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南华煤焦产业风险管理日报-20250709
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 03:58
南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/07/09 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 严志妮:Z0022076 张泫:F03118257 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 780-900 | 31.17% | 60.79% | | 焦炭 | 1350-1500 | 23.97% | 44.10% | source: 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存套保 | 焦炭盘面大幅升水现货,交割利润可观 | 多 | 做空J2509 | J2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1425-1450 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1450-1500 | source: 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | ...
南华贵金属日报:金跌银震-20250709
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 03:50
Report Overview - Report title: Nanhua Precious Metals Daily Report: Gold Down, Silver Stable [1] - Report date: July 9, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, but London gold has been range - bound since late April. In the short term, attention should be paid to the battle around the 3300 area for gold, with support at 3200 and resistance at 3365 and then 3400. For London silver, support is at 36.4, strong support at 35.3, and resistance at 37 - 37.3. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market saw gold decline and silver remain stable. The tariff trade war situation became clearer before July 9, and the negotiation window was extended to August 1, weakening gold's safe - haven demand. COMEX gold 2508 closed at $3311 per ounce, down 0.95%; SHFE gold 2510 closed at 776.22 yuan per gram, up 0.43%. COMEX silver 2509 closed at $36.925 per ounce, up 0.06%; SHFE silver 2510 closed at 8953 yuan per kilogram, up 0.22%. The US trade policy has drawn responses from many countries [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations are generally stable. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and 4.7% for a 25 - basis - point cut. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 34.3%, 62.8% for a 25 - basis - point cut, and 3% for a 50 - basis - point cut. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.15 tons to 946.51 tons, while iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 66.41 tons to 14935.15 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 4 tons to 1334.7 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 1319.9 tons as of July 4 [3] This Week's Focus - This week's data is light. Key events include the Fed's release of monetary policy meeting minutes at 2:00 on Thursday, a speech by 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Mousalem on the US economy and monetary policy at 21:00 on Thursday, and a speech by 2027 FOMC voter, San Francisco Fed President Daly on the US economic outlook at 02:30 on Friday [4] Precious Metals Price Table - SHFE gold main contract closed at 776.22 yuan per gram, up 0.64%; CME gold main contract closed at $3311 per ounce, down 1.06%. SHFE silver main contract closed at 8953 yuan per kilogram, up 0.91%; CME silver main contract closed at $36.925 per ounce, down 0.04%. The CME gold - silver ratio was 89.6682, down 1.02% [7] Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory was 21,558 kilograms, up 0.48%; CME gold inventory was 1146.9974 tons, up 0.43%. SHFE gold positions were 179,131 lots, up 1.92%. SHFE silver inventory was 1334.731 tons, up 0.3%; CME silver inventory was 15487.4574 tons, down 0.07%. SHFE silver positions were 338,144 lots, up 47.35% [17][18] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index was 97.5101, down 0.04%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1803, up 0.09%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44,406.36 points, down 0.94%. WTI crude oil spot was $67.93 per barrel, up 2.15%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.4%, up 1.15% [23]
国债期货日报-20250708
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 13:41
国债期货日报 2025年7月8日 反内卷 观点:波段思路,逢低入场 南华研究院 高翔(Z0016413) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评: 国债期货开盘跳水,全天震荡下行跌幅深化,明显收跌。资金依旧宽松,盘前大额隔夜匿名资金1.3%,银行 间和交易所资金价格平稳。 日内消息: 1.国家发改委等七部门联合发布《关于加快推进普惠托育服务体系建设的意见》。其中提出,支持用人单位 利用存量土地或设施规划建设托育服务设施,在符合国土空间规划要求并确保安全的前提下,可暂不变更土 地用途。 行情研判: 反内卷成为国内资本市场全天的主线,"反内卷"逻辑下,大宗商品整体走强,A股全天持续走高,500指数成 分中大宗相关更多,中小盘日内明显强于大盘,领涨市场。受风险资产影响,债市在连续盘整后终于下跌, 也算是为反内卷做出贡献。 | | 2025-07-08 | 2025-07-07 | 今日涨跌 | 上周同期 | | 2025-07-08 | 2025-07-07 | 今日涨跌 | 上周同期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...
8日30年期国债期货下跌0.22%,最新持仓变化
Xin Lang Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 08:28
文章来源:新浪期货 新浪期货 根据交易所数据,截至7月08日收盘主力合约30年期国债期货2509,涨跌-0.22%,成交量8.44万手,持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净多,差额头寸为586手。 30年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交9.09万手,比上一日新增3.13万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓12.29万手,比上一日减少117 手。全合约前20席位空头持仓12.50万手,比上一日减少2024手。 根据合并数据显示,多头前三席位为中信期货,总持仓27092、国泰君安,总持仓19119、东证期货,总持仓12674;空头前三席位 为东证期货,总持仓15487、银河期货,总持仓14674、中信期货,总持仓13424; 主力合约前20席位中,多头增仓前三名分别是:平安期货、持仓5379、增仓938,国金期货、持仓3448、增仓671,宏源期货、持 仓4252、增仓371;多头减仓前三名分别是:中信建投、持仓3270、减仓-961,国泰君安、持仓14903、减仓-597,申银万国、持 仓1208、减仓-454; 主力合约前20席位中,空头增仓前三名分别是:华泰期货、持仓5884、增仓374,中信建投、持仓1327、增仓248 ...
南华贵金属日报:剧烈震荡-20250708
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 07:59
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Group 2: Report's Core View - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but since late April, London gold has been trading in a range. For London gold, short - term support levels are at 3300 - 3320 and then 3200, with resistance at 3365 and then 3400. For London silver, support is at 36.4, strong support at 35.3, and resistance at 37 - 37.3. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market was highly volatile. The U.S. stock market declined, while the U.S. Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar index both rose. Bitcoin fell, crude oil rose, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals index declined. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3346.4 per ounce, up 0.1%; U.S. silver 2509 contract closed at $36.94 per ounce, down 0.39%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 771.3 yuan per gram, down 0.54%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8872 yuan per kilogram, down 0.5% [2]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 35.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 61.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 2.9%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 13.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.4%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 39.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 1.8%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 947.66 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 14868.7 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9 tons to 1330.7 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 34.6 tons to 1323.2 tons in the week ending June 27 [3]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week's economic data is relatively light. The main focus is on the determination of U.S. tariff rates on other countries before the end of the U.S. reciprocal tariff suspension period on July 9. Key events include the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision on Tuesday at 12:30, the Fed's release of its monetary policy meeting minutes on Thursday at 2:00, a speech by 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at 21:00 on Thursday, a speech by 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly on the U.S. economic outlook at 02:30 on Friday. Also, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio will visit Japan this week [4]. 4. Precious Metal Price Data - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 771.3 yuan per gram, down 0.74%. SGX gold TD is at 767.8 yuan per gram, down 0.49%. CME gold main contract is at $3346.4 per ounce, up 0.31%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 8872 yuan per kilogram, down 0.53%. SGX silver TD is at 8860 yuan per kilogram, down 0.28%. CME silver main contract is at $36.94 per ounce, down 0.53%. SHFE - TD gold is at 3.5 yuan per gram, down 36.25%. SHFE - TD silver is at 12 yuan per kilogram, up 126.67%. CME gold - to - silver ratio is 90.5901, up 0.58% [6][7]. 5. Inventory and Position Data - SHFE gold inventory is 21456 kilograms, unchanged. CME gold inventory is 1142.0304 tons, down 0.19%. SHFE gold position is 175760 lots, up 0.41%. SPDR gold position is 947.66 tons, unchanged. SHFE silver inventory is 1330.695 tons, down 0.68%. CME silver inventory is 15499.0707 tons, down 0.2%. SGX silver inventory is 1323.225 tons, down 2.55%. SHFE silver position is 229481 lots, down 8.47%. SLV silver position is 14868.735488 tons, unchanged [17][18]. 6. Other Market Data - The U.S. dollar index is at 97.5464, up 0.58%. The U.S. dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1741, up 0.76%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 44828.53 points, up 0.77%. WTI crude oil spot is at $66.5 per barrel, down 0.75%. LmeS copper 03 is at $9852 per ton, down 1%. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield is 4.35%, up 1.16%. The 10 - year U.S. real interest rate is 2.05%, up 1.49%. The 10 - 2 year U.S. Treasury yield spread is 0.47%, down 9.62% [23].
南华期货锡风险管理日报-20250708
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 07:59
Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the tin market remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [3][4]. Key Points by Section 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 263,520 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.01%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 13.9% [2]. - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call options when the volatility is appropriate. - For raw material management, when the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put options when the volatility is appropriate [2]. 2. Important News - **Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and lower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, resumption of production in Myanmar, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [4][5]. 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three are all 263,520 yuan/ton, 263,520 yuan/ton, and 263,360 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of LME Tin 3M is 33,770 US dollars/ton, down 35 US dollars (-0.1%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.92, down 0.02 (-0.25%) [5]. - **Spot Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 266,800 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan (-0.15%). The 1 tin premium is 400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (-33.33%). The prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates are 254,800 yuan/ton and 258,800 yuan/ton respectively, both down 400 yuan (-0.16% and -0.15% respectively). The prices of various types of solder bars and lead - free solder also show declines [8][11]. 4. Tin Import and Processing - The latest tin import loss is 17,666.1 yuan/ton, down 2,311.69 yuan (15.06%). The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged at 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,550 yuan/ton respectively [13]. 5. Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,868 tons, up 61 tons (0.9%). The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,343 tons, up 105 tons (2.48%), and in Shanghai is 1,600 tons, down 44 tons (-2.68%). The total LME tin inventory is 2,085 tons, down 25 tons (-1.18%) [18].
南华期货:境外孙公司获批芝加哥期权交易所清算所清算会员资格
news flash· 2025-07-08 07:53
南华期货(603093)公告,美国时间2025年7月7日,公司境外全资孙公司Nanhua USA LLC收到芝加哥 期权交易所清算所的通知,获批成为Cboe clear清算会员,具备其清算资格,可以清算Cboe clear上市的 期货期权和相关产品。 ...
贵金属数据日报-20250708
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 07:36
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate. The potential extension of the tariff suspension period and the strong US June non - farm data may suppress gold prices, but the uncertainty of tariff policies and China's continuous gold reserve increase may support gold prices. Silver shows better resilience than gold due to improved risk appetite and reduced US economic downside risks, but may be relatively pressured if tariff policies are disturbed [4]. - In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged due to the ongoing trade war, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut, global geopolitical uncertainties, and central banks' gold - buying. It is recommended to allocate gold on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver were all 0.00. AU2508 was 769.12 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8872.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) and AG (T + D) were 0.00 [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: London gold spot was 3342.39 dollars/ounce, London silver spot was 36.85 dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3351.90 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 37.04 dollars/ounce, AU2508 was 774.88 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8919.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 772.60 yuan/gram, AG (T + D) was 8901.00 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Changes**: The price of domestic and foreign gold and silver decreased, with the largest decline of 100.0% [3]. 2. Spread/Ratio Tracking - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 769.12 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 8872 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 2.28 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 18 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 33633.3%, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price increased by 49188.9% [3]. 3. Position Data - **July 3, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 256077 contracts, etc [3]. - **July 2, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 260586 contracts, etc [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 1.73%, and COMEX gold non - commercial short positions increased by 1.89% [3]. 4. Inventory Data - **July 7, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1330695.00 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 36785583 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 499281076 ounces [3]. - **July 4, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1339746 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 37048200 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 500183447 ounces [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.68%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.71%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.18% [3]. 5. Related Market Data - **July 7, 2025**: The US dollar index was 7.15 [4]. - **July 3, 2025**: The US dollar index was 97.12, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, the VIX was 16.38, the S&P 500 was 6279.35, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 67.18, and NYMEX crude oil was 1000 [4]. - **Market Data Changes**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.04%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 2.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.16%, the VIX decreased by 1.56%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.52% [4]. 6. Market News and Analysis - **News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that trade negotiations between the US and the EU were progressing, and major news might be announced in the next two days. Trump and the US Treasury Secretary said that countries would start paying new tariffs on August 1. China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported to be 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month [4]. - **Analysis**: On July 7, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.54% to 771.31 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.5% to 8872 yuan/kilogram. In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and silver prices are relatively resilient. In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged [4].
南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250708
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 03:41
Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 79,270 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 9.97%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 13.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: With a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of call options (CU2509C82000) when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase: With a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] News and Factors - Fundamental situation: Stable [3] - Bullish factors: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation and a decrease in LME inventory levels [4] - Bearish factors: Tariff policy fluctuations, a decrease in global demand due to tariff policies, the Fed maintaining high interest rates, the US dollar index hovering at a low level [5][6][8] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper main contract: 79,270 yuan/ton, with no daily change (0%) - Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract: 79,270 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan (- 0.58%) - Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract: 78,870 yuan/ton, with no daily change (0%) - LME Copper 3M: 9,852 US dollars/ton, down 99.5 US dollars (- 1%) - Shanghai - London ratio: 8.08, up 0.04 (0.5%) [7] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper: 79,885 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan (- 0.81%) - Shanghai Wumaotrade: 79,850 yuan/ton, down 575 yuan (- 0.71%) - Guangdong Nanchu: 79,790 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan (- 0.77%) - Yangtze Non - ferrous: 79,980 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan (- 0.74%) [9] Premium and Discount Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous copper spot premium: 95 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 17.39%) - Shanghai Wumaotrade copper spot premium: 10 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (- 71.43%) - Guangdong Nanchu copper spot premium: 50 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (- 33.33%) - Yangtze Non - ferrous copper spot premium: 75 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 21.05%) [9] Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Difference Tax - included - Current scrap - to - refined copper price difference: 1,507.13 yuan/ton, down 198.08 yuan (- 11.62%) - Reasonable scrap - to - refined copper price difference: 1,498.05 yuan/ton, down 7.3 yuan (- 0.48%) - Price advantage: 9.08 yuan/ton, down 190.78 yuan (- 95.46%) [10] Tax - excluded - Current scrap - to - refined copper price difference: 6,205 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan (- 3.57%) - Reasonable scrap - to - refined copper price difference: 6,238.47 yuan/ton, down 50.66 yuan (- 0.81%) - Price advantage: - 33.47 yuan/ton, down 179.34 yuan (- 122.95%) [11] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) - Total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts: 21,682 tons, down 625 tons (- 2.8%) - Total International Copper warehouse receipts: 3,404 tons, with no change (0%) - Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai: 11,616 tons, down 500 tons (- 4.13%) - Total bonded Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts: 0 tons, with no change (- 100%) - Total duty - paid Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts: 21,682 tons, down 625 tons (- 2.8%) [14] LME - Total LME copper inventory: 97,400 tons, up 2,125 tons (2.23%) - LME copper inventory in Europe: 31,225 tons, down 50 tons (- 0.16%) - LME copper inventory in Asia: 64,050 tons, up 1,000 tons (1.59%) - Total LME copper registered warehouse receipts: 60,525 tons, down 800 tons (- 1.3%) - Total LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts: 36,875 tons, up 2,925 tons (8.62%) [16] COMEX - Total COMEX copper inventory: 220,954 tons, up 13,063 tons (6.28%) - Total COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts: 102,553 tons, down 6,004 tons (- 4.13%) - Total COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts: 118,401 tons, up 12,201 tons (11.49%) [18] Copper Import Profit and Processing - Copper import profit: - 1,146.49 yuan/ton, down 186.63 yuan (19.44%) - Copper concentrate TC: - 43.33 US dollars/ton, with no change (0%) [19]
南华煤焦产业风险管理日报-20250707
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 14:07
双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 780-900 | 31.00% | 60.43% | | 焦炭 | 1350-1500 | 24.12% | 44.76% | source: 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存套保 | 焦炭盘面大幅升水现货,交割利润可观 | 多 | 做空J2509 | J2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1425-1450 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1450-1500 | source: 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/07/07 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 严志妮:Z0022076 张泫:F03118257 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 | | ...