Report Overview - The report is the Shanghai Copper Industry Daily Report dated July 23, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated weakly, with an increase in open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index rebounded slightly but remained in the negative range. The domestic supply of copper may increase steadily and slightly, while demand is temporarily weak due to the seasonal consumption off - season. However, due to the strengthening of macro - policy benefits, the industry outlook is gradually being repaired. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 79,590 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,887 dollars/ton, down 32.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest in Shanghai copper increased by 6,169 to 172,895 hands, while the top 20 long - short positions decreased by 915 to 668 hands. LME copper inventory increased by 2,775 tons to 124,850 tons, and the LME copper cancelled warrants decreased by 325 tons to 12,250 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory increased by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,856 tons to 15,535 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 79,790 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 79,805 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The CU main contract basis was 200 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 months spread was - 68.24 dollars/ton, down 1.28 dollars. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price was 65 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the Yangshan copper average premium was 48.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC for domestic copper smelters increased by 0.34 to - 43.45 dollars/kiloton. The prices of copper concentrates in Jiangxi and Yunnan increased by 70 yuan/metal ton to 70,030 yuan/metal ton and 70,730 yuan/metal ton respectively. The processing fees for blister copper in the South and North remained unchanged at 800 yuan/ton and 750 yuan/ton respectively [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined copper was 130.2 million tons, up 4.8 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper increased by 0.43 million tons to 41.82 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton to 55,740 yuan/ton, and the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai remained unchanged at 68,100 yuan/ton [2] Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products was 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative real - estate development investment was 46,657.56 billion yuan, up 10,423.72 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 11.59%, up 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.03%, up 0.01%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility was 13.12%, up 0.0072. The at - the - money option long - short ratio was 1.46, down 0.0735 [2] Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the new round of Sino - US negotiations may discuss China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, expressing the hope that the US side would work with China to promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations. Fed Governor Bowman emphasized the Fed's independence in monetary policy and the responsibility for transparency and accountability. At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The balance of real - estate development loans was 13.81 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The balance of individual housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported that the global refined copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons in May, compared with a shortage of 80,000 tons in April. In the first five months of this year, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 272,000 tons, similar to the surplus of 273,000 tons in the same period last year [2]

有色金属周报(电解铜) 美日达成贸易协议关注中美下周谈判， 关注国内"反内卷"政策后续执行情况 2025年7月23日 宏源期货研究所 王文虎 （F03087656，Z0019472） 有色金属周报(电解铜) 国内社会库存初现下降COMEX库存仍在累积， 传统消费淡季来临下游需求疲软 电解铜 宏观：美国参议院通过稳定币相关法案且将准许养老基金等投资黄金、数字货币等资产；进口关税推升商品价格致美国6 月消费端通胀CPI年率有所升高，但因美国6月生产端通胀PPI年率为2.3%低于预期和前值，叠加鲍威尔提前离职预期增大美联 储降息预期，使美联储9/12月降息概率有所升高。 上游：山西运城垣曲县五龙实业旗下洛家河铜矿发生炮烟中毒事故致三人死亡，五矿资源MMG旗下Las Bambas和Hudbay 旗下Constancia因非正规矿工暂停封路抗议至7月18日，加拿大Manitoba 北部发生野火使Hudbay Minerals 已经暂停Snow Lake运营和勘探，紫金矿业旗下卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿西侧已于6月初复产但东侧排水或持续至9月（25年计划矿产铜由52-58降 至37-42万吨），铜陵有色旗下位于厄瓜多尔的米拉多铜 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-23 市场整体情绪偏乐观 铜价震荡上行 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-22，沪铜主力合约开于 79720元/吨，收于 79740元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.05%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 79,830元/吨，收于 79,970 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.40%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日国内电解铜现货市场呈现结构性紧张，主流品牌对2508合约升水报160-320元/吨，均价240元/ 吨，较昨日上涨20元/吨。现货价格区间79630-79880元/吨，沪铜早盘自79760元/吨回落至79560元/吨，隔月价差维 持Contango结构。市场呈现明显分化：主流交单品牌升水高企，但常州等地实际成交品牌升水仅60-80元/吨。尽管 冶炼厂已向上海地区发货，但优质平水铜和好铜供应仍然偏紧，品牌价差将持续，建议下游企业按需采购。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，近日，美国财长贝森特称，8月1日对所有国家来说都是一个"较为硬性的最后期限"。欧盟贸易 谈判与俄乌制裁谈判分开进行，而与日本的谈判进展非常顺利。不过近期市场表现似乎并为受到太大影响，甚至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to significantly boost demand for copper and aluminum, leading to a surge in related sectors such as hydropower, cement, infrastructure, and steel [1][3][9] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector in the Hong Kong stock market saw a substantial increase, with a rise of 3.90% on July 21, 2023, and continued gains of 3.82% the following day [1][3] - Key stocks in the sector, such as China Aluminum and Jiangxi Copper, experienced notable price increases, with China Aluminum rising 6.33% to 6.05 HKD and Jiangxi Copper increasing 5.09% to 16.10 HKD [1] Group 2: Project Impact - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project has a total investment of 1.2 trillion RMB and is expected to create significant demand for construction materials, particularly in the cement and steel industries during the construction phase [3][7] - The project will also drive demand for copper and aluminum due to the need for equipment and transmission cables, with an anticipated annual power generation exceeding 300 billion kWh [7][9] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metal sector is projected to outperform the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.2% from early 2025 to June 30, 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to be supported by the ongoing transition in the economy, with copper prices being influenced by macroeconomic conditions and the anticipated increase in demand from the renewable energy sector [5][6][7] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on companies directly benefiting from the hydropower project, such as those involved in cable and special copper material manufacturing [9] - Long-term investment opportunities may arise in regions with abundant hydropower resources, particularly in electrolytic aluminum and copper smelting projects, as well as in supporting electric grid companies [9]

Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, the copper market experienced a rebound in prices due to a combination of policy support, tight supply, and positive demand expectations, with domestic 1 electrolytic copper prices reaching 79,630 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.09% over three trading days, challenging the 80,000 yuan mark [1] Group 1: Driving Factors - Driving Factor 1: Domestic Policy Support and Macroeconomic Recovery - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans to promote growth in key industries, including non-ferrous metals, which positively influenced market sentiment, leading to a 0.73% increase in copper futures [3] - Despite the short-term challenges in policy implementation, the announcement provided confidence to copper smelting enterprises facing low profits due to ongoing low processing fees [3] - Driving Factor 2: Tight Supply and Increasing Supply-Demand Imbalance - The current tightness in the copper market is attributed to both primary and recycled copper shortages, with the price difference between refined and recycled copper narrowing significantly [4] - The decline in copper prices has pressured processing profits, leading to some processing plants halting operations, while the tight supply of raw materials continues to challenge smelting operations [4] - Driving Factor 3: Positive Demand Outlook - The announcement of a major hydropower project in China is expected to boost demand in the cable industry, although it may not have an immediate impact on copper rod purchases [5] - The home appliance sector is experiencing a short-term recovery due to government subsidies and high temperatures driving air conditioning demand, increasing trading activity in the copper tube market [5] Group 2: Market Outlook - Supply Side: The implementation of a 50% copper tariff by the U.S. is expected to reduce the outflow of domestic copper, but the ongoing challenges in the copper concentrate market will continue to test smelting operations [7] - Demand Side: Anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and promoting consumption may lead to a recovery in demand [7] - Overall, the copper price is expected to remain supported at the bottom, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations, with spot prices expected to fluctuate between 79,000 and 81,000 yuan/ton [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, with the approaching August 1st tariff deadline, there is intense tariff - related game - playing among countries. The US - EU trade negotiation is bleak, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The "firing Powell" incident has increased market uncertainty. In the US stock earnings season, the market risk preference rises, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields weaken, boosting the prices of gold, copper, etc. [2] - Domestically, the expectation of supply - side optimization boosts the market. The stock market and domestic - demand - priced commodities show positive sentiment. The A - share market has a large - volume increase, and domestic - demand varieties such as coking coal, industrial silicon, and glass rise significantly. [2] - For different commodities, most are expected to show a certain degree of strength in the short - term, but are also affected by various factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. [3][6][7][8][10][11][13][15][17][19][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The August 1st tariff deadline is approaching. The US emphasizes "quality first", and many countries are in intense tariff - related games. The US - EU trade negotiation is on the verge of collapse, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The "firing Powell" incident has not subsided, increasing political pressure on the Fed. During the US stock earnings season, the market risk preference rises, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields weaken, boosting the prices of gold and copper. [2] - Domestic: The expectation of supply - side optimization boosts the market. The stock market and domestic - demand - priced commodities show positive sentiment. The A - share market has a large - volume increase, and domestic - demand varieties such as coking coal, industrial silicon, and glass rise significantly. The risk preference of the stock and commodity markets continues to increase, and the Treasury bond yield rises. [2] 3.2 Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.55% to $3410.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.02% to $39.24 per ounce. The uncertainty of the US reaching a trade agreement before August 1st, the weakening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and the brewing of EU counter - measures against US tariffs have all boosted precious metal prices. The market's speculation about the possible replacement of Fed Chairman Powell and the reshaping of the Fed has also increased market tension. It is expected that precious metal prices will fluctuate strongly in the near future. [3][4] 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to rebound, and LME copper rose strongly above $9800. The spot market of electrolytic copper had good transactions, and downstream buyers replenished stocks at low prices. Domestically, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce an action plan to support key industrial sectors, which will significantly boost metal demand. Abroad, SolGold is accelerating the development of its copper - gold project in Ecuador. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short - term, affected by factors such as global trade situations and supply - demand relationships. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose. The overseas market is cautious before the US tariff negotiation deadline, and the domestic market interprets the news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as a new round of supply - side reform, which has led to a significant increase in Shanghai aluminum prices. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has slightly increased, and the spot transaction maintains a high premium. It is expected that aluminum prices will run strongly in the short - term. [8][10] 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures rose significantly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's requirements for structural adjustment and elimination of backward production capacity in ten major industries have increased the market's expectation of supply - side interference, driving up the alumina futures price. It is expected that alumina will continue to run strongly in the short - term. [11] 3.6 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The prospect of the US - EU trade agreement is bleak, the domestic policy of stabilizing growth is expected to ferment, and the LME still has a risk of short - squeezing. The domestic consumption off - season has certain resilience, and the pattern of weak supply and demand has not been effectively reflected in inventory. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [12][13] 3.7 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. After the current - month delivery, the inventory continued to increase, and the downstream battery consumption has not improved significantly, which has dragged down the lead price. However, the cost - side support is effective, and the policy of stabilizing growth in the non - ferrous metal industry has a positive impact on the lead price. In the short - term, the lead price will stabilize and fluctuate. [14][15] 3.8 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated strongly. The positive market atmosphere boosts the tin price. Fundamentally, the resumption of work in some smelters has slightly increased the operating rate of refined tin, but overall it remains at a low level. The downstream is in the consumption off - season, and the inventory has slightly increased. Although the tin price runs strongly following the non - ferrous metal sector in the short - term, the expected improvement in the raw material end may limit its upward space. [16][17] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose significantly. The supply - side has shrunk significantly, and the new policy has boosted the spot market. The Xinjiang region's operating rate has dropped below 50%, and the operating rate in the Sichuan - Yunnan region has limited recovery during the wet season. The demand side is affected by factors such as cost and market acceptance. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [18][19] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated, and the spot price rose slightly. The policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to promote the stable growth of ten major industries has boosted the lithium price. Although the fundamental situation of weak supply and demand has not been alleviated, the lithium price is currently dominated by policies. However, the special cost - ladder structure of lithium carbonate may limit the intensity of policy support, and the increase in lithium price may be less than that of other related varieties. [20] 3.11 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price fluctuated strongly. The domestic policy of promoting the stable growth of the non - ferrous metal industry has boosted the nickel price. Although the nickel - iron spot market is still cold, the price of pure nickel has risen under policy drive, and the market for nickel sulfate has recovered. It is expected that the nickel price will strengthen under policy drive in the short - term. [22][23] 3.12 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil fluctuated strongly. Geopolitical factors, such as the possible instability of the Iran - Israel cease - fire agreement, may have an impact on oil prices. In the short - term, there is no obvious driving force in the oil market. Potential geopolitical risks may support oil prices, but the upward space is limited, and the oil market will fluctuate. [24][25] 3.13 Steel Products (Screw - Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated strongly. At the steel enterprise forum, steel enterprises reached a consensus on strengthening self - discipline and controlling production. The spot market has an increase in both volume and price, and the trade sentiment is good. The macro - level large - scale infrastructure policy expectation boosts the capital market sentiment. The supply - side contraction offsets the unfavorable situation of off - season demand. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation. [26] 3.14 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures showed a strong trend. The arrival of iron ore at ports has decreased, and the shipment has remained stable. The macro - level anti - involution policy improves the fundamental expectation, and the large - scale infrastructure policy expectation boosts the capital market sentiment. The profitability of steel mills has recovered, and the demand for iron ore has increased. The supply pressure has been relieved. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [27] 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the prices of bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. The US soybean good - rate has decreased, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas is changeable. The domestic bean meal inventory continues to increase. The progress of US trade negotiations is slow, and the external market fluctuates and closes down. It is expected that the domestic bean meal will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term. [28][29] 3.16 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil futures price fell. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in the first and middle of July, but the export demand decreased month - on - month, and the domestic palm oil inventory continued to increase. The increase in profit - taking behavior of long - position funds has led to a decline in the domestic market after a rise. In the short - term, palm oil may fluctuate strongly. [30][31]

关于云南铜业股份有限公司发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金 暨关联交易在充分尽职调查和内核的基础上出具的承诺 中信建投证券股份有限公司 （五）本独立财务顾问在与上市公司接触至出具此独立财务顾问意见期间， 已采取严格的保密措施，严格执行风险控制和内部隔离制度，不存在内幕交易、 操纵市场和证券欺诈的问题。 （以下无正文） （本页无正文，为《中信建投证券股份有限公司关于云南铜业股份有限公司发行 股份购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易在充分尽职调查和内核的基础上出具 的承诺》之签字盖章页） 财务顾问主办人签名： 杨慧泽 王明超 耿贤桀 中信建投证券股份有限公司 中信建投证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本独立财务顾问"）接受云南铜业 股份有限公司（以下简称"云南铜业"、"上市公司"）的委托，担任云南铜业发 行股份购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易的独立财务顾问，本独立财务顾问在 充分尽职调查和内核的基础上，作出如下承诺： （一）本独立财务顾问已按照规定履行尽职调查义务，有充分理由确信所发 表的专业意见与上市公司和交易对方披露的文件内容不存在实质性差异。 （二）本独立财务顾问已对上市公司和交易对方披露的文件进行充分核查， 确信披露文 ...

本次交易第一次董事会决议公告日为 2025 年 5 月 24 日，第二次董事会决 议公告日为 2025 年 7 月 21 日，上述日期前连续二十个交易日上市公司股票收 盘总市值均超过人民币 100 亿元。 二、最近两年交易所对上市公司信息披露质量评价为 A 根据深圳证券交易所公布的上市公司信息披露工作评价结果，截至本核查 意见出具日，深圳证券交易所尚未公布上市公司 2024 年度信息披露考评结果， 云南铜业最近两年（2022 年度和 2023 年度）信息披露考评结果均为 A。 三、本次交易不构成重大资产重组 根据《重组管理办法》第十四条规定："上市公司在十二个月内连续对同 一或者相关资产进行购买、出售的，以其累计数分别计算相应数额。已按照本 办法的规定编制并披露重大资产重组报告书的资产交易行为，无须纳入累计计 算的范围。中国证监会对本办法第十三条第一款规定的重大资产重组的累计期 限和范围另有规定的，从其规定。交易标的资产属于同一交易方所有或者控制， 或者属于相同或者相近的业务范围，或者中国证监会认定的其他情形下，可以 认定为同一或者相关资产。" 中信建投证券股份有限公司 关于本次交易适用简易审核程序的独立财务 ...

签署日期：二〇二五年七月 信息披露义务人声明 一、信息披露义务人依据《中华人民共和国证券法》 （以下简称"《证券法》"）、 《上市公司收购管理办法》（以下简称"《收购办法》"）、《公开发行证券的 公司信息披露内容与格式准则第 15 号——权益变动报告书》（以下简称"《准 则 15 号》"）及其他相关法律、法规和部门规章的有关规定编写本报告书。 二、信息披露义务人签署本报告已获得必要的授权和批准，其履行亦不违反 信息披露义务人章程或内部规则中的任何条款，或与之相冲突。 上市公司：云南铜业股份有限公司 上市地点：深圳证券交易所 股票简称：云南铜业 股票代码：000878.SZ 信息披露义务人一：云南铜业（集团）有限公司 住所：云南省昆明市盘龙区华云路 1 号 通讯地址：云南省昆明市盘龙区华云路 1 号 信息披露义务人二：中国铝业集团有限公司 住所：北京市海淀区西直门北大街 62 号 18、22、28 层 通讯地址：北京市海淀区西直门北大街 62 号 信息披露义务人三：中国铜业有限公司 住所：云南省昆明市盘龙区华云路 1 号 通讯地址：云南省昆明市盘龙区华云路 1 号 股份权益变动性质：因信息披露义务人认购上市公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper Co., Ltd. plans to issue shares to acquire 40% of Liangshan Mining Co., Ltd. from Yunnan Copper Group and raise matching funds through share issuance to China Aluminum Corporation and China Copper Corporation, which is deemed not to constitute a major asset restructuring under relevant regulations [1][2][25]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The board meeting approved the proposal with 7 votes in favor, 0 against, and 0 abstentions [2][3]. - The transaction involves issuing shares to acquire 40% equity in Liangshan Mining, with a transaction price of 2,323.51 million yuan [3][11]. - The shares will be issued at a price of 9.31 yuan per share, based on the average trading price over the previous 20 trading days [6][14]. Group 2: Financial Aspects - The total amount of matching funds raised is 1,500 million yuan, with China Aluminum Corporation subscribing for 1,000 million yuan and China Copper Corporation for 500 million yuan [16][18]. - The issuance of shares for matching funds will not exceed 30% of the total share capital after the acquisition [17][18]. Group 3: Regulatory Compliance - The transaction has been reviewed and approved by independent directors prior to the board meeting, ensuring compliance with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regulations [2][27]. - The board confirmed that the transaction does not constitute a major asset restructuring as per the relevant regulations [24][25]. Group 4: Lock-up and Profit Distribution - Shares acquired by Yunnan Copper Group will be locked for 60 months post-issuance [9][17]. - The retained undistributed profits before the completion of the share issuance will be shared among new and old shareholders based on their respective holdings after the issuance [18][19].