2025年06月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：联储继续按兵不动 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：库存下降，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：偏强震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：关注减产检修情况 | 7 | | 锌：中期承压，关注社库变化 | 9 | | 铅：区间运行 | 10 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 11 | | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：仓单去化加速，关注潜在采买 | 15 | | 工业硅：仓单持续去化，关注上方空间 | 17 | | 多晶硅：上游复产，盘面下跌 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations this week, with only the ChiNext index showing an increase. The ETF market continued to see net outflows, primarily from large-cap ETFs. The market is transitioning from wide fluctuations to narrower ones, with increased trading volume during this process, indicating potential consolidation in a weak market [4]. Copper Industry - In May, domestic waste copper production was 92,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20% but a month-on-month increase of 5%. The negative impact of trade conflicts on the economy has not fully materialized, which continues to suppress copper price increases. Supply-side disturbances in copper mining have increased, while demand is weakening due to reduced export stocking effects and the domestic off-season [5]. Metal Prices - The price of London gold has reached a historical high. Sunac China’s offshore debt-to-equity swap plan received support from 82% of bondholders. In May, Sunac's total sales amounted to 4.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128%, indicating strong performance [6]. Chemical Industry - Recent safety incidents in chemical parks have led to stricter approval and production regulations for high-risk chemical reactions. Leading companies in the chemical industry, with better safety management and advanced production technologies, are expected to benefit from stable production amid limited growth in high-risk products [7]. Construction Materials - The market performance showed a decline, with the CITIC building materials index down 2.16% and the CITIC construction index down 1.27%. The average price of PO42.5 cement was 365.70 yuan/ton, a slight increase, while glass prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton [8]. Agriculture and Livestock - In the pig farming sector, the industry capacity cycle has bottomed out, but high inventory levels continue to impact market dynamics. Recent policy-driven efforts are accelerating the reduction of inventory, which may lead to a rebalancing of supply and demand. Long-term, the end of inventory reduction could signal the start of a prolonged profit upcycle for the sector [9]. Renewable Energy - The nuclear fusion sector, while far from full commercialization, is seeing increased investment and research due to global military competition. Recent data from May indicates a downward trend in overall renewable energy prices, highlighting ongoing pressures in power supply and demand. Wind power, virtual power plants, and energy storage are identified as promising investment opportunities [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued to rebound, with most industrial products rising and agricultural products soaring. The main reasons were the large - scale conflict between Israel and Iran, the improvement of the Sino - US framework agreement, the resilience of the Chinese economy, and the lower - than - expected US inflation boosting the interest - rate cut expectation, which improved market risk appetite [3]. - Multiple factors may cause the commodity market to continue to rebound in the short term, including the Sino - US framework agreement, the improvement of the US economic outlook and the decline of inflation expectations, and the deterioration of the Middle - East situation [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section Overseas Situation Analysis - **Sino - US London Consultation Reached a Principle Agreement**: From June 9 - 10, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides reached a principle agreement on implementing the consensus of the heads - of - state call and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks. China's exports may still have a window period for "rush exports" before July, but the export growth rate may decline in the second half of the year [6][7]. - **US: May CPI Lower than Market Expectations**: In May, the overall CPI in the US rose 2.4% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month; the core CPI was flat at 2.8% year - on - year and rose only 0.1% month - on - month, for the fourth consecutive month lower than expected. After the data was released, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates before September jumped to 75%, and the annual interest - rate cut expectation remained at about 45 basis points. It is believed that the probability of a soft landing of the US economy in recent years is still large, and the Fed may cut interest rates in the fourth quarter [10]. - **US: Confidence Index Rebounded and Inflation Expectation Declined**: In June, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index was 60.5, a month - on - month increase of 15.9%. The 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 5.1% from 6.6%, and the 5 - year inflation expectation slightly decreased to 4.1% from 4.2%. The suspension of tariffs and the decline of inflation expectations drove the confidence to rebound, but there are still concerns in the future [13]. - **Middle - East Situation Escalated**: On the early morning of June 13, Israel launched an attack on Iran. Iran launched a series of retaliatory actions. The global economy was shaken, with the Brent crude oil price soaring 8% to $94 per barrel, the global stock markets falling generally, and the gold price breaking through $3400 per ounce [16]. Domestic Situation Analysis - **Financial Data: Mixed Results**: In June, the new social financing was 228.94 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.7%. The new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.1%. M2 increased 7.9% year - on - year, and M1 increased 2.3%. Overall, the government sector was still the main force of entity - sector financing. The central bank's actions to guide monetary easing and the expectation of restarting treasury bond trading may bring a favorable environment to the capital market [21]. - **Foreign Trade Data Interpretation: Exports Maintained Short - term Resilience**: In May, exports increased 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year. The decline in exports was affected by the weakening of "rush exports" and the high base, and the decline in imports was dragged down by the decline in commodity imports. In the short term, exports are expected to maintain a certain resilience, but there will be pressure in the second half of the year [24]. - **Policy Tracking**: The release of the "Opinions on Further Ensuring and Improving People's Livelihood" may bring development opportunities to multiple fields such as consumption and elderly care. The acceleration of the "one - old - and - one - young" policy may bring development opportunities to multiple industries, including the maternal and infant consumption, elderly care service, and related equipment industries [25]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Production End: Industrial Production was Generally Stable**: In the chemical industry, the production load remained stable, and product prices declined. In the steel industry, production declined slightly, and demand slowed down [34]. - **Demand End: Real - Estate Sales Increased Week - on - Week and Passenger - Car Retail Sales Increased Year - on - Year**: As of June 12, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities increased 43.96% week - on - week. In the first week of June, the average daily retail sales of the national passenger - car market were 43,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 19% [41]. - **Price Trends**: As of June 13, most food prices fell this week. The average vegetable price decreased 0.05% month - on - month, the average pork price decreased 1.48% month - on - month, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased 0.25% month - on - month, and the fruit price decreased 2.01% month - on - month [42].

惠誉：因美国关税，将全球化工行业前景调整为恶化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The case marks the first instance in China where a listed company's executives were held accountable for failing to fulfill a public commitment to increase shareholding, resulting in full compensation being paid to the plaintiffs [1][2]. Group 1: Case Background - The lawsuit was initiated by plaintiffs Liu and Zheng against Shanghai Jinmota Chemical Co., Ltd. and its executives for failing to fulfill a public commitment to purchase shares worth at least 300 million yuan [1][2]. - The executives had announced plans to increase their holdings within six months but failed to do so, leading to regulatory actions from the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1][2]. Group 2: Legal Implications - This case is significant as it is the first judicial application of Article 84 of the new Securities Law, which stipulates that failure to fulfill public commitments can lead to civil liability for damages [2][3]. - The court found that the executives did not have the financial means to fulfill their commitment and had misled investors, thus constituting a false statement [3][4]. Group 3: Financial Outcomes - The court ordered the executives to compensate Liu for 506,100 yuan and Zheng for 277,400 yuan, totaling over 900,000 yuan in damages claimed by the plaintiffs [2][4]. - The executives' failure to fulfill their commitment resulted in significant financial losses for the plaintiffs, who had invested based on the expectation of the share purchase [3][4]. Group 4: Market Impact - The public commitment to increase shareholding was expected to significantly impact the company's stock price and ownership structure, but the lack of follow-through led to investor losses and market misinformation [2][4]. - The case highlights the importance of transparency and accountability among company executives in maintaining investor confidence and market integrity [3][4].

昊华化工科技集团股份有限公司 第八届董事会第三十三次会议 决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 昊华化工科技集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"昊华科技"）第八届董事会第三十三次会议于2025 年6月11日以通讯表决的方式召开。会议通知等材料已于2025年6月10日以电子邮件并短信通知的方式发 送给公司董事、监事、高级管理人员，全体董事一致同意豁免本次会议通知期限。会议应出席董事8 名，实际出席董事8名，共收回有效表决票8份。会议的召开符合相关法律、行政法规、部门规章、规范 性文件和《公司章程》的规定。 会议审议并通过如下议案： 一、关于审议提名姚立新先生为公司第八届董事会非独立董事候选人的议案 证券代码：600378 证券简称：昊华科技 公告编号：临2025－051 鉴于杨茂良先生因工作安排原因辞去公司第八届董事会董事及董事会战略与可持续发展委员会委员等职 务，根据《公司法》和《公司章程》的有关规定，为保障董事会工作的顺利开展，经股东单位推荐，公 司董事会同意提名姚立新先生为第八届董事会非独立董事候选人 ...

截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本1,103,255,194股为基数，每股派发现金红利 ，共计派发现金红利1,103,255,194元（含税） 证券代码：600141 证券简称：兴发集团 公告编号：临 2025-035 转债代码：110089 转债简称：兴发转债 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A股 | 2025/6/19 | － | 2025/6/20 | 2025/6/20 | | ? 差异化分红送转：否 一、 通过分配方案的股东会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司于2025 年 4 月 24 日召开的2024年年度股东会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 三、 相关日期 | 股份类别 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 天 然 橡 胶 & 2 0 号 胶 日期 美金泰标 现货 美金泰混 现货 人民币混 合胶 上海全乳 上海3L 泰国胶水 泰国杯胶 云南胶水 海南胶水 顺丁橡胶 RU主力 NR主力 2025/06/0 3 1660 1650 13440 12850 14950 56.5 49.5 12700 15000 11300 13450 11810 2025/06/0 4 1680 1665 13550 13055 15000 56.0 44.6 12700 14800 11300 13655 12020 2025/06/0 5 1680 1660 13490 12945 14900 56.0 44.7 12800 14800 11300 13545 11965 2025/06/0 6 1680 1670 13570 13050 14950 56.0 44.9 13000 15000 11500 13650 12025 2025/06/0 9 1680 1680 13650 13125 14850 56.0 45.2 13000 14800 11500 13725 12050 日度变化 0 10 80 75 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy [10][18]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a recovery in macro expectations, with a notable increase in oil prices due to supply risks from geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand [10][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic demand and opportunities in new material substitutions, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring planting season [10][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have risen this week, with a focus on companies that have strong fundamentals and are less affected by oil price fluctuations [10][18]. - Recommendations include companies like Wanhua Chemical, Huamao Technology, Runfeng Co., Guoguang Co., and Hualu Hengsheng, highlighting their unique market positions and growth potential [10][18]. 2. Oil and Chemical Price Information 2.1 Oil - As of June 6, Brent oil prices increased by 4.02% to $66.47 per barrel, driven by supply risks and seasonal demand [14]. - U.S. crude oil commercial inventories decreased by 4.3 million barrels to 436.1 million barrels [14]. 2.2 Chemicals - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were for liquid chlorine (up 11.8%), natural gas (up 9.3%), and hydrochloric acid (up 4.6%) [15]. - The report notes significant monthly price changes, with hydrochloric acid increasing by 54.5% [10][15]. 3. Price and Spread Changes - The report highlights the top three products with the largest weekly spread increases: R410a spread (up 200.0%), acrylic acid butyl ester spread (up 58.2%), and PTA (up 45.9%) [10][20]. - Monthly spread changes show significant increases in the electric stone method PVC spread (up 216.9%) [10][20].

Group 1: Event Overview - The 2025 Shanghai International Carbon Neutral Technology, Products and Achievements Expo (referred to as "Shanghai Carbon Expo") will be held from June 5 to 7, focusing on six core areas including key technologies for energy transition, low-carbon transportation technologies, efficient resource utilization models in the circular economy, innovative applications for energy conservation and efficiency, green finance and certification services, and green consumption transformation for sustainable development [1] - This year's expo features a higher "low-carbon content," with low-carbon technologies and products increasing by 50% compared to last year, totaling over 1,200, and over 300 companies from 15 countries and regions are invited to participate [1] Group 2: Key Exhibitors and Technologies - State Grid, as the largest exhibitor and participating for three consecutive years, showcased five thematic exhibition areas focusing on high-quality development, new power system construction, new production capacity development, green low-carbon transformation, and active service for the Belt and Road Initiative [4] - The "All-Network Power Balance Lean Management System" presented by State Grid enables precise and intuitive grasp of resource information across various sectors, addressing issues such as resource gaps and optimization paths [4] - The system has supported 33 provincial grid companies in conducting over 10,000 intelligent decision-making simulations, achieving a maximum daily power support of 14 million kilowatts and reducing carbon emissions by 14.9 million tons through renewable energy consumption [8] Group 3: Innovations in Chemical Industry - BASF, the world's largest chemical company, presented innovations in three major areas: new energy, new raw materials, and new technologies, including the Limus® urease inhibitor that can reduce ammonia volatilization losses by 70% and enhance nitrogen fertilizer utilization [11] - In 2024, BASF's production bases in China are expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 375,000 tons due to the use of renewable energy [13] Group 4: Environmental Equipment Innovations - Shanghai Pinggao Electric Co., a subsidiary of Pinggao Electric, introduced a 24 kV environmentally friendly gas-insulated switchgear that uses nitrogen as an insulating gas, offering higher reliability and environmental friendliness compared to traditional air-insulated switchgear [11] - The demand for gas-insulated switchgear in China is currently less than 10%, significantly lower than the approximately 80% in developed countries, indicating a potential growth opportunity in the market [18]