has increased. The impact of the cold wave in the US is decreasing, and US crude oil production is gradually rising. India's diesel exports to West Africa reached a record high in December, and its crude oil imports in December increased by 1.6% month - on - month [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, it is expected to rebound. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The range for SC is [460 - 480] [9] LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 30th, the PG main contract closed at 4353 yuan/ton, a 0.97% increase. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4480 (+60) yuan/ton, 4428 (+15) yuan/ton, and 4840 (-10) yuan/ton respectively [11] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly determined by the cost - side oil price. In the short - term, the oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, but is under pressure in the long - term. The supply is stable, and the downstream chemical demand is weak with inventory accumulation [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price has room for further compression as the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand. In the short - term, the cost - side oil price is uncertain. The range for PG is [4300 - 4400] [13] L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract price decreased by 0.5%. The L05 basis was - 174 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 55 yuan/ton [15][16] - **Basic Logic**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has dropped to a low level in the same period. The uptrend continues, but attention should be paid to geopolitical and cold wave changes. The production is expected to increase this week, and the basis has dropped to a low level in the same period [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for L is [7000 - 7200] [17] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract price decreased by 0.7%. The PP05 basis was - 108 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 33 yuan/ton [19][20] - **Basic Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the market is mainly trading on expectations. High - level maintenance has significantly reduced upstream inventory, and the uptrend continues. The current supply - demand is weak, and the parking ratio is 21%, reducing supply pressure [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for PP is [6800 - 7000] [21] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price increased by 3.4%. The V05 basis was - 283 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 122 yuan/ton [23][24] - **Basic Logic**: Export orders are strong, and enterprise inventory has dropped to a low level in the same period. In the short - term, it is sideways with a bullish bias. The spot price of liquid caustic soda has been falling, and the cost support of marginal devices has improved. However, there is a weakening expectation in the long - term [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for PVC is [5000 - 5200] [25] PTA - **Market Performance**: As of January 30th, TA05 closed at 5270, at the 90.5% quantile level in the past three months. The basis was 20 (+102) yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was - 12 (+6) yuan/ton [28] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA device is under planned maintenance with a relatively high intensity. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is seasonal inventory accumulation in January and February. However, the fundamental expectation is positive [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy the 05 contract on dips. The range for TA05 is [5220 - 5420] [28] MEG - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract price decreased by 37 yuan/ton. The basis was - 99 (+21) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 105 (-8) yuan/ton [29] - **Basic Logic**: The low - valuation has been repaired. Domestic production capacity utilization has increased, and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and port inventory is accumulating [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. The range for EG05 is [3860 - 3980] [31] Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol main contract is at a high valuation in the past three months. The comprehensive profit is - 235 yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 60 (+20) [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic methanol device operating rates are high, while overseas devices have significantly reduced their loads. Demand has weakened significantly. Although the fundamentals are relatively loose, geopolitical conflicts and cold weather in North America have led to a short - term increase in overseas natural gas costs, which is bullish [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions. The range for MA05 is [2280 - 2350] [36] Urea - **Market Performance**: The urea main contract closed at 1788 (+12) yuan/ton, at the 73.3% quantile level in the past year. The Shandong small - particle basis was - 28 (-2) yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 25 yuan/ton [39] - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The supply is under pressure as the production of previously maintained devices has resumed. Demand is strong in the short - term, but the downstream demand is entering the off - season [38][39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up. The range for UR05 is [1780 - 1810] [40] LNG - **Market Performance**: On January 29th, the NG main contract closed at 3.878 US dollars/million British thermal units, a 4.16% increase [42] - **Basic Logic**: The impact of the cold wave in the US on gas prices has weakened, and the upside of gas prices is limited. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is in the peak season [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The range for NG is [3.556 - 4.050] [44] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On January 30th, the BU main contract closed at 3424 yuan/ton, a 1.55% decrease. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China increased [47] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of asphalt raw materials has increased, and the oil price has rebounded due to geopolitical factors, but the basis is weak, and there is a risk of a short - term correction [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to risks due to geopolitical uncertainties. The range for BU is [3400 - 3500] [49] Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract price decreased by 2.9%. The FG05 basis was - 36 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 112 yuan/ton [51][52] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory of enterprises has slightly decreased at a high level. The futures price is oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to the reduction in supply [53] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up. The range for FG is [1050 - 1100] [53] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract price decreased by 1.6%. The SA05 basis was - 34 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 62 yuan/ton [55][56] - **Basic Logic**: Some devices are planned for maintenance, and the operating rate has decreased. The demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up. The range for SA is [1200 - 1250] [57]
伊朗推动地缘溢价进一步上升 | 投研报告
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-02 03:39
来源:中国能源网 国金证券近日发布石油化工行业研究:基本面依然供过于求,前期支撑原油价格的利好寒潮以及哈萨克 斯坦产量减少的供应下降已经开始修复。同时俄乌达成停火一周协议,泽连斯基确认停止袭击俄罗斯能 源设施,关注俄乌近一步进展。地缘问题仍是市场交易核心,伊朗问题是主要焦点。 以下为研究报告摘要: 地缘政治扰动超预期;海外经济出现衰退;行业及国际政策环境变化。(国金证券 孙羲昱,陈浩越) 炼油:下周春运陆续开启,跨城出行增加,汽油需求增加,户外基建陆续停工,用油单位开工率进一步 下滑,柴油需求持续处于低位,"汽强柴弱"格局。本周国内主营炼厂平均开工负荷为80.02%,较上周上 涨1.24个百分点。山东地炼常减压装置平均开工负荷为53.6%,较上周持平。山东地炼汽油库存57.55万 吨,环比下跌3.75%;山东地炼柴油库存86.56万吨,环比下跌4.15%。本周期山东地炼平均炼油毛利为 165.98元/吨,较上周期下跌88.39元/吨。本周期主营炼厂平均炼油毛利为659.83元/吨,较上周期下跌 101.65元/吨。零批价差方面,周内汽油零批价差1314元/吨,前值1224元/吨,周内上涨90元/吨,涨幅 7. ...
上海石化股价跌5.21%,国泰基金旗下1只基金位居十大流通股东,持有1294.74万股浮亏损失220.11万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-02 03:34
2月2日,上海石化跌5.21%,截至发稿,报3.09元/股,成交2.24亿元,换手率0.98%,总市值325.77亿 元。 资料显示,中国石化上海石油化工股份有限公司位于上海市金山区金一路48号,成立日期1993年6月21 日,上市日期1993年11月8日,公司主营业务涉及原油加工、整系列的油品、化工产品、基本有机化学 产品、合成纤维及单体、塑料及制品、聚酯纤维、针织纺织原料及制品、工业及燃料的生产和经营、其 他副产品的生产和经营和铂族金属的生产与加工。主营业务收入构成为:炼油产品67.95%,化工产品 21.60%,石油化工产品贸易9.77%,其他(补充)0.53%,其他0.15%。 国泰富时中国A股自由现金流聚焦ETF(159399)成立日期2025年2月19日,最新规模48.72亿。今年以 来收益4.4%,同类排名3044/5579;成立以来收益22.74%。 国泰富时中国A股自由现金流聚焦ETF(159399)基金经理为麻绎文。 截至发稿,麻绎文累计任职时间2年180天,现任基金资产总规模136.57亿元,任职期间最佳基金回报 135.9%, 任职期间最差基金回报-10.96%。 声明:市场有风险,投 ...
伊朗推动地缘溢价进一步上升
国金证券近日发布石油化工行业研究:基本面依然供过于求,前期支撑原油价格的利好寒潮以及哈萨克 斯坦产量减少的供应下降已经开始修复。同时俄乌达成停火一周协议,泽连斯基确认停止袭击俄罗斯能 源设施,关注俄乌近一步进展。地缘问题仍是市场交易核心,伊朗问题是主要焦点。 以下为研究报告摘要: 原油:本周原油快速上行,原油继续计价美伊开战风险,市场担忧伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡。我们预计当 前地缘风险溢价计价伊朗问题8-10美元/桶。基本面依然供过于求,前期支撑原油价格的利好寒潮以及 哈萨克斯坦产量减少的供应下降已经开始修复。同时俄乌达成停火一周协议,泽连斯基确认停止袭击俄 罗斯能源设施,关注俄乌近一步进展。地缘问题仍是市场交易核心,伊朗问题是主要焦点。我们预计伊 朗问题落地前原油价格短期或继续保持强势。如果伊朗烈度低于预期或者伊朗未发生实际冲突,交易中 心重回供需则预计价格将回落。截止1月29日,WTI现货收于65.42美元,环比+6.06美元;BRENT现货 收于72.57美元,环比+6.6美元。EIA1月23日当周商业原油库存环比-229.5万桶,前值+360.2万桶。其中 库欣原油环比-27.8万桶,前值+147.8万桶 ...
资金盘中抢筹石化ETF(159731),冲击“19连吸金”,近18日合计净流入超13亿,居同标的第一
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-02 02:31
消息面上: ①伊朗地缘局势紧张程度加剧,原油的地缘政治风险溢价上升,油价上涨。"欧佩克+"成员国宣布继续 暂停增产,3月保持原油产量不再提高。 今日石化板块回调,鲁西化工、华峰化学分别跌8.9%和6.8%,带动石化ETF下跌2.6%,但资金选择继 续抢筹,盘中获净申购3200万份,冲击"19连吸金"。 事实上,近期资金持续流入石化ETF(159731),从1月7日起已经连续18个交易日获资金净申购,合计净 流入13.51亿元,居同标的产品第一。 相关产品: 石化ETF(159731)跟踪石化产业指数,基础化工+石油石化双轮驱动,占比超91%,细分领域覆盖炼油化 工 (25.4%)、聚氨酯 (10.6%)、钾肥 (8.6%)、磷肥及磷化工(7.1%) 等关键细分领域,直接受益于反内卷显 效下,石化行业出清带来的涨价预期,权重股包括万华化学(全球 MDI龙头)、中国石油(国内油气 龙头)、中国石化(国内炼化龙头)、盐湖股份(国内钾肥龙头)等。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并 ...
LPG:短期地缘扰动偏强,基本面驱动向下,丙烯:上行驱动转弱,关注成本端扰动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 02:05
LPG:短期地缘扰动偏强,基本面驱动向下 丙烯:上行驱动转弱,关注成本端扰动 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑(联系人) 期货从业资格号:F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 2026 年 2 月 2 日 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2603 | 4,290 | -1.33% | 4,354 | 1.49% | | 2603 | 129,632 | 46,252 | 86,346 | -7,800 | | | PG | 2604 | 4,584 | -1.10% | 4,646 | 1.35% | PG | 2604 | 39,541 | 18,402 | 64,086 | -2,165 | | 期货市场 ...
燃料油早报-20260202
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 01:17
| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2026/01/26 | 344.81 | 393.32 | -10.27 | 655.75 | -262.43 | 24.28 | 48.51 | | 2026/01/27 | 348.36 | 398.84 | -11.04 | 658.65 | -259.81 | 22.80 | 50.48 | | 2026/01/28 | 357.51 | 403.54 | -10.69 | 673.15 | -269.61 | 23.85 | 46.03 ...