Report Title Market Expectations Fluctuate, Iron Ore Prices Under Pressure at High Levels [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, iron ore prices rose from the bottom. Supply-side disturbances resurfaced, significantly impacting market sentiment in the short term, but the room for further increase is limited. The overall supply pattern in the fourth quarter remains loose. The rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices, and it is predicted that iron ore prices will mainly operate with a high-level downward trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Logic Analysis**: Since November, the supply side has remained stable. Mainstream Australian mines are basically flat year-on-year, while Brazilian mines contribute a small increase. Non-mainstream shipments have slightly declined compared to the high in the third quarter but still contribute an increase year-on-year. From the demand side, domestic terminal steel demand has shown signs of improvement in the fourth quarter but remains low in the medium term. Overseas steel demand maintains high growth. Overall, the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices, and the iron ore supply-demand pattern in China has become looser since the fourth quarter [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach for unilateral trading, and adopt a wait-and-see approach for arbitrage and options trading [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Global Iron Ore Shipment Volume - Global iron ore shipment volume has rebounded rapidly on a weekly basis. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.13 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2% or 28 million tons. Among them, the weekly average of Australian shipments is 17.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% or 2 million tons, and the weekly average of Brazilian shipments is 7.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% or 11.5 million tons [6][13]. - Non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore shipments have rebounded slightly on a weekly basis. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore shipments is 18.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The third quarter saw an improvement in non-mainstream iron ore shipments, and although the fourth quarter shipments have slightly declined compared to the high in the third quarter, they still contribute a certain increase year-on-year [14][15]. 3.2.2 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore ports has slightly declined. Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, and the inventory accumulation has exceeded 12 million tons. Currently, the total domestic iron element inventory is at a high level in the past five years, second only to the level in 2021 [16][25]. 3.2.3 Terminal Steel Demand - Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic molten iron production has increased by 3.3% or 11.3 million tons year-on-year, and crude steel production has increased by 3% or 12 million tons year-on-year. However, domestic crude steel consumption has decreased by 3.3% or 12.3 million tons year-on-year (excluding exports). Overseas iron element consumption has increased by nearly 4% or 27.6 million tons year-on-year, and has been at a high level year-on-year since the second quarter, continuously contributing an increase [26][30]. 3.2.4 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - The overall supply of iron ore in the fourth quarter remains loose, and the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices [3]. 3.2.5 Iron Ore Price and Profit - No specific summary of price and profit trends is provided in the text, but only various price and profit data charts are presented. 3.2.6 Iron Ore Futures Basis and Spread - The basis of the iron ore main contract has room to decline, and various basis and spread data charts are presented [44]. 3.2.7 Global Four Major Mines' Shipments - Various data charts of the global shipments of the four major mines are presented, but no specific summary is provided [46]. 3.2.8 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory Structure - Various data charts of the port inventory structure of imported iron ore are presented, but no specific summary is provided [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly due to a decrease in arrivals and port inventories. The Fed's December rate cut expectation weakened, and the iron ore supply pressure was alleviated by a decline in arrivals in recent weeks. The iron ore production remained above 2.35 million tons, but the current weakness in the coking coal and steel markets might affect the ore price. The I2601 contract should focus on the resistance around 800, with short - term trading and attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Price**: As of the close on November 21, the iron ore main contract futures price was 785.5 (+13) yuan/ton, and the Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 844 (+6) yuan/dry ton [6]. - **Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 447,400 tons week - on - week. From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.164 million tons, and the Australia and Brazil iron ore shipment volume was 29.087 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.601 million tons [5][6]. - **Arrival**: The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 399,400 tons. From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.699 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 399,400 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 22.689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 472,300 tons; and the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.413 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 484,500 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production decreased by 600 tons. The daily average hot metal production was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 480 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 77,990 tons. As of November 21, 2025, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 157.3485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,990 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 194,530 tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 90.0123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 74,780 tons [6]. - **Profit Margin**: The steel mill profit margin was 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89 percentage points [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, the Fed had a large divergence on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December. Domestically, the third - round fifth - batch of central environmental protection inspections were launched, and the central bank kept the loan prime rates unchanged. In terms of supply and demand, the Australia and Brazil iron ore shipments increased, arrivals decreased, and domestic port inventories declined. The steel mill blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and hot metal production were slightly adjusted downwards. Technically, the I2601 contract of iron ore rushed up and consolidated, with the daily K - line standing above multiple moving averages and a bullish arrangement of the moving average combination. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were rising upwards but had not effectively broken through the 0 axis [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the I2601 contract fluctuated strongly. It was stronger than the I2605 contract, with a spread of 29.5 yuan/ton on the 21st, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Net Long Positions**: On November 21, the Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts were 800, a week - on - week decrease of 100. The net long position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was 527, an increase of 27,890 from the previous week [22]. - **Spot Price**: On November 21, the Macfayden powder ore with 61% iron content at Qingdao Port was reported at 844 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/dry ton. This week, the iron ore spot price was weaker than the futures price, with a basis of 59 yuan/ton on the 21st, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton [28]. 3. Industry Situation - **Arrival Volume**: From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume increased, while the arrival volume at 45 ports in China decreased [32]. - **Inventory**: The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports decreased by 77,990 tons week - on - week, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 3110 tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory decreased by 74,780 tons week - on - week, the daily consumption decreased by 950 tons, and the inventory consumption ratio decreased by 0.16 days [35]. - **Inventory Availability Days**: As of November 20, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in domestic large - and medium - sized steel mills was 20 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1 day. On November 20, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2170, a week - on - week increase of 145 [40]. - **Import Volume and Capacity Utilization**: In October, China's iron ore imports decreased by 5.017 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 4.3%. From January to October, the cumulative imports increased by 0.7% year - on - year. As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines increased by 0.38% week - on - week, the daily average fine powder output increased by 240 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2410 tons [43]. - **Domestic Iron Ore Output**: In October 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative output from January to October decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. In September, the iron fine powder output of 433 domestic iron mines decreased by 35,600 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 1.5% [47]. 4. Downstream Situation - **Crude Steel Output**: In October 2025, China's crude steel output was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [50]. - **Steel Exports and Imports**: In October 2025, China's steel exports were 9.782 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%; imports were 503,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to October, cumulative exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and cumulative imports decreased by 11.9% year - on - year [50]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Production**: On November 21, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.19%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.26 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The daily average hot metal production was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 480 tons [53]. 5. Options Market - Due to the support of the decline in iron ore inventory, the ore price was strong, but the overall black sector was weak, especially the decline in steel mill profits might squeeze the ore price. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options when iron ore rebounds [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Unilateral observation; opportunistic participation in spot-futures positive arbitrage for hot-rolled coils, or using options strategies to assist spot sales [7] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use put spreads to protect spot exposure [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Unilateral trading with a short-term focus; medium- and long-term investors should wait and see, and previously recommended hedging short positions should be closed [7] - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Market sentiment is cooling, but weekly data may continue to improve. The static valuation of steel futures prices is not high, but there is a lack of upward momentum, and the concern of steel mill production cuts remains. Steel production is expected to gradually decline [2] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure. The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the supply surplus pressure persists in the medium term, despite stronger cost support [2][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot market sentiment is weakening, and the expectation of coke price cuts is increasing. The decline in coking coal and coke prices may be nearing an end, but the driving force for a rebound may need to wait until mid - December [5] - Iron Ore: The fundamentals are weak, with expected inventory accumulation in the medium term. However, due to strong macro - sentiment, it is difficult to break through the price range, and the operation is biased towards shorting on rallies [6] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Futures Price Information - On November 20th, the closing prices and price changes of far - month contracts (RB2605, HC2605, etc.) and near - month contracts (RB2601, HC2601, etc.) in the black metal futures market are provided, including price changes and percentage changes [1] 3.2 Spread and Profit Information - On November 20th, information such as thread surface profit, coil - thread spread, thread - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and coking surface profit is provided, along with their price changes [1] 3.3 Spot Price Information - On November 20th, spot prices of various products such as Tianjin thread, Guangzhou thread, Tangshan billet, Shanghai hot - rolled coil, and coking coal at different ports are provided, along with their price changes [1] 3.4 Basis Information - On November 20th, basis data for HC, RB, J, and other main contracts are provided, along with their price changes [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined. This week, the average daily molten iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills both decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis. With the unimproved profitability of steel mills and production restrictions, the demand for iron ore continues to be weak. Meanwhile, although the arrivals at domestic ports have been falling, the shipments from overseas miners have increased significantly and returned to the annual high. According to the shipping schedule, the arrivals will rise again. The supply of foreign ore is positive, and the domestic ore production is stable, so the ore supply remains at a high level. Currently, the iron ore demand is weakly stable, and the supply is high, so the fundamentals of the ore market are weak, and the ore price is under pressure. The positive factor is the support from the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the ore price will maintain a volatile trend in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 15,054.65, with a week - on - week decrease of 75.06, an increase of 512.17 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 264.73 compared to the same period [1]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,001.23, with a week - on - week decrease of 74.78, an increase of 151.37 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 171.81 compared to the same period [1]. Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals are 2,268.90, with a week - on - week decrease of 472.30, an increase of 239.80 compared to last month, and a decrease of 513.10 compared to the same period. The global 19 - port iron ore shipments are 3,516.40, with a week - on - week increase of 447.38, an increase of 128.05 compared to last month, and an increase of 505.50 compared to the same period [1]. Demand - The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 236.28, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.60, a decrease of 0.08 compared to last month, and an increase of 0.48 compared to the same period. The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume is 329.92, with a week - on - week increase of 2.97, an increase of 9.76 compared to last month, and an increase of 2.94 compared to the same period. The 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 291.68, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.95, an increase of 0.06 compared to last month, and a decrease of 0.93 compared to the same period. The weekly average of iron ore transactions at main ports is 75.08, with a week - on - week decrease of 30.88, a decrease of 7.10 compared to last month, and a decrease of 34.90 compared to the same period [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal are all "oscillating" [1][3][5][7] Core Views - The steel market has inventory pressure, and steel prices will oscillate. The iron ore market has high supply and inventory pressure, and ore prices will likely oscillate. The coking coal and coke markets are pessimistic, with prices running weakly. The thermal coal market has limited supply recovery and high prices, with short - term prices oscillating strongly [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures prices oscillated weakly, and spot prices followed suit. National building materials trading volume was 84,500 tons, a decrease of 8.15% from the previous day. Rebar production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand was better than expected. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and consumption increased month - on - month [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials have supply pressure, but inventory reduction is significant, and apparent consumption is good. However, the consumption off - season is approaching, and consumption sustainability needs to be observed. The supply - demand pattern of strip steel has improved, but supply pressure remains, and inventory reduction pressure is still large. Short - term steel prices will oscillate, and future winter storage games and raw material support need to be observed [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures oscillated. Spot prices were generally weak and stable, and trading was dull. The cumulative trading volume of main ports in the country was 918,000 tons, an increase of 27.32% from the previous day. This week, the average daily hot metal output decreased slightly, port inventory decreased slightly, and the number of stranded ships increased [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore supply remains high, and inventory pressure persists. With steel mills' losses and production cuts, hot metal output has decreased month - on - month. Port inventory reduction and a decline in arrivals support prices, so the callback space for ore prices is limited, and they will likely oscillate within a range. Future hot metal output and downstream inventory changes need to be observed [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the prices of black - sector commodities generally fell, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Imported Mongolian coal prices weakened due to the decline in futures prices, trading was cold, and trading volume further declined. This week, coking coal production continued to increase, downstream coking plants and ports reduced inventory significantly, coke production decreased slightly, and overall inventory increased slightly [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic mines are gradually resuming production, Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high, and seaborne coal imports have also increased. Short - term coking coal supply has recovered month - on - month, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with insufficient speculative demand. The market focus is on the value of warehouse receipts. For coke, production restrictions in some areas have ended, supply has improved, hot metal output has decreased slightly, speculative demand has weakened, and coke supply and demand are in a weak balance [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke trading are both oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices have been slightly adjusted, and supply has tightened in some mines due to environmental protection and other factors, leading to a slight increase in prices. At present, coal prices are relatively high, and downstream buyers only purchase on demand, with speculative demand slowing down. At ports, inventory has accumulated due to navigation bans, market coal trading is sluggish, and downstream buyers are mainly waiting and watching. For imported coal, supply from Indonesia is low, and foreign mine quotes remain high due to existing profits [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Current supply recovery in the production area is limited, and downstream purchasing is more cautious. However, the consumption peak season has arrived, port inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and non - power demand downstream is strong. Short - term prices will oscillate strongly, and future overall consumption and inventory replenishment need to be observed [7]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The steel price is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with attention paid to the support level of 3000 for rebar and 3240 for hot-rolled coils. Short positions should be closed, and unilateral trading should be temporarily on hold [1][3] Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot prices in various regions decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and most futures contracts also declined [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of hot-rolled coils in some regions increased, while the profits of rebar in some regions decreased [1] - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, while the production of five major steel products increased by 1.9%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.0% [1] - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 8.5%, while the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 3.9%, with rebar and hot-rolled coils showing significant rebounds [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high-level fluctuation, and unilateral trading should be on hold [4] Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of some varieties changed [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 14.6% week-on-week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 17.2%. The demand side showed a slight decline in pig iron production and an increase in the port's daily average desilting volume [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 0.8% [4] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Both coke and coking coal are viewed as bearish in a range-bound manner. For coke, the reference range is 1550 - 1700, and for coking coal, it is 1050 - 1200. Temporarily hold off on trading [6] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke and coking coal futures prices decreased, and the basis of some contracts changed. The profits of coking plants and sample coal mines also changed [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The coke production decreased slightly, and the pig iron production decreased by 0.3%. The coking coal supply is expected to increase, but the production recovery is limited [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The overall inventory of coke and coking coal decreased slightly. The inventory of coking plants, ports, and steel mills decreased, while the inventory of coal mines and ports increased [6]

Report Summary - Report Date: November 20, 2025 - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Report 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Prices**: DCE01 closed at 788.5, down 3.0 from yesterday; DCE05 at 753.0, down 2.0; DCE09 at 728.0, down 2.0 [2] - **Spot Prices**: PB powder (60.8%) remained unchanged at 790; Newman powder dropped 2 to 790; Macarthur powder dropped 2 to 786; etc [2] - **Base Prices**: The optimal delivery product is Carajás fines, with 01 factory - warehouse basis at 46, 05 at 82, and 09 at 107 [2] - **Price Spreads**: Carajás fines - PB powder spread decreased 5 to 94; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder spread decreased 2 to 44; etc [2] - **Import Profits**: Carajás fines' import profit decreased 13 to 3; Newman powder's decreased 1 to 18; etc [2] - **Platts Index**: Platts 62% iron ore price dropped 0.1 to 105.1; Platts 65% dropped 0.1 to 117.1; Platts 58% dropped 0.1 to 93.9 [2] - **Domestic - Foreign Dollar Spreads**: SGX main - DCE01 spread decreased 1.0 to 2.2; SGX main - DCE05 spread decreased 0.7 to 6.8; SGX main - DCE09 spread decreased 0.5 to 10.0 [2] 2. Graphical Data - **Base Price Graphs**: There are graphs showing the basis between the optimal delivery product and 01, 05, 09 contracts over time [8][11] - **Import Profit Graphs**: Graphs display the import profits of PB powder, PB lump, Super Special powder, Carajás fines over the years [13][20] - **Price Spread Graphs**: Graphs show the price spreads of PB lump - PB powder, Carajás fines - PB powder, and iron ore domestic - foreign dollar spreads [24][28] - **Profit - Spread Relationship Graph**: A graph shows the relationship between steel mill cash profits and high - medium - low grade price spreads [28]

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations, with a slight increase in supply and a mixed demand outlook, leading to expectations of high-level oscillations in iron ore prices [7] Supply - Global iron ore shipments increased to 35.164 million tons, up by 4.774 million tons week-on-week, while the port arrival volume decreased to 22.689 million tons, down by 4.723 million tons [5] - The September import volume for the country reached 116.326 million tons, an increase of 1.101 million tons month-on-month [5] Demand - As of November 19, the average daily pig iron production was 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons week-on-week; the blast furnace operating rate was 82.81%, down by 0.32%; and the steel mill profit margin was 38.96%, down by 0.87% [4] - The daily consumption of imported ore was 2.9263 million tons, an increase of 39,300 tons week-on-week [4] Inventory - As of November 19, port inventory saw a slight decrease, with an average daily dispatch volume increasing week-on-week; however, steel mills' imported ore inventory rose by 661,000 tons [6] - The total inventory at 45 ports was 151.1445 million tons, down by 153,000 tons [6] Market Dynamics - The iron ore futures market showed volatility, with the main contract closing at 791.5 yuan per ton, down by 0.5 yuan (-0.06%) [2] - The basis for optimal delivery products such as lump ore and PB ore showed variances, with PB ore at 843.6 yuan per ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][5][8] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market showed a weakening trend with a decline in prices and a decrease in demand. It's recommended to take a bearish approach in trading [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is expected to remain volatile at a high level. It's advised to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading [5] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Both the coke and coking coal markets are expected to have a bearish and volatile trend. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines, with reference ranges of 1600 - 1700 for coke and 1100 - 1200 for coking coal [8] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Prices of most steel products decreased, such as the 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar stopped falling and rebounded to 215 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billet and slab remained unchanged, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in most regions decreased, and the profit of rebar in some regions changed [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.1%, but the output of five major steel products decreased by 2.6%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production also decreased [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.7%, with rebar inventory down 2.8%, and hot - rolled coil inventory basically unchanged [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume and the apparent demand of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils all decreased [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties increased, and the 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased [5] Supply - The weekly global iron ore shipment volume increased by 14.6%, but the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 17.2%. The monthly national import volume increased by 10.6% [5] Demand - The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1%, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 1.9%. The monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased [5] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [5] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices decreased, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed. The steel - linked coking profit decreased, while the sample coal mine profit increased [8] Supply - The weekly coke output of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.9%, and the daily output of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The weekly output of raw coal and clean coal of sample coal mines increased [8] Demand - The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1%, and the coke output of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills changed [8] Inventory Changes - Coke inventory in coking plants, steel mills, and ports decreased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly. Coking coal inventory in some sectors increased, and the overall inventory increased slightly [8] Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased, indicating a more unbalanced supply - demand relationship [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [3][4] - Thermal Coal: Sideways with a Bullish Bias [5] Core Views - Steel has inventory pressure, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Iron ore supply pressure remains, and prices will likely oscillate at high levels. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to early release of warehouse receipt pressure. Thermal coal prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, influenced by the winter heating season and other factors [1][2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices fluctuated weakly, and spot transactions were generally dull, with low - price rigid demand as the main driver. National building materials transactions were 9.23 tons, a 4.14% decrease from the previous day. Building materials production and sales declined, inventory decreased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, inventory declined, and consumption increased [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials production decreased, inventory continued to decline, apparent consumption was weak, and the fundamentals continued to face pressure. The contradictions of high inventory and high production of strip materials have not been resolved. Short - term prices will continue to fluctuate, and subsequent winter storage games and raw material support need to be observed [1] - **Strategy**: Single - side trading: Sideways; Other strategies: None [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices maintained a sideways trend, spot prices rose slightly, and transactions improved. National main port iron ore cumulative transactions were 72.1 tons, an 18.98% increase from the previous day [2] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore supply remained at a high level, inventory continued to increase, and steel mills were losing money and reducing production. There was a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal. However, considering the limited arrival volume of iron ore, the downward adjustment space for ore prices was insufficient, and they would likely maintain a range - bound operation. Subsequent hot metal production and downstream inventory changes need to be monitored [2] - **Strategy**: Single - side trading: Sideways; Other strategies: None [2] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices continued to fluctuate weakly. Imported Mongolian coal prices at ports declined due to the downward transmission of futures prices, and market trading volume continued to decline [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic production gradually recovered, Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level, and seaborne coal imports increased. Speculative demand decreased, and downstream maintained a rigid procurement rhythm. For coke, after four rounds of price increases, coking enterprise profits improved, but supply did not increase significantly. Although hot metal increased slightly, further steel mill production reduction plans need to be monitored. Currently, the coking coal trading focus is on the warehouse receipt value, and the market avoids subsequent warehouse receipt pressure through early price drops [3] - **Strategy**: Coking coal: Sideways; Coke: Sideways; Other strategies: None [3][4] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, coal prices rose slightly, and downstream procurement was acceptable, mostly on a demand - based basis. Supply was relatively stable, but some resources were difficult to ship, and miners were still optimistic. Port inspections were still strict, and some coal mines sold a small amount of goods as their tasks were almost completed. At ports, transactions were mainly long - term contracts, and downstream resistance to high - priced coal was high, with market coal transactions relatively cold. Due to gale - induced port closures, inventory slowly increased. Imported coal still had profit margins, and the market was active [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Current supply recovery in the producing areas was limited, and downstream procurement was more cautious. However, with the arrival of the winter heating season, port inventory accumulation was lower than expected, and non - power downstream demand was strong. Short - term prices will fluctuate strongly, and overall consumption and restocking need to be monitored [5]