期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 01 月 27 日 研究员：刘倩楠 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作目价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日份 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 108.44 | 108.53 | -0.09 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.00 | 4.10 | -0.10 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.25 | -0.15 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.84 | 7.88 | -0.04 | | 期货价格 | | | | | ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚1月1-25日棕榈油出口量为746745吨，较上月同期出 口的824276吨减少9.41%。 ...

Core Insights - The average price of 60 essential consumer goods in Binzhou, Shandong Province is projected to be 12.19 yuan per jin in 2025, a decrease of 2.63% compared to the previous year [1] - Prices for grains and aquatic products remain stable, while beef and vegetable prices have increased, and prices for raw grains, pork, lamb, eggs, and fruits have decreased [1] Grain Prices - The average price of wheat for the year is expected to be 1.22 yuan per jin, down 5.51% from 2024, with a slight increase in the fourth quarter [2] - The average price of corn is projected to be 1.13 yuan per jin, remaining stable compared to 2024, with seasonal fluctuations throughout the year [2] Oil and Rice Prices - Prices for flour and rice have remained stable, with special flour at 2.38 yuan per jin and standard flour at 2.05 yuan per jin, while peanut oil and soybean oil have decreased by approximately 6% [3] Pork and Beef Prices - The average purchase price of live pigs is 7.03 yuan per jin, down 16.96% from 2024, and pork prices average 15.21 yuan per jin, a decrease of 5.35% [6] - Fresh beef prices have increased to an average of 31.42 yuan per jin, up 22.16% from the previous year, influenced by previous supply reductions and tightening import policies [6] Lamb and Egg Prices - The average price of fresh lamb is 36.38 yuan per jin, down 10.55% year-on-year, with a price trend that initially declined before rising [7] - The average price of eggs is 3.65 yuan per jin, reflecting a significant decrease of 20.66% compared to last year, with a notable drop in the second half of the year [10] Vegetable and Fruit Prices - The average price of 22 types of vegetables is 3.31 yuan per jin, down 6.88% year-on-year, showing a "V" shaped trend influenced by reduced planting areas and adverse weather conditions [12] - The average price of five types of fruits is 3.42 yuan per jin, showing a slight decrease of 3.42% compared to last year, with mixed trends among different fruit types [13]

Core Points - India will significantly reduce tariffs on cars imported from the EU from 110% to as low as 10%, with an annual quota of 250,000 vehicles [2][1] - Tariffs on auto parts will be completely eliminated within five to ten years [3] - Tariffs on machinery (up to 44%), chemicals (22%), and pharmaceuticals (11%) will also be largely eliminated [4] - The agreement will remove tariffs on over 90% of EU goods [5] - A proposal for zero tariffs on EU steel products has been made [6] - High tariffs on EU agricultural products will be removed or reduced [7] - Wine tariffs will be reduced to 20%-30%, spirits to 40%, and beer to 50% [8] - Overall, this will save approximately €4 billion in tariffs for European products annually [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of commodity markets, highlighting the sequential rotation of different commodities as indicators of economic phases. It emphasizes that the current market signals suggest the beginning of a new commodity cycle, characterized by differentiation and rotation rather than a broad-based rally [1][13]. Group 1: Commodity Phases - The first phase of a commodity bull market typically features precious metals like gold and silver, which shine during economic uncertainty or stagflation, as seen since March 2024 with gold prices reaching $4000 per ounce [2][3]. - The second phase involves industrial metals, such as copper, which signal economic recovery as demand for raw materials increases when economic stimulus measures take effect. This phase began in November 2025 with rising copper prices [3][4]. - The third phase is marked by a surge in energy and chemical products, driven by overheating economies where demand for oil and related products spikes, often accompanied by inflationary pressures [4][5]. - The final phase sees agricultural products gaining traction, as their demand remains relatively stable regardless of economic conditions, often influenced by production costs and weather conditions [5][6]. Group 2: Current Market Analysis - Current market conditions indicate that gold has reached a historical high, signaling strong global demand for safe-haven assets and concerns about the traditional monetary system, marking a clear first phase signal [10]. - The strong performance of industrial metals suggests that market participants are pricing in expectations of economic recovery, with significant investments flowing into this sector [10][11]. - Energy and chemical products are still in a relatively low position, indicating that the global economy has not yet reached a stage of full operational capacity, suggesting that the third phase is still developing [10][11]. - Agricultural products are influenced more by specific supply and demand factors rather than broad economic trends, indicating that they are not yet in a position to lead the cycle [11][12]. Group 3: Macro Indicators - The dollar's decline since 2025 is noted as a favorable backdrop for commodity price increases, as historically, a weakening dollar correlates with rising commodity prices [12]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has shown signs of recovery since February 2025, which typically precedes a broader rise in commodity prices by 1-3 months, indicating increased global trade activity [12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The article suggests that the current market environment presents structural opportunities, particularly in precious metals and select industrial metals, which have clear investment logic supported by macro indicators [13][14]. - Energy and chemical sectors require patience as their comprehensive market movements depend on confirming signals of economic overheating, while agricultural investments should focus on specific supply narratives rather than broader trends [14].

Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - The meeting between President Trump and Chinese leaders is scheduled for late October 2025, indicating efforts to stabilize relations ahead of the elections [1] - Both sides have engaged in multiple high-level communications focusing on trade and finance, avoiding sensitive topics [1][3] - Canada's Prime Minister's visit to China in January 2026 highlights international attention on U.S.-China relations [1] Group 2: Trade Developments - China purchased over 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans in November 2025, with shipments expected to arrive in January 2026, helping alleviate pressure on U.S. farmers [5] - The U.S. approved the export of Nvidia's H200 chips to China with conditions, including third-party audits and sales limits [5][9] - U.S. soybean exports reached 12 million tons, while China's gold purchases attracted more countries, indicating a recovery in trade relations [11] Group 3: Economic Strategies - China's gold reserves increased to 7.415 million ounces by the end of December 2025, reflecting a strategy to enhance risk resilience [7] - The U.S. Department of Commerce adjusted its review process for certain products, allowing for more flexibility in trade [7] - The ongoing trade truce has led to a 30% reduction in U.S. farmers' inventory, while stabilizing prices in China [11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for Trump's timely visit to China remains a focal point for international observers [13] - The normalization of soybean procurement presents new opportunities for U.S.-China economic relations [13] - The scale of H200 chip exports remains uncertain, but strong internal dynamics could expand future cooperation [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural sector [1] Core Insights - The USDA has raised global corn and soybean production forecasts, indicating a positive outlook for these commodities [1] - The report highlights adjustments in global agricultural supply and demand, with specific increases in corn, soybean, wheat, and rice production and consumption [5] Summary by Sections Corn - Global corn production for the 2025/26 year is forecasted at 1.296 billion tons, an increase of 1.02% from previous estimates, driven by higher yields and increased harvested area [8] - China's corn production is expected to rise to 301 million tons, a 2.12% increase, while consumption remains stable at 321 million tons [10] Soybeans - Global soybean production is projected at 425.68 million tons, a 0.74% increase, with Brazil's production rising significantly due to favorable weather [19] - China's soybean production is expected to decline to 20.90 million tons, with consumption decreasing slightly to 133 million tons [25] Wheat - Global wheat production is forecasted at 842.17 million tons, a 0.52% increase, with demand also rising, leading to a higher stock-to-use ratio of 33.77% [32] - China's wheat production is expected to be stable at 140 million tons, with a stock-to-use ratio projected to rise to 84.36% [37] Rice - Global rice production is adjusted to 541 million tons, with a slight increase in demand, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 35.12% [43] - China's rice production is expected to increase to 146 million tons, with consumption also rising, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 71.46% [43]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: The cotton market is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival. On January 27, 2026, the main cotton contract closed at 14,650 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 7,457 lots to 795,900 lots. The ICE U.S. cotton price dropped 1.36% to 62.94 cents/pound, and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased by 0.51%. Overseas macro disturbances have increased risk - aversion, postponing the first interest - rate cut of the year to June. In the domestic market, textile enterprises' pre - holiday stocking is limited, and as the Spring Festival approaches, they will start to have holidays. The current cotton inventory is at a high level, and imported cotton has increased, so the upward driving force for cotton prices is limited [2]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market is also expected to be volatile. In the 2025/26 sugar - making season in December, India reached the milestone of 20% ethanol blending in gasoline. The spot price range of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 5,260 - 5,330 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton; Yunnan sugar - making groups' price is 5,130 - 5,180 yuan/ton, unchanged. The raw sugar has not broken out of the volatile range. In the domestic market, spot trading has slowed down, inventory is accumulating, and the market sentiment is average. Future attention should be paid to the production data in January and the latest production estimates in Guangxi [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 45 yuan, up 40 yuan; the main contract basis is 1,345 yuan, up 170 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,717 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,995 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 10 yuan, up 2 yuan; the main contract basis is 148 yuan, up 8 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 5,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,320 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On January 26, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,144, an increase of 172 from the previous trading day, with 986 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 15,717 yuan/ton, Henan 16,038 yuan/ton, Shandong 16,049 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 16,184 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 47.6, down 0.3 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 24.6, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 50.6, down 0.2; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 32.3, up 0.1 [4]. - **Sugar**: On January 26, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day, and in Liuzhou it was 5,320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 13,715, a decrease of 30 from the previous trading day, with 132 valid forecasts [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: The report provides charts of the cotton main contract closing price, main contract basis, 3 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index: 3218B [7][10][11][12]. - **Sugar**: The report provides charts of the sugar main contract closing price, main contract basis, 3 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [14][15][17]. 4. Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferro - alloy [19][20][21].

2026 年 01 月 26 日 二手房成交量价齐升 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） hening@kysec.cn guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070004 供需：开年建筑开工转暖，工业开工有韧性，需求仍弱 1.建筑开工：开工率季节性位置整体回升。最近两周（1 月 11 日至 1 月 24 日）， 水泥发运率、磨机运转率高于 2025 年同期，石油沥青装置开工率处于同期历史 低位。基建项目水泥直供量同比降幅仍大，房建水泥用量则接近 2025 年同期。 资金方面，2026 开年建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2025 年同期。 2.工业生产端，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化表现较弱。最近两周（1 月 11 日至 1 月 24 日），工业开工出现分化，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化 表现较弱。化工链中 PX 开工率维持历史高位，PTA 开工率处于历史中低位，汽 车钢胎开工率处于同期历史中高位，焦化企业开工率降至历史低位。 3.需求端，建筑需求仍弱，汽车、家电销售仍弱。最近两周(1 月 10 日至 1 月 23 日)，螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需 ...

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