投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F03142221 投资咨询证号：Z0021750 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：pengyy@qh168.com.cn 2025年7月10日 研究所晨会 ...

从兰州街头摊贩叫卖的泰国金枕榴莲，到马来西亚市场热销的甘肃礼县柑橘，中国西北内陆省份甘肃与 东盟国家在农产品贸易、中医药、文旅等多个领域碰撞出火花。 6日至10日，第31届中国兰州投资贸易洽谈会举办。在主宾国印尼展销区，手工艺品和咖啡畅销；泰国 展区的清凉油、青草药，柬埔寨的风味虾片，受到消费者追捧…… "我们根据双方消费习惯挑选适销商品，甘肃苹果、高原夏菜、中药材在东盟很有潜力。"甘肃驻马来西 亚商务代表处首席代表马玉田9日接受中新社记者采访时说，通过"甘香丝路，食联南洋"等推介会，已 有多项农贸协议落地，"环球撮合荟"马来西亚国别馆更成为甘肃农产品的海外展示窗口。 在泰国，甘肃驻泰国商务代表处首席代表虎炎正推动中医药文化落地生根。据她介绍，首批21名泰国学 员已毕业，甘肃中医药大学(曼谷)敦煌医学科在泰国设立，两位甘肃中医专家即将赴泰开展临床教学， 让针灸等中医疗法惠及更多当地民众。 柬埔寨甘肃商会会长火照国则忙着为家乡特产"牵线"。"甘肃的洋葱、宽粉、中草药在东南亚很受欢 迎，莫高窟与吴哥窟的文旅对接也大有可为。"他说，希望推动双方在农业、文旅领域深度合作。 另悉，2024年甘肃入境游客同比增长137% ...

丨证券研究报告丨 戴清 胡飞 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 市场策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 复盘供给侧改革："反内卷"如何催生产能出清 主升浪 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期政策再次提及要规范企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出，我们复盘历史类似的政 策推动供给端出清案例，结果发现，在政策推动下的供给端出清，第一阶段的行情起于政策预 期，后续主升浪则需行业格局改善配合。落地到本轮"反内卷"政策，策略应对上，关注两条 主线，一是本身供给端出清时间比较久，供需格局有望改善即自然出清的行业；二是或受益于 政策预期推动加速出清的行业。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary2] 政策信号明确：规范企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出 政策信号明确，整治"内卷式"竞争。近年来，市场竞争"内卷化"之所以愈演愈烈，其核心 症结在于许多行业长期累积的产能过剩。当供给远大于需求，存量市场的博弈便不可避免地异 化为内卷。这种恶性竞争不 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton futures prices are likely to oscillate, and domestic cotton prices are supported in the short - term but face pressure in the long - term [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, suppressing ICE raw sugar prices in the long - run. Brazilian raw sugar may rebound in the short - term, and Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited [4][5] - The pulp supply pressure persists, and the demand is weak. The pulp price may remain at the bottom in the short - term [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,175 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,193 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. As of July 5, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 7.3%, up 2.3 percentage points week - on - week, 5% slower than last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market is supply - loose. US cotton futures prices are expected to oscillate. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, supporting prices in the short - term. However, the new cotton production is likely to increase, and the demand in the off - season is weak. In the long - term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral to bearish strategy. Recommend shorting distant - month contracts on rallies [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5747 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5865 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 67.73 tons of sugar and molasses in the first week of July, a 34.63% decrease from last year [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar prices are under long - term pressure due to the increasing production cycle. However, there may be a short - term rebound. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm due to low inventory, but the upside is limited by potential imports [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Expect the sugar price to oscillate weakly in the third quarter, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5086 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp market prices showed mixed trends [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: The wood pulp import increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic production capacity is expected to increase. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains. Demand: Affected by policies and the off - season, the demand is weak, and the improvement in the second half of the year is limited [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom in the short - term [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Ningxia goji berry e-commerce market is expected to capture 61.3% of the national market share in 2024, reflecting strong market demand and a prosperous industry ecosystem [1][2] - In 2024, the national goji berry e-commerce retail sales are projected to reach 2.49 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, showcasing the industry's high-quality development opportunities [1] - Ningxia's goji berry e-commerce retail sales are anticipated to reach 1.53 billion RMB in 2024, an increase of 8.4 percentage points year-on-year, with retail volume expected to hit 23.69 million units, growing by 6.1% [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the goji berry dry fruit market is relatively mature, with price indices across different regions showing high similarity due to the transparency and immediacy of e-commerce channels [2] - Ningxia's goji berry raw juice price index is the only one maintaining continuous positive growth, demonstrating its advantages in deep processing, demand insight, and brand premium [2] - Goji berries hold significant cultural, medicinal, and economic value in China, becoming an important economic crop in regions like Ningxia, Gansu, and Qinghai, with e-commerce sales emerging as a major sales channel [2]

表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | 뷰 | E | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期景 | DCE豆油主力 | 7月9日 | 元/吨 | 7920.00 | 7946.00 | -26.00 | -0.33% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 7月9日 | 元/吨 | 8678.00 | 8644.00 | 34.00 | 0.39% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 7月9日 | 元/呼 | 9510.00 | 9598.00 | -88.00 | -0.92% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 7月8日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1017.75 | 1020.75 | -3.00 | -0.29% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 7月8日 | 美分/磅 | 53.97 | 23.85 | 0.12 | 0.22% | | | MDE棕榈油主力 | 7月8日 | 令吉/吨 | 4148.00 | 4071.00 | 77. ...

Core Insights - The "China Goji Berry E-commerce Price Index Annual Report (2024-2025)" was officially released, indicating a positive trend in the development of China's goji berry e-commerce industry [1] - Key indicators such as retail sales, retail volume, transaction average price, and e-commerce entity scale all showed significant growth, with Ningxia's goji berry retail sales reaching 1.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, accounting for 61.3% of the national market share [1] Industry Development - The report highlights that the goji berry industry is becoming a crucial economic crop in regions like Ningxia, Gansu, and Qinghai, contributing to rural revitalization and ecological, green, and prosperous development [1] - Ningxia's success in the e-commerce market is attributed to its comprehensive innovation across the entire industry chain, including deep processing, demand insights, and brand reputation, particularly in high-end products like raw juice and freeze-dried goods [1] Data Monitoring and Standardization - A goji berry e-commerce price database covering major production areas such as Ningxia, Qinghai, Gansu, and Xinjiang has been established, filling a gap in pricing benchmarks within the goji berry e-commerce sector [1] - The establishment of this database supports the industry's upgrade towards standardization and digitalization, contributing to a healthier market ecosystem [1]

国产大豆主力合约减仓,价格止跌反弹。本周东北地区大部气温偏高，降水偏多，上壤墒情适宜。预计未来一周，大豆产区天 气对作物生长有利。短期政策端在进行购销双向交易，交易成交情况好。进口大豆方面未来一周美豆产区天气利于作物生长。 短期持续关注天气和政策的指引。 【大豆&豆粕】 美国大豆优良率为668.与市场预期持平，优良宰属于正常水平。天气上，未来两周大部分美国大豆产区降雨量小幅波动，温度咯 低于常值。特朗普政府已对包括日韩在内的多个国家发出最新的税率威胁，范围为25%至40%，执行时间推迟至8月1日，并强调 不会再次推迟。今日连抬继续震荡，国内油厂周压榨量保持高位，豆粕库存上升。中美贸易上的不确定性因素依旧较多，美国 天气暂时未发生恶劣变化，对未来的上涨还有一定的想象空间，大连豆粕行情目前先以震荡对待。 | | | | VY V SDIC FUIURES | | 2025年07月09日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 显一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕櫚 ...

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农产品期权 2025-07-09 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品有所转弱，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖延续偏弱， 棉花温和上涨，谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （ ...