资讯编辑：周小燕 021-26096760 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 12月18日，国家统计局公布，11月中国铅产量70.5万吨，同比增长7.8%；中国锌产量65.4万吨，同比增 长13.3%。 1-11月中国铅产量702.1万吨，同比增长2.4%；中国锌产量684.2万吨，同比增长9.5%。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-18 国内现货升贴水持续走强 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-16.47美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-160元/吨至23020元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水90元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-160元/吨至22930元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-20元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-150元/吨至22940元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-17沪锌主力合约开于23005元/吨，收于22970元/吨，较前一交易日-170元/吨，全天交易日成交 120568手，全天交易日持仓59226手，日内价格最高点达到23020元/吨，最低点达到22835元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-17，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.57万吨，较上期变化-0.26万吨。截止2025-12-17，LME 锌库存为97700吨，较上一交易日变化2150吨。 市场分析 国内现货市场随着绝对价格回落交投活跃，下游逢低点价补货，贸易商交投积极，现货升贴水持续修复。海外库 存激增升水转为贴水，中国锌锭出口窗口关闭，但集中交货预计难以持续， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various futures products across multiple industries, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Each product's market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends are detailed, with corresponding investment strategies proposed based on these analyses. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selections - Tin: With a strong fundamental outlook, tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand in some areas like South China shows resilience. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips. [2][36][39] - Methanol: The spot and basis are both strengthening, and trading is fair. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after shipping volume decreases. [3] - Coking Coal: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market has rebounded from an oversold position. Short - term rebound is expected. [3][61][63] - Fats and Oils: Affected by US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, vegetable oils have rebounded in the short term. Different types of oils like palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have their own market characteristics and price trends. [4][80][82] 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: A - share markets showed a mixed trend. Index futures declined, and the basis of expiring contracts converged naturally. [8][9] - News: Domestic fiscal revenue data was released, and overseas trade frictions emerged. [9][10] - Capital Flow: A - share trading volume was stable, and the central bank conducted net reverse - repo withdrawals. [10] - Investment Strategy: Given the unclear market trend, it is advisable to wait and see. [10] 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures rose across the board, with long - term bonds experiencing significant gains. [11] - Capital Flow: The central bank conducted reverse - repo operations, resulting in net withdrawals. [12] - Investment Strategy: The short - term upward trend is not solid. It is recommended to treat the market as a shock, with short - term trading being cautious. [13] 3.3 Precious Metals - Market: Fed officials signaled a dovish stance, driving the price of precious metals higher. Silver reached a new high. [14][15] - Outlook: Gold is expected to rise in the medium - to - long term, while silver may face regulatory risks due to over - buying. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise steadily in the long term. [16][17] 3.4 Shipping Index (European Routes) - Index: SCFIS and SCFI indices showed different trends. [18] - Fundamentals: Container shipping capacity increased, while demand in some regions was weak. [18] - Logic: The futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. [18][19] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Inventories increased, and spot trading was average. The price is expected to be volatile, with support at 90000 - 91000 yuan/ton. [19][22] - Alumina: The price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate, with a reference range of 2450 - 2700 yuan/ton. [23][25] - Aluminum: The price is expected to fluctuate widely, with support at 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton. [25][28] - Aluminum Alloy: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, with a reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. [29][31] - Zinc: The price center has adjusted downward, and the supply pattern is gradually tightening. The price is expected to be volatile, with support at 22850 - 22950 yuan/ton. [32][35] - Tin: The fundamentals are strong, and the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to hold long positions. [36][39] - Nickel: The price is expected to recover slightly in the short term, with a reference range of 112000 - 116000 yuan/ton. [39][42] - Stainless Steel: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a reference range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton. [43][45] - Lithium Carbonate: The price rose significantly due to news, and the fundamentals are in a state of strong supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce long positions. [47][50] - Polysilicon: The futures price rose to a new high, but the supply is excessive, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [51][53] - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a reference range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. [53][54] 3.6 Black Metals - Steel: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with 5 - month contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coils focusing on the 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton and 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton ranges respectively. [55][57] - Iron Ore: The price is expected to rebound, with a recommended long - position strategy for the 2605 contract in the 730 - 800 yuan/ton range. [58][60] - Coking Coal: The price has rebounded from an oversold position, and short - term rebound is expected. [61][63] - Coke: The price has rebounded from an oversold position, and short - term rebound is expected. [64][66] 3.7 Agricultural Products - Meal: The US soybean market lacks highlights, and the domestic soybean meal market has pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of a decline in the 1 - 5 positive spread. [67][69] - Live Pigs: The market has a sentiment of withholding sales, and it is necessary to pay attention to the development of the epidemic. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures price is expected to adjust narrowly. [70][71] - Corn: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sales rhythm and downstream replenishment. [72][74] - Sugar: The international sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to be weak. [75] - Cotton: The US cotton price is expected to fluctuate, and the domestic price increase is expected to slow down. It is necessary to pay attention to the resistance level at 14050 - 14100 yuan/ton. [76][78] - Eggs: The supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [79] - Fats and Oils: Affected by US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, vegetable oils have rebounded in the short term. Different types of oils have their own market characteristics. [4][80][82] - Red Dates: The new - year supply has a slight reduction, and the demand needs to be released. The futures price is expected to be weak, and the spot price is stable. [84] - Apples: The market is light, and it is recommended to close long positions. [85] 3.8 Energy Chemicals - PX: The medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at a low level. It is recommended to buy on dips in the 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton range. [87][88] - PTA: The short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the medium - term is expected to be loose. It is recommended to buy on dips in the 4500 - 4800 yuan/ton range and consider a long - position strategy for the TA5 - 9 spread. [89][90] - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw material. It is recommended to take a similar strategy as PTA and reduce the processing margin on rallies. [91][92] - Bottle Chip: The inventory decline supports the processing margin. It is necessary to pay attention to the restart and commissioning of devices. It is recommended to sell the PR2602 - P - 5500 option on rallies. [93][94] - Ethylene Glycol: The domestic supply is shrinking, but the far - month supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to sell the EG2605 - C - 4100 option on rallies. [95][97] - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand is weak, and the price has limited downward space. It is expected to fluctuate in the 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton range. [98] - Styrene: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price has limited upward drive. It is expected to fluctuate in the 6400 - 6700 yuan/ton range. [99][100] - LLDPE: The trading has weakened, and it is recommended to wait and see. [101][102] - PP: The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the PDH profit. [102] - Methanol: The spot and basis are strengthening, and the 05 contract can be considered for long positions after shipping volume decreases. [3][103][104] - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. [104][105] - PVC: The price has rebounded due to news, but the supply - demand is still in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to go short on rallies. [106] - Soda Ash: The supply is excessive, and the price has no continuous upward drive. It is recommended to short on rallies after a rebound. [107][109] - Glass: The spot price has stabilized, but the market still has pressure. It is recommended to close long positions. [107][110] - Natural Rubber: The price is expected to fluctuate in the 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton range, and it is recommended to wait and see. [110][113] - Synthetic Rubber: The cost is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 11200 yuan/ton for the BR2602 contract. [113][115]

Group 1 - Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.59%, reaching 3.97 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 97.7361 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.80%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 6.414 billion yuan [1] - The company, established on September 11, 1992, and listed on June 26, 1997, is located in Huludao City, Liaoning Province, and primarily engages in the smelting and sales of zinc and lead, with its main business revenue composition being: cathode copper 46.36%, zinc products 32.53%, other products 16.32%, non-ferrous metal trading 3.03%, and lead 1.76% [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten heavy stocks of funds, Everbright Pramerica Fund holds a significant position in Zinc Industry Co., with its multi-strategy mixed fund (004457) holding 9,000 shares, accounting for 0.21% of the fund's net value, ranking as the sixth largest heavy stock [2] - The Everbright Pramerica multi-strategy mixed fund (004457) was established on May 16, 2017, with a latest scale of 16.5897 million. Year-to-date return is 5.76%, ranking 6492 out of 8189 in its category; the one-year return is 5.48%, ranking 6101 out of 8144; and the return since inception is 41.61% [2] Group 3 - The fund managers of Everbright Pramerica multi-strategy mixed fund (004457) are Zhu Jiantao and Yao Shi. As of the latest update, Zhu Jiantao has a cumulative tenure of 1 year and 227 days, with total fund assets of 1.851 billion yuan, achieving a best fund return of 45.79% and a worst fund return of 6.75% during his tenure [3] - Yao Shi has a cumulative tenure of 2 years and 358 days, managing total fund assets of 97.6925 million yuan, with a best fund return of 13.48% and a worst fund return of -4.18% during his tenure [3]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 18 日 0 / 51 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：反弹再受美股情绪影响 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：博弈反弹行情 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 | 盘面继续承压 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价小幅下跌 | 郑糖大跌后调整 6 | | 油脂板块：棕榈油技术性反弹，油脂整体仍处于底部震荡 8 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货回落，盘面底部震荡 9 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 现货小幅反弹 10 | | 花生：花生现货回落，花生盘面窄幅震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价稳定为主 11 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 12 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | 棉价震荡偏强 13 | | 钢材：原料止跌企稳，钢价触底反弹 15 | | --- | | 双焦：波动加大，关注交易逻辑的变化 15 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 16 | | 铁合金：成本有支撑，需求存压制 17 | | 金银：美联储释放鸽派信号 再现金稳银强走势 18 | | --- ...

本报讯 （记者袁传玺）天眼查App显示，近日，陕西有色镁基高端制造有限公司成立，注册资本10亿 元，经营范围包括有色金属铸造、常用有色金属冶炼等。股东信息显示，该公司由陕西有色金属控股集 团有限责任公司全资持股。 ...

Core Points - 株冶集团's stock closed at 16.0 yuan on December 17, 2025, marking a 6.45% increase from the previous trading day, with a total market capitalization of 17.166 billion yuan [1] - The company plans to review the estimated daily related transactions for 2026, which are expected to total 14.27 billion yuan with 22 related parties, primarily involving goods sales, engineering services, and entrusted loans [1] - 株冶集团 intends to engage in commodity futures hedging and foreign exchange derivative business to mitigate price and exchange rate fluctuation risks, with established margin and contract value limits [1] Summary by Category Stock Performance - 株冶集团's stock opened at 15.14 yuan, reached a high of 16.16 yuan, and a low of 15.1 yuan, with a trading volume of 3.8 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.23% [1] Corporate Actions - The company is set to discuss the estimated daily related transactions for 2026 at the upcoming shareholder meeting, with a focus on transactions with 22 related parties totaling 14.27 billion yuan [1] Risk Management Strategies - 株冶集团 plans to implement commodity futures hedging and foreign exchange derivatives to avoid risks associated with price and exchange rate fluctuations, ensuring that these activities are not speculative [1]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a narrow fluctuation in the morning and a strong rally in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.92% to 25,468.78 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.03% to 5,457.95 points, and the National Enterprises Index up by 0.98% to 8,843.57 points [1] - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Alibaba up 1.25%, Tencent Holdings up 1.42%, JD Group up 1.26%, and Meituan up 1.81% [1] - The aviation sector showed strong performance, with China Southern Airlines rising over 5%, while financial stocks also saw gains, with China Life Insurance increasing over 4% [1] - The metals sector led the gains, with Tianqi Lithium up nearly 6%, Ganfeng Lithium up over 5%, and Luoyang Molybdenum up over 2% [1] - Semiconductor stocks also rose, with Shanghai Fudan up 4%, Huahong Semiconductor up nearly 3%, and SMIC up over 2% [1] Corporate News - China Energy Construction (03996.HK) announced the official operation of the first phase of the Zhongnengjian Songyuan Hydrogen Energy Industrial Park project [2] - China Pacific Insurance (02601.HK) reported that its cumulative original insurance premium income for the first 11 months reached RMB 250.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, while its property insurance premium income was RMB 187.68 billion, up 0.3% [2] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692.HK) entered into a licensing agreement with Glenmark for Amivantamab, which includes an upfront payment and potential milestone payments exceeding USD 1 billion [2] Financing Activities - Yuexiu Property (00123.HK) secured a term loan financing of HKD 500 million [3] - China Railway Construction (01186.HK) plans to issue company bonds with a total amount not exceeding RMB 4 billion [4] - Genscript Biotech (01672.HK) increased its share buyback fund from a maximum of HKD 300 million to HKD 500 million [5] - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) repurchased 1.067 million shares for approximately HKD 636 million at prices ranging from HKD 592.5 to HKD 602.5 [6] - Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) repurchased 7.2 million shares for HKD 294 million at prices between HKD 40.36 and HKD 41.00 [7] - Kuaishou Technology (01024.HK) repurchased 1.8231 million shares for HKD 116 million at prices from HKD 63.05 to HKD 64.4 [8] - Geely Automobile (00175.HK) repurchased 299,900 shares for approximately HKD 50.54 million at prices between HKD 16.72 and HKD 17.2 [9] Institutional Insights - According to China Merchants Securities, the recent weakness in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to southbound capital returning to A-shares due to new public fund benchmark regulations, concerns over IPO financing, and the upcoming peak of stock unlocks [10] - Huatai Securities noted that while the market's downside is manageable, the upside potential has not yet opened up, with market sentiment indicators remaining in a pessimistic range [10] - China Merchants Securities also highlighted that the Hong Kong market has not stabilized after overseas interest rate cuts, primarily due to internal liquidity issues [10]

Core Viewpoint - The value of Japanese yen coins is increasing due to rising raw material prices, particularly copper, which has reached historical highs, leading to the raw material value of the 5 yen coin exceeding its face value and the 10 yen coin approaching 90% of its face value [2][4]. Group 1: Raw Material Composition and Prices - The 5 yen coin consists of 60% to 70% copper and 30% to 40% zinc, while the 10 yen coin is made up of 95% copper, 3% to 4% zinc, and 1% to 2% tin [4][5]. - As of December 15, the raw material prices are estimated at 5.4 yen for the 5 yen coin and 8.7 yen for the 10 yen coin based on domestic market prices [4][5]. Group 2: Global Trends and Implications - The increase in raw material prices is a global phenomenon, with the U.S. Mint halting the production of the 1 cent coin due to high manufacturing costs, which are nearly four times its face value [6]. - The trend towards cashless payments is growing, with a significant decrease in cash usage for transactions under 1000 yen in Japan, dropping from 89.2% to 61.6% over the past decade [6]. Group 3: Currency Production and Future Considerations - The Japanese Ministry of Finance has stated that cash remains essential for those unable to use cashless payment methods, and there are no plans to stop producing circulating currency [8]. - The manufacturing environment for currency has changed significantly, with no new production of 1 yen and 5 yen coins for circulation since 2016 and 2021, respectively, indicating a need to reassess the value of currency [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Copper: Night-time copper prices slightly declined. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profit is at the break - even point. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production is in decline, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have fallen, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production is in decline, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment in the non - ferrous market as a whole needs to be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Metal Market Data - **Copper**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 91,840 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 145 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 11,619 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 9.52 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 165,875 tons with a daily change of - 25 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 21,780 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 120 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,883 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 43.33 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 519,600 tons with a daily change of - 50 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 23,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 65 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,035 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 31.61 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 64,475 tons with a daily change of 2,550 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 112,290 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,670 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 14,255 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 190.25 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 253,392 tons with a daily change of 360 tons [2]. - **Lead**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 16,825 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 85 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 1,942 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 51.52 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 252,475 tons with a daily change of 17,725 tons [2]. - **Tin**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 320,620 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 5,820 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 40,955 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is 50.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 3,795 tons with a daily change of 125 tons [2].