数据来源：国家统计局 2025年6月，全国花生仁（中等）集贸市场价格当期值为13.99元/公斤，比2025年5月上涨0.14元/公斤， 环比增长1%，增幅增加1.1个百分点，同比下滑4.6%，增幅增加1.4个百分点。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国花生行业市场动态分析及投资战略研判报告》 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles highlights the positive impact of nighttime sports events on urban consumption, creating a beneficial cycle of "events + consumption" [1][2][27] - Nighttime sports activities, such as football and basketball games, have become new focal points for urban consumption, attracting significant participation and social interaction [2][27] - Data indicates that 60% of urban consumption in China occurs at night, with sports events driving traffic to surrounding dining and shopping sectors [1][2] Group 2 - In Harbin, the organization of six fluorescent night runs this summer attracted over a thousand participants each, boosting local tourism and dining sectors [3] - A newly transformed central green sports park in Shijiazhuang has become a vibrant hub, receiving an average of 15,000 visitors daily since its opening [4] - The "sea football field" in Weihai attracted over 50,000 visitors this summer, leading to a 30% increase in revenue for local dining and entertainment businesses [7] Group 3 - Water sports in Ankang have seen around a thousand participants daily, contributing to a 20% increase in related consumption, including training and equipment sales [8] - The outdoor public skateboarding venue in Fuxin has become a new highlight for urban development, linking various activities and enhancing the night economy [9] - The "Zhejiang BA" city competition has generated significant local engagement, with nearly 200 stalls promoting local food, resulting in a transaction volume of 174 million yuan [15][16] Group 4 - The "Gansu Super League" has attracted 385,700 spectators in its first five rounds, significantly boosting local consumption during match days [26] - The integration of sports events with local tourism initiatives has created a ripple effect, enhancing the economic vitality of cities in Jiangxi [25][26] - The articles emphasize the need for richer nighttime sports consumption scenarios to promote healthier and more vibrant urban nightlife [27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of a plan by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and ten other departments to promote agricultural product consumption through 23 specific measures aimed at optimizing supply and enhancing demand [1] - The article highlights the significant regional differences in natural environments and climate conditions across China, which contribute to a rich variety of agricultural products, facilitating inter-regional and international trade [1] - There is a growing consumer demand for high-quality agricultural products, which aligns with the trend towards quality, personalization, and diversity in consumption [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the importance of innovative cooperation mechanisms to strengthen supply-demand connections, noting that past reliance on market factors led to issues such as poor information exchange [2] - It provides statistics indicating that from 2021 to 2024, over 4.2 trillion yuan and 1.6 trillion yuan worth of agricultural products were procured and sold from western and poverty-stricken regions, respectively, through collaborative efforts [2] - The article suggests that successful cooperation models should be summarized and replicated to explore broader market-sharing mechanisms [2] Group 3 - The optimization of logistics networks is crucial for enhancing the efficiency of agricultural product circulation, with examples of successful cold chain logistics ensuring product freshness over long distances [3] - The article emphasizes the role of rural e-commerce in boosting agricultural sales and the need for continued investment in urban-rural trade networks to address logistics shortcomings [3] - It also suggests expanding consumption scenarios beyond traditional markets to include various promotional activities and events that can enhance consumer experience and drive sales [3] Group 4 - Promoting agricultural product consumption is identified as an effective means to increase farmers' income and drive the upgrade of industrial and supply chains, contributing to high-quality agricultural development [4] - The article asserts that creating a robust cross-regional agricultural product sales channel will energize the market and inject strong momentum into economic and social development [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Global sugar stocks are increasing due to more new - sugar supply from Brazil, but high domestic sugar sales - to - production ratio provides support. International raw sugar prices are dragged down by speculative selling, while Pakistan's purchase of 200,000 tons of sugar improves demand expectations. In the domestic market, Mid - Autumn Festival stocking boosts spot sales, but the pressure on processing sugar mills to sell and increased imports create negative factors. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Cotton**: The current low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices. With the expected tightening of global inventory in the new season, domestic and international cotton prices may be strong in the short term. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, downstream stocking willingness may improve, and cotton prices may rise with the recovery of demand [13]. - **Jujube**: New - season grey jujube production is expected to decline compared to last year and may be lower than normal, but the decline rate is uncertain. As the festival season approaches, downstream stocking and the sentiment of production reduction may drive up jujube prices in the short term. However, due to high old - jujube inventory and unclear production, it is not advisable to chase high prices [18]. - **Apple**: The sales of apples are limited by the impact of seasonal fruits. In Shandong, apple packaging is restricted by the busy farming season, and in Shaanxi, the supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi with most secondary - producing areas cleared of inventory. New - season paper - bag Gala apples are on the market with good prices [23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 15, 2025, SR01 closed at 5664 with a daily increase of 0.09% and a weekly increase of 1.63%. Other contracts also showed different price changes and spreads [4]. - **Basis**: On August 14, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 321, with a daily increase of 8 and a weekly decrease of 64. Different locations and contracts had different basis values [8]. - **Import Prices**: On August 15, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4552, with a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly increase of 169. The out - of - quota price was 5786, with a daily decrease of 32 and a weekly increase of 222 [11]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On August 15, 2025, Cotton 01 closed at 14120, down 35 or 0.25%. Other cotton and cotton yarn contracts also had price changes [14]. - **Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1096, up 37. Different cotton contract spreads and the spread between cotton and yarn also showed changes [15]. Jujube - **Futures Month - spreads**: The report presents the historical trends of jujube futures month - spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) from 2022 - 2025 [19]. Apple - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 15, 2025, AP01 closed at 8028, with a daily increase of 0.55% and a weekly increase of 1.13%. Spot prices in different regions remained stable, and there were also changes in futures spreads, basis, and profit [24]. - **Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of national, Shaanxi, and Shandong apple cold - storage inventories from 2022 - 2025 [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The 24th China Changchun International Agricultural and Food Expo opened on August 15 in Changchun, Jilin Province, showcasing modern agricultural achievements under the theme of "Technology Agriculture, Green Agriculture, Quality Agriculture, Brand Agriculture" [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The expo features eight major exhibition areas, including high-quality agricultural products and food, high-tech facilities, planting demonstrations, creative agriculture, premium livestock, agricultural machinery, modern seed industry, and agricultural culture [1] - Over 1,000 domestic specialty agricultural product companies participated, along with more than 260 domestic and foreign agricultural machinery companies, over 70 livestock and feed veterinary drug companies, and 30 agricultural input companies [1] Group 2: Highlights of Exhibits - The Jilin Province exhibition hall showcased high-quality agricultural products such as Jilin rice and fresh corn, attracting numerous visitors [1] - The "Ji" brand products from over 200 high-quality grain enterprises demonstrated the latest achievements in branding grain from black soil [1] - The agricultural machinery equipment area displayed the latest technological equipment from hundreds of domestic and foreign agricultural machinery companies, including unmanned plant protection machines, unmanned tractors, and large intelligent harvesters [1]

农林牧渔 农林牧渔 2025 年 08 月 15 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《出猪节奏导致 7 月猪价涨幅不及预 期，后市猪价不悲观—行业点评报告》 -2025.8.14 《政策强催化与基本面共振渐成，生 猪低位积极布局 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.8.10 《集团降重叠加二育出栏，全国猪价 承压—行业周报》-2025.8.3 8 月 USDA 农产品报告上调全球玉米、水稻产量，下 调大豆、小麦产量 ——行业点评报告 陈雪丽（分析师） 朱本伦（联系人） chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 玉米：2025/2026 年全球产量、消费量环比上调 （1）USDA 上调全球玉米产量。USDA（美国农业部）发布 8 月全球农产品 2025/2026 年供需预测报告，与 7 月预测报告相比，8 月报告上调玉米产量，主 要系美国、乌克兰玉米收获面积扩大。（2）供需情况：产量方面，2025/2026 年 全球玉米产量环比调增 2492 万吨至 12.89 亿吨。贸易方面，2025/2026 年出口量 环比调增 505 万吨至 2.01 亿吨。消费量 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the corn and corn starch markets remains weak, and it is recommended to mainly engage in short - side trading [9][13]. - For corn, the USDA's August supply - demand report is bearish, with increased U.S. corn production and ending stocks. In the domestic market, the continuous auction of imported corn, the upcoming listing of new - season corn, and weak market consumption have put pressure on the price [8][9]. - For corn starch, the resumption of operations by previously - overhauled enterprises has increased supply, while downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in an obvious oversupply situation [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Corn**: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed lower this week at 2190 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA's report is bearish, and the domestic market is affected by factors such as corn auctions and new - season corn listing, with weak spot prices. It is recommended to mainly engage in short - side trading [9]. - **Corn Starch**: The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed slightly lower after narrow - range fluctuations at 2522 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. Supply pressure has increased due to the resumption of operations, and demand is weak. Inventory has increased, and it is recommended to mainly engage in short - side trading [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The November contract of corn futures closed lower with a total position of 828,457 lots, an increase of 236,354 lots from last week. The November contract of corn starch futures closed lower after narrow - range fluctuations with a total position of 138,621 lots, an increase of 31,700 lots from last week [18]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 75,073, and the net short position increased compared to last week; the top 20 net position of starch futures was - 16,392, and the net short position also increased [25]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 132,529, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 7,450 [31]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of August 14, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active November contract and the spot average price was + 204 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,950 yuan/ton, remaining stable this week. The basis between the November contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 328 yuan/ton [36][40]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread Changes**: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 3 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period; the 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 28 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [46]. - **Futures Spread Changes**: The spread between the November contracts of starch and corn was 332 yuan/ton. In the 33rd week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [55]. - **Substitute Spread Changes**: As of August 14, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,438.11 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 43.99 yuan/ton. In the 33rd week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 138 yuan/ton, widening by 21 yuan/ton compared to last week [59]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Corn Supply - Side**: As of August 8, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 748,000 tons, a decrease of 144,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 3,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.774 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 131,000 tons; the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 247,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. In June 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 160,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 760,000 tons or 82.61%. As of August 14, the average inventory days of feed enterprises across the country was 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.73%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.07% [50][68][72]. - **Corn Demand - Side**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; the breeding sow inventory was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.7% of the normal reserve of 39 million. As of August 8, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 45.13 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 134.14 yuan per head. As of August 14, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 63 yuan/ton. As of August 15, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 607 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 503 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 186 yuan/ton [76][80][84]. - **Corn Starch Supply - Side**: As of August 13, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 3.402 million tons, a decrease of 6.62%. From August 7 to August 13, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 576,000 tons, an increase of 15,500 tons from last week; the national corn starch production was 289,200 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 55.9%, an increase of 2.07% from last week. As of August 13, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.332 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%, a month - on - month increase of 1.60%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.33% [88][92]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of August 15, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 10.35%, an increase of 0.67% from 9.68% last week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated up and down, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The market sentiment of red dates has improved, and the inventory reduction process is progressing well. The new season's crops are in the critical fruit - setting period, with an expected production decline of 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, and an estimated new - season production of 56 - 62 million tons. Overall, the improving trading atmosphere and expected reduction in new - season production support the upward trend of red date futures prices. Technically, the red date 2601 contract is in an upward channel, and it is recommended to conduct long - biased trading [8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Weekly Highlights Summary** - **Market Trend**: This week, the price of the main red date contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased by 0.04% [8][11]. - **Inventory Status**: As of the 32nd week, the physical inventory of 36 red date sample points was 9,784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from last week, a 2.54% week - on - week decrease, and a 72.62% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Production Forecast**: The new - season production is expected to decrease by 5 - 10% compared to 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an estimated production of 56 - 62 million tons [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to conduct long - biased trading, with the support level for the red date 2601 contract at 11,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Future Trading Reminders**: Weather and consumption are the key factors to watch [8]. **Futures and Spot Market Conditions** - **Futures Price**: The price of the main red date contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased by 0.04% this week [8][11]. - **Futures Position**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in red date futures was - 16,035 lots [15]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of this week, the number of red date warehouse receipts was 9,214 [17]. - **Futures Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the 2605 and 2601 contracts of red date futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 140 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey dates and the main red date futures contract was - 1,095 yuan/ton [22]. - **Purchase Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the unified purchase prices of red dates in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar were 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6 yuan/kg respectively [25]. - **First - Grade Spot Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the wholesale prices of first - grade grey dates in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 4.60 yuan/jin and 4.75 yuan/jin respectively [29]. - **Extra - Grade Spot Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the wholesale prices of extra - grade grey dates in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 10.45 yuan/kg and 10.5 yuan/kg respectively [33]. **Industrial Chain Conditions** - **Supply - Inventory**: As of the 33rd week, the physical inventory of 36 red date sample points was 9,686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons from last week, a 1.00% week - on - week decrease, and a 79.94% year - on - year increase [38]. - **Supply - Production**: The 2024/25 production season of red dates is expected to see a recovery in production as the crops are growing well [43]. - **Demand - Export**: In June 2025, China's red date exports were 1,765,107 kilograms, a 20.82% month - on - month decrease, and the cumulative exports from January to June were 17,115,674 kilograms, an 11.50% month - on - month increase [46]. - **Demand - Trading**: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang Red Date Good Brand had no trading volume [50]. **Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation** - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for red dates this week was presented, but no specific data was provided [52]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of HaoXiangNi was presented, but no specific data was provided [54].

研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.15」 棉花（纱）市场周报 供需皆弱缺乏指引，关注美农供需报告 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情分析： 本周郑棉主力2601合约上涨，周度涨幅约2.32%。棉纱期货2511合约上涨2.96%。 行情展望：国内方面，棉花处于去库存状态，新棉上市前供应偏紧，现货价格和基 差表现坚挺。需求端，纺织行业消费淡季，内地纺企已无利润，整体开机率持续下 降，企业对原材料的采购以刚需为主，寄望"金九银十"带来需求改善契机。新作 方面，2025年中国棉花总体种植面积增长，关注天气对新作生长的影响。总体来说， 国内旧作供应偏紧，支撑棉花价格波动，不过下游需求疲软，将限制上方空间，预 计维持高位震荡行情。操作上，建议暂时观望。 未来交易提示： 3 1、关注外棉价格变化 2、宏观因素 3、贸易政策 4、天气因素 「 期现市场情况」 美棉市场 图1、CFTC美棉净持仓与ICE美棉价格走势 来源 ...

| 农产品早报 | | --- | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/15 玉米/淀粉 玉米 淀粉 日期 长春 锦州 潍坊 蛇口 基差 贸易利润 进口盈亏 黑龙江 潍坊 基差 加工利润 2025/08/08 2230 2250 2448 2390 -5 10 373 2900 2980 213 -70 2025/08/11 2230 2250 2440 2390 -12 10 380 2900 2980 213 -48 2025/08/12 2230 2250 2434 2390 -10 10 372 2900 2980 210 -48 2025/08/13 2230 2250 2428 2390 -29 5 413 2900 2980 204 -38 2025/08/14 2230 2270 2428 2410 -11 5 425 2900 2980 207 -31 变化 0 20 0 20 18 0 12 0 0 3 7 【行情分析】： 棉花棉纱 棉花 棉纱 日期 3128 进口M级美棉 CotlookA(F E) 进口利润 仓单+预报 越南纱 现货 越南纱进口利 润 32S纺纱利润 2025/08/0 ...