Core Insights - South Africa's agricultural exports are projected to reach a record $15.1 billion in 2025, marking a 10% increase from 2024 despite the impact of U.S. tariffs [1] - The report indicates a 3% decline in agricultural exports to the U.S. for 2025, with a significant drop of 39% in the fourth quarter [1] - The growth in agricultural exports is attributed to increased production and improved logistics efficiency, along with efforts to diversify markets [1] Market Distribution - In the fourth quarter of 2025, 53% of South Africa's agricultural exports were directed to African countries, 17% to Asia and the Middle East, and 16% to EU countries, while the Americas, including the U.S., accounted for only 4% [1] Strategic Focus - The agricultural sector is encouraged to maintain existing markets while actively exploring new ones, particularly targeting BRICS nations such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, as well as broader Asian and Middle Eastern markets [2]

Core Insights - The third annual quality agricultural, cultural, tourism, and commercial product fair in Jurong City was held with the theme "A Year of Flavor, Good Fortune Comes" to celebrate the upcoming Year of the Horse [1] - The event featured over 150 booths at the Gexian Lake Park and 50 booths at the Baohua Mountain scenic area, showcasing local agricultural products, cultural creations, and intangible cultural heritage [1] Group 1 - The fair aimed to create a comprehensive New Year celebration experience combining product purchasing, cultural experiences, and festive entertainment [1] - Various themed sections were set up at the Gexian Lake Park, including specialty goods, scenic area promotions, intangible cultural heritage experiences, and hotel and supermarket areas, facilitating easy access for citizens [1] - The Baohua Mountain venue included local and Nanjing specialty merchants, enhancing the diversity of offerings [1] Group 2 - The event also featured cultural activities, including free calligraphy services for Spring Festival couplets, provided by nine calligraphers throughout the day [3] - Daily artistic performances were organized to create a festive atmosphere, with participation from new employment groups such as delivery workers, who received practical gifts as a token of appreciation [3] - To ensure a comfortable experience for visitors, over 400 parking spaces were made available for free at Gexian Lake Park, and shuttle services were provided at Baohua Mountain for easier access [3]

Group 1: U.S.-China Relations and Trade - Trump's upcoming visit to China in April is not a typical state visit but rather a response to urgent domestic issues in the U.S. [1][3] - The U.S. agricultural sector is suffering due to the trade war, with significant declines in exports to China, including a 23.6% drop in oilseed imports and a 38.2% drop in meat products from January to November 2025 [4][5]. - The visit aims to negotiate increased agricultural exports from the U.S. to China, particularly soybeans and beef, to alleviate pressure on American farmers [4][8]. Group 2: Strategic Resources and Defense - The U.S. military's reliance on Chinese rare earth elements poses a significant risk, as China controls over 90% of the global rare earth refining capacity [5][6]. - The U.S. has initiated a $12 billion "strategic reserve" plan to secure critical minerals, but experts believe it will take 5 to 10 years and substantial investment to build an independent supply chain [6][8]. - The urgency for stable rare earth supplies is underscored by the potential impact on U.S. defense capabilities, particularly the production of advanced weaponry like the F-35 [5][6]. Group 3: International Relations and Financial Obligations - The U.S. is facing a financial crisis at the United Nations, with over $4.6 billion in unpaid dues, which threatens the functioning of the organization [6][7]. - The U.S. has not paid its regular budget contributions for the entirety of 2025, leading to significant international pressure to resolve the issue [7][8]. - Trump's visit is also aimed at seeking China's cooperation in addressing the U.N. funding crisis, highlighting the U.S.'s diminishing influence in global affairs [7][9].

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a pattern of reduced volume and mixed fluctuations, with essential consumer and industrial sectors leading weekly gains[1] - The growth style's congestion level has decreased over the past two weeks, but remains lower than that of high-quality and growth stocks in absolute terms[1] Industry Insights - Congestion levels for agricultural products and banks have increased, while transportation and telecommunications sectors lag behind in weekly trading congestion[1] - Essential consumer and industrial sectors showed strong weekly performance, indicating a potential shift in market focus[4] Investment Trends - Institutional funds generally experienced a pullback as growth stocks declined, reflecting a broader trend of profit-taking among funds[4] - The Longjiang Manufacturing Champions and Low-Carbon Leaders indices performed well, highlighting specific thematic investment opportunities[4] Performance Metrics - The growth style indices showed a notable decline, with the Longjiang Growth Index down by 4.08% and the Longjiang High Valuation Index down by 6.20%[21] - In contrast, the Longjiang Low Valuation Index recorded a modest gain of 0.56%, indicating a preference for value-oriented investments during this period[31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase in U.S. soybean export expectations is positive for U.S. soybeans, but the decline in Brazilian soybean premiums partially offsets the upward impact on U.S. soybeans. The domestic market trend is weaker than the overseas market, with short - term expectations of range - bound trading. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. The domestic supply - demand situation will marginally increase in the first quarter, and the spot basis is expected to weaken, with M3 - M5 favoring reverse arbitrage [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - On February 9th, the basis of the Dalian soybean meal main contract was 451, up 6; the basis of the Tianjin soybean meal main contract was 431, down 14; the basis of the Zhangjiagang 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) was 351, down 14; the basis of the Dongguan 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) was 331, down 14; the basis of the Zhanjiang 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) was 351, down 14; the basis of the Fangcheng 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) was 371; the basis of the Guangdong rapeseed meal spot was 174; N3 - 5 was 268 [4] 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation - **Supply**: Brazilian soybeans are in the harvesting period. As of January 31st, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 11.4%, compared with 6.6% last week and 8% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 11.8%. The pre - sale progress of new Brazilian crops is about 32%, slower than the same period last year. The USDA estimates that the Brazilian soybean production in the 25/26 season will reach 178 million tons, and the expected premium is facing selling pressure. As of January 28th, the sowing of Argentine 2025/26 soybeans was 99.5% complete, higher than 96.2% a week ago. Currently, 83.8% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, slightly lower than the previous report. S&P Global's estimated data shows that the U.S. soybean planting area will increase by 3.2 million acres to 84.5 million acres [8] - **Demand**: The self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit has turned positive, the pig inventory and weight are at a high level, and the capacity reduction is not obvious. The egg - laying poultry farming profit has recovered, and the speed of culling hens has slowed down. In the short term, the demand for soybean meal is expected to provide support. Under the expectation of capacity adjustment and policy control, the long - term demand for soybean meal is expected to shrink, and the soybean meal stocking by enterprises has ended. This week, the trading volume has decreased, and the delivery performance is good [8] - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are seasonally decreasing, but the current inventory is still at a high level; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8] 3.3 Spread and Other Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 60, and the spread of the main contract is 491. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium for 2025 shows different trends in different months, and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the RMB is 6.9284 [12] 3.4 Inventory Data - The inventory data includes the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills, the soybean inventory at Chinese ports, the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises, and the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills, with historical data trends presented [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of breaking away from traditional narratives and focusing on market signals and technical indicators to navigate volatile market conditions, particularly in the context of commodity trading [4][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, have created a complex environment characterized by simultaneous negotiation and confrontation, leading to heightened risks in the short term [9][10]. - The global competition for critical minerals has intensified, driven by energy transition needs, supply chain security concerns, and geopolitical tensions, making these resources crucial for national security and economic development [11][12]. Group 2: Commodity Trends - Different commodity sectors are experiencing divergent trends due to varying underlying drivers, with precious metals and certain industrial metals being influenced by global risk sentiment and structural demand, while sectors like black metals and traditional chemicals reflect domestic economic weaknesses [13]. - The article suggests that the market is no longer unified in its bullish or bearish narratives, as each commodity is priced based on its unique supply-demand dynamics, with macro factors serving as a backdrop [13]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - For investment strategies, the focus should be on right-side trading in resource-oriented metals and left-side positioning in commodities that are currently in a downtrend but are sensitive to macroeconomic policies, particularly in sectors like real estate and chemicals [14]. - Specific insights into the pig market indicate a potential price ceiling due to a large supply base, despite rising prices for piglets, suggesting caution in future price expectations [16]. - The article highlights that the recent performance of caustic soda is closely tied to liquid chlorine prices, which have not declined as expected, indicating ongoing supply pressures that may affect pricing dynamics [19][20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of quality enhancement actions to empower quality-driven development in ecological counties like Huoshan [1][2] - The company aims to transform ecological advantages into quality and development advantages, aligning with the goal of high-quality development in mountainous ecological counties [1] - The implementation of a comprehensive quality safety risk prevention strategy and innovative regulatory models is highlighted, including the adoption of "double random" cross-departmental collaborative supervision [1] Group 2 - The focus is on establishing quality innovation collectives for local specialties such as Huoshan Dendrobium and Huoshan Huangya, promoting strong enterprises and supply chains [1] - The creation of a public brand "Huo Goods Famous" for seven geographical landmark products is part of the strategy to enhance quality support and brand value [1] - The company is committed to developing a quality policy system and fostering inter-departmental collaboration to strengthen the quality-driven development model in Huoshan [2]

图说大宗 证券研究报告 2026.02.08 图说大宗：宏观情绪与基本面共振，金 银铜波动加剧 SAC 执证编号：S0080513070006 SFC CE Ref：BBU524 chaohui.guo@cicc.com.cn 郭朝辉 分析员 王炙鹿 分析员 陈雷 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523030003 zhilu.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524020004 lei.chen@cicc.com.cn 宏观回顾：国内内需仍偏弱，沃什难撼扩表 国内方面，1 月中采制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.3%，低于市场预期（Reuters 预测中值 50.0%；1 月非制造业商务活动指数环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.4%；综合 PMI 环比下降 0.9 个百分点至 49.8%，皆再度回到收缩区间。中金宏观组认为，季节性因素或对数据扰动较大，但除了季节性以外， 需求仍然弱于供给，两者缺口进一步扩大。结构上，消费品制造业和小型企业回落较多。制造业整体受 大宗商品价格上涨影响，原材料购进价格上升，但向下游传导能力仍受制于需求。建筑业受天气和季节 性因素影 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 PhillipCapital在一份报告中称，受芝加哥商品交易所隔夜豆油价格走强支撑，亚洲早盘棕榈油价格上 涨。该机构补充称，市场参与者正在等待将于周二晚些时候公布的Malaysian Palm Oil Board的关键行业 数据，以及正在举行的该国棕榈油大会的任何指引。PhillipCapital认为毛棕榈油期货的阻力位在每吨 4,350林吉特，支撑位在每吨4,090林吉特。马来西亚衍生品交易所4月交割的合约价格上涨5林吉特，至 每吨4,165林吉特。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The central government emphasizes comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity in the recently released No. 1 Central Document, indicating a shift in industry policy towards protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation [6][16] - The pig farming sector is experiencing a gradual recovery despite a 0.1% decline in the SW pig farming sector, with current market pressures expected to ease as production capacity is regulated [6][16] - The poultry sector faces ongoing challenges with high production capacity and weak consumption, but leading companies are likely to gain market share [18] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group, which aims to increase its dividend payout ratio and expand its market presence [10][20] - The pet industry is expected to see significant growth, with a projected market size exceeding 400 billion yuan by 2028, driven by changing consumer perceptions [51] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The pig price continues to decline, with a current price of 11.84 yuan/kg, and the industry is facing dual pressures of supply and demand [6][16] - The central government's policy shift aims to regulate the breeding stock and enhance market adaptability [6][16] - Companies with cost advantages and innovative models are expected to outperform [17] 2. Poultry - The poultry sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with broiler prices at 3.6 yuan/kg, down 5.2% week-on-week [18] - The impact of avian influenza in France may reduce the supply of imported breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices [18] - Integrated companies and those with contract farming models are likely to expand their market share [18] 3. Feed - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its clear long-term growth path and plans to increase dividend payouts [10][20] - The company aims for a global sales target of 100 million tons by 2050, with significant overseas market expansion [20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is projected to grow rapidly, with expectations of reaching a market size of over 400 billion yuan by 2028 [51] - Companies with strong domestic and international sales are recommended for long-term investment opportunities [21] 5. Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices have decreased by 1.5%, while corn prices have shown slight fluctuations [22] - The market is expected to remain oversupplied in the near term, with a focus on weather and import impacts [22]