中信建投投行部门前债承销部总监房蓓蓓因在路劲境内债发行及后续"出货"过程中收取返费，被黑龙江 齐齐哈尔市龙沙区法院一审认定构成受贿罪、涉案金额逾540万元并判处有期徒刑10年6个月。（财新） ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：何俊熹 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：何俊熹 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 ...

编辑 |苏琦 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 美联储的政策动向一直是黄金市场的最重要风向标 文|《财经》特约撰稿人 金焱 发自华盛顿 经历前期短暂的震荡整理后，黄金市场再度走出强势单边行情，向历史高位发起新一轮冲击。12月22 日，国际金价率先发力，现货黄金盘中首次突破4400美元/盎司整数关口，刷新历史纪录，年内累计涨 幅进一步扩大。亚市早盘，现货黄金再度大幅攀升，金价刚刚触及4484.31美元/盎司，创下历史新高， 金价日内飙升逾40美元。黄金价格已是今年第50天刷新纪录。 过去一周，地缘政治紧张局势上升进一步放大了黄金的避险吸引力，尤其是在委内瑞拉：美国封锁油 轮，并加大对马杜罗（Nicolás Maduro）总统政府的施压力度。 2025年1月，黄金还在2614美元盎司左右。今年黄金年内涨幅接近70%，势将创下1979年以来的最大年 度涨幅。然而，在摩根大通分析师看来，金价未来一年仍有逾10%的上涨空间。 美元走弱、美国利率下行，以及经济和地缘政治不确定性，传统上都是推动金价上涨的积极因素，这些 因素都在本轮金价的上涨行情中发挥了作用。摩根大通指出，关税不确定 ...

（央视财经《第一时间》）美国彭博社报道，地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场预期美联储进一步降息是黄 金价格飙升的主要原因。据交易员预计，一系列美国经济数据上周公布后，美联储将在2026年降息两 次。与此同时，美国总统特朗普一直主张采取更为宽松的货币政策。利率下行通常会给不用支付利息的 贵金属提供支撑。 近几周来，地缘政治持续紧张同样增强黄金和白银的避险吸引力。彭博社22日预期，黄金和白银都将迎 来自1979年以来最强劲年度涨幅。受各国央行增持以及资金流入ETF推动，金价今年已飙升约三分之 二。数据显示，黄金支持的ETF已连续5周资金流入增加。世界黄金协会的数据表明，除5月外，今年这 些基金的总持仓量逐月增加。 除央行外，投资者同样在金价上涨中发挥重要作用。受"贬值交易"推动，也就是出于对主权债券及其计 价货币价值的担忧，投资者纷纷撤离这些资产。美国《华尔街日报》10月报道，担忧美元等货币前景的 投资者正大举买入黄金等替代性资产。美国投行高盛本月18日发布的研报预期，到2026年年底，金价将 涨至每盎司4900美元。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：孙艺璇 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resurgence of the "Great Debasement Trade" as gold prices soar to historical highs, exceeding $4,400 per ounce with a year-to-date increase of 68% [1] - Silver prices have also risen significantly, matching gold's year-to-date returns, indicating a broader trend in precious metals [1] - Robin Brooks, a senior economist at the Brookings Institution, attributes the surge in gold prices to recent Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over "debt monetization," where central banks buy government bonds to increase inflation and manage debt [1] Group 2 - Brooks notes that the effects of the "debasement trade" are extending beyond precious metals, with currencies from low-debt G10 countries like the Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc showing positive correlation with gold and silver prices [2] - The strengthening of currencies from low-debt sovereign nations is seen as a result of the debasement trade, despite the historical volatility of the Swedish Krona [2] - Although the US dollar has performed strongly against a weak Japanese Yen, it masks the overall weakness of the dollar against a basket of currencies [2]

"怎样在债务重组中，平衡好市场化与社会责任？" "金融机构如何走出'舒适区'，锻长板、补短板破解结构性失衡？" …… 近日，中金公司党委副书记、总裁王曙光做客人民网访谈时表示，"十四五"时期，我国资本市场改革纵 深推进，金融与实体经济联系更加紧密。同时，传统金融服务的"尺子"，已难以丈量产业迭代发展 的"需求"。金融从业机构要提升运营效率与市场竞争力，在助力实体经济特别是培育新质生产力方面发 力，并积极做好海外业务布局。 "如何评估企业的技术价值与成长潜力？" 王曙光说，中金公司将科技创新作为服务国家战略的核心方向。除了直接融资支持外，还通过资源对 接、战略咨询等增值服务，助力科创企业成长。 当前，科创企业普遍存在技术迭代快、商业模式新、风险不确定等现象，传统的企业价值评估体系难以 准确衡量其技术价值与成长潜力。这导致资本与科创企业对接效率不高，制约了企业的发展速度。 "针对这一痛点，我们构建了科创企业服务与评估体系。"王曙光说，评估科创企业需兼顾合规性与成长 性，关注企业合规、诚信与内控，聚焦赛道潜力、竞争优势、壁垒构建与生态融入。在此基础上，通过 资本投入实现全链条支持，解决金融机构对科创企业价值评估不精 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs plans to expand its acquisition and investment scale in Japan's growing M&A market by approximately 800 billion yen (about 5.1 billion USD) over the next decade, focusing on mid-sized companies [1] - The firm is targeting companies involved in management buyouts, subsidiary sales, and succession planning, as global institutional investors show strong demand for the Japanese market [1] - The investment pace is currently two to three times faster than before, with a balanced supply-demand relationship between investors and companies seeking financing [1] Group 2 - By 2025, the transaction volume involving Japanese companies is expected to soar to a historical high of around 350 billion USD, driven by corporate governance reforms aimed at enhancing shareholder returns [1] - Goldman Sachs is primarily interested in mid-sized companies valued between 30 billion and 300 billion yen, which often lack the resources for overseas expansion or M&A [1] - The firm has already begun such investments, including a 200 billion yen acquisition of Nippo Corp. in collaboration with Eneos Holdings Inc. and a management buyout of Nihon Housing for approximately 94 billion yen [1][4] Group 3 - Healthcare is another key focus area, with Kakehashi Inc. raising about 14 billion yen from Goldman Sachs and existing shareholders to provide software data to pharmacies [4] - The industrial sector is also a priority, encompassing a wide range of industries, including Nippo and Nihon Housing, with companies like Raksul Inc. announcing a management buyout for 120 billion yen [4] - Goldman Sachs had not previously entered the consumer goods sector until acquiring Burger King Japan for about 70 billion yen from Affinity Equity Partners [4] Group 4 - Since the COVID-19 pandemic, fast-food chains like Burger King have experienced rapid growth, particularly in the hamburger segment [5] - Due to language barriers and differences in business practices and regulatory environments, overseas private equity funds require time and resources to establish teams and invest directly in Japan [5] - Many investors find it reasonable to entrust funds to firms like Goldman Sachs that have established teams and performance records in Japan [5]

Core Insights - 2025 is anticipated to be a strong year for IPOs and M&A transactions, with optimism from Wall Street that this growth momentum will continue into the new year [1][3]. M&A Market Performance - The total announced M&A transaction value in 2025 reached $4.8 trillion, marking the highest since 2021 and the second-highest in the past decade [8]. - There were 166 M&A deals exceeding $5 billion, the highest number since 2021, although the total number of deals was the lowest in at least ten years [8]. - The technology sector dominated the M&A market with a transaction value of $1 trillion, accounting for over 20% of the global total, significantly outpacing the healthcare sector [8]. - The resurgence of leveraged buyouts is a key indicator of the M&A market's recovery, with private equity transaction volume reaching $1 trillion, the highest since 2021 [8][11]. - The overall market environment is favorable for continued M&A activity, driven by a need for scale and a more lenient regulatory stance from the Trump administration compared to the Biden administration [12]. IPO Market Performance - In 2025, 1,372 companies successfully went public, raising a total of $170.6 billion, the best performance since 2022, but still significantly lower than the $606.4 billion raised in 2021 [13][16]. - The technology sector was the leading force in the IPO market, representing 29% of the global IPO market, with notable listings from companies like CoreWeave and Figma [16]. - The largest IPO of 2025 was from Medline, a medical supplies provider, raising nearly $6.3 billion, indicating a broader acceptance of various business models in the market [16]. Market Outlook for 2026 - There is a general optimism among investment bankers regarding the market performance in the first half of 2026, with expectations that it will likely continue the strong activity seen in the latter half of 2025 [17][18]. - Communication with clients and the number of ongoing projects for 2026 are at high levels, suggesting a robust pipeline for future transactions [18].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the global market in 2026 will experience a "Game of Ice and Fire," characterized by robust growth, declining inflation, and Federal Reserve rate cuts on one hand, and overheated asset valuations, particularly in AI, on the other hand, leading to increased volatility [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The combination of steady global growth and non-recessionary rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is expected to benefit global stock markets and emerging market assets [4]. - Goldman Sachs holds a more optimistic view on the U.S. economy, forecasting a 2.5% year-on-year GDP growth in Q4 2026, significantly above the market's implied expectation of about 1.7% [5]. - The report anticipates that 2026 will mark the end of the high inflation period that began in late 2021, driven by the easing of tariff impacts, productivity gains from AI, and continued low-cost goods supply from Asia [7]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - Despite a general trend towards easing due to declining inflation, the rate cut paths in 2026 will vary significantly among central banks, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Norges Bank expected to have more room for rate cuts [9][10]. - Many high-rate emerging market economies are also expected to significantly lower policy rates [9]. Group 3: AI and Market Dynamics - The AI trend will remain a focal point in 2026, with productivity benefits just beginning to materialize, but market valuations have already significantly outpaced macro fundamentals [11]. - The reliance on debt financing for data center construction may render the credit market more vulnerable, potentially leading to increased stock volatility and widening credit spreads [11]. Group 4: Currency and Trade - The Chinese yuan is expected to continue its gradual appreciation trend, with the trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in November 2025, indicating a level of undervaluation comparable to the mid-2000s [12]. - The foreign exchange market in 2026 is anticipated to exhibit more cyclical characteristics, with G10 currencies and certain emerging market currencies likely to benefit from stronger-than-expected growth in the U.S., China, and other emerging markets [15]. Group 5: Emerging Markets and Investment Strategy - Following a strong performance in 2025, emerging market assets are expected to deliver "good" rather than "great" returns in 2026, prompting a shift in investment strategy from tech-sensitive markets to those driven by domestic demand, such as South Africa, India, and Brazil [18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of risk management in the post-cycle phase, highlighting potential downturn risks from a deteriorating U.S. labor market and upside risks from economic overheating [19]. Group 6: Risk Management and Hedging - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios and utilize tools such as interest rates, foreign exchange, gold, and equity volatility products to seek protection against potential risks [20].

个问,局盈匹期将末米12个月美元兄人民巾汇举日 标上修至6.85。他的预测也和部分中国学家及前央 行官员呼吁"人民币应走强"立场对比鲜明。 Schenker表示,维持汇率强势会对中国出口商及整 体稳定性产生连锁冲击,因会推高中国商品对外价 格,上月一项关键民间制造业指标大幅下滑已显现 压力。 【12月22日顶尖汇率预测人士：人民币升破"1美元兑7元"涨势难持久】顶尖汇率预测人士指出，人民币 若升破"1美元兑7元"关键关卡，涨势或难持久，原因包括中国制造商承压、外资流入疲弱。Prestige Economics总裁Jason Schenker称，未来约六个月内，人民币有机会短暂跨越该门槛，之后将回吐部分升 幅，预计至2026年底汇价约为1美元兑7.03元。Schenker在今年第三季彭博在岸美元兑人民币汇率分析师 评比中排第一。Schenker已将11月预估的明年底美元兑人民币汇率7.05下修。他还指出，人民币走强对 化解中国贸易紧张局势战略价值有限。Schenker看法与多家全球投资银行偏多预测不同，高盛近期将未 来12个月美元兑人民币汇率目标上修至6.85。他的预测也和部分中国学家及前央行官员呼吁"人民币应 ...