传媒 2025 年 11 月 16 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 传媒 沪深300 相关研究报告 头部游戏出海延续亮眼表现，抽成政策助小程序游戏迎新机，坚定布局游戏 （1）出海：根据 AppMagic，10 月点点互动旗下《Whiteout Survival》和《Kingshot》 稳居中国手游出海收入榜前二，AppMagic 估算两款产品分成后收入合计超 1.3 亿美元，点点互动旗下另一款《Tasty Travels》排名第 19，较上月继续提升，另 外世纪华通股票已于 11 月 12 日撤销其他风险警示，或改善交易流动性，且后续 有望入选指数，迎来增量被动配置资金。（2）小程序游戏：11 月 14 日，微信 宣布将为开发者提供接入苹果"小程序合作伙伴计划"服务，苹果对参与计划的 微信小程序游戏流水仅抽成 15%（而 App 游戏抽成为 30%），或推动更多 iOS 端 App 游戏转向小程序游戏以降低流水分成，提升利润率，2024 年及 2025H1 中国小程序游戏市场规模达 398/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown increased volatility since November, with notable style switching between traditional value sectors and previously strong sectors like metals, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Market Outlook - The overall risk for the year-end market is considered controllable, but there is potential for structural changes and a rebalancing expectation [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, with technology innovation sectors expected to be key growth drivers [1] Investment Opportunities - Three major investment directions are highlighted: 1. Infrastructure opportunities represented by computing power, including sectors like computing chips, optical communication, PCB, liquid cooling, and storage [1] 2. AI application end, where advancements in AI infrastructure and capabilities are expected to create new ecosystems and investment opportunities, particularly in humanoid robots, unmanned vehicles, and drones [1] 3. Strategic emerging industries and future industries emphasized in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]

Group 1 - The theme of the 2026 Capital Market Annual Conference held by CITIC Securities is "Striving for a New Journey," focusing on the global macro landscape and market investment strategies [1] - CITIC Securities General Manager Zou Yingguang highlighted the increasing international discourse power of China and the rising position of Chinese enterprises in the global value chain, indicating a positive accumulation of momentum in the capital market [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period will see new characteristics in the global context, technological trends, and institutional environment affecting China's capital market [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities Chief A-share Strategy Analyst Qiu Xiang stated that A-share companies are transitioning from local enterprises to global multinational corporations, marking a shift from emerging to mature market status [2] - Qiu Xiang noted that the overall volatility of the A-share market is expected to enter a long-term downward trend due to various mechanisms, including increased participation of retail investors seeking stable returns [2] - The influence of social media and diverse public opinion is expected to mitigate the effects of collective investor behavior, reducing the likelihood of one-sided market movements [2] Group 3 - Three key themes for industry allocation in 2026 include: upgrading traditional manufacturing and resource industries to enhance profit margins, the globalization of Chinese enterprises opening new profit growth opportunities, and a new round of systematic trends in the technology sector driven by application changes [3] - CITIC Securities Chief Economist Ming Ming anticipates a "front low, back high" growth pattern for China's economy in 2026, with moderate fiscal expansion and improved local government finances [3] Group 4 - The economic structure in 2026 is expected to be primarily production-driven, with external and internal demand becoming more balanced [4] - Fiscal policy is projected to moderately expand, with an increase in special bond quotas for project construction, while monetary policy may see further easing with potential rate cuts [4] - The focus of industrial policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period will shift towards balancing supply and demand, enhancing service consumption and investment in emerging industries to boost domestic demand's contribution to GDP [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6][34]. Core Insights - The media industry saw a slight increase of 0.16% in the week from November 1 to November 7, 2025, ranking 18th among various industries. Notable performers included China Film, Jishi Media, and Chinese Media, with Baidu Group-SW and NetEase-S showing strong weekly gains in the Hang Seng Technology Index [10][16]. - The report emphasizes the potential in AI applications and cultural exports, particularly focusing on sub-sectors such as gaming, IP, short dramas, and publishing [4][34]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media industry experienced a weekly increase of 0.16%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.19%. The gaming sector saw a decline of 0.29%, while the film and television sector increased by 2.49% [10][12]. Key Industry Data - **AI Applications**: In October, the top five AI applications globally were ChatGPT, Doubao, Quark, Baidu Cloud, and Gemini. Doubao led domestic applications with a monthly active user (MAU) count of 159.41 million, reflecting a 6.28% month-over-month growth [20][21]. - **Gaming**: The iOS gaming sales chart for November 6, 2025, was topped by "Honkai: Star Rail," followed by "Honor of Kings" and "Delta Force." The report also noted the upcoming release of seven new games between November 13 and November 15 [23][25]. - **Film**: The total box office for the week was 207 million yuan, with "Improv Murder" leading at 42.11 million yuan, accounting for 20.3% of the weekly total. Upcoming films include "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle Chapter" and "Now You See Me 3" [27][28][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on themes such as AI applications and cultural exports, with specific attention to companies like Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Perfect World among others [4][34].

Core Viewpoint - Dipu Technology (01384) has become a focal point in the Hong Kong stock market, with its stock price surging by 9.84% to close at HKD 77, following a previous increase of over 16% during the trading session, reflecting strong investor interest in enterprise-level AI applications [1] Company Summary - Dipu Technology debuted on the Hong Kong stock market as the "first stock of enterprise-level large model AI applications," with its stock price soaring over 111% on the first day and achieving an oversubscription rate of 7569.83 times during the public offering, indicating high investor confidence in the enterprise AI sector [1] - The company employs a "FastData + FastAGI" dual-engine strategy, focusing on standardizing multi-modal data governance through FastData solutions and promoting the application of AI agents across various industries via its self-developed large model platform, FastAGI [1] - In the first half of 2025, the FastAGI business line generated revenue of CNY 73.07 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 191.04% and accounting for 55.3% of total revenue, surpassing the FastData solutions for the first time, demonstrating the company's successful transition from a data service provider to an AI application provider [1] - With the ongoing commercialization of large model applications, Dipu Technology is positioned to maintain its leading edge in the enterprise AI market, potentially creating long-term value for investors [1]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.43% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the 113th consecutive trading day, with an increase of over 140 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Economic Indicators - The Ministry of Finance released a report indicating a more proactive fiscal policy to stimulate consumption, including subsidies for personal consumption loans and support for sectors like elderly care and childcare [1] - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [1] Institutional Insights - According to Industrial Securities, the probability of systemic risk from tightening overseas liquidity is low, and A-shares may remain resilient supported by stable economic and policy expectations [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical sectors such as steel, chemicals, construction materials, and new consumption, as well as strong industry trends in AI computing power and low-valuation technology growth areas [2] Market Trends - The A-share market continued to experience high volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around the 4000-point mark, indicating pressure above and support below [3] - Daily trading volume averaged around 2 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline from October's peak, while margin trading balances increased to 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating high participation from leveraged funds [3] - The report suggests a potential shift from high-valuation technology stocks to undervalued sectors as fund managers seek to lock in profits [3] Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, it is advised to avoid chasing high-priced stocks and focus on sectors with lower crowding and better profit-valuation matching, such as photovoltaics, electricity, and chemicals [3] - Long-term investment opportunities are highlighted in sectors with confirmed growth potential, including AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war around the 4000-point mark, with a critical trading volume threshold of 2.5 trillion yuan that needs to be surpassed for a sustained upward movement [1][3]. Market Conditions - The A-share market has been in a "vacuum period" with a lack of strong catalysts, as the third-quarter reports have just been released and the annual reports are still pending [3]. - There has been a significant net outflow of 236.9 billion yuan from the A-share market, indicating a retreat of existing funds despite a year-on-year revenue growth of 58.27% and net profit growth of 53.58% for listed companies [3][5]. - Foreign capital has shown a cautious attitude, with recent net outflows from northbound funds despite the optimization of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system [3][8]. Technical Analysis - The market is showing signs of a potential top, with all three major indices exhibiting a divergence pattern, where the indices are rising while key technical indicators like MACD are not reaching new highs [3][5]. - The current trading volume is around 2 trillion yuan, which is approximately 20% lower than the peak in August, indicating a volume-price divergence that could hinder a breakout [5]. Sector Performance - There is a noticeable rotation among sectors, with recent leaders like pharmaceuticals and AI applications experiencing adjustments, while sectors such as power generation and chemicals have taken the lead [5][6]. - The technology sector is showing significant differentiation, with high valuations in AI-related stocks, while leading companies maintain stability due to their technological advantages [6]. Policy Support - Recent policy measures from the central bank and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) have provided a supportive environment for the market, including a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to ensure liquidity [8]. - The market sentiment has cooled compared to previous bullish trends, with a more rational investor mindset reflected in the changes in trading volume [8]. Investment Strategies - Institutional funds are quietly adjusting their portfolios, with social security and public funds showing significant overlap in holdings, particularly in technology innovation sectors [8]. - The current A-share market valuation is significantly lower compared to 2015, with a healthier market structure as hard tech companies have risen in prominence [10]. Upcoming Events - The market is expected to face critical tests in the coming week, focusing on trading volume expansion, sustainability of leading sectors, and the movement of northbound funds [11]. - Key economic data will be released on November 14, which may provide new directional guidance for the market [13].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a rebound during the week of November 3 to 7, maintaining a high-level fluctuation pattern, with micro-cap and dividend stocks performing notably well while other indices showed mixed results [1][3]. Market Performance - The performance of major indices for the week and year-to-date is as follows: - Wind Micro-Cap Index: Weekly increase of 3.16%, Year-to-date increase of 83.54% - Dividend Index: Weekly increase of 2.85%, Year-to-date decrease of 0.53% - Shanghai Composite Index: Weekly increase of 1.08%, Year-to-date increase of 19.27% - CSI 2000: Weekly increase of 0.88%, Year-to-date increase of 33.35% - CSI 300: Weekly increase of 0.82%, Year-to-date increase of 18.90% - ChiNext Index: Weekly increase of 0.65%, Year-to-date increase of 49.80% - CSI 1000: Weekly increase of 0.47%, Year-to-date increase of 26.59% - Shenzhen Component Index: Weekly increase of 0.19%, Year-to-date increase of 28.70% - Sci-Tech 50: Weekly increase of 0.01%, Year-to-date increase of 43.15% - CSI 50: Weekly decrease of 0.04%, Year-to-date increase of 14.25% - CSI 500: Weekly decrease of 0.04%, Year-to-date increase of 27.98% - North Exchange 50: Weekly decrease of 3.79%, Year-to-date increase of 46.73% [2]. Stock Movement - The number of stocks that rose during the week increased slightly compared to the end of October, but overall, the market remained mixed with both gains and losses [5]. - On November 7, the number of stocks that rose was 2,977, while 2,423 stocks fell, compared to 2,861 rising and 2,523 falling on October 31 [6]. Sector Rotation - The market saw sector rotation due to the narrow fluctuation of indices without significant volume breakthroughs, with recent hot sectors experiencing ups and downs, while long-term low-performing sectors showed signs of recovery [7]. - The leading sectors for the week included power generation, chemicals, and certain regional stocks, while the sectors that declined were primarily those that had performed well in the previous week, such as pharmaceuticals and AI applications [7]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment advice suggests a balanced allocation towards sectors with upward policy and industry trends, such as new energy (wind power, energy storage, solid-state batteries), machinery (robots), non-ferrous metals, media (gaming), computing (AI applications), and pharmaceuticals [10]. - Sectors that may benefit from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and potential marginal improvements in fundamentals include consumption (food, retail), military (commercial aerospace), electronics (AI hardware), and communications (computing power) [10]. External Demand Concerns - There is a growing discussion regarding the weakening of external demand, which may lead to increased focus on domestic demand themes in the upcoming week [12]. - In October, China's total import and export value was 3.7 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1%, with exports at 2.17 trillion yuan, down 0.8%, marking the first negative growth in monthly export growth since the second half of this year [12][13]. Upcoming Events - Important upcoming events include the China Robot Industry Development Conference on November 10, the International Summit on Battery New Energy Industry in Suzhou on November 11, and the World Power Battery Conference on November 12, among others [17].

Core Insights - The core idea of the article emphasizes the strategic importance of "technological self-reliance and strength" in China's 14th Five-Year Plan, indicating a strong focus on technological innovation as a key driver for economic development [1][2]. Policy and Market Opportunities - The A-share technology sector is expected to have significant potential due to the "14th Five-Year Plan" which aims to accelerate high-level technological self-reliance and lead the development of new productive forces [2]. - The government is set to provide continuous financial and resource support to sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, industrial automation, and green energy over the next decade, enhancing the growth and profitability expectations for the technology industry [2][3]. Impact of Global Interest Rate Changes - Changes in the global interest rate environment will affect technology companies through five main channels: 1. Discount rates and risk premiums will directly impact the valuation of growth-oriented technology companies, particularly in sectors like SaaS, cloud computing, and AI applications [3]. 2. Global liquidity and cross-border capital flows will influence the valuation of technology sectors in emerging markets, with lower interest rates improving liquidity and market focus on growth-oriented technology [3][4]. 3. Lower financing costs will benefit capital expenditures in technology firms, particularly in AI infrastructure investments [4]. 4. Currency fluctuations will affect profit margins for import-dependent technology manufacturers, improving cost structures during periods of a weaker dollar [4]. 5. Changes in risk appetite will drive shifts in investment styles, favoring high-growth technology stocks during periods of declining interest rates [4][5]. Identifying Policy Benefits and Risks - Investors should focus on performance and competitive advantages rather than merely chasing concepts, emphasizing the importance of matching valuation with profitability [6][8]. - The essence of valuation risk lies in the risk of realization, where short-term volatility in the technology sector often stems from market overestimation of growth expectations [6][8]. - A balanced investment approach is recommended, focusing on core assets with global competitiveness and innovation capabilities while being flexible in response to policy signals and market conditions [7][8]. Evaluating Valuation Risks - The technology sector's valuation is closely tied to market risk appetite and liquidity, with some segments experiencing short-term overheating and potential valuation bubbles [8][10]. - Investors should return to fundamentals, focusing on quantifiable performance indicators such as customer conversion rates, order visibility, and free cash flow [8][10]. Understanding Policy Dynamics - Distinguishing between long-term "institutional dividends" and short-term "emotional catalysts" is crucial for investors, as policies must be understood in terms of their transmission mechanisms and execution capabilities [9][10]. - The true value of policies is reflected in their long-term impact on industry data, such as fiscal spending and project approvals, rather than immediate market reactions [11].

Market Overview - On November 7, A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index both down by 0.16%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.37%. In contrast, the North Star 50 Index rose nearly 1% [1][2] - The total market turnover for the half-day was 1.27 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous day, with over 2,300 stocks rising [2] Sector Performance - The basic chemical, petroleum and petrochemical, and retail sectors saw gains, while lithium battery, fluorine chemical, phosphorus chemical, and photovoltaic stocks experienced significant surges [2][5] - The fluorine chemical sector rose by 4.00%, while lithium battery-related stocks also saw substantial increases, with individual stocks like Dongyue Silicon Materials and Zhaoyuan New Energy hitting the daily limit [3][5] Notable Stocks - Key stocks in the lithium battery sector included: - Dongyue Silicon Materials: 20.04% increase - Zhaoyuan New Energy: 20.01% increase - Haineng Technology: 19.95% increase [6][10] - In the photovoltaic sector, stocks like Hongyuan Green Energy and Yijing Photovoltaic also saw significant gains, with Hongyuan Green Energy rising by 10.01% [7] Storage Chip Sector - The storage chip sector was active, with stocks like Demingli hitting the daily limit and reaching a new historical high of 271.85 yuan per share [11][12] - The supply-demand situation for storage chips is tight, with SK Hynix completing negotiations for HBM4 supply with Nvidia, leading to price increases [14][15] AI Sector - The AI application sector faced declines, with stocks related to operating systems, servers, and ChatGPT all underperforming. Notable declines included Kingsoft Office and 360, both dropping over 3% [16][17] - Concerns about high valuations in the AI sector have intensified, with discussions around the potential for an "AI bubble" emerging [16]