Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil's geopolitical situation may lead to price increases. A pessimistic view on the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and an expected risk escalation in the Caribbean region could drive prices up. Chemicals, especially aromatics and methanol, are favored for long - positions. Other products have different trading outlooks based on their fundamentals and technical analysis [1][3]. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro drivers are weak in the short - term. Geopolitical factors are likely to be the main driver in December. A short - term bullish view but difficult to trade, and a mid - term shorting opportunity after a pulse - like upward movement is expected [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level is short - term oscillating. An intraday oscillation, with a break below 450 indicating a shift from an uptrend to oscillation. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [3]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Seasonal de - stocking is unexpectedly replaced by inventory accumulation, with a risk of over - stocking. There are short - term fundamental contradictions, and mid - term differences are significant. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the gasoline - blending logic and future imports. Be cautious of potential geopolitical - driven upward pulses in crude oil [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows short - term oscillation, with an unclear structure. The 15 - minute level shows an upward structure, with a signal of a callback end and a counter - package at the end of the session. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation and a trial long - position on the 15 - minute level with a stop - loss at 6550 is recommended [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: There are no short - term contradictions. Tire demand has limited growth potential, and supply - side factors show a normal seasonal inventory accumulation in Qingdao during the Southeast Asian rubber - tapping season. An oscillating view is taken [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows short - term oscillation. An intraday decline on reduced positions, with an unclear hourly - level structure. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [10][12]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: It is mainly traded based on butadiene. Butadiene inventory has reached a 5 - year high in recent weeks, putting pressure on prices. Although the fundamental driver is downward, the low valuation limits short - selling space. Be cautious of potential geopolitical - driven upward pulses in crude oil. An oscillating and observing approach is recommended [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows short - term oscillation. An intraday decline on reduced positions, maintaining an oscillating structure. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [15]. (5) PX - **Logic**: Its supply - demand is moderately bullish, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is based on expectations. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost of crude oil and relatively strong chemical fundamentals may attract more long - positions. A long - position view is maintained [17][19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, with an intraday oscillation but the upward structure remaining unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 6700. A strategy of holding long - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - loss at 6700 is recommended [19]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, polyester has relatively low pressure, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is based on expectations. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost of crude oil and relatively strong chemical fundamentals may attract more long - positions. A long - position view is maintained [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, with an intraday oscillation but the upward structure remaining unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 4620. A strategy of holding long - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - loss at 4620 is recommended [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: It still faces the pressure of upcoming olefin capacity expansion, with high supply and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand drive is bearish, and attention should be paid to the cost - side drive from crude oil [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure, with an intraday oscillation. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [23]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Iranian methanol plant outages are more than expected. With the start of winter gas restrictions, a full - scale shutdown is likely in December. After the market over - reacted to the less - than - expected gas restrictions, the price has room for upward correction. High shipping volumes and high inventories have already been priced in, and the port de - stocking rate is accelerating. There is a large upward space as short - positions are unwound [24][26]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. An intraday oscillation, with the upward structure continuing. The short - term support is at 2100. A strategy of holding long - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - loss at 2100 is recommended [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue. With the collapse of domestic real - estate demand, there is no hope for demand improvement. Social inventory is at a high level and still increasing, with no upward drive [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. An intraday oscillation, with an unclear short - term technical structure. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Multiple MEG plants in Iran are under maintenance, but domestic supply remains high with the resumption of maintenance and new capacity expansion, leading to continued inventory accumulation. Be cautious of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday decline on increased positions, with the short - term pressure at 3920. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [30]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: Downstream demand recovery is slow, and the supply pressure from upstream olefin capacity expansion remains. The supply - demand situation is weak and has not improved. Be cautious of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday oscillation, with the short - term pressure at 6825. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [32]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, and the reduction of downstream glass production lines suppresses demand. Although the downward fundamental drive remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short - positions is reduced [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday decline on reduced positions, with the downward structure unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 1195. A strategy of cautiously holding remaining short - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - profit at 1195 is recommended [33]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: New capacity has been put into operation, and most plants have resumed production after maintenance, resulting in high supply. The alumina industry's losses are expanding, and demand for caustic soda remains weak. There is no upward drive in the supply - demand situation [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday decline on increased positions, with the downward structure unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 2220. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [36].

（编辑 楚丽君） 证券日报网讯 12月3日，博源化工在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司将密切关注行业动态，以中 长期可持续发展为指引，密切关注并综合研判市场情况和行业变化等多种因素，在此基础上制定适宜的 经营管理策略，并将结合市场波动情况及时审视和相应更新。 ...

作为广西对外开放的前沿城市，钦州何以成为全球企业眼中的"香饽饽"，让外资纷纷选择这里、深耕这里、加码这里？答案，藏在其通江达海的区位优势、 日趋完善的产业链集群以及优质的营商环境等多重优势中。 通江达海，架起全球合作桥梁 泰尔新材料（钦州）4条生产线建成；广西宏瑞物流有限公司的仓库、堆场全面竣工；广西金桂浆纸业有限公司前10月进出口总额达9.94亿美元……今年前 三季度，钦州市实际使用外资1.85亿美元，占全区33.7%，总量稳居全区第一；目前拥有外资企业310家，今年新注册外资企业20家。 作为印尼金光集团亚洲浆纸业有限公司旗下的企业，广西金桂浆纸业有限公司2006年就在钦州港建立厂房，如今拥有2000多名员工，年产值102亿元，2025 年跻身广西企业100强前50位。 "钦州得天独厚的港口优势，是我们深耕于此的核心原因。"公司总监汪波的话语，点出了选择落户这里的关键。目前，企业从印尼、泰国、越南进口原材 料；白卡纸产品则出口东南亚、中东和欧洲国家。今年1—10月，进口总额4.06亿美元，出口总额5.88亿美元，其中白卡纸出口84.5万吨。 汪波坦言，北部湾港直航航线逐年加密，自动化码头投用后作业效率大幅 ...

格隆汇12月2日丨三友化工(600409.SH)在投资者互动平台表示，公司目前未布局氢能源领域。 ...

消息面 伊朗装置停车导致到港量下滑，华东MTO装置高负荷，预计港口库存去化，甲醇价格反弹，但下游聚 烯烃价格难大幅上涨，甲醇价格存在上限，短期震荡偏强。 一德期货： 12.1久泰投料，预计后期开工将回升，近期受伊朗限气检修、下游集中采购等因素影响，沿海价格止跌 反弹，伊朗惜售下价格也有所提升，加之近期卸货延续缓慢，到港不及预期，短期甲醇震荡偏强运行， 但另一方面，国内高供给、港口高库存、在途外轮充裕等情况延续，市场供需压力仍存，12月上旬伊朗 卡维计划检修、宁波富德MTO计划停车，供需均转弱，预计12月下旬或明年1月进口到货将明显下降， 未来仍需关注去库节奏及成本变动情况。 截至11月27日，沿海地区甲醇库存在151.4万吨（目前沿海甲醇库存仍旧处于历史高位），相比11月20 日下跌9.45万吨，跌幅为5.88%，同比上涨29.68%。 上周(20251121-1127)中国甲醇产量为2023515吨，较上周增加7530吨，装置产能利用率为89.09%，环比 涨0.37%。 机构观点 光大期货： 据外媒报道，南美MHTL甲醇装置开工不满；美国Koch170万吨/年甲醇装置正常运行中；北美 Natgasolin ...

Cefic称，欧洲化工行业面临来自亚洲等地区的激烈竞争，而作为欧洲经济重要驱动力的对外贸易未出 现显著改善。当前行业形势令人担忧，化工企业身处复杂的全球经济环境，欧洲居高不下的能源成本与 持续疲软的市场需求构成双重压力。能源价格仍是核心关切点，欧洲化工行业出口乏力，同时遭遇进口 激增冲击。欧盟商业与消费者调查数据显示，2025年1~8月欧洲化工行业信心较2024年同期大幅下滑。 中化新网讯 近日，欧洲化工委员会(Cefic)发布的最新《化工趋势报告》显示，继2024年下降2.4%后， 2025年欧洲化工产量预计将进一步下滑2.0%。报告指出，不确定性持续抑制行业投资，2025~2026年前 景"黯淡"。化工企业关停潮正推动去工业化进程，成本优势国家从中受益。 产量数据方面，2025年前9个月欧洲化工产量同比下降2.5%，较2014~2019年"危机前"水平仍低10%。其 中荷兰降幅最大，达6.2%，法国和德国分别下降3.9%和3.2%。价格端保持稳定，1~8月化工产品价格与 2024年同期持平，但销售额同比下降2.3%。 贸易层面，2025年前8月欧洲化工出口额同比下降2.3%至1486亿欧元，进口额增长2. ...

恒逸石化(000703.SZ)发布公告，公司控股股东恒逸集团及其一致行动人恒逸投资拟自本公告披露之日 起的6个月内(即2025年12月2日至2026年6月1日)，法律法规及深圳证券交易所业务规则等有关规定不允 许增持的期间除外，以自有资金及股份增持专项贷款，通过深圳证券交易所交易系统，以集中竞价、大 宗交易及协议转让方式增持公司股份。增持股份金额不低于(含)15亿元，不高于(含)25亿元，增持价格 区间为不超过10元/股。 同时，中信银行股份有限公司杭州萧山支行于近日向恒逸集团出具《贷款承诺函》，同意为恒逸集团增 持公司股份提供不超过10亿元的股票增持专项贷款支持，承诺函有效期自签发之日起一年。中国建设银 行股份有限公司宁波市分行于近日向恒逸投资出具《贷款承诺函》，同意为恒逸集团增持公司股份提供 不超过10亿元的股票增持专项贷款支持，承诺函有效期自出具之日起一年。 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——5年期大面积下线，3年期利率低至1.5%仍一单难求：要么"售罄"要么"额度 紧张"！中长期大额存单为何在消失？ （记者 王晓波） 每经AI快讯，宇新股份（SZ 002986，收盘价：10.96元）12月1日晚间发布公告称，截至2025年11月30 日，公司通过回购股份专用证券账户以集中竞价方式回购公司股份约532万股，占公司总股本的 1.3879%，最高成交价为13.19元/股，最低成交价为10.46元/股，已使用资金总额约5999万元。 2025年1至6月份，宇新股份的营业收入构成为：化工行业占比99.99%，其他占比0.01%。 截至发稿，宇新股份市值为42亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to rise, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a maximum intraday increase of 1.89% and closing up 0.76% as of the report [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector include phosphorous chemicals, rubber additives, lithium batteries, and coatings, with notable gains from companies like Hebang Biological, Tongcheng New Materials, and Tinci Materials [1][2] - The Chemical ETF has outperformed major indices this year, with a year-to-date increase of 27.76%, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 16.02% and the CSI 300 Index's 15.04% [1][3] Group 2 - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a threefold increase in shipments from 2025 to 2035, leading to price increases for lithium hexafluorophosphate, projected to exceed 250,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [4] - The current price-to-book ratio of the Chemical ETF is 2.32, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [4] - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks, providing exposure to leading companies in various chemical sub-sectors [5] Group 3 - The chemical industry is currently at a valuation and profit bottom, with net profits of 116 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.45% [9] - Demand is expected to improve due to the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and stabilization of global political conditions, while cost pressures from oil and coal prices are anticipated to weaken [9] - The chemical sector is poised for a turning point driven by anti-involution policies, with a significant decrease in construction projects expected in the first half of 2025 [9]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Consumer demand shows signs of recovery with metro passenger volume increasing by 4.7% year-on-year as of November 28[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in November reached 1.384 million units, down 11.9% year-on-year[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2184.0, up 9.5% month-on-month and 42.9% year-on-year, indicating rising external demand[1] Domestic Macro - Production Side - National daily coal consumption in power plants decreased by 2.68% year-on-year to 4.72 million tons as of November 29[2] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces recorded 82.30%, down 1.55 percentage points month-on-month[2] - Cement dispatch rate was 33.44%, down 4.27 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting weak construction activity[2] Price Performance - Pork prices fell by 0.26% week-on-week, while vegetable prices increased by 1.23%[2] - WTI crude oil rose by 0.84% and Brent crude by 1.02% as of November 29, indicating volatility in oil prices[2] - The average wholesale price of apples increased by 2.14%, driven by reduced production and quality issues[1] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Special new bonds issued totaled 1.35 trillion yuan, with a significant acceleration in issuance[2] - MLF net injection reached 100 billion yuan, marking the ninth consecutive month of net MLF injections[2] - The yield curve for government bonds has steepened, with the 30-year yield at 2.1851%[2] Overseas Macro - US economic activity shows signs of marginal cooling, with retail sales increasing only 0.2% in September[3] - Ongoing US-Russia peace negotiations face significant unresolved issues, maintaining high uncertainty in the conflict[3] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 216,000, indicating a return to low levels, but continued claims remain high at 1.96 million[3]