（责任编辑：刘静 HZ010） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 中信建投证券研报指出，江西云母锂矿面临换证后续流程带来的停产压力，《固体废物综合治理行 动计划》落地后尾矿处理监管趋严，也放大供给端担忧。同时，部分锂盐厂春节期间存检修计划，当前 供给端几无弹性；虽然年度级别看供给增量较大，但无助于上半年紧张局面缓和。需求端，由于出口退 税带来抢出口预期，消费淡季不淡，累库困难，埋下二季度供给紧张基础。 据SMM，国内碳酸锂库存周度环比继续下降783吨，上游锂盐厂成品库存不足2万吨，下游材料厂 库存不足4万吨，处于偏低水平，跌价带来较为明显的补库效应。消费淡季不淡，维持去库，锂基本面 较为强势，二季度供给紧张担忧不断加剧。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a bullish sentiment on lithium prices in the short term, driven by supply constraints and strong demand fundamentals, while maintaining a cautious outlook for the medium term [1][2] - Morgan Stanley's report highlights that the cost of lithium from integrated spodumene mines has decreased to 60,000 RMB per ton, which is significantly lower than previous levels, and anticipates further cost reductions in the future [2] - The domestic lithium carbonate inventory has decreased by 783 tons week-on-week, with upstream lithium salt plants holding less than 20,000 tons of finished product inventory, indicating a tight supply situation [1] Group 2 - Citic Construction Securities notes that the Jiangxi mica lithium mine faces production pressure due to regulatory changes, which could exacerbate supply concerns in the near term [1] - The expectation of export tax rebates has led to a robust demand environment, with difficulties in inventory accumulation during the off-peak season, setting the stage for supply tightness in Q2 [1] - The companies involved in the lithium carbonate industry chain listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange include Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and Tianqi Lithium (09696) [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain high due to uncertainties surrounding the restart of key lithium mining operations and ongoing supply constraints [1][2] - Morgan Stanley's report highlights that the cost of lithium carbonate from integrated spodumene mines has decreased to 60,000 RMB per ton, indicating a potential for further cost reductions in the future [1][2] - The domestic lithium carbonate inventory has decreased by 783 tons week-on-week, with upstream lithium salt plants having finished goods inventory below 20,000 tons, suggesting a tight supply situation [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities notes that the Jiangxi spodumene lithium mine faces production pressure due to regulatory processes, which may exacerbate supply concerns [1] - The demand side remains strong, with expectations of export tax rebates leading to a robust consumption environment, complicating inventory accumulation [1] - Morgan Stanley expresses a more optimistic short-term outlook for lithium prices but remains cautious about mid-term trends, indicating potential trading opportunities in lithium stocks [2] Group 3 - Key companies in the lithium carbonate-related industry chain in the Hong Kong stock market include Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and Tianqi Lithium (09696) [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a bullish sentiment on lithium prices in the short term, driven by supply constraints and strong demand fundamentals, while caution is advised for the mid-term outlook due to uncertainties in production timelines and regulatory pressures [1][2]. Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's report highlights that the price of lithium carbonate reached a peak of 178,000 RMB per ton, with a notable increase of over 5% [1]. - The cost of lithium carbonate from integrated lithium mica mines has decreased to 60,000 RMB per ton, suggesting potential for further cost reductions in the future [1][2]. - Domestic lithium carbonate inventory has decreased by 783 tons week-on-week, indicating a tight supply situation with upstream lithium salt plants holding less than 20,000 tons of finished product inventory [1]. - The demand side remains strong, with expectations of continued consumption despite the seasonal downturn, leading to concerns about supply tightness in the second quarter [1]. Group 3 - Companies involved in the lithium carbonate industry chain in the Hong Kong stock market include Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and Tianqi Lithium (09696) [3].

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for the 12 months ending December 31, 2025, to be in the range of RMB 1.1 billion to RMB 1.65 billion, representing an increase of approximately 153.04% to 179.56% compared to a net loss of RMB 2.074 billion in the same period last year [1] - The expected net loss after excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between RMB 300 million and RMB 600 million, a reduction of approximately 32.38% to 66.19% from the previous year's net loss of RMB 888 million [1] - The basic earnings per share is anticipated to be between RMB 0.55 and RMB 0.82, compared to a basic loss per share of RMB 1.03 in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The significant increase in the company's performance is attributed to the rise in the stock price of Pilbara Minerals Limited (PLS), resulting in a fair value change gain of approximately RMB 1.03 billion after hedging related to the structured options [2] - The company has designated the convertible bonds issued in H-shares during the reporting period as "measured at fair value with changes recognized in profit or loss," leading to a corresponding fair value change loss due to the significant increase in the company's stock price and the exercise of conversion rights by most bondholders [2] - The company recognized investment income from the partial transfer of equity in its subsidiary Shenzhen Yichu Smart Source Group Co., Ltd. and successfully introduced strategic investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. expects a significant turnaround in its financial performance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders between RMB 1.1 billion and RMB 1.65 billion, compared to a net loss of RMB 2.074 billion in the previous year, indicating a growth of approximately 153.04% to 179.56% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net loss, excluding non-recurring items, in the range of RMB 300 million to RMB 600 million, which is a reduction of approximately 32.38% to 66.19% from the previous year's loss of RMB 888 million [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be between RMB 0.55 and RMB 0.82, a significant improvement from the previous year's loss per share of RMB 1.03 [1] Factors Influencing Performance - The expected increase in performance is primarily attributed to the rise in the stock price of Pilbara Minerals Limited (PLS), resulting in a fair value change gain of approximately RMB 1.03 billion after hedging related to the options [2] - The company has designated its convertible bonds issued in H-shares as "measured at fair value with changes recognized in profit or loss," leading to a fair value change loss due to the significant increase in the company's stock price and the exercise of conversion rights by bondholders [2] - The company recognized investment income from the partial sale of its subsidiary Shenzhen Yichu Smart Source Group Co., Ltd. and successfully introduced strategic investors [2] - Asset impairment tests were conducted on assets showing signs of impairment, leading to the recognition of corresponding impairment provisions [2]

格隆汇1月27日丨赣锋锂业(01772.HK)公告，预期集团截至2025年12月31日止十二个月(「本报告 期」)，(i)归属于公司股东的净利润区间预计为人民币11亿元至人民币16.5亿元，较上年同期归属于公司 股东的净亏损人民币207,401.34万元增长约153.04%至179.56%；(ii)扣除非经常性损益后的亏损净额区间 预计为人民币30,000万元至人民币60,000万元，较上年同期公司录得扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损人民 币88,730.91万元减少扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损约32.38%至66.19%；及(iii)基本每股收益区间预计为 每股人民币0.55元至每股人民币0.82元(上年同期：基本每股亏损为人民币1.03元)。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the lithium industry [7] Core Insights - The lithium supply-demand situation is tight, with a shortage of 0.4 million tons in December 2025, marking four consecutive months of supply shortfall. Total supply for 2025 is projected at 138.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.2%, while demand is expected to reach 134.54 million tons, up 42.2% year-on-year [4][73] - Lithium prices are expected to remain high, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 99,900 CNY per ton in December, reflecting a 15% month-on-month increase and a 30% year-on-year increase. Prices are anticipated to continue fluctuating at high levels, especially as the market enters a peak season post-Chinese New Year [5] Supply Side Summary - In December 2025, lithium spodumene imports reached approximately 766,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 19%. Total imports for 2025 are estimated at 7,726,700 tons, up 10% year-on-year [3][13] - Lithium carbonate imports in December 2025 were 24,000 tons, reflecting an 8.77% month-on-month increase but a 14.43% year-on-year decrease. Total imports for the year are projected at 243,000 tons, a 3.41% increase year-on-year [20] - Lithium hydroxide imports surged to approximately 5,093 tons in December, a 259% month-on-month increase and a 738% year-on-year increase, with total imports for 2025 estimated at 18,400 tons, up 125.75% year-on-year [25][29] Demand Side Summary - The demand for lithium salts in December 2025 was 144,000 tons, a 1.7% month-on-month increase. The total demand for 2025 is projected at 134.54 million tons, reflecting a 42.2% year-on-year increase [57][73] - The demand for NCM cathodes in December 2025 was 81,400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The total production for the year is expected to be 795,000 tons, up 23.5% year-on-year [34] - The demand for lithium in the power battery sector is projected to increase by 52.1% in 2025, with total production of power batteries expected to reach 1,670.5 GWh, a 53.3% year-on-year increase [58][66] Price and Inventory Summary - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in December 2025 was 99,900 CNY per ton, with a significant increase expected as the market transitions into a peak demand season [5] - Inventory levels are expected to continue decreasing, with a total inventory of 108,900 tons as of January 22, 2026 [9]

Suspension and Resumption - Jiasitang's shareholder, Everbright Industrial, is planning a transfer of company shares, leading to a stock suspension [1] Share Buyback - Pianzaihuang's controlling shareholder, Jiulongjiang Group, intends to increase its stake in the company by 300 million to 500 million yuan. The Phase I clinical trial of the innovative drug PZH2113 has completed the enrollment of the first subject, with no similar indication drugs approved in the domestic and international markets [2] Mergers and Acquisitions - Tailinwei plans to acquire 100% equity of Panqi Micro through a combination of issuing shares and cash payment [3] Business Operations - Baitong Energy plans to invest approximately 400 million USD through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Tuda Aluminum, in a project with Angola's Dande Port Development Company, establishing a wholly-owned company, Baitong Tuda (Angola) Aluminum [4] - Puluo Pharmaceutical has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Hangzhou Derui Zhiyao Technology Co., Ltd. to develop a long-term collaboration on CDMO projects [4] - Nord shares intend to upgrade and transform the production line equipment of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Qinghai Electronics, with an estimated total investment of 168 million yuan, expanding production capabilities to include high-end lithium battery copper foil [4] Performance Changes - Guotai Haitong expects a net profit of 27.533 billion to 28.006 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 111% to 115%, driven by significant growth in wealth management, institutional, and trading business revenues [5] - Shenwan Hongyuan anticipates a net profit of 9.1 billion to 10.1 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year growth of 75% to 94% [6] - Yahua Group projects a net profit of 600 million to 680 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 133.36% to 164.47%, supported by stable orders from high-quality clients and a rebound in lithium salt market prices [6] - Ganfeng Lithium expects a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [7] - Zhongjin Gold anticipates a net profit of 4.8 billion to 5.4 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 41.76% to 59.48%, primarily due to improved profitability in its mineral gold business [7] - Nanya New Materials expects a net profit of 220 million to 260 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year growth of 337.20% to 416.69%, driven by a recovery in demand in the copper-clad laminate industry [7] - Shijia Photon anticipates a net profit of approximately 342 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 425.95%, supported by rapid growth in the data communication market driven by AI development [7] - Zhenlei Technology projects a net profit of 123 million to 145 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 529.64% to 642.26%, benefiting from increased demand in the special integrated circuit industry [8] - Yihua shares expect a net profit of 310 million to 390 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year growth of 149.66% to 214.09%, driven by the development of the computing power industry [8] - Electric Investment and Financing anticipates a net profit of 3 billion to 3.5 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 187.37% to 235.26%, due to the inclusion of Electric Investment Nuclear Power in the consolidated financial statements following a major asset restructuring [8] - Hongxin Electronics expects a net profit of 110 million to 150 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 93.61% to 164.01%, with profitability in its FPC business and rapid growth in computing power business driven by the ALL IN AI strategy [8] - Shennan Circuit anticipates a net profit of 3.154 billion to 3.342 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 68% to 78% [8] - Hudian shares expect a net profit of 3.822 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 48% [8]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium expects a significant turnaround in its financial performance for 2025, projecting a net profit of between 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 2.074 billion yuan in the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit for 2025 between 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan, a notable recovery from a loss of 2.074 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items for 2025 is projected to be a loss of between 600 million to 300 million yuan, compared to a loss of 888.7 million yuan in the previous year [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a non-recurring net profit of approximately -942 million yuan, indicating that the fourth quarter is expected to yield a profit of between 342 million to 642 million yuan [1] Group 2: Stock Performance and Valuation Changes - The company reported a fair value change gain of approximately 1.03 billion yuan from its holdings in Pilbara Minerals Limited, after hedging related to established risk management strategies [2] - The stock prices of Ganfeng Lithium have shown an upward trend, with A-shares increasing by 16.56% and H-shares by 41.28% since December 2025 [2] - As of January 27, 2026, Ganfeng Lithium's A-share price closed at 72.91 yuan per share, while H-share closed at 69.20 HKD [2]