Group 1 - In the second week of January, the total net inflow of funds into the market was 7.2 billion, a significant decrease from the previous week's inflow of 71.5 billion [1][7] - The short-term sentiment indicator is at a high level since 2005, with the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) at 682%, placing it in the 92nd percentile historically [1][13] - The long-term sentiment indicator is at a medium-low level since 2005, with the recent A-share risk premium at 2.45%, in the 46th percentile historically [2][13] Group 2 - The top three industries by transaction volume in the past week were defense and military industry (100%), semiconductors (97%), and electric power equipment (96%), while the lowest were real estate (0%), food processing (0%), and transportation (0%) [2][13] - The highest financing transaction ratio industries were electric power equipment (93%), machinery equipment (93%), and basic chemicals (92%), while the lowest were oil and petrochemicals (34%), coal (45%), and retail (46%) [2][13]

Market Overview - On January 19, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.05%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.48%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.4%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.7%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.05% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on January 19 were basic chemicals (+2.7%), oil and petrochemicals (+2.08%), electric equipment (+1.84%), automobiles (+1.7%), and social services (+1.63%). The worst-performing sectors were computers (-1.55%), telecommunications (-0.96%), banking (-0.6%), pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.52%), and electronics (-0.49%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on January 19 was 27,322 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.292 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights Macroeconomic Analysis - Latin America is characterized as an export-oriented economy for agricultural and mineral products while importing manufactured goods. The commodity cycle significantly influences total demand through both export and capital expenditure channels [5] - The market anticipates that exports may drive economic growth in 2026 [5] Fixed Income Analysis - The current R007 weighted interest rate is around 1.50%, which reflects both the central bank's preferred pricing (DR007) and liquidity friction between banks and non-banks (the spread between R007 and DR007). It is advised not to hold overly optimistic expectations [7][8] - The market sentiment is relatively optimistic, but there is a cautious stance compared to previous assessments [10]

Market Overview - As of January 19, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114 points, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05 points, up 0.09%. The ChiNext Index fell by 0.70%, and the STAR Market 50 Index decreased by 0.48% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 3527 stocks rose, accounting for over 64%, while more than 1800 stocks declined. There were 103 stocks that hit the daily limit up, and 31 stocks hit the limit down. Additionally, 32 stocks failed to hit the limit, resulting in an overall limit-hitting rate of 76.30% [1] Sector Performance - The sectors with the most stocks hitting the daily limit up included power equipment, basic chemicals, and machinery, with 24, 10, and 7 stocks respectively [1] - Among the stocks that hit the daily limit up, 15 were ST stocks, including *ST Bio and *ST Rong Control [1] Notable Stocks - Fenglong Co., Ltd. achieved a remarkable 14 consecutive limit-up days, the highest among all stocks [1] - In terms of limit-up order amounts, Fenglong Co., Ltd., TBEA Co., Ltd., and Hancable Co., Ltd. led with 1.293 billion, 393 million, and 385 million respectively [1][2] - The stocks with significant limit-up order strength (order amount as a percentage of circulating A-shares) included Evergrande High-tech, Fenglong Co., Ltd., and Tiandi Online, with 9.66%, 9.45%, and 4.08% respectively [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodities Weekly Report - Report Date: January 19, 2026 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the commodity market rose 1.13% overall, with precious metals leading at 9.41%, while black, agricultural products, and energy and chemicals declined by 0.08%, 0.15%, and 0.98% respectively. Short - term geopolitical disturbances are numerous, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2][6] - The US economic data shows resilience, Fed officials are negative about short - term rate cuts, and it's almost certain that the rate will remain unchanged in January. In China, December's import - export and social financing data are better than expected, indicating continuous and moderate economic improvement. [2] - The nomination of the next Fed Chair may be decided this week. [2] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Performance Summary - **Market Index** - Last week, the overall commodity market rose 1.13%. Precious metals led with a 9.41% increase, non - ferrous metals rose slightly by 0.89%, while black, agricultural products, and energy and chemicals declined by 0.08%, 0.15%, and 0.98% respectively. [2][6] - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with non - ferrous and precious metal sectors having larger fluctuations. [2][6] - Only the precious metal and black sectors had net capital inflows, with 32.5 billion yuan flowing into the precious metal sector. [2][6] - **Top Gainers and Losers** - The top - rising varieties were up 20.03%, 14.95%, and 4.1%. The top - falling varieties were glass, rapeseed meal, and a certain variety, down 3.58%, 3.55%, and 3.39% respectively. [6] 3.2 Outlook for Each Sector - **Precious Metals** - The Iran situation is tense, the US is pressuring Greenland and imposing additional tariffs on many European countries. Trump's challenges to the global order make the upward trend of precious metals unchanged. In the short term, they may fluctuate strongly. [2] - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - Recent domestic and international data are positive, indicating economic recovery. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the macro - environment is neutral to positive. The SHFE inventory continues to accumulate, the LME is in a destocking state, and most spot premiums are weakening. Supply - side contraction risks still exist, supporting the sector's prices. In the short term, the sector may fluctuate. [2] - **Black Metals** - The apparent demand for rebar has rebounded, production has slightly decreased, and the inventory - building pace has slowed. December's steel exports reached a new high. Steel mill profits have marginally recovered, but due to insufficient downstream acceptance, blast furnace复产 has slowed, and hot metal production has decreased. The peak of iron ore's phased supply has passed, port inventories continue to increase, and the structural contradiction still exists but is expected to ease. The coal price may fluctuate weakly due to rising total inventories and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data. In the short term, the sector may fluctuate. [3] - **Energy** - The Iran situation is tense but under control, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. The market is becoming desensitized to geopolitical issues, and the geopolitical premium space is limited unless a conflict actually occurs. The latest EIA weekly data shows a significant increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. In the first quarter of 2026, global crude oil supply - demand shows significant inventory pressure, and oversupply is the main factor suppressing oil prices. Oil prices may be under pressure in the short term. [3] - **Chemicals** - For polyester varieties, the short - term upward driving force has weakened. For building material varieties, PVC's operating rate has slightly increased, some enterprises' exports have increased, but downstream operating rates have declined, and procurement enthusiasm is low. Attention should be paid to whether export tax rebates will drive export - rushing and create month - spread arbitrage opportunities. In 2026, PVC is expected to reduce production capacity, and the futures price center is expected to rise. Glass production capacity has been continuously reduced to 150100 tons. In the long term, glass supply will decrease, and supply - demand pressure will ease. As the downstream approaches the holiday, seasonal inventory accumulation may occur. [4] - **Agricultural Products** - Brazil's IBGE expects the 2026 soybean output to increase by 2.5% compared to 2025. The impact of La Nina is gradually fading, and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America has returned as the main trading logic. The US biomass fuel policy's certainty has increased, and the policy is expected to be announced in early March. In the short term, oilseeds and fats may fluctuate. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs** - Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.85% - 2.90%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 263.587 billion yuan, with a 0.79% increase. The total trading volume was 754.651862 million shares, with a 2.19% increase. [37] - **Other Commodity ETFs** - The energy and chemical ETF had a - 0.96% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.86% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 3.78% return, and the silver fund had a 23.15% return. The total scale of all commodity ETFs was 279.532 billion yuan, with a 1.85% increase, and the total trading volume was 2288.502384 million shares, with an 8.63% increase. [37][39]

1.A股市场主力资金净流出397.98亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出162.72亿元，尾盘净流出58.29亿元，A股市场全天主力资金净流出397.98亿元。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | | 2026-1-19 | -397.98 | -162.72 | -58. 29 | -209.12 | | 2026-1-16 | -238.85 | -106. 45 | -38. 37 | -133.83 | | 2026-1-15 | -509.20 | -225.52 | 49.73 | -265. 38 | | 2026-1-14 | -504. 74 | -71.84 | -54. 14 | -90. 16 | | 2026-1-13 | -1286. 54 | -530. 96 | -183. 95 | -718. 20 | 盘后数据出炉。 1月19日，A股市场整体涨跌互现。截至收盘，上证指数报4114点，上涨0.29%；深证 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in the number of shareholders in various companies indicates a trend of increasing concentration of shares, with 102 companies experiencing a decrease for more than three consecutive periods, and some like Dazhongnan and Far East Transmission seeing declines for up to 12 periods [1][2]. Shareholder Trends - A total of 787 companies reported their latest shareholder numbers as of January 10, with significant declines noted in companies such as Dazhongnan (106,534 shareholders, down 29.73%) and Far East Transmission (64,541 shareholders, down 19.46%) [1]. - Companies with the largest recent declines in shareholder numbers include Hengshuai Co. (down 16.65%), Farantak (down 9.92%), and Furong Technology (down 7.34%) [1][3]. Market Performance - Among the companies with declining shareholder numbers, 57 saw their stock prices increase, while 43 experienced declines. Notable gainers include Hengshuai Co. (up 52.85%), Zhiguang Electric (up 44.75%), and Zhongyuan Neipei (up 33.24%) [2]. - 36 companies outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with Hengshuai Co. achieving a relative return of 47.37% compared to the index [2]. Industry Distribution - The industries with the highest concentration of companies experiencing declining shareholder numbers include basic chemicals (13 companies), electric equipment (10 companies), and electronics (8 companies) [2]. Institutional Activity - In the past month, 13 companies with declining shareholder numbers were subject to institutional research, with frequent inquiries directed at Xingfa Group, Jintian Co., and Hengxin Life, each receiving two rounds of institutional research [2]. - The companies with the most institutional participation include Xingfa Group (107 institutions), Caixun Co. (76 institutions), and Jintian Co. (23 institutions) [2]. Performance Forecasts - One company has released its preliminary earnings report for 2025, with Shaanxi Guotou A showing a net profit increase of 5.70%. Three companies have issued earnings forecasts, with the highest projected net profit growth being for Quan Feng Automobile, expected to be -315 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.04% [3].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% on January 19, with 23 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the basic chemical and oil & gas sectors, which increased by 2.70% and 2.08% respectively [1] - The total net outflow of capital from the two markets was 35.714 billion yuan, with 13 sectors seeing net inflows, particularly the power equipment sector, which had a net inflow of 7.597 billion yuan and a daily increase of 1.84% [1] Basic Chemical Industry - The basic chemical industry saw a rise of 2.70%, with a total net inflow of 1.331 billion yuan. Out of 408 stocks in this sector, 341 stocks increased in value, with 10 hitting the daily limit up, while 63 stocks declined, with 3 hitting the daily limit down [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow in the basic chemical sector were Wanhua Chemical, with a net inflow of 424 million yuan, followed by Junzheng Group and Weiyuan Co., with net inflows of 289 million yuan and 139 million yuan respectively [2] Capital Inflow and Outflow - The top stocks in terms of capital inflow in the basic chemical sector included: - Wanhua Chemical: +4.67%, turnover rate 1.62%, net inflow 424.26 million yuan - Junzheng Group: +8.68%, turnover rate 5.01%, net inflow 289.14 million yuan - Weiyuan Co.: +8.52%, turnover rate 6.08%, net inflow 138.90 million yuan [2] - The stocks with the highest capital outflow included: - Duofluor: +0.69%, turnover rate 6.82%, net outflow -154.91 million yuan - Kaimete Gas: -2.67%, turnover rate 8.18%, net outflow -118.74 million yuan - Shenjian Co.: -10.01%, turnover rate 15.04%, net outflow -115.00 million yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by a combination of cost support, demand recovery, and supply optimization, leading to a tighter supply-demand balance [4][12]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of January 19, the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index rose by 2.70%, reaching 4758.50 points, with leading stocks like Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Letong Co. hitting the daily limit [1][8]. - Multiple chemical products have seen collective price increases, including propylene, ammonium sulfate, acetone, and lithium hydroxide, driven by upstream oil price stabilization and pre-holiday stocking demand [3][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current price increase in chemical products is attributed to three main factors: cost support from stable oil prices, reduced effective capacity due to pre-holiday maintenance, and concentrated demand from downstream sectors [4][12]. - The industry is witnessing a trend of mergers and acquisitions as companies seek to expand into high-value sectors, such as integrated circuit materials and high-end electronic chemicals [5][13]. Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a plan aiming for an annual growth of over 5% in the petrochemical industry from 2025 to 2026, focusing on technological innovation and high-quality development [5][14]. - The Shandong Provincial Government has set a target for the petrochemical industry to achieve over 5% year-on-year growth by 2026, emphasizing the importance of high-end chemical products [6][14]. - The industry is transitioning from chaotic expansion to a phase of stable growth and transformation, supported by both national and local policies [7][15].

【博时市场点评1月19日】A股缩量震荡，两市走势分化 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数走势分化，两市成交较上周五缩量至2.7万亿，资金交易热度有所降温。截至上周 五，两融余额继站上2.7万亿后仍继续放量。美国近日发布了11月消费数据，总体有所回升，主要是因 为11月是传统消费旺季，感恩节、"黑五"与圣诞节都会刺激消费需求，并且关税政策与政府停摆扰动影 响减弱。往后看，25年四季度美国经济增速或在政府停摆的冲击下承压，低基数效应或有利于26年一季 度GDP增速的环比反弹。因此，美联储在降息问题上或将保持谨慎的立场。短期看，市场将聚焦1月29 日美联储议息会议，这将是鲍威尔最后一次主持，届时特朗普或提名新主席人选，受此影响市场波动率 或上升；中期维度，若4–5月通胀持续回落，则6月降息落地概率较高，全球风险资产或有望受到支撑。 消息面 1月19日，国家统计局数据显示，初步核算，2025年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，比上 年增长5.0%。12月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.2%，环比增长0.49%。社会消费品零售总额 45136亿元，同比增长0.9%。全年全国固定资产投资（不含农户）48518 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% to close at 4114.00 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09% to 14294.05 points. In contrast, the Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 0.48% to 1506.86 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.70% to 3337.61 points. Overall, 3526 stocks rose while 1826 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 27083 billion yuan, down by 3179 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][10]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included basic chemicals (up 2.70%), petroleum and petrochemicals (up 2.08%), electric equipment (up 1.84%), automobiles (up 1.70%), social services (up 1.63%), and building materials (up 1.61%). Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines were computers (down 1.55%), communications (down 0.96%), and banking (down 0.60%) [1][10]. Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors today included ultra-high voltage, AVIC system, Hainan Free Trade Port, fluorine chemicals, charging piles, virtual power plants, selected chemical raw materials, selected animal health, selected chemical fibers, ice and snow tourism, general aviation, large aircraft, aircraft carriers, and selected rare metals [2].