美股科技板块正发出泡沫警告信号，估值和市场集中度均达到互联网泡沫破裂以来的最高水平。 彭博数据显示，美股TMT板块估值已达到2009年以来的新高，板块远期市盈率攀升至26.7倍，超过此前26.3倍的峰值水平。该估值较2015-19年均值16.9倍高 出8.7个标准差。相比之下，等权重标普500指数的市盈率仅为17.9倍，仍低于危机前峰值。 板块内部相关性也在上升，反映出系统性风险的积聚。TMT板块26周滚动配对相关性达到0.49，重新升至2010年以来的长期均值之上，较2024年低点0.18大 幅攀升。历史上，当市场遭遇压力时，TMT领域的股票往往呈现出更高的相关性，伴随着相关性攀升，市场往往经历股价调整（大约6个月内）。 剔除苹果、微软、英伟达、Alphabet和Meta等巨无霸股票后，TMT板块的估值溢价更加极端。该子板块市盈率已升至24.4倍的历史新高，较2015-19年均值 高出11.7个标准差。 这一估值水平甚至超过了2020年末21倍和2024年22倍的前期峰值。美股"七姐妹"目前占标普500指数市值的33.2%，但仅贡献2026年预期季度盈利的25%，显 示市值与盈利贡献的显著失衡。 伴随估值攀 ...

2025年8月7日港股创新药大跌，截至13:08，港股通科技ETF(159262)盘中深V反转上涨0.53%， 冲击4连 涨；盘中涨幅相比同类含医药的品种跑出超额收益。成分股英诺赛科领涨、高伟电子涨超10%，FIT HON TENG涨近7%，黑芝麻智能、舜宇光学科技等跟涨。 港股通科技ETF紧密跟踪恒生港股通科技主题指数，恒生港股通科技主题指数（「HSSCITI」）旨在反 映能通过港股通买卖，业务与科技主题相关的香港上市公司之表现。指数剔除了医药、汽车和家电，聚 焦TMT行业，科技属性更加纯正。 流动性方面，港股通科技ETF盘中换手6.11%，成交1.69亿元。拉长时间看，截至8月6日，港股通科技 ETF近1月日均成交2.99亿元。 规模方面，港股通科技ETF最新规模达27.45亿元，创成立以来新高。份额方面，港股通科技ETF近2周 份额增长5.62亿份，实现显著增长。资金流入方面，拉长时间看，港股通科技ETF近10个交易日内有7 日资金净流入，合计"吸金"7.61亿元。 数据显示，截至2025年8月6日，恒生港股通科技主题指数(HSSCITI)前十大权重股分别为快手- W(01024)、中芯国际(00981 ...

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI ) aka "Supermicro" reported its fiscal Q4 '25 earnings yesterday evening, and the stock quickly saw a 20% slide . Going into earnings, shares were in the $58 range, and now inI’m a retired Wall Street PM specializing in TMT; since kickstarting my career, I’ve spent over two decades in the market navigating the technology landscape, focusing on risk mitigation through the dot com bubble, credit default of ‘08, and, more recently, with the AI boom. In one word, what I’ ...

近期市场热点多聚焦于"反内卷"与基建板块，但科技主线作为长期政策支持的核心方向，其产业叙 事仍在持续强化。AI、机器人等前沿科技领域进展不断，技术突破与产业落地预期支撑下，科技板块 的配置价值依然坚实。 长城科技投资领域的基金经理们将努力挖掘科技创新浪潮下的投资机遇，力争做好"有时代感的投 资"，陪伴投资者向"新"而行。 廖瀚博：关注高低切机会 展望后市，我们认为短期内市场或由上行转向震荡行情，将关注高低切换的机会，需要重视低位板 块/个股的基本面变化或者预期变化。 陈良栋：挖掘AI细分支线机会 储雯玉：关注计算机、传媒、半导体等 我们认为在9月份之前市场不太会存在大的系统性风险，但如果市场过热，上行力量也会受到限 制，所以当前比较适合寻找结构性机会，比如进行板块间的高低切换，或等待高位板块的回调布局机 会。 具体到科技创新方向，由于部分科技热点板块已经接近或超过前期高点，市场也在酝酿高低切换， 比如近几个交易日PCB、光模块、稳定币、半导体制造等方向都有退潮迹象，而相对低位的AI应用、半 导体设计板块逐渐活跃。因此近期可重点关注计算机、传媒、半导体等板块。另外，三季度是传统消费 电子旺季，还可密切关注新产品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rebound, with both the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index turning positive, driven by significant inflows into the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology 30 ETF (520980) [1][3] Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology 30 ETF (520980) saw a nearly 1% increase, with trading volume exceeding 1.56 billion yuan, and has attracted over 1.2 billion yuan in the last 20 days, reaching a new high of nearly 2.5 billion yuan [1][3] - Major component stocks of the ETF mostly showed positive performance, with BYD Electronics rising over 7%, SMIC and UBTECH increasing over 2%, and Tencent Holdings up over 1% [3] Fund Inflows - Southbound capital inflows have surged, with net purchases exceeding 7.2 billion yuan as of 14:38, and a record net purchase of 23.426 billion HKD on August 5, marking the highest since April 10 [4] - Cumulatively, southbound capital net purchases have reached 884.382 billion HKD this year, significantly surpassing the total for the previous year [4] AI Industry Insights - The domestic artificial intelligence sector is benefiting from multiple favorable policies, including a 1 billion yuan special subsidy in Shanghai aimed at addressing challenges in AI application [5] - Recent policies are expected to enhance Shanghai's competitive edge in computing power and industry models, providing a template for other cities to transition from policy-driven to demand-driven AI development [5] Investment Strategy - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology 30 ETF (520980) focuses on the TMT sector, excluding pharmaceuticals, home appliances, and automobiles, making it a more concentrated investment in technology [5] - The ETF supports T+0 trading and does not occupy QDII quotas, making it an efficient choice for investors looking to engage in the Hong Kong tech sector [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese government is increasingly prioritizing "Artificial Intelligence+" in its policy framework, with significant implications for the TMT sector from March 2024 to July 2025 [1] - The TMT sector is expected to see substantial growth, particularly in hardware, with overseas computing-related components like PCBs and optical modules leading the market [1] - The application side of AI is currently lagging, but there are low fund positions in IT services and software development, indicating potential investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext AI ETF (159388) tracks the ChiNext AI Index (970070), which can experience daily fluctuations of up to 20% [1] - The index includes companies involved in AI technology development and application, covering sectors such as software and hardware R&D, and aims to reflect the overall development level and market performance of emerging tech companies in China [1] - The industry allocation of the index is primarily concentrated in information technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [1]

在中银证券首席策略分析师王君看来，8月投资应"轻指数，重结构"，在资金面支撑及基本面弱修复的 背景下，市场下行风险可控，节奏上或仍是"进二退一"，市场指数中枢有望逐级抬升。就风格而言，科 技成长板块有望迎来反弹机会。 青睐TMT、军工、医药等板块 "中上旬指数可能会呈现震荡格局，中下旬重新回归此前的上行趋势。"谈及对A股8月行情的展望，招 商证券首席策略分析师张夏如是说。 在经历小幅调整后，8月4日-5日，A股市场连续反弹。截至8月5日收盘，A股三大股指集体收涨，其中 上证指数重新站上3600点关口，并创出今年以来收盘新高。从成交情况看，A股近几个交易日的日成交 额均在1.5万亿元以上，市场交投活跃态势仍在延续。 在张夏看来，8月进入上市公司中报业绩集中披露期，部分涨幅比较大、偏主题概念的股票面临一定调 整压力，但8月中旬后市场风险偏好有望提升，叠加盈利效应积累后场外增量资金持续流入，最终A股 在8月有望走出"先抑后扬"走势，指数创下今年以来新高的可能性较大。 国泰海通首席策略分析师方奕同样看好A股股指后市续创今年以来新高，对投资者而言，市场出现调整 应"逆势"提高仓位："'反内卷'背后是经济治理思路的转变， ...

● 本报记者胡雨 在经历小幅调整后，8月4日-5日，A股市场连续反弹。截至8月5日收盘，A股三大股指集体收涨，其中 上证指数重新站上3600点关口，并创出今年以来收盘新高。从成交情况看，A股近几个交易日的日成交 额均在1.5万亿元以上，市场交投活跃态势仍在延续。 在张夏看来，8月进入上市公司中报业绩集中披露期，部分涨幅比较大、偏主题概念的股票面临一定调 整压力，但8月中旬后市场风险偏好有望提升，叠加盈利效应积累后场外增量资金持续流入，最终A股 在8月有望走出"先抑后扬"走势，指数创下今年以来新高的可能性较大。 国泰海通首席策略分析师方奕同样看好A股股指后市续创今年以来新高，对投资者而言，市场出现调整 应"逆势"提高仓位："'反内卷'背后是经济治理思路的转变，政策持续优化和推进为远期企业净资产收益 率(ROE)企稳提供条件，也为股市打开空间；资本市场改革极大提高了中国股市的可投资性，稳股市机 制建设也有力提高了中国股市的韧性，并降低风险溢价。" 在中银证券（601696）首席策略分析师王君看来，8月投资应"轻指数，重结构"，在资金面支撑及基本 面弱修复的背景下，市场下行风险可控，节奏上或仍是"进二退一"，市场指 ...

Group 1 - The decision-making departments have signaled ample policy space for the second half of the year, emphasizing the importance of policy rhythm and precision in implementation [1] - The central bank may utilize tools such as relending and rediscounting for more targeted liquidity support to stabilize the real economy, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment expected to maintain high growth rates [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is becoming a new focus, aiming to prevent low-level repeated construction and regional vicious competition, which will have a profound impact on the competitive landscape and profit prospects of related industries [2] Group 2 - The short-term outlook suggests that abundant policy space, particularly in fiscal and monetary support, will boost market expectations, while supply-side optimization driven by "anti-involution" policies may improve the supply-demand balance in certain industries [3] - The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle not yet over, allowing for a stable trend of liquidity easing domestically [3] - Key sectors expected to benefit include technology growth, "anti-involution" related industries, and consumer sectors, with specific opportunities in TMT, machinery, military, new energy, pharmaceuticals, coal, steel, building materials, automotive, chemicals, logistics, semiconductors, robotics, artificial intelligence, home appliances, consumer electronics, retail, and new consumption sectors such as social services, food, and beauty care [3]

Macro Environment - The overall macro environment is showing an upward trend [1] - There is a phase of abundant monetary conditions and the beginning of wide credit [2] - Global economic policy uncertainty is decreasing [3] Investment Direction - The risk appetite for incremental funds is leading to a favorable outlook for equity assets, which are currently at a relative high in terms of cost-effectiveness compared to fixed income assets [4] - The top five industries in terms of recent economic performance are computer, non-ferrous metals, steel, light manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals [6] - Industries with room for growth include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), finance, and consumer sectors [4][6] Market Dynamics - The public equity fund positions have not yet reached historical highs, indicating potential for further growth [4] - Increased risk appetite is expected to elevate the performance of growth stocks, particularly in innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and robotics [6] - Key industries mentioned by the National Development and Reform Commission, such as steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, and petrochemicals, are expected to see significant improvements in fundamentals [6] Capital Expenditure Trends - Domestic and international tech giants are experiencing a surge in capital expenditure, particularly in AI infrastructure, while traditional mobile communication infrastructure spending is stabilizing [8] ETF Strategies - The company suggests a focus on leading ETFs and a grid trading strategy that targets products with sufficient volatility and relatively large capacity [10] - A balanced allocation strategy across broad-based, Smart Beta, industry, and cross-border ETFs is recommended [10]