汽车和汽车零部件行业周报 20250608 乘用车需求向好 智驾下沉与高端跃迁共振 2025 年 06 月 08 日 ➢ 本周数据：2025 年 5 月第 5 周（5.26-6.1）乘用车销量 46.6 万辆，同比 +18.3%，环比+16.7%；新能源乘用车销量 24.7 万辆，同比+30.1%，环比 +11.6%；新能源渗透率 53.1%，环比-2.4pct。 ➢ 本周行情：汽车板块本周表现弱于市场。本周（6 月 3 日-6 月 6 日）A 股汽 车板块下跌 0.01%，在申万子行业中排名第 25 位，表现弱于沪深 300（0.96%）。 细分板块中，摩托车及其他、汽车服务、汽车零部件分别上涨 2.66%、0.92%、 0.48%，乘用车、商用载客车、商用载货车分别下跌 0.12%、2.67%、5.93%。 ➢ 本周观点：本月建议关注核心组合【吉利汽车、比亚迪、小鹏汽车、小米集 团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ➢ 智驾下沉与高端跃迁共振，看好智驾加速落地。2025 年 5 月 28 日小鹏 M03 加推 Max 版（含 502km/600km 续航）及 Plus 版，上市 1 小时 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive and automotive parts industry, particularly focusing on intelligent driving and high-end vehicle transitions [6]. Core Viewpoints - The demand for passenger vehicles is improving, with a notable increase in sales and a strong performance from new energy vehicles. The intelligent driving sector is expected to accelerate its adoption, driven by competitive pricing and technological advancements [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of strong product cycles and recommends focusing on companies with robust fundamentals and intelligent driving capabilities [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report emphasizes the synergy between the down-market penetration of intelligent driving and the leap to high-end models, predicting a rapid adoption of intelligent driving technologies [2][9]. - It suggests that companies like Geely, BYD, and Xpeng are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [3][10]. 2. Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed the market, with a slight decline of 0.01% in the A-share automotive sector during the week of June 3-6, 2025, ranking 25th among sub-industries [26]. 3. Sales Data - In the fifth week of May 2025, passenger vehicle sales reached 466,000 units, marking an 18.3% year-on-year increase and a 16.7% month-on-month increase. New energy vehicle penetration was at 53.1% [3][10]. 4. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product cycles and intelligent driving capabilities, including Geely, BYD, Xpeng, and Li Auto [3][10]. - For the parts sector, it suggests investing in companies like Top Group and New Spring Co., which are well-positioned in the new energy vehicle supply chain [4][12]. 5. Intelligent Driving and Electric Vehicles - The report anticipates a significant shift in the intelligent driving landscape, with companies like BYD leading the charge in technology and market penetration [13]. - It highlights the importance of the new energy vehicle supply chain and suggests that companies with self-research capabilities will benefit from the evolving market dynamics [12][13]. 6. Motorcycles and Heavy Trucks - The motorcycle market is experiencing growth, particularly in the mid-to-large displacement segment, with companies like Chunfeng Power being recommended [17][19]. - The heavy truck market is expected to recover due to new policies supporting the replacement of older vehicles, with recommendations for companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [20][21]. 7. Tire Industry - The tire industry is projected to benefit from ongoing globalization and demand recovery, with recommendations for leading companies like Sailun Tire and high-growth firms like Senqilin [22][25].

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold will experience range-bound fluctuations, while copper and oil are expected to trend upwards [1][13]. - Uncertainties in geopolitical negotiations, such as those involving the US and Iran, are contributing to the rebound in oil prices from their lows [13]. Group 2: Domestic Demand - New home sales, second-hand home sales, and passenger car sales have all declined, while the average monthly sales price of home appliances has shown a mixed trend with more increases than decreases year-on-year [3]. - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic travel and spending increased by 5.7% and 5.9% year-on-year, respectively, with box office revenue reaching 460 million yuan, a 33.3% increase [4]. Group 3: External Demand - Export growth has generally slowed, with June showing a decline in high-frequency export indicators and shipping rates [6]. - Container arrivals from China to the US have shifted from an increase to a decrease, indicating reduced transshipment activity [7]. - South Korea's exports fell in May, particularly in steel and petroleum products [8]. Group 4: Production - Demand for steel is weak due to the off-season, leading to a decrease in production rates and prices [10]. - As summer approaches, coal and electricity demand may increase, although recent weather conditions have led to a temporary decline in coal consumption [11]. Group 5: Price Trends - Prices for major commodities have generally rebounded, while domestic prices for steel, glass, coal, and cement continue to decline [12]. - The article notes that the market's concerns over copper tariffs are supporting copper prices as they trend upwards [13].

Group 1 - Baiyunshan received drug registration certificate for Tadalafil tablets (2.5mg, 5mg) from the National Medical Products Administration, indicating its entry into the erectile dysfunction treatment market [1] - Huayin Power plans to invest approximately 1.398 billion yuan in three renewable energy projects with a total installed capacity of 230 MW [2] - GAC Group reported a 24.8% year-on-year decline in May automobile sales, with total sales of 117,700 units [3] Group 2 - Honghui Fruits and Vegetables announced a potential change in control due to share transfer negotiations, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock and convertible bonds [4] - Fuyuan Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received a drug registration certificate for Bromhexine Hydrochloride oral solution, aimed at treating respiratory diseases [5][6] - Jianghan New Materials plans to repurchase shares worth 200 million to 400 million yuan, with a maximum price of 30 yuan per share [7][8] Group 3 - Sinan Navigation received an administrative regulatory decision from the Shanghai Securities Regulatory Bureau due to multiple issues in its 2024 annual report [9][10] - Hesheng Co. received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a stock issuance to specific investors [11] - Daqin Railway reported a 1.85% year-on-year decrease in cargo transportation volume in May, totaling 32.96 million tons [13] Group 4 - Ningbo Construction's subsidiary won a design and construction project with a bid of 787 million yuan [14] - Yuehongyuan A announced the termination of a major asset restructuring plan due to failure to reach an agreement on key terms [15][16] - Mingyang Smart Energy reached a 190 million yuan repurchase agreement with Haiji New Energy [18] Group 5 - CNE Group's subsidiary plans to reduce registered capital from 430 million yuan to 330 million yuan [19] - ST Baili received an administrative penalty for failing to disclose non-operating fund occupation matters, resulting in a fine of 4 million yuan [21] - Baichuan Co. completed the repurchase of a 7.14% stake in its subsidiary for 50 million yuan [22] Group 6 - Dongrui Co. reported May sales of 155,400 pigs, generating revenue of 203 million yuan, a decrease of 8.77% month-on-month [25][26] - Pengding Holdings reported a 22.43% year-on-year increase in May consolidated revenue, totaling 2.598 billion yuan [27] - Dabeinong reported May sales of 727,600 pigs, with total revenue of 1.248 billion yuan [28] Group 7 - Lihua Co. reported a 4.77% year-on-year decrease in May chicken sales revenue, totaling 1.118 billion yuan [29][30] - Jindan Technology plans to use up to 300 million yuan of idle funds for entrusted wealth management [31] - Youxunda won a project from the State Grid worth approximately 176 million yuan [33][34] Group 8 - Shenglan Co. received approval for its convertible bond issuance from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [35][36] - Jingfang Technology's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 2% of the company's shares [37] - Shiji Information's subsidiary signed a significant contract with Marriott for cloud services [39] Group 9 - Northeast Securities' subsidiary plans to terminate its listing on the New Third Board [40] - Yaji International's supervisor is under investigation for insider trading [42][43] - Yian Technology signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Shenzhen Hive Interconnect Technology [44] Group 10 - Jinyu Group's subsidiary acquired a real estate project for 3.364 billion yuan [46][47] - Kaiweite's major shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 3% of the company's shares [48] - Ningbo Energy's subsidiary plans to publicly transfer fixed assets valued at approximately 17.4372 million yuan [49]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming "2025 June Passenger Car Market Analysis Release Conference" organized by the China Automobile Circulation Association, focusing on the dynamics of the national passenger car market, industry policies, pricing, used cars, new energy vehicles, commercial vehicles, and the Shanghai automotive market [2][3]. Group 1: Conference Details - The conference will be held online and aims to provide timely insights into the passenger car market [2]. - The report will be published on June 9, 2025, at 16:00, through the WeChat subscription account (cpca2024) and the official website (www.cpcaauto.com) [3][4]. Group 2: Report Content - The report will include various analyses, such as: 1) May 2025 Shanghai automobile market registration data [4]. 2) April 2025 price index report [4]. 3) Analysis of national policies encouraging the construction of new energy vehicle charging and swapping infrastructure [4]. 4) Insights on CATL's battery swapping 2.0 [4]. 5) April 2025 new energy vehicle industry monthly report [4]. 6) May 2025 light commercial vehicle market forecast [4]. 7) April 2025 national used car market in-depth analysis [4]. 8) April 2025 Beijing automobile market analysis [4]. 9) May 2025 national passenger car market analysis [4].

Group 1: Passenger Vehicles - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 55% by 2025, with multiple hybrid models launching in the second half of the year [1] - The retail and export of passenger vehicles in mainland China are projected to grow by 2.9% and 10% year-on-year, respectively, in 2025 [1] - The price of intelligent driving models is anticipated to drop below 200,000 RMB, with domestic software like Momenta leading the market [1] - Increased competition in the automotive market is expected in the second half of the year, with a focus on companies like BYD and XPeng Motors [1] Group 2: Heavy Trucks - Heavy truck sales in China are projected to reach 950,000 units (including exports) in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] - The market performance for heavy trucks has been relatively flat, with cumulative sales of 350,000 units in the first four months of 2025 [2] - Local policies are expected to boost market conditions in the second half of the year, enhancing the market share of leading companies [2] Group 3: Two-Wheelers - The new national standards and trade-in policies are expected to support a recovery in the two-wheeler market, with sales projected to reach 56 million units in 2025 [2] - The new standards raise production technology requirements and emphasize the importance of smart technology in the industry [2] - Industry leader Yadea is favored for its strong market position [2] Group 4: Batteries - The trend is shifting towards range-extending large batteries, with a focus on commercial vehicle batteries [2] - The recent phase of tariff agreements between China and the U.S. introduces uncertainties, while South Korean companies are increasing their presence in the North American market [2] - CATL is recommended for its technological advancements and overseas expansion [2] Group 5: Robotics - The industrialization of robotics is approaching, with companies like Tesla and UBTECH announcing mass production plans [2] - Chinese companies are expected to benefit from cost advantages and technological accumulation [2] - Attention is drawn to core components with low domestic production rates and high value proportions, such as planetary roller screws and six-dimensional force sensors [2]

Group 1 - China will approve compliant rare earth export license applications and urges the US to lift all trade restrictions, including the 301 tariffs [2][2] - The Ministry of Commerce will actively cooperate with relevant departments to address the "involution" competition in the automotive industry, promoting fair market order [2][2] - The National Bureau of Statistics announced the establishment of 10 national data element comprehensive pilot zones to enhance the integration of the real economy and digital economy [2][2] Group 2 - In May, retail sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.056 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30%, with a market penetration rate of 53.5% [2][2] - The Hong Kong stock market's total market capitalization reached HKD 40.9 trillion by the end of May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24% [2][2] - A total of 439 A-share companies conducted buybacks in the past month, with a total amount of CNY 26.689 billion, a year-on-year increase of 51.83% [2][2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months, enhancing policy transparency [2][2] - The China Securities Index Company will officially launch the CSI Haitong Asset Management Technology Theme Bond Index and the CSI Haitong Asset Management Green Theme Bond Index [2][2] - The A-share listed companies are entering a concentrated phase for profit distribution, with nearly 1,300 companies executing their 2024 annual distribution plans [2][2]

Group 1 - The core index, the China Securities Hong Kong and US Listed Global Intelligent Driving Theme Index, opened at 6479.62 points and has seen a 5.17% increase over the past month, a 1.15% increase over the past three months, but a 5.35% decline year-to-date [1] - The index comprises 50 listed companies involved in intelligent driving sectors such as perception, positioning, decision-making, planning, control execution, and vehicle networking, reflecting the overall performance of these companies in the Hong Kong and US markets [1][2] - The index is based on a starting point of 1000.0 points as of December 30, 2016 [1] Group 2 - The top ten holdings of the index include NVIDIA Corp (10.74%), Li Auto-W (9.89%), Tesla Motors Inc (8.95%), Xpeng Motors-W (8.55%), Marvell Technology Group Ltd (6.51%), Rivian Automotive Inc. (5.15%), STMicroelectronics NV (3.37%), Analog Devices Inc (3.14%), Texas Instruments (3.11%), and Lucid Group Inc (3.02%) [2] - The market distribution of the index holdings shows that 60.74% are from the Nasdaq Global Select Market, 28.50% from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, 5.60% from the Nasdaq Capital Market, and 5.16% from the New York Stock Exchange [2] - In terms of industry representation, passenger vehicles account for 22.53%, digital media for 2.98%, optical optoelectronics for 2.66%, and automotive parts and tires for 0.33% [2] Group 3 - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [3] - Weight factors are adjusted in accordance with the sample changes, and generally remain fixed until the next scheduled adjustment [3] - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as removing samples that are delisted or handling mergers, acquisitions, or spin-offs according to maintenance guidelines [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 81.15 [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter a strong new car cycle in 2025, with a sales target of 500,000 to 600,000 units for the year, and aims to achieve profitability [2][13][15]. - The company has reported a significant year-on-year sales increase of 161% for the first five months of 2025, reaching 173,658 units [2][15]. - The gross margin has reached historical highs of 13.3% and 14.9% in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 respectively, driven by scale effects, sales structure optimization, and cost management [2][14][15]. Summary by Sections Sales and Growth Strategy - The company plans to launch new models across four platforms (A, B, C, D) from 2025 to 2026, which will support sales growth [2][16][18]. - The sales network is expanding rapidly, with 756 stores covering 279 cities as of Q1 2025, aiming to exceed 1,000 stores by the end of the year [3][17]. Global Expansion and Strategic Partnerships - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, with a target of over 550 overseas channels and an export goal of 50,000 to 60,000 units in 2025 [4][20][21]. - Strategic partnerships are being formed, including collaborations with Stellantis and Peugeot Citroën, which are expected to contribute to revenue and margin growth [4][22][25]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 68.71 billion, RMB 91.40 billion, and RMB 116.66 billion respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive in 2025 [5][23]. - The company is projected to achieve a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.5x in 2025, reflecting a premium valuation due to its strong new car cycle and strategic initiatives [5][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][31]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant year-on-year sales growth of 331% in Q1 2025, with a total sales volume of 94,000 vehicles [2][20]. - The revenue for Q1 2025 reached 15.81 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.5% [7]. - The launch of new models, including the MONA M03, is expected to drive sales further, with the new version receiving over 12,566 orders within the first hour of its release [3][27]. - The company maintains its profit forecast, projecting revenues of 88.5 billion, 118.1 billion, and 130.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, while expecting net losses of 1.58 billion, 2.659 billion, and 4.682 billion yuan for the same years [31]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 15.6%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -4.2%, improving by 16.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][11]. - The automotive business gross margin was 10.5%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased sales and reduced costs [11]. - The service and other income gross margin was 66.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.5% due to higher-margin technical service revenues [11]. Sales and Delivery Guidance - The company expects Q2 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 102,000 and 108,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 238% to 258% [20]. - Cumulative total deliveries from April to May 2025 reached 68,600 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 251% [2][20]. Model Launches and Market Strategy - The 2025 model of the X9 and the new version of the MONA M03 were launched, featuring advanced AI driving capabilities [3][24]. - The MONA M03 is positioned to penetrate the market for high-end intelligent driving vehicles priced under 200,000 yuan, enhancing the company's competitive edge [31].