Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The carbonate lithium futures price bottomed out and rebounded, closing with a doji star. The total open interest decreased by 11,436 lots, showing a trend of long - position exits. The spot price dropped to 158,500, a decrease of 3,350 from the previous day, and the spot discount to the futures widened. The prices of ternary cathode and lithium iron phosphate remained flat. The downstream showed resistance to price drops. This week, the weekly output of carbonate lithium increased by 70 tons and inventory decreased by 263 tons. The expectation of lithium - battery export rush is leading to early inventory stocking by the downstream, and the demand - side support is gradually emerging. It is expected that the carbonate lithium futures will stop falling [11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures price bottomed out and rebounded, hitting the previous day's low again. Total open interest decreased by 11,436 lots, indicating a long - position exit trend [11] - The spot price was reported at 158,500, a 3,350 decrease from yesterday, and the spot discount to the futures widened [11] - The prices of ternary cathode and lithium iron phosphate remained flat, and the downstream showed resistance to price drops [11] - This week, the weekly output of carbonate lithium increased by 70 tons and inventory decreased by 263 tons. The expectation of lithium - battery export rush is leading to early inventory stocking by the downstream, and the demand - side support is gradually emerging [11] 2. Industry News - Australian lithium mining company Elevra Lithium plans to advance its lithium - ore (spodumene) production expansion plan in its Quebec project by two years, aiming to complete construction by the end of 2029. The expansion will increase spodumene production to 315,000 tons per year from the current 200,000 tons per year. The revised plan allows for a more dispersed capital investment over a longer period [14] - After a months - long review on whether foreign imports threaten US national security, US President Trump decided not to impose new tariffs on key mineral imports for now. He will seek to reach agreements with foreign countries through negotiations to ensure an adequate supply of key minerals in the US and relieve supply - chain vulnerabilities. Trump is considering a "price - floor" mechanism rather than relying solely on traditional percentage tariffs to promote supply - chain development within the US ally camp. He also warned that import restrictions including tariffs may be imposed if satisfactory agreements cannot be reached within the specified time [14]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased, enhancing expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold for several months [2] - The US dollar index rose by 0.3%, closing at 99.35, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond settled at 4.1780% [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged in January, according to informed sources [9] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Spot gold prices fell by 0.24%, closing at $4615.34 per ounce, while spot silver dropped by 0.82%, ending at $92.42 per ounce [5] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 3.08%, closing at $59.16 per barrel, and Brent crude oil fell by 2.48%, settling at $63.76 per barrel [5] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise by 0.6%, the S&P 500 increase by 0.26%, and the Nasdaq Composite gain 0.25% [3] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index closed down 0.28% at 26923.62 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.35% to 5828.35 points [3] - A-shares experienced a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.33% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.41% [4] Group 4: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China introduced eight measures to enhance structural monetary policy support, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools [10] - The PBOC's deputy governor indicated that there is still room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates this year [10][12]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月15日，盛新锂能发布公告称，公司2026年第一次（临时）股东会审议通过《关于签署 锂盐产品合作框架协议暨关联交易的议案》《关于全资子公司收购启成矿业股权暨增加与关联方共同投 资的议案》。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the volatility in lithium carbonate futures prices, which reached a two-year high before experiencing a pullback, with the main contract closing at 161,900 yuan/ton, down 3.53% [1][2] - The price fluctuations are attributed to strong demand from leading lithium companies, while industry experts suggest that short-term supply-demand mismatches are the primary reason for price increases, making sustained price hikes difficult [1][3] - In 2025, lithium carbonate prices saw a significant rebound after hitting a low of 59,000 yuan/ton in June, climbing to a peak of 134,500 yuan/ton by December, and further rising to 174,100 yuan/ton in early 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - The production cost of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) materials has increased due to rising lithium carbonate prices, with estimates indicating that a 10,000 yuan/ton increase in lithium carbonate raises LFP production costs by 2,550 yuan/ton [4][5] - Major LFP companies are accelerating production expansion to capture market share in response to future demand growth, with significant investments planned for new production capacity [4][5] - The competition in the overseas market is intensifying, particularly with South Korean companies expected to launch substantial LFP battery projects in the U.S., potentially increasing pressure on Chinese exports [5] Group 3 - The cost pressures from rising lithium carbonate prices are impacting energy storage projects, with projections indicating that energy storage demand could continue to grow significantly, becoming a second growth driver for lithium demand [6][7] - The recent adjustments in export tax policies for battery products may have contributed to the short-term price increases of lithium carbonate, although the long-term trend remains uncertain [6][7] - The rising costs of core materials, including lithium carbonate, are expected to affect the overall cost structure of energy storage systems, with estimates suggesting that a 10% increase in battery costs could lead to a 3% rise in EPC costs and a decrease in internal rate of return [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of slightly increasing supply and cautious demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 163,220 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was -143,409 lots, down 17,892 lots; the position of the main contract was 443,942 lots, down 8,641 lots; the spread between near and far contracts was -200 yuan/ton, down 4,920 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 155,500 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was -4,220 yuan/ton, down 5,280 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,935 US dollars/ton, up 55 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 17,850 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume was 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons; the monthly export volume was 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 49%, up 2 percentage points [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly output of power batteries was 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate was 42,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 154,000 yuan/ton, down 35,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobalt oxide was 396,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position was 74,764 lots, up 7,757 lots; the total put position was 127,899 lots, up 12,286 lots; the total position put - call ratio was 171.07%, down 1.4684 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.70%, down 0.0186 percentage points [2] Industry News - The 2026 working meeting of the Inter - ministerial Joint Conference on the Development of Energy - saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry emphasized enhancing the independent controllability of the industrial chain and supply chain, accelerating the breakthrough of technologies such as all - solid - state batteries and high - level autonomous driving [2] - Deputy Director Wang Jun of the General Administration of Customs stated that in the past 5 years, the average annual growth rate of high - tech product imports and exports was 7.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate in 2025 further accelerated to 11.4% [2] - In 2025, the exports of lithium batteries and wind turbine generators increased by 26.2% and 48.7% respectively; the exports of electric motorcycles and bicycles increased by 18.1%, and the exports of railway electric locomotives increased by 27.1% [2] - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million vehicles, and new energy vehicle production and sales both exceeded 16 million vehicles, accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales [2] - Musk announced that Tesla's lithium refinery is now in operation, claiming it to be the largest in the United States [2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate futures has experienced a rapid increase, driven by multiple factors including policy adjustments, strong downstream demand, and supply disruptions, leading to significant impacts on the entire lithium battery supply chain [1][14]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures prices rose from 130,000 yuan/ton on January 5, 2026, to a peak of 174,000 yuan/ton on January 13, 2026, marking a 33.8% increase within just eight trading days [1][3]. - From a low of 60,000 yuan/ton in the second half of 2025, prices have surged over 180% [3]. Policy Impact - The adjustment of the export tax rebate for battery products, effective April 1, 2026, from 9% to 6%, and its complete cancellation by January 1, 2027, has prompted downstream battery manufacturers to accelerate their procurement of lithium carbonate [6][14]. - This policy change is expected to create a concentrated demand surge before the tax adjustment, particularly benefiting the materials used in ternary batteries and energy storage [6]. Demand Growth - In 2025, China's retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 12.809 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with December exports soaring by 255% [8]. - Global sales of new energy vehicles are projected to reach 24.75 million units in 2026, continuing to drive demand for lithium battery materials [8]. - The new energy storage sector saw an addition of 34 GW/87 GWh in installed capacity in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a growth of over 65% [8]. Supply Disruptions - The cancellation of mining rights for 27 lithium mines in Yichun, Jiangxi, at the end of 2025 has raised concerns about short-term supply constraints, despite limited actual production capacity [9]. - Domestic lithium salt production decreased by 3.2% month-on-month in December 2025, coupled with maintenance at some enterprises, limiting supply growth [9]. Industry Chain Impact - The rise in lithium carbonate prices is expected to increase cost pressures on battery manufacturers, potentially leading to higher end-product prices for new energy vehicles [11]. - Midstream companies may enhance R&D investments to improve production efficiency and mitigate costs, while some smaller firms may face profit compression and exit the market [11]. - The overall market remains resilient, with consumer demand for new energy vehicles likely to continue growing despite price pressures [11]. Future Outlook - In the short term (Q1 2026), lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain high due to pre-export demand and post-holiday replenishment needs, with some forecasts suggesting prices could reach 180,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton [13]. - However, after the initial demand surge, prices may face downward pressure as inventory levels rise and production resumes [13]. - Long-term, the supply-demand gap is anticipated to widen due to slow new capacity releases, supporting a systemic increase in lithium prices [13].

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Price Trends - Since the beginning of 2026, lithium carbonate futures have shown strong performance, with prices increasing by over 33,000 yuan/ton, representing a rise of more than 25% [1] - As of January 15, 2026, the main contract price for lithium carbonate futures was 158,500 yuan/ton, down 4.16% from previous levels, but the overall trend for the year remains upward [1] - Industry experts predict that lithium prices could return to the high of 200,000 yuan/ton in 2026 due to strong demand [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - In 2025, lithium carbonate prices experienced a V-shaped recovery, starting at approximately 75,200 yuan/ton and reaching a low of 59,000 yuan/ton before surging to 134,500 yuan/ton by December 29, 2025, marking a cumulative increase of over 120% from the low [2] - Analysts expect lithium carbonate demand to grow by 30% to 40% in 2026, with potential price increases if supply cannot keep pace [4] - The cancellation of export tax rebates for battery products starting April 1, 2026, is anticipated to stimulate short-term demand as companies rush to fulfill orders before the policy takes effect [4] Group 3: Impact on Electric Vehicle Manufacturers - The increase in lithium carbonate prices is not expected to significantly impact the overall cost structure of electric vehicle manufacturers, with the direct effect on vehicle costs estimated to be less than 2% [6] - Manufacturers are likely to absorb the cost increases rather than passing them on to consumers, especially in a competitive market [6][7] - The introduction of new policies, such as the adjustment of subsidies for vehicle trade-ins and changes in vehicle purchase tax, may influence consumer behavior and sales dynamics in the electric vehicle market [7]

永杉锂业公告称，持股5%以上股东宁波炬泰持有的1000万股公司无限售流通股司法拍卖已结束，由福 建泓泰投资有限公司以9926.4万元竞得，占宁波炬泰持股总数的14.74%，占公司总股本的1.95%。拍卖 最终成交以法院裁定为准，后续涉及缴款、过户等环节，结果有不确定性。若股份交割完成，宁波炬泰 及其一致行动人持股比例将从13.93%降至11.98%，不会导致公司控股股东、实控人变化，也不影响公 司经营。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium market is experiencing a significant shift, moving from a cycle of irrational exuberance to rational growth, driven by a more mature market and fundamental demand from AI and battery energy storage systems (BESS) [1][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The lithium market has undergone five booms and four busts over the past 15 years, defined by price fluctuations exceeding 20% [2]. - Historical price volatility has been attributed to the small market size and severe supply-demand mismatches, with past booms often based on overly optimistic expectations [3]. - The recent peak price of lithium reached approximately $82 per kilogram during the 2020-2022 period, followed by a dramatic decline to about $8 per kilogram, marking a nearly 90% drop [3]. Group 2: Recent Trends and Predictions - Deutsche Bank predicts that the bottom of the current cycle occurred in August 2025, with lithium spot prices rising approximately 160% and futures prices soaring 180% since that low [1]. - The average duration of boom periods is about 13 months, while busts last around 18 months, with the most recent major downturn lasting approximately 25 months [8]. Group 3: Key Drivers of Price Fluctuations - Three main factors contribute to the volatility of lithium prices: 1. The Dornbusch overshooting mechanism, where prices react excessively to shocks due to delayed corporate pricing responses and slow new supply adjustments [7]. 2. The market's small size historically, where minor supply-demand changes could lead to significant price swings [11]. 3. Dynamic policy impacts, where government support can exacerbate overheating during booms and worsen oversupply during downturns [11]. Group 4: Market Maturity and Future Outlook - The lithium market is projected to have a supply volume in 2025 that is approximately 11 times larger than that of 2015, indicating significant market maturation [11]. - The introduction of financial instruments like GFEX futures has increased market transparency and reduced speculative behavior, fostering a more rational valuation environment [11]. - The shift in demand drivers from electric vehicles (EVs) to BESS is a critical difference in the current cycle, with the latter being driven by fundamental needs rather than government subsidies [11].

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯 1月15日，A股三大股指集体翻红，截至9时43分，沪指涨0.11%，深证成指涨 0.50%，创业板指涨0.60%。锂矿、光伏、旅游、贵金属等板块涨幅居前。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯 1月15日，A股三大股指集体翻红，截至9时43分，沪指涨0.11%，深证成指涨 0.50%，创业板指涨0.60%。锂矿、光伏、旅游、贵金属等板块涨幅居前。 ...