文︱陆弃 近日，德国企业破产潮不断升级，已达到十年来最高水平，数据显示，2025年上半年共有约1.19万家企 业宣告破产，涉及员工14.1万人。这组令人震惊的数字不仅揭示了德国经济正在经历的严重衰退，更暴 露出其深层次的结构性危机和对外依赖的脆弱性。而这一切背后，美欧之间复杂且充满不确定性的贸易 博弈，正如烈焰一般，烧穿了这个"欧洲经济引擎"的肌理。 德国经济曾被誉为欧洲的支柱，制造业和出口导向型经济模式长期支撑着其稳定增长。然而，这个曾经 的经济奇迹如今却陷入了沉重的困境。数据显示，企业破产率比去年同期激增9.4%，而这背后的根 源，绝非偶然。需求疲软、成本上升、全球贸易不确定性叠加，成为压垮这座经济大厦的最后一根稻 草。尤其是美国对德国商品出口的潜在关税威胁，更是给德国出口商蒙上了巨大的阴影，使得本就脆弱 的德国经济雪上加霜。 德国国内生产总值第一季度虽然小幅增长0.2%，但这并不能掩盖经济深层次的病症。作为德国最大的 贸易伙伴，美国与欧盟之间悬而未决的贸易谈判，充满了不确定性和对抗色彩。慕尼黑经济研究所指 出，关税威胁的阴云仍笼罩在谈判桌上，出口商的信心指数从5月的-5.0继续下滑至-7.4，明显表现出 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a V-shaped reversal with a slight increase on July 1, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3457.75 points, up 0.39% [1][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10476.29 points, up 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.24% [1][4] - A total of 14965 billion yuan was traded in the A-share market, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous day [1][4] - Among the 30 CITIC first-level industries, 18 sectors saw an increase, with pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and banking leading the gains, while comprehensive finance, computers, and retail saw significant declines [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - The US stock market saw a general increase on July 1, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.91% [2][4] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.82% [2][4] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.2% and the Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index up 0.27% [2][4] Key News Highlights - The Central Economic Committee held its sixth meeting, focusing on advancing the construction of a unified national market and high-quality development of the marine economy [10][11] - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs [14] - A series of national standards were implemented starting July 1, covering various sectors including proton exchange membrane fuel cells and electric vehicle battery replacement stations [16] - SEMI projected a shortage of approximately 1 million skilled workers in the global semiconductor industry by 2030 [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the US manufacturing sector remains sluggish in June, with new orders weak and input prices rising, suggesting that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration continue to hinder businesses' planning capabilities [2] - The latest data shows that the ISM manufacturing PMI for June increased slightly from May's six-month low of 48.5 to 49.0, marking the fourth consecutive month below 50, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy [2] - Despite economic uncertainties, the labor market remains stable, as evidenced by an unexpected rise in job vacancies in May to the highest level since November of the previous year, with job openings increasing from a revised 7.4 million in April to 7.77 million in May, surpassing economists' expectations [2] Group 2 - COMEX gold prices are currently trading at $3342.10 per ounce, down 0.23%, with a daily high of $3354.80 and a low of $3340.70 [3] - The short-term outlook for COMEX gold indicates resistance levels at $3380-$3390 and support levels at $3230-$3240 [3]

Group 1 - The 2025 Global Digital Economy Conference will be held from July 2 to 5, focusing on "Building Digital Friendly Cities" and will showcase achievements over the past five years, along with the release of the "Beijing Digital Economy Development Blue Book" [1] - The 2025 China Used Car Conference will take place from July 2 to 4 in Chongqing, inviting industry representatives and experts to discuss challenges and opportunities in the used car sector, including traceability systems and long-term development mechanisms [2] - A total of 348.5 million shares from 9 companies will be unlocked today, with a total market value of 830 million yuan, including significant unlocks from companies like United Precision and ST Tongpu [3] - 147 companies have disclosed stock repurchase progress, with 148 related announcements, including 4 new repurchase plans exceeding 10 million yuan, and 131 companies reporting ongoing repurchase implementations [4] - A total of 365.3 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos will mature today, following a central bank operation conducted on June 26 with an interest rate of 1.40% [5]

Core Insights - The Australian AIG/PWC Manufacturing Performance Index for June is reported at -29.3, a decline from the previous value of -23.5 [1] Group 1 - The current index indicates a worsening performance in the manufacturing sector, reflecting a more negative outlook compared to the prior month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced a postponement of the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders originally scheduled for July 7, 2025, now set for July 11, 2025, to include a temporary proposal regarding a significant asset swap and cash purchase of assets [1][3]. Group 1: Meeting Details - The second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders will now take place on July 11, 2025, at 15:00, with the record date for shareholding remaining unchanged on July 1, 2025 [1][4]. - The meeting will be conducted both in-person and via online voting, allowing shareholders to participate through the Shenzhen Stock Exchange trading system and an internet voting platform [4][10]. - Shareholders must register to attend the meeting, with registration available from July 1 to July 11, 2025 [9]. Group 2: Proposals for Discussion - A temporary proposal regarding the significant asset swap and cash purchase of assets will be submitted for review at the meeting [1][2]. - The proposals include various aspects of the transaction, such as pricing basis, payment methods, and compliance with relevant regulations [2][7]. - The board has confirmed that the temporary proposal meets the qualifications set forth in the Company Law and the company's articles of association [3][5]. Group 3: Voting Procedures - Voting will be conducted through both in-person and online methods, with specific time frames for each voting method outlined [4][10]. - In cases of duplicate voting on the same proposal, the first valid vote will be considered [10]. - The results of the voting will be separately counted for minority investors, ensuring transparency in the decision-making process [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Wuchan Zhongda Jinlun Blue Ocean Co., Ltd., has approved a share repurchase plan using its own funds, with a total repurchase amount between RMB 10 million and RMB 20 million, aimed at employee stock ownership plans and equity incentives [1][2]. Summary by Sections Share Repurchase Plan - The company plans to repurchase shares through centralized bidding, with an estimated repurchase price not exceeding RMB 15 [1]. - The total number of shares expected to be repurchased is approximately 133.33 thousand, which represents a certain percentage of the company's total share capital at the time of the announcement [1]. Progress of Share Repurchase - As of the latest update, the company has repurchased a total of 719,500 shares, accounting for a percentage of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of RMB 10,005,342 (excluding transaction fees) [1][2]. Compliance with Regulations - The share repurchase activities are in compliance with the relevant regulations set forth by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, including restrictions on trading during specific periods and price limits [2].

同时公布的美国5月JOLTs职位空缺从前值739.1万人升至776.9万人，显示出美国就业市场的韧性。 就在上述数据公布的同时，美联储主席鲍威尔在一次研讨会上表示，美国经济处于相当良好的状态。上述经 济数据在一定程度上支撑美联储在7月议息会议上继续维持美国联邦基金利率水平不变。 鲍威尔认为，在今年夏季美国经济的通货膨胀率可能会出现明显的反弹。正是基于这样的预判，美联储迟迟 没有重新启动降息进程。在鲍威尔看来，美国经济正处于适度具有限制性的状态。 不过，特朗普总统一直以来都在催促美联储降息。这也许是因为特朗普总统担心美国经济会出现加速下行的 情况，他希望通过宽松的货币政策来对冲经济的不利因素。 笔者认为，美国经济的通货膨胀未来很可能会继续逐步下降，而非出现大幅反弹，经济的下行也存在着加速 的可能性，届时美联储再采取宽松的货币政策则可能会再次滞后于市场。 如果美国经济未来出现严重的疲软，在明年美联储主席更换后，美联储很可能会加速降息，甚至会再次将美 国联邦基金利率水平降低至零。 7月1日公布的数据显示，美国6月ISM制造业PMI从前值48.5小幅上升至49，仍然处于荣枯线以下，但是有所 改善。 JerryZang ...

金十数据7月1日讯，美国制造业在6月份仍然低迷，新订单低迷，投入价格攀升，这表明特朗普政府对 进口商品征收的关税继续阻碍企业提前计划的能力。最新的数据显示，美国6月ISM制造业PMI从5月的 六个月低点48.5微升至49.0。这是PMI连续第四个月低于50，这表明占经济10.2%的制造业出现收缩。与 此同时，楼市、消费者支出和失业人数不断增加等疲弱数据显示，美国经济的潜在动能在第二季进一步 放缓，尽管GDP可能反弹，因创纪录的贸易逆差拖累因进口下降而消退。 受关税影响，美国制造业陷入疲软 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 基建方面，6 月基建投资累计同比或有所回升。（1）6 月建筑业 PMI 大幅 上升 1.8 个百分点至 52.8%；（2）石油沥青装置开工率边际回升，沥青价格 小幅上行，水泥价格延续下跌趋势；（3）6 月新增专项债发行逐渐加速。 地产方面，6 月地产投资增速维持偏弱表现。（1）6 月以来新房销售环比 好转，但同比表现仍然偏弱，土地成交面积低于季节性水平；（2）6 月螺 纹钢和玻璃价格仍处低位运行，一定程度反映地产投资或延续偏弱。制造 业方面，6 月制造业投资可能基本持平。（1）当前内需改善，但外需疲弱。 6 月新订单指数回升至 50.2%，新出口订单指数仍处于收缩区间。（2）6 月 企业经营预期指数下行至 52.0%，反映企业当前经营压力或边际加大。 6 月经济金融"成绩单"前瞻 证券研究报告 贸易：预计 6 月出口当月同比 4.2%，进口当月同比-1.0% 宏观数据预测专题 6 月出口增速小幅下行。（1）日内瓦协议或提振 6 月对美出口表现，且中 国对欧洲等地区出口预计维持稳健；（2）全球制造业 PMI 延续下行、处于 收缩区间，意味外需仍总体疲软。 6 月作为年中时点，6 月经 ...