1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Manganese silicon/silicon iron: Volatile [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the ferroalloy market will face a game between fundamentals and macro - factors. The cost center will move up due to the rebound of coking coal prices, while the supply pressure remains with the continuous release of new manganese silicon production capacity and high - level silicon iron supply. With lackluster demand, the prices of ferrous commodities may be more affected by the macro - environment and policy expectations, deviating from fundamentals. It is expected that ferroalloy prices will seek a balance between weak fundamentals and macro - sentiment, showing a range - bound trend with limited upside and downside space [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Third - Quarter Review of the Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Markets - In the first quarter, manganese ore prices rose steadily due to factors such as decreasing port inventories and reduced Gabonese shipments, driving up manganese silicon prices. Then, as the cost - driving force weakened, manganese silicon prices declined until a rebound in the third quarter. Silicon iron prices were under pressure in the first half of the year due to weak demand. Although it followed the upward trend of manganese silicon passively, it continued to decline. In the third quarter, both manganese silicon and silicon iron prices rebounded with the recovery of coking coal prices [11] 3.2 Manganese Silicon: Rising Costs and High - Level Supply 3.2.1 Cost Increase - Manganese ore prices reached a high in the first quarter, driven by factors like slow overseas shipments, low port inventories, and concentrated ownership of oxidized ore. After that, prices declined as supply increased. In the third quarter, the price increase was limited. In the fourth quarter, port inventories are expected to be replenished, but the decline in prices may be limited. Chemical coke prices fell in the first half of the year and rebounded in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, they are expected to fluctuate within a range, providing some support to alloy prices [22][40] 3.2.2 High - Level Supply - Manganese silicon manufacturers' operating rates declined this year due to shrinking profits, but increased slightly in the second quarter as costs eased. In the third quarter, the operating rate remained high. In the fourth quarter, new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, maintaining high - level supply [42] 3.3 Silicon Iron: Rising Operating Rates and Increasing Inventories 3.3.1 Supply Release Driven by Rising Futures Profits - Silicon iron production was high from January to April. In the second quarter, production decreased due to losses. In the third quarter, with the recovery of prices and profits, supply increased. In different regions, Inner Mongolia had a high and rising operating rate, Ningxia was stable, and Shaanxi had a relatively low operating rate. In the fourth quarter, the over - capacity situation remains, and the operating rate will be profit - driven, with high supply elasticity [50][51] 3.3.2 Pressured Steel Demand at Home and Abroad - In the fourth quarter, steel demand is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors and weak real - estate investment. Silicon iron exports have been under pressure this year and are expected to remain weak in the fourth quarter. The demand from the magnesium market has limited impact on silicon iron. The balance of the silicon iron market in the fourth quarter will depend on supply - side adjustments [68] 3.4 Summary of Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron in the Second Half of the Year - In the fourth quarter, the ferroalloy market will face a game between fundamentals and macro - factors. Cost centers will move up, while supply pressure remains. With lackluster demand, prices are expected to be range - bound, and the market's volatility will depend on the game between cost support, supply pressure, and macro - factors [70][71]

Report Overview - Title: Manganese Silicon: Sector Sentiment Resonance, Weak and Oscillatory - Date: September 30, 2025 - Analysts: Yafei Li, Yuanyuan Jin (Contact) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The manganese silicon market shows a pattern of sector sentiment resonance with a weak and oscillatory trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Industry News - On September 29, 2025, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton (-100), in Qinghai 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton (-50), and in Inner Mongolia 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton; the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 6150 - 6200 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton, in Gansu 6000 - 6050 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 6100 - 6150 yuan/ton (cash含税自然块出厂, yuan/ton). The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1120 - 1150 dollars/ton (tax included). The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton (cash出厂含税报价) [1] - In September 2025, there were a total of 6 silicon - manganese producers in Sichuan - Chongqing and other southern regions, with 16 furnaces in operation. A 6517 silicon - manganese plant in Sichuan and a 6517 plant in Chongqing shut down, while a 6014 plant in Hunan resumed production. The output of 6517 silicon - manganese in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hunan and other southern regions in September was about 59,600 tons [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is -1, and that of manganese silicon is -1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3] 3.3 Futures and Spot Price Data - **Futures Contracts**: The closing price of SF2511 was 5610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 342,390 and an open interest of 133,285; the closing price of SF2601 was 5576 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan, with a trading volume of 137,007 and an open interest of 104,899; the closing price of SM2511 was 5802 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan, with a trading volume of 137,727 and an open interest of 43,582; the closing price of SM2601 was 5820 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan, with a trading volume of 286,763 and an open interest of 344,083 [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of ferrosilicon (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of silicomanganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 40 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between the spot and SF2511 was -310 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spread between the spot and SM2601 was -140 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the spread between SF2511 and SF2601 was 34 yuan/ton; the spread between SM2511 and SM2601 was -18 yuan/ton; the spread between SM2511 and SF2511 was 192 yuan/ton; the spread between SM2601 and SF2601 was 244 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was fair, but prices continued to fluctuate weakly. The Politburo meeting determined the date of the Fourth Plenary Session, and the National Development and Reform Commission is actively promoting a new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan, which boosted market sentiment. In the black - series market, trading volume declined slightly near the holiday, and the market remained cautious about holiday - period demand. Although there was a slight rebound in exports this week, the market remained in a weak oscillation. The demand for both hot - rolled coils and rebar was weak, showing prominent characteristics of a non - booming peak season. With the approach of the Fourth Plenary Session, the futures market will maintain a weakly oscillating pattern, and steel prices still face a risk of decline. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For iron ore, short - term hot - metal production is expected to remain strong. After the end of steel mills' restocking, demand contradictions will mainly be reflected in the downstream. If the situation of finished products weakens after the holiday, ore prices may adjust downward. It is necessary to focus on downstream demand and inventory conditions after the holiday [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the current demand and supply environment, the market may first experience a downward adjustment to release bearish sentiment, and then prices may rise following the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". Manganese silicon may follow the black - series market, and its price may be driven by potential disruptions in the manganese ore market. Ferrosilicon is also likely to follow the black - series market, with relatively low trading value [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. After the holiday, attention should be paid to whether there are improvements in the supply - demand structure. If production cuts occur in Southwest China during the dry season and downstream demand remains stable, the high - level inventory may decrease, and the valuation of far - month contracts may increase [14]. - For polysilicon, the current futures price has fallen below the spot price. There has been no progress in capacity integration and downstream price - passing, and the market lacks upward momentum. There is still pressure on the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the maintenance of leading enterprises [16]. - For glass, the futures market showed wide - range oscillations. Terminal demand remained weak, and downstream purchasing was cautious. Some regions saw inventory reduction, while others faced inventory accumulation. It is advisable to take a slightly bullish view in the short term and focus on subsequent policy trends [19]. - For soda ash, the domestic market remained stable with minor oscillations. Production was generally stable, and demand was tepid. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate in the short term with limited price fluctuations [21]. Summary by Category Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils) Market Information - Rebar: The closing price of the main contract was 3097 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (- 0.54%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2412 tons to 270238 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 49906 lots to 1.926639 million lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 0 and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coils: The closing price of the main contract was 3289 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (- 0.72%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 28314 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 6738 lots to 1.38447 million lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 30 and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Near the holiday, trading volume declined slightly, and the market was cautious about holiday - period demand. Rebar production was basically the same as last week, pre - holiday apparent demand increased, and inventory pressure was marginally relieved. Hot - rolled coil production declined, apparent demand was moderate, and inventory slightly accumulated. Overall, demand for both was weak, and the market was in a weakly oscillating pattern. Steel prices still faced a risk of decline, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) closed at 784.00 yuan/ton, down 0.76% (- 6.00 yuan), with an open - interest change of - 34937 lots to 474000 lots. The weighted open interest was 784200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.93 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.31% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: Overseas iron - ore shipments remained stable at a high level. Australian shipments increased slightly, Brazilian shipments decreased slightly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - term arrival volume decreased. - Demand: The average daily hot - metal production was 242.36 tons, up 1.34 tons. Steel mills' profitability declined further. - Inventory: Port inventory increased, and steel mills' imported - ore inventory increased significantly. Before the National Day, steel mills' restocking was almost over. - In the short term, hot - metal production is expected to remain strong. After restocking ends, demand contradictions will mainly be in the downstream. If finished - product conditions weaken after the holiday, ore prices may adjust downward. It is recommended to operate with light positions before the holiday and focus on downstream demand and inventory after the holiday [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - Manganese silicon: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.48% at 5820 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 170 yuan/ton. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract (SF511) closed down 0.88% at 5610 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The black - series market may first experience a downward adjustment to release bearish sentiment and then rise following the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, but low manganese - ore port inventory and relatively strong prices may drive its price if the black - series market strengthens. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the black - series market, with relatively low trading value [9][10]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8610 yuan/ton, down 3.91% (- 350 yuan). The weighted open - interest decreased by 39748 lots to 442464 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with bases of 690 and 290 yuan/ton respectively [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Before the holiday, some funds left the market, weakening the futures price. If production cuts occur in Southwest China during the dry season and downstream demand remains stable, the high - level inventory may decrease, and the valuation of far - month contracts may increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply - demand improvements after the holiday [13][14]. Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (PS2511) closed at 51280 yuan/ton, down 0.36% (- 185 yuan). The weighted open - interest decreased by 10968 lots to 229306 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material remained unchanged, with a basis of 1270 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Viewpoints - The futures price has fallen below the spot price. There has been no progress in capacity integration and downstream price - passing, lacking upward momentum. There is still pressure on the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the maintenance of leading enterprises [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 1228 yuan/ton, down 1.92% (- 24 yuan). The spot prices in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 1553000 cases (- 2.55%) to 59355000 cases. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 64705 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 43782 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1278 yuan/ton, down 1.16% (- 15 yuan). The spot price in Shahe decreased by 15 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises decreased by 104100 tons (- 2.55%) to 1651500 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 14607 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 24990 lots [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The futures market oscillated widely. Terminal demand was weak, and downstream purchasing was cautious. Some regions saw inventory reduction, while others faced accumulation. It is advisable to take a slightly bullish view in the short term and focus on policy trends [19]. - Soda ash: The domestic market remained stable with minor oscillations. Production was generally stable, and demand was tepid. It is expected to continue oscillating in the short term with limited price fluctuations [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on iron alloy prices, supply, demand, inventory, and cost - profit in the iron alloy industry. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, on September 30, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 was 5250 yuan, with a daily change of - 80 yuan and a weekly change of - 130 yuan; the latest price of Tianjin 72 export was 1025 US dollars, with no daily or weekly change. The latest price of Tianjin 75 export was 1105 US dollars, also with no daily or weekly change [2]. - For silicon manganese, on September 30, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5680 yuan, with a daily change of - 20 yuan and a weekly change of - 50 yuan [2]. Supply - For silicon iron, data on the production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China (monthly and weekly), and the capacity utilization rate of 136 silicon - iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) are presented from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - For silicon manganese, data on the production of silicon manganese in China (weekly), and the purchase price and quantity of silicon manganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) are provided from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Demand - For silicon iron, data on the demand - related indicators such as the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, the purchase volume of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the export volume of silicon iron are presented from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - For silicon manganese, data on the demand - related indicators such as the estimated production of crude steel in China, the demand for silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons), and the export volume of silicon manganese are provided from 2021 - 2025 [5][8]. Inventory - For silicon iron, data on the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of silicon iron in CZCE (daily), and the average available inventory days of silicon iron in different regions are presented from 2021 - 2025 [6]. - For silicon manganese, data on the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory of silicon manganese in CZCE (daily), the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly), and the average available inventory days of silicon manganese in China are provided from 2021 - 2025 [8]. Cost Profit - For silicon iron, data on the electricity price of iron alloys in different regions, the market price of raw materials such as semi - coke, silica, and iron oxide scale, the production cost of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicon iron in Ningxia (spot and converted to the main contract) and the export profit of 75 silicon iron are presented from 2021 - 2025 [6]. - For silicon manganese, data on the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and the northern and southern regions (in yuan per ton), and the converted profit of silicon manganese in Ningxia and Guangxi to the main contract are provided from 2021 - 2025 [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★, representing a clearer upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★★★, showing a more distinct upward trend and a proper investment chance [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and an appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish tendency but with poor operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish drive but limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is under short - term pressure due to weak demand expectations, lack of substantial production - limiting policies, and weak domestic demand, while steel exports remain high. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets have relatively strong support at previous lows but face pressure due to concerns about post - festival industrial chain feedback. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have upward price - driving forces and are recommended to go long on dips [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline today. The apparent demand for thread steel rebounded month - on - month, production stabilized, and inventory continued to decline. For hot - rolled coils, both demand and production declined slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. Although the pig iron output increased and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain eased, poor profit per ton restricted further production resumption. Domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The market is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the improvement of building material demand in the peak season [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened today, and the basis has been fluctuating at a low level recently. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments increased month - on - month and were stronger than the same period last year. The shipments from Australia and those to China increased significantly, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries remained high, while those from Brazil weakened slightly. The domestic arrival volume declined from a high level, and the port inventory increased last week. On the demand side, the profitability of steel mills declined, but the short - term resilience of pig iron production still supported iron ore demand. The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuated downward today. The first round of price hikes by coking plants is about to be fully implemented. Coke inventory continued to increase, and traders' purchasing willingness increased due to pre - holiday restocking demand. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level pig iron production provides support. However, the market is worried about post - festival industrial chain feedback, and the price is under pressure [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated downward today. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the pre - holiday restocking sentiment has basically ended. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level pig iron production provides support. The market is worried about post - festival industrial chain feedback, and the price is under pressure [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price recovered after hitting a low today. The "Three - Carbon" policy has created new upward - driving forces. The pig iron output continued to rise, the weekly production of silicon manganese increased, and inventory did not accumulate. Manganese ore prices increased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate was slow. It is recommended to go long on dips [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price recovered after hitting a low today. The "Three - Carbon" policy has created upward - driving forces. The pig iron output continued to rise, and export demand remained at about 30,000 tons. The secondary demand declined slightly, and overall demand is acceptable. Supply has recovered to a high level, and inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [8]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The manganese - silicon sector shows a weak and volatile trend due to emotional resonance in the sector [2] - The trend strength of both ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data - **Futures Contracts**: Ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5628, down 108 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 92,203 and an open interest of 99,910; Manganese - silicon 2511 closed at 5828, down 96, with a trading volume of 155,732 and an open interest of 63,093; Manganese - silicon 2601 closed at 5848, down 90, with a trading volume of 244,524 and an open interest of 335,692 [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5380 yuan/ton; the price of ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 40.0 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Differences**: The spot - futures price difference of ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) between FeSi2511 and FeSi2601 was - 280 and + 126 yuan/ton respectively; the spot - futures price difference of manganese - silicon (spot - 01 futures) was - 148 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton; the near - far month price difference of manganese - silicon between MnSi2511 and MnSi2601 was - 20 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the cross - variety price difference between MnSi2511 and FeSi2511 was 168 yuan/ton, and between MnSi2601 and FeSi2601 was 220 yuan/ton [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On September 26th, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions ranged from 5200 - 5450 yuan/ton, and 75 ferrosilicon from 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton; the FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton, and 75 was 1120 - 1150 dollars/ton; the northern quotation of 6517 ferromanganese was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton [1] - **Steel Mill Procurement**: A steel mill in Zhejiang set the price of ferromanganese at 5878 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory, based on the standard), with a procurement volume of 1300 tons; a steel mill in Shandong set the price at 5920 yuan/ton (based on the standard, acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory), with a procurement volume of 2500 tons; Zhongnan Co., Ltd. set the ferrosilicon procurement price at 5880 yuan/ton (cash), up 110 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a volume of 400 tons [1] - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 366.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.85 million tons; at Qinzhou Port, it was 71.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.22 million tons; at Caofeidian Port, it was 0 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.52 million tons; at Fangchenggang, it was 1.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 million tons. As of September 26th, the total manganese ore inventory was 439.68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.05 million tons [2][3] - **Manganese Ore Price Quotes**: Comilog announced a quotation of 4.35 dollars/ton - degree for Gabonese lumps to China in November 2025, up 0.08 dollars/ton - degree month - on - month; United Mining (CML) announced a quotation of 4.65 dollars/ton - degree for Australian lumps (Mn > 46%, Fe < 6%, SiO2 < 18%) to China in November 2025, up 0.08 dollars/ton - degree month - on - month; South32 announced a quotation of 4.15 dollars/ton - degree for South African semi - carbonate lumps (typical value Mn36.9%) and 4.55 dollars/ton - degree for Australian lumps (typical value Mn42%) to China in November 2025, up 0.05 dollars/ton - degree month - on - month [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate weakly. The steel prices still face a risk of decline from a fundamental perspective, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For iron ore, the short - term hot metal production is strong. After the steel mills' replenishment is completed, if the finished product situation weakens after the holiday, the ore price may adjust downward. It is recommended to operate with a light position before the holiday and pay attention to downstream demand and inventory after the holiday [4]. - The price of the black sector may first decline to release the bearish sentiment in the market and then rise with the expectation of the "Fourth Plenary Session". Although the decline may not be deep, the market may trade on the expectations of the "15th Five - Year Plan". In the long - term, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long positions [7]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the supply - demand structure improves after the holiday [12]. - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term risk of phased decline, and attention should be paid to the support levels of the main contract price and policy changes [14]. - Glass is recommended to be viewed with a slightly bullish bias in the short term, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy directions [17]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short term, with limited price fluctuations [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3114 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton (-1.67%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 272,650 tons, a net increase of 1228 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.976545 million lots, an increase of 106,096 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rebar production was basically the same as last week, the pre - holiday apparent demand increased, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. However, the overall demand was weak, and the steel price still faced a risk of decline [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (-1.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 28,314 tons, a decrease of 890 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.391208 million lots, an increase of 21,492 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The hot - rolled coil production declined, the apparent demand was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly. The demand was weak, and the market was in a weak volatile state [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 790.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.92% (-15.50). The position changed by -20,811 lots to 508,900 lots. The weighted position was 830,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.54 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.34% [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period. The short - term hot metal production was strong, but the steel mills' profitability declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mills' replenishment was nearly completed. If the finished product situation weakens after the holiday, the ore price may adjust downward [4]. Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes**: On September 26, the main contract (SM601) of manganese silicon dropped significantly, closing down 1.52% at 5834 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a premium of 142 yuan/ton over the futures. Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 108 yuan/ton or -1.81%. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance around 6000 yuan/ton and the support around 5600 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. If the black sector strengthens, pay attention to potential disturbances from the manganese ore end [8]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SF511) of ferrosilicon closed down 2.18% at 5660 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures. Last week, the ferrosilicon price fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 90 yuan/ton or -1.57%. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance around 5800 yuan/ton and the support around 5400 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There are no obvious contradictions and drivers in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon, and it is likely to follow the trend of the black sector [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon was 8960 yuan/ton, down 1.05% (-95). The weighted contract position changed by -17,816 lots to 482,212 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period, with a basis of 340 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of -60 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon fluctuated downward on Friday. The supply and demand have not changed significantly in the short term. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand structure after the holiday [11][12]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon was 51,465 yuan/ton, up 0.19% (+100). The weighted contract position changed by -1661 lots to 240,274 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.55 yuan/kg, all unchanged from the previous period. The basis was 1085 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current futures price is at a discount to the spot price. There is no significant progress in capacity integration and downstream price transmission. There is a short - term risk of phased decline in prices, and attention should be paid to support levels and policy changes [14]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1252 yuan/ton, down 1.42% (-18). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1220 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1220 yuan, up 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million cases, a decrease of 1.553 million cases (-2.55%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 30,926 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 19,222 lots [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass futures market showed a wide - range volatile pattern. The terminal demand was weak, and the supply was abundant. The inventory performance varied by region. It is recommended to view it with a slightly bullish bias in the short term and pay attention to subsequent policies [17]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1293 yuan/ton, down 1.67% (-22). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1203 yuan, down 22 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons (-2.55%), including a decrease of 83,700 tons in heavy soda ash inventory and a decrease of 20,400 tons in light soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 9095 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 1242 lots [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soda ash market was generally stable with slight fluctuations. The production was stable, and the demand was weak. It is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short term [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint - There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the provided documents. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, on September 29, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5330 and 5380 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of -20 and 30. The latest prices of the main contract and 01 contract were 5660 and 5628, with daily changes of -126 and -108, and weekly changes of -76 and -108 [1]. - For silicon manganese, on the same day, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, and Guangxi 6517 were 5700, 5660, and 5730 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of -30, -40, and -20. The latest price of the main contract was 5848, with a daily change of -90 and a weekly change of -116 [1]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production, weekly production (capacity ratio 95%), and monthly capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are also given, including weekly production, monthly procurement prices and quantities by HeSteel Group, and the weekly and annual enterprise start - up rates [6]. Demand - The demand - related data of silicon iron and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are provided, such as the estimated monthly production of crude steel in China, the demand for silicon manganese in China (Steel Union caliber), and the procurement volume of FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group [4][6][7]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown, including weekly inventory in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as daily CZCE silicon iron warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [5]. - The inventory data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are also presented, including daily CZCE silicon manganese warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost - profit data of silicon iron from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including electricity prices in different regions, the market price of blue carbon, the production profit of blue carbon, and the production cost, profit on the main contract, and spot profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5]. - The cost - profit data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are also given, including the profit in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi (Steel Union caliber), and the profit on the main contract in Guangxi and Ningxia [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron alloy market shows a complex situation with multiple contradictory factors. There is a contradiction between high supply and weak demand, as well as between anti - in - group competition expectations and weak reality, and the improvement of the term structure is accompanied by capital withdrawal [1][2]. - The short - term iron alloy market may experience a callback. Although the term structure has improved and some contract structures have changed from premium to discount, the lack of substantial progress in anti - in - group competition increases the risk of a sharp rise followed by a fall [2][13]. - The supply and demand of iron alloy are expected to decline. The production profit has been falling, and the demand is affected by the inventory accumulation of downstream products, which restricts the increase in demand for iron alloy [67]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - High supply and weak demand: Iron alloy production profit has declined since early September, but production remains at a high level, while downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the inventory of five major steel products has started to accumulate [1]. - Cost support, electricity price increase, and manganese ore supply disturbances: The electricity price in Ningxia has increased, and the spot price of ferrosilicon in some areas is lower than the cost. Although the manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, short - term disturbances need attention [1]. - Improvement of term structure and capital withdrawal: The term structure of iron alloy has improved, but the term structure of coking coal has not. The trading volume of iron alloy has decreased, with the total position of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreasing for three consecutive weeks [2]. - Contradiction between anti - in - group competition expectations and weak reality: There is still an expectation of supply - side contraction, but the lack of substantial action increases the risk of a sharp rise followed by a fall [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: The iron alloy market may experience a short - term callback. The price range of the ferrosilicon 2511 contract is 5400 - 6400, and that of the ferromanganese 01 contract is 5500 - 6500. It is recommended to lightly test long positions near 5550 for the ferrosilicon 11 contract and near 5800 for the ferromanganese 01 contract [13]. - Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations: The basis is expected to narrow slightly, and there is no current basis strategy. It is not recommended to bottom - fish the 1 - 5 monthly spread immediately. The recommended hedging arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 01 spread of double - silicon near - 400 [16]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The price range of ferrosilicon is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, and that of ferromanganese is 5300 - 6000 [17]. - Hedging recommendations: For inventory management, it is recommended to short iron alloy futures to lock in profits; for procurement management, it is recommended to buy iron alloy futures to lock in procurement costs [17]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a work plan for the stable growth of the steel industry. Yunnan steel enterprises have taken substantial steps in anti - in - group competition, and a steel mill in Jiangsu has raised the ferrosilicon procurement price [18]. - Bearish information: The US will impose new high - tariff measures on imported products, and the inventory of ferromanganese enterprises has increased [19]. - Spot transaction information: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions have shown different degrees of increase or decrease [20]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - It is necessary to pay attention to the specific changes in the Gabonese ore shipments and their impact on the manganese ore price, which in turn affects the cost of ferromanganese [22]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital movement: The iron alloy price showed a doji on Friday. The closing price of the ferrosilicon 11 contract decreased by 1.32% week - on - week, and the total position decreased by 14.39%. The closing price of the ferromanganese 01 contract decreased by 1.94% week - on - week, and the total position decreased by 9.12% for three consecutive weeks [23]. - Term structure: The term structure of iron alloy has improved, but the term structure of coking coal has deepened, which is bearish for the iron alloy price in the short term [27]. - Basis and monthly spread: The basis of iron alloy fluctuates slightly, and there is no recommended positive - spread strategy. It is not recommended to bottom - fish the 1 - 5 monthly spread immediately, and the 1 - 5 monthly spread may further weaken [16][28]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industry Chain - The profit of iron alloy has declined after a rebound. The downstream inventory of coking coal needs replenishment, which supports the coking coal price, but the increasing import pressure of coking coal will affect the cost of iron alloy [41]. - The profit of ferromanganese has remained relatively stable because its cost is mainly related to manganese ore, and the manganese ore price has been fluctuating at a low level due to sufficient supply [59]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The export profit of ferrosilicon is gradually declining, and the export volume is expected to decrease [64]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Supply: The production profit of iron alloy has been falling, and the production is expected to decline, especially with the possible reduction in the output of ferromanganese in the southern production area during the flat - water season [67]. - Demand: Although the demand is expected to increase seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, the profit of downstream products has declined, and the inventory has accumulated, which restricts the increase in demand for iron alloy [67]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipts are expected to continue to be destocked, and the total inventory will maintain a slow destocking trend [68]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The production profit of ferrosilicon has declined significantly, and the output is expected to decline slightly. The production profit of ferromanganese is relatively stable, and the output is expected to remain stable or decline slightly [69]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The demand for iron alloy is affected by the inventory accumulation of downstream products and the decline in the profit of steel products, and the steel - making demand may decline. The decline in the export profit of ferrosilicon will also affect its export volume [73]. 5.4 Inventory - Side and Deduction - Given the high operating rate of iron alloy and weak downstream demand, the enterprise inventory is likely to continue to accumulate, but the warehouse receipts are expected to be destocked, and the total inventory will maintain a slow destocking trend [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of alloys provides support, and their price trends are volatile. The high - level demand and rising cost of alloys this week offer some price support. However, due to the strong risk - aversion sentiment before the holiday and the game on the capital side, the price trends are volatile. Attention should be paid to the demand support from steel mills' production rhythm, and beware of intensified supply - demand contradictions and price declines if demand falls short of expectations [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Manganese silicon production has been slightly decreasing, with a weekly output of 20.64 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 tons (- 1.1%), and a weekly operating rate of 44.18%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from last week. Some regions show signs of production conversion, but new production plans create a strong bearish sentiment [18]. - **Demand**: Steel mills are conducting centralized steel tenders and pricing, and pre - holiday restocking has accelerated procurement. From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remains at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week is 90.86%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points from last week, and the average daily hot metal output is 242.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons. The overall demand for manganese silicon is weakly stable [23][24]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 26, the number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts is 56,113, a decrease of 4,563 week - on - week, with a converted inventory of 280,565 tons and a warehouse receipt destocking of 22,815 tons. - In September, the average available days of steel mills' manganese silicon inventory is 15.93 days (+ 0.95 days). - The inventory of 63 manganese silicon sample enterprises is 233,800 tons, an increase of 34,900 tons from a week ago [29][30][33]. - **Cost**: Overseas mining companies have raised their quotations, and the port inquiry atmosphere is active. The chemical coke quotation has increased, and the manganese ore port quotation is stable. The cost side supports the manganese silicon price [37][50]. 3.2 Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Ferrosilicon supply has been increasing, with a weekly output of 11.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 tons, and a weekly operating rate of 35.33%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points. Ningxia region's factories maintain high - load operation [54][55]. - **Demand**: - From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remains at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week is 90.86%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points from last week, and the average daily hot metal output is 242.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons. - Non - steel demand: In August, the stainless - steel crude steel output was 290.28 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.87 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.25%. The stainless - steel crude steel production plan for September is expected to increase by 4.4%. In August, the total output of magnesium metal was 6.95 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.58%. In August, the ferrosilicon export volume was 3.50 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [70]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 26, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises is 61,460 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,930 tons. - The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts is 17,373, a decrease of 255 week - on - week, with a converted inventory of 86,865 tons and a warehouse receipt destocking of 1,275 tons. - In September, the average available days of steel mills' ferrosilicon inventory is 15.52 days (+ 0.85 days) [71]. - **Cost**: The prices of semi - coke and oxidized iron scale have been rising, and the production cost in the north has increased month - on - month [75].