一级市场发行统计 根据Wind数据统计，截止2025年末，中国内地债券市场总存量达196.18万亿，较年初增加20.30万亿。其中利率债123.61万亿、信用债52.88万亿 和同业存单19.69万亿。 Wind统计各类债券发行数据显示，2025年度中国内地债券发行增势不减，全年各类债券发行合计89.0万亿，同比增长11%。利率债发行达到33.0 万亿，较去年增长18%，其中国债同比增长28%、地方政府债同比增长5%、政策性金融债同比增长17%。信用债发行22.2万亿，较去年增长8%。 同业存单累计发行33.8万亿，同比增长7%。 | 债券类别 | 只数 | 发行额(亿元) 同比增长率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 利率债 | 3534 | 329.829.6 | 18% | | 園侍 | 206 | 160,140.2 | 28% | | 地方政府债 | 2449 | 102,901.0 | 5% | | 政策银行债 | 879 | 66.788.4 | 17% | | 信用债 | 24003 | 222,246.7 | 8% | | 金融债 | 1499 | 56.780 ...

首创证券公告称，近日收到中国证监会批复，同意公司向专业投资者公开发行面值总额不超过50亿元的 永续次级公司债券。本次发行应按报送上海证券交易所的募集说明书进行，批复自同意注册之日起24个 月内有效，可分期发行。公司将在股东会授权范围内办理发行相关事宜，并及时披露信息。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major concerns previously affecting the bond market have been partially alleviated, with actual impacts being lower than market expectations[1] - The bond market remains relatively calm compared to other asset classes, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.84%[10] - The recent rise in the 30-year government bond yield has been a moderate response to the supply impact of long-term bonds[12] Group 2: Key Focus Areas - Economic performance in early 2026 is expected to be supported by a fiscal policy injection of 1 trillion yuan, with 625 billion yuan in special bonds already allocated[17] - Market expectations for monetary policy easing may be delayed, but the current expectations for rate cuts are considered rational[22] - The supply of long-term government bonds is manageable, with a planned issuance of approximately 1.54 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2026[24] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The willingness of institutional investors to increase their allocation to long-term bonds is viewed positively, with net purchases of long-term local bonds reaching 1.90 trillion yuan in 2025[28] - The current risk premium in the stock market has decreased to the 1/2 to 3/4 percentile range since 2002, indicating a shift towards median valuation[29] - The bond market's overall outlook is not pessimistic, and current strategies should focus on asset allocation while waiting for trading opportunities[33]

Group 1 - The trading commission for ETF funds in Wuhan in 2026 is generally aligned with stock account commissions, but it is negotiable with customer managers, with some brokers offering a minimum rate of 0.0005 for ETF transactions [1] - Investors need to prepare their ID and bank card to open a regular stock fund account before trading ETFs, which can be done through this account [1] - The trading rules for ETFs include specific trading hours, with trading sessions on weekdays from 9:30-11:30 and 13:00-15:00, and different settlement systems for stock-type ETFs (T+1) and money/bond/cross-border ETFs (T+0) [1] Group 2 - The minimum trading unit for ETFs is 1 lot (100 shares), with price changes occurring in increments of 0.001 yuan, and less liquid ETFs may have larger spreads [1] - The price fluctuation limits for ETFs are ±10% for main board ETFs, ±20% for ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs, and no limits for cross-border and commodity ETFs [1] - ETFs are generally considered more stable compared to stocks, which contributes to their popularity among investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has outlined seven key tasks for 2026, focusing on strict governance, monetary policy, financial services, risk management, financial reform, global governance, and enhancing financial management capabilities [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality economic development and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy, utilizing various tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose financing conditions [2]. - The monetary policy framework is shifting towards a price-oriented approach, with a focus on optimizing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and ensuring low financing costs for the overall economy [3]. - The PBOC is expanding the coverage of explicit comprehensive financing cost disclosures for corporate loans, benefiting numerous small and medium-sized enterprises [4]. Group 2: Exchange Rate Stability - The PBOC aims to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, preventing excessive fluctuations, especially as the RMB has recently strengthened against the USD [5]. - The future trajectory of the RMB exchange rate is expected to exhibit two-way fluctuations, influenced by domestic economic recovery and external trade negotiations [5]. - The PBOC's focus is on structural adjustments and expanding domestic demand to enhance the certainty of domestic economic circulation, which is essential for achieving long-term stability of the RMB exchange rate [5].

Market Performance - The A-share market opened the year with a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a rare 13 consecutive days of gains, closing at a ten-year high of 4083.67 points, up 1.5% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw increases of 1.4% and 0.75% respectively, indicating a broad market rally [2] - Over 140 stocks hit the daily limit up, and the total trading volume exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan [1][2] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector showed significant strength, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Luxin Venture Capital and Beidou Star Communication [2] - The brain-computer interface concept also saw a surge, with stocks like Sanbo Brain Science and Meihao Medical achieving consecutive gains [2] - The financial sector collectively rose, with companies like Hualin Securities and Dazhihui hitting the daily limit up [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector was active, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining reaching historical highs [2] Economic Factors - Analysts attribute the strong performance of the A-share market to multiple positive factors, including improved market sentiment post-New Year and expectations of long-term capital inflows from insurance funds [3] - The macroeconomic growth policies and anticipated industry policy details related to new productivity have also contributed to the rising index [3] Company Highlights - Zijin Mining's stock rose over 6%, closing with a gain of 6.21%, leading to a market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion yuan, making it the first mining company in A-shares to reach this milestone [4] - Zijin Mining expects a net profit of approximately 51-52 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 59%-62%, driven by increased production of key minerals [4] - The rise in international gold prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions, has also positively impacted Zijin Mining's performance [5] Consumer Market Impact - The increase in international gold prices has led to domestic jewelry brands like Chow Sang Sang raising their gold jewelry prices by 200 to 1500 yuan [6][8] - The price of gold jewelry is expected to continue rising, reflecting a structural change in consumer preferences towards smaller, high-design products and investment gold products [8] Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs has maintained an "overweight" rating on the A-share market, projecting a target increase of 15%-20% for the Shanghai Composite Index in 2026 [9] - Other institutions also express optimism for the A-share market, predicting a transition from valuation recovery in 2025 to profit-driven growth in 2026 [9]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 797.0 | 789.5 | 7.5 | I05-I09 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 1.0 | | I09 | 775.0 | 768.5 | 6.5 | I09-I01 | -39.5 | -36.5 | -3.0 | | I01 | 814.5 | 805.0 | 9.5 | I01-I05 | 17.5 | 15.5 | 2.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2201- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Prudent control of the scale of bond net - buying is the most appropriate approach at the initial stage of restarting bond purchases to avoid the superposition and resonance of the two channels affecting bond yields [1][3] - The ideal state is that investors treat information on treasury bond trading operations like daily open - market reverse repurchase operations, and the central bank can flexibly use open - market treasury bond trading tools to inject base money and adjust bank - system liquidity without overly affecting bond yields [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Why did the central bank only purchase 50 billion yuan of treasury bonds? - On January 5, 2026, the People's Bank of China announced the liquidity injection situation of the central bank's various tools in December 2025, showing a net liquidity injection of 50 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading tools. Compared with the monthly net purchases of 100 - 300 billion yuan from August to December 2024, the monthly net purchases of 20 - 50 billion yuan since the restart of treasury bond trading in October 2025 are relatively small. Prudent control of the purchase scale is appropriate in the initial months after restarting bond purchases [1] Impact of open - market treasury bond trading on bond yields - Open - market treasury bond trading affects bond yields through two channels. The asset - liability - sheet channel is that the central bank's trading of treasury bonds changes market supply - and - demand relations, and the expected channel is that investors trade on the information of the central bank's treasury bond trading, increasing the volatility of bond yields. The decline in yields largely comes from the expected channel [2] Measures to suppress the impact of the expected channel - The way to suppress the second channel is to dilute investors' attention to the central bank's bond purchases and weaken the relationship between the central bank's bond purchases and yields. At the beginning of restarting bond purchases, it is necessary to control the scale of bond net purchases to avoid the superposition of the two channels. When the market no longer overly focuses on the central bank's bond - purchase scale, the central bank can gradually increase the scale [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market appears to be largely unfazed by the recent geopolitical developments in Venezuela, particularly the arrest of Nicolás Maduro, with investors focusing on broader market themes such as AI and corporate earnings [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The positive response in stocks indicates that the market is not particularly concerned about the geopolitical situation in Venezuela, suggesting a focus on potential positive outcomes like "peace through strength" [2]. - Investors are assessing the implications of the US incursion into Venezuela but are currently prioritizing established market themes from 2025, including a resurgence in AI investments [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Portfolio managers believe that the current geopolitical climate will not significantly impact company fundamentals or the global economy, indicating a perception of the situation as manageable [3]. - The market's reaction may be interpreted as a "risk-on" event, suggesting that investors are willing to take on more risk in light of the geopolitical developments [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a significant geopolitical year, potentially acting as a catalyst for market rallies similar to those seen in 2016 during major regime shifts [4]. - Concerns are raised about China, the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil, as a potential source of greater risk due to its economic interests in Venezuela [4][5]. Group 4: Venezuela's Oil Reserves - Venezuela possesses the world's largest proven oil reserves, but its output has dwindled to less than 1% of global supply due to mismanagement, underinvestment, and US sanctions [5]. - The US administration's focus on reparations and reclaiming oil rights from Venezuela may lead to legal battles, particularly as China seeks to protect its economic interests [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of special refinancing bonds for debt management and infrastructure financing, highlighting the expected changes in the issuance schedule of local government bonds and the impact of policy adjustments on project funding efficiency [1]. Group 1: Special Refinancing Bonds - The use of special refinancing bonds for debt management is expected to accelerate the issuance of infrastructure-related bonds, thereby speeding up construction timelines [1]. - The issuance schedule for infrastructure bonds is primarily influenced by local project preparation and willingness to construct [1]. Group 2: Bond Issuance Forecast - The peak issuance period for the first quarter is anticipated to occur in late January and early March, with the overall peak for the year likely in the second quarter [1]. - A decline in issuance is expected in the third quarter, although the supply will remain at a high level, with the fourth quarter seeing a tapering off of local bond issuance [1]. Group 3: Policy Adjustments - The Central Economic Work Conference's proposal to "optimize the management of local government special bond usage" has garnered market attention [1]. - The deepening of the "self-examination and self-issuance" pilot program has expanded the areas where local special bonds can be directed, significantly shortening project application cycles and enhancing local autonomy in bond issuance [1]. Group 4: Future Expectations - It is expected that the optimization direction will allow for broader use of special bonds as capital, increasing their catalytic effect [1]. - The expansion of the "self-examination and self-issuance" pilot program is anticipated to enhance the efficiency of special bond issuance as pilot regions mature in project review, fund management, and risk prevention [1].