每经编辑｜许绍航 胡玲 王瀚黎 标题点睛 伊朗外交部21日发表声明说，伊朗政府已将欧盟成员国的海军和空军列为"恐怖组织"，以回应欧盟将伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队列入"恐怖组织名单"。（新华 社） 2月21日晚，哈尔滨冰雪大世界发布公告，由于2月20日、21日气温骤然升高，突破历史极值，冰雪景观融化严重，第二十七届哈尔滨冰雪大世界即日起正 式闭园，已购票的游客可通过原购票渠道申请全额退款。同时，位于哈尔滨冰雪大世界园区内的世界最大室内冰雪主题乐园——梦幻冰雪馆，将于2月22 日12时正式开放。 据报道，OpenAI正在重新设定其资本支出预期。OpenAI向投资者表示，到2030年的总算力支出目标约为6000亿美元，较CEO阿尔特曼此前宣称的1.4万亿 美元基础设施承诺大幅缩水。报道称，OpenAI调整后的毛利率在2025年已下滑至33%，该公司仍预计到2030年现金流才能转正。（每经综合） 1 春运前20天预计全社会跨区域人员流动量50.8亿人次 2月21日，2026年春运过半，春运前20天预计全社会跨区域人员流动量达50.8亿人次，日均2.5亿人次，创下历史同期新高。2月21日全社会跨区域人员流动 量预计超3.6亿人 ...

五大机构集体加仓同一标的，表面是对赛道的一致看好，本质是机构资金交易意愿的高度统一。但普通投资者往往只能通过事后披露的持仓数据被动分析， 很难实时捕捉到这种真实意愿。而量化大数据技术的升级，让追踪机构交易行为成为可能。就拿这只不到三个月股价翻倍的股票来说，每次创出阶段新高后 就会进入调整，仅看股价走势，很容易让人误以为行情见顶，提前离场。 看图1： 图中的橙色柱体是「机构库存」数据，它反映的是机构资金的交易活跃程度，库存持续时间越长，说明机构参与交易的积极性越高。从图中能清晰看到，每 次股价调整期间，「机构库存」始终保持活跃状态，这意味着机构资金的交易意愿丝毫没有降低，调整只是市场的短期波动，并非行情终结的信号。二、从 行为维度看：股价波动下的真实意愿 最近，五家头部中资机构的美股持仓动态正式披露，调仓动作呈现出"共识与分歧并存"的鲜明特征：中概电商龙头获集体加仓，成为跨机构的最大共识；部 分机构则将核心投资标的转向谷歌，取代此前的AI算力龙头。在全球流动性边际变化与AI产业分化的大背景下，很多人只关注调仓的"标的变化"，却忽略了 背后藏着的资金行为逻辑。其实，无论市场如何波动，最终决定方向的是资金的交易意愿 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates this year remains high due to structural pressures on the economy and employment [1][16] - The U.S. GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate unexpectedly declined to 1.4% in the fourth quarter, indicating potential economic risks [1][16] - The K-shaped economic divergence in the U.S. is becoming more pronounced, with middle and low-income groups facing limited consumption capacity due to high inflation and stagnant wages [1][16] Group 2: Market Reactions - The overseas markets experienced significant movements during the Spring Festival, with oil prices leading among major assets due to the Iranian situation, while software stocks faced pressure from AI concerns [2] - The U.S. stock market was buoyed by earnings expectations and a recovery in risk appetite, despite concerns over potential fiscal pressures from the ruling on tariffs [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events, particularly the U.S.-Iran negotiations and developments in U.S.-China relations, are influencing global risk preferences and commodity prices [7][8] - The upcoming visit of former President Trump to China is seen as a critical moment for risk management and rule reconstruction between the two largest economies [8] Group 4: Tariff Developments - The Supreme Court's ruling that tariffs imposed by Trump were illegal represents a significant setback, leading to the potential return of approximately $175 billion in tariffs, which could exacerbate U.S. fiscal pressures [11][13] - Trump's administration is responding with temporary global tariffs under Section 122, which may reduce the impact of previous tariffs [11] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Despite concerns over excessive investment in AI, the current adjustment in the AI sector is viewed as healthy, with structural opportunities still present, particularly in scarce hardware and quality model targets [5] - Gold is expected to regain its pricing value as volatility stabilizes, while oil prices may improve as supply-demand dynamics shift in the first quarter [7]

文/陈岩鹏 这个世界有时候就是这么巧。 2014年，农历甲午马年，微信红包横空出世。那一年，张小龙团队做的一个小功能，改写了中国移动支 付的格局。 2026年，农历丙午马年，AI红包全面爆发。这一年，字节、阿里、腾讯、百度砸下超过45亿元，争夺 下一代智能入口。 十二年一个轮回。 两匹"马"，恰好踩准了中国互联网两次最大的浪潮。 第一个马年：那匹"黑马"是怎么跑出来的？ 2014年春节，微信团队做了一个小功能——红包。 2015年春晚，微信乘胜追击，正式开启"春晚红包"时代。那一夜，"摇一摇"摇出了10亿次红包收发，摇 出了微信支付的逆袭，也摇出了此后十二年的互联网春晚大战。 十二年间：那些年我们追过的红包 从2014到2026，这十二年是怎样的十二年？ 是移动互联网从崛起到饱和的十二年。是BAT从鼎盛到分化，TMD从崛起到登台的十二年。是流量从 廉价到昂贵的十二年，是用户从新鲜到疲惫的十二年。 我们看着春晚红包从"摇一摇"变成"集五福"，从"拼手速"变成"拼社交"，从"抢几块钱"变成"抢几亿"。 我们看着互联网大厂轮番登场，微信、支付宝、淘宝、百度、快手、抖音、京东、拼多多——没有一个 缺席过春晚。 我们也 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 春节期间A股停牌，港股开启节后首个交易日。港股整体出现调整，但AI应用和机器人板块逆势大涨， 这符合我之前对市场的预期，因为春晚节目中AI应用以及机器人大放异彩，大幅提升了投资者对于这 两个方向的信心。 恒生科技指数出现较大幅度回调，主要原因是恒生科技指数的成分股主要是互联网巨头，盈利主要来自 于消费层面，但当前社会消费品零售总额增速较低，消费增速低拖累这些科技互联网公司的表现。所以 过去半年，恒生科技指数出现了比较大的调整，外卖大战让资本对这些互联网巨头的"含科量"产生质 疑，很多资金从核心科技指数、一些互联网巨头中流出，寻找纯正的AI应用和机器人等科技创新板 块，这反映出一部分资金的态度。 港股首日出现较大幅度调整并不意味着马年港股没有机会，马年A股和港股都有望延续这轮慢牛、长牛 走势，继续出现较多的投资机会。去年年底我发布了2026年十大预言，明确讲到2026年美股高位波动的 风险加大，A股和港股则会延续慢牛行情的特征，出现一定的赚钱效应。我在过去十年发布了10次十大 预言，其中8次都得到了完美的验证，只有2022年和2023年这 ...

马年春节，全球市场最大"黑天鹅"落地，炸出了贵金属的"超级大红包"！ 当地时间2月20日，美国联邦最高法院以6:3的关键投票，作出里程碑式裁决：正式认定特朗普政府实施的大规模全球关 税，超出总统法定权限，相关政策自始无效！ 这一裁决，堪称美国贸易政策的"分水岭"。它不仅封死了总统"绕开国会、任性加税"的捷径，更瞬间点燃了市场热情： 美股三大指数集体上演"低开高走"，道琼斯指数收涨0.47%，站稳49625点；标普500指数涨0.69%，报6909点；纳斯达克 收涨0.90%，收报22886点。 贵金属更是迎来狂欢，黄金大涨2.66%，一举冲破5100美元大关，COMEX白银期货更疯狂，单日飙升8.9%，报85.19美 元/盎司。 01"无序加税"终于剧终了 回溯过往，特朗普政府自2025年1月上台后，便援引IEEPA法案，以行政令形式绕过国会，多次单方面推出一系列大规模 全球关税措施，此举不仅遭到美国12个州及上千家企业联合起诉，更因其无明确期限、反复多变的变更、无税率上限的 无序性，持续困扰企业经营决策、压制市场风险偏好，成为美股震荡走弱的核心症结之一。 此次最高法院的裁决，强有力封杀了总统无序加税的路径， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategies of Li Lu, a prominent investor, highlighting his focus on concentrated positions in a few companies and his ability to pivot quickly to new opportunities, particularly in the context of the AI boom and the performance of Micron Technology and Google. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Li Lu's investment style is characterized by a concentrated approach, often focusing heavily on a few companies [2][13] - He previously held a significant position in Micron Technology but sold before its substantial price increase, demonstrating a willingness to pivot [4][5] - Following the sale of Micron, he quickly shifted his focus to another company, which turned out to be Google, a core player in the AI space [8][9] Group 2: Portfolio Composition - As of the latest disclosures, Google's stock constitutes over 43% of Li Lu's portfolio, making it the largest holding [12][15] - The top five holdings in his portfolio account for approximately 95.96% of the total, indicating a highly concentrated investment strategy [14] - The portfolio includes eight stocks, with the remaining holdings being significantly smaller in proportion [14][15] Group 3: Historical Context and Performance - Li Lu introduced Warren Buffett to BYD in 2008, which led to significant returns over 17 years [3] - The article notes that Li Lu's ability to identify and invest in high-potential companies has been a hallmark of his investment philosophy [19] - His approach emphasizes understanding a company's long-term potential and the importance of selecting undervalued stocks [14][19] Group 4: Insights on Value Investing - Li Lu believes that successful investing is more about temperament than intelligence or experience, highlighting the importance of patience and decisiveness [20][22] - He advocates for a deep understanding of businesses and encourages investors to think like owners rather than traders [19][20] - The article emphasizes the significance of compounding returns and maintaining a long-term perspective in investing [24]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration's global tariff policy was illegal, leading to significant market reactions including a drop in the dollar and a surge in gold and silver prices [1][3]. Market Reactions - Following the ruling, the U.S. dollar index fell, while gold prices surged, with spot gold reaching over $5,100 per ounce, marking a more than 2% increase [4][6]. - Silver prices experienced even more dramatic increases, with a peak rise of nearly 9%, closing above $84 per ounce [4][6]. Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices rebounded, with the Nasdaq Composite rising by 0.90%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.47%, and the S&P 500 up by 0.69% [7][8]. - European markets also followed suit, with significant gains across major indices such as Germany's DAX and the UK's FTSE 100 [7]. Sector Highlights - Technology stocks led the market rebound, with notable gains from companies like Google (up 3.74%), Apple (up 1.54%), and Amazon (up 2.56%) [8][10]. - The broader market saw concentrated gains in sectors related to advanced technology and high-end manufacturing, with increases ranging from 1.5% to 4% [10]. Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stocks rebounded after five days of decline, with the Livermore Chinese Concept Stock Index rising by 0.94% [11]. - Notable individual stock performances included NetEase, which surged by 10.17%, and other companies like Tuniu and Pinduoduo also saw significant gains [11][12]. Economic Context - The Supreme Court's ruling alleviated trade uncertainties, positively impacting market risk appetite [3][15]. - Concurrently, disappointing U.S. GDP growth data for Q4 2025, reported at 1.4%, heightened recession concerns, further boosting gold's appeal as a safe haven [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the economic landscape of Guigang, particularly due to the opening of the Pinglu Canal and the influence of AI on daily life, highlighting the city's strategic position and emerging industries [1][3][8]. Group 1: Pinglu Canal and Economic Impact - The Pinglu Canal is a key infrastructure project that will reshape the shipping landscape in Southwest China, expected to be completed by the end of 2026, allowing 5,000-ton vessels to navigate [3][18]. - The canal will reduce shipping distances by over 560 kilometers, saving more than 5.2 billion yuan in annual shipping costs, fundamentally changing the export dynamics of the region [3][18]. - Guigang is positioned as a core city in the Pinglu Canal economic belt, enhancing its role as a transportation hub and facilitating the development of local industries [5][20]. Group 2: Local Economic Activity and AI Influence - The local economy in Guigang has become more vibrant, with increased public activity during the Spring Festival, reflecting a resurgence in consumer engagement [8][23]. - AI applications are becoming prevalent in daily life, influencing consumer habits and advertising strategies, with significant competition among AI service providers [12][28]. - The integration of AI into various sectors is expected to reshape the internet traffic distribution and enterprise software landscape, marking a transformative period for technology companies [12][28].

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of traditional Chinese New Year customs influenced by technology, highlighting the shift from sending text messages to using AI for personalized greetings and the impact on social interactions [1] - The concept of "tech customs" is explored, indicating that the rapid advancement in technology has transformed how people celebrate the New Year, suggesting that future customs may include robots as gifts [1] - The article notes that despite technological changes, traditional family interactions remain significant, with parents and children finding common ground during the holiday [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the trend of outdoor activities during the Spring Festival, with an increase in hiking and nature exploration as a way to rejuvenate and connect with family [2] - It emphasizes the resurgence of hands-on activities during the holiday, where families engage in crafts and DIY projects, reflecting a shift in how younger generations celebrate [2] - The piece concludes that the essence of New Year customs is adaptable and will continue to evolve with technological advancements, encouraging creativity and imagination in celebrations [2]