此次活动采用"健步走+知识通关"模式，环湖步道沿途设置证券、银行、保险、期货、信托等17个金融 机构特色展位，重点聚焦防范非法金融活动主题，通过模拟荐股骗局、拆解假冒金融机构话术、剖析伪 金融中介套路等情景互动，让参与者身临其境识别非法金融活动陷阱。在公安机关与基层治理单位的展 位上，工作人员聚焦当前高发经济犯罪领域，运用案例剖析、风险预警、防范指南等多种形式深化群众 认知，有效提升公众风险识别能力。参与者手持定制打卡地图，每完成相应站点的知识挑战即可获得一 枚刻有甘肃人文景观的印章。参与者仿佛手持通关文牒，完成各类"识破非法集资陷阱""破解股市黑嘴 迷局""揭穿养老理财骗术"等情景挑战，让金融安全知识沿着千年丝路文脉流淌入心。 活动现场打造的沉浸式学习空间形成了立体防护网：知识普及区变身"金融术语解码站"，通过互动展板 破解各金融行业的专业概念；风险警示区架设"行业照妖镜"，集中呈现证券"非法荐股"、银行"非法中 介"、保险"代理退保"等不同领域典型非法案例；咨询答疑区设立"纠纷化解指南针（300803）"，现场 演示"调解－仲裁－诉讼"三级维权路径，特别公示甘肃辖区调解机构，为金融消费者和投资者的合法权 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: May 15, 2025 - Analysts: Yuan Ming (Z0012648), Chen Mintao (F03118345) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Silicon manganese maintains a trend of production - cut pricing. Although the pressure of high supply has eased, supply still exceeds demand due to weak downstream demand. There is still high - inventory pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound as many short - sellers take profits and leave the market. Silicon iron increased production this week, with inventory reduction and an increase in warrant registration. Although high hot metal in downstream demand still provides some support, the high - inventory pattern of ferroalloys remains unchanged. With the cooling of macro - optimistic sentiment in the short term, ferroalloys are expected to show bottom - range fluctuations [3] Summary by Directory Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range (monthly): 5700 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.69%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 6.9% - Silicon manganese price range (monthly): 5500 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.73%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 27.9% [2] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and recommended entry intervals of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and recommended entry intervals of SF: 5300 - 5400, SM: 5300 - 5400 [2] 利多解读 Silicon Iron - High hot metal supports the demand for silicon iron - After continuous decline, low - valued silicon iron may rebound - Uncertainty of tariffs is greatly reduced in the short - term due to Sino - US tariff negotiations, warming market sentiment - Silicon iron factory inventory decreased by 11.8% compared with the previous period [7] Silicon Manganese - Decline in开工率 and production, with increased losses of producers recently, strengthening the willingness to cut production and some areas having shutdown for maintenance - Strict government control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry - Uncertainty of tariffs is greatly reduced in the short - term due to Sino - US tariff negotiations, warming market sentiment [7] 利空解读 Silicon Iron - Silicon iron production increased by 3.9% this week, and warrants increased by 7.77% compared with the previous period - High inventory level of silicon iron suppresses prices as market demand recovery lags behind supply growth [12] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese factory inventory continued to accumulate, with a 13.9% increase compared with the previous period as of May 11 - High factory inventory combined with high warrants increases the total inventory, suppressing price increases due to oversupply [12] Daily Data Silicon Iron - On May 14, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 114, with a daily - on - daily change of - 104 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 146; the 01 - 05 spread was 82, with a daily - on - daily change of 18 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 0; the 05 - 09 spread was - 32, with a daily - on - daily change of - 8 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 6; the 09 - 01 spread was - 50, with a daily - on - daily change of - 10 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 6 - Silicon iron spot prices in different regions had different changes, and the number of warrants was 19189, with a daily - on - daily increase of 141 and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 161 [10] Silicon Manganese - On May 14, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 64, with a daily - on - daily change of - 78 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 184; the 01 - 05 spread was 128, with a daily - on - daily change of - 2 and a weekly - on - weekly change of - 24; the 05 - 09 spread was - 74, with a daily - on - daily change of - 2 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 0; the 09 - 01 spread was - 54, with a daily - on - daily change of 4 and a weekly - on - weekly change of 24 - Silicon manganese spot prices in different regions had different changes, and the number of warrants was 118553, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 140 and a weekly - on - weekly decrease of 1621 [11]

主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：永安期货、持仓8077、增仓1806，国联期货、持仓3768、增仓679，广发期货、持 仓5338、增仓463；空头减仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓10614、减仓-3321，中信期货、持仓14308、减仓-2244，中泰期货、 持仓7083、减仓-2084。 文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年5月15日尿素全合约持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 壇減 | | 会员 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | ਹ | 国泰君安 | 105,456 | 5,707 | 东证期货 | 20,951 | 1.663 | 国泰君安 | 23,804 | -542 | | 2 | 东证期货 | 90.753 | -3.073 | 国泰君女 | 20,876 | -2,934 | 一德期货 | 17,109 | 44 | | 3 | 中信期货 | 83,283 | 1,470 | 中 ...

聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 7100-7400 | 19.44% | 90.6% | source： 南华研究 聚乙烯套保策略表 1. 内需情况持续偏弱，农膜仍处于产销淡季。 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情 | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 塑料价格下跌 | 多 | 况，做空塑料期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7300- 7400 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the daily market tracking data of commodity indices, including the performance of macro - indicators,主力合约 of various commodities, and provides morning meeting viewpoints on major varieties, as well as macro - economic news [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Macro - indicators**: On May 15, 2025, compared with the previous day, the Dow Jones Industrial Index decreased by 0.212% to 42051.06, the Nasdaq Index increased by 0.719% to 19146.81, the S&P 500 increased by 0.102% to 5892.58, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.304% to 23640.65, SHIBOR overnight decreased by 0.071% to 1.41, the US dollar index decreased by 0.120% to 100.96, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.21 [2]. - **主力合约**: COMEX gold decreased by 2.268% to 3180.70, COMEX silver decreased by 2.115% to 32.39, LME copper decreased by 0.078% to 9592.00, LME aluminum increased by 1.305% to 2522.50, LME zinc increased by 2.089% to 2761.50, LME lead increased by 0.176% to 1992.50, LME tin increased by 0.516% to 32890.00, LME nickel increased by 0.413% to 15800.00, ICE11 -号 sugar decreased by 0.550% to 18.08, ICE2 -号 cotton decreased by 1.295% to 65.55, CBOT soybeans increased by 0.093% to 1076.00, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 0.545% to 292.00, CBOT soybean oil increased by 1.065% to 52.20, CBOT corn increased by 0.508% to 444.75, NYMEX crude oil decreased by 1.163% to 62.89, and ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.126% to 65.85 [2]. - **Domestic commodities**: For metals, gold decreased by 1.712% to 748.68, silver decreased by 1.342% to 8085.00, copper decreased by 0.367% to 78650.00, zinc increased by 0.396% to 22800.00, aluminum increased by 0.074% to 20255.00, tin decreased by 0.109% to 265480.00, lead increased by 0.531% to 17025.00, nickel increased by 0.248% to 125540.00, iron ore increased by 0.068% to 737.50, alumina increased by 1.154% to 2979.00, rebar decreased by 0.256% to 3119.00, stainless steel decreased by 0.115% to 13065.00, and hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.337% to 3256.00 [2]. - **Domestic chemical products**: Coke decreased by 0.270% to 1478.00, natural rubber decreased by 0.328% to 15185.00, 20 -号 rubber decreased by 0.384% to 12985.00, plastic increased by 0.177% to 7352.00, polypropylene PP decreased by 0.097% to 7186.00, (PTA) decreased by 0.082% to 4870.00, asphalt decreased by 0.142% to 3516.00, methanol decreased by 0.507% to 2353.00, ethylene glycol decreased by 0.289% to 4493.00, styrene increased by 1.214% to 7840.00, glass decreased by 0.860% to 1037.00, crude oil decreased by 0.411% to 484.60, fuel oil decreased by 0.033% to 3056.00, soda ash decreased by 0.595% to 1337.00, pulp remained unchanged at 5378.00, caustic soda decreased by 0.237% to 2524.00, PX decreased by 0.058% to 6876.00, and LPG decreased by 0.735% to 4324.00 [4]. - **Domestic agricultural products**: Yellow soybean 1 increased by 0.216% to 4183.00, yellow soybean 2 decreased by 0.560% to 3552.00, soybean meal decreased by 0.549% to 2898.00, rapeseed meal decreased by 0.399% to 2499.00, soybean oil decreased by 0.202% to 7898.00, rapeseed oil decreased by 0.064% to 9432.00, palm oil decreased by 0.098% to 8176.00, white sugar decreased by 0.305% to 5888.00, yellow corn decreased by 0.382% to 2347.00, corn starch decreased by 0.259% to 2695.00, No.1 cotton increased by 0.074% to 13455.00, and cotton yarn decreased by 0.152% to 19745.00 [4]. 3.2 Macro - Economic News - China's counter - measures against the US fentanyl - related tariffs remain in effect. The US imposed two rounds of tariffs on China under the pretext of fentanyl, and China took counter - measures in a timely manner [7]. - To implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks, China has suspended the inclusion of 28 US entities in the export control list and 17 US entities in the unreliable entity list for 90 days starting from May 14. The US has adjusted its tariffs on Chinese goods, revoking 91% of the tariffs and implementing 34% of reciprocal tariffs, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. It has also adjusted the tax on small - value parcels [7]. - In April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, accelerating from the previous month. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 16.34 trillion yuan. In April, the average interest rate of new corporate loans was about 3.2%, about 4 basis points lower than the previous month [8]. - China's first comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut in 2025 has taken effect. Starting from May 15, the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions has been lowered by 0.5 percentage points (excluding those already implementing a 5% reserve requirement ratio), and the reserve requirement ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies has been lowered by 5 percentage points, expected to inject about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity into the market [8]. - Seven departments, including the central bank and the financial regulatory authority, have jointly issued a document proposing 15 policy measures to promote the development of science and technology finance in seven aspects, providing full - life - cycle and full - chain financial services for scientific and technological innovation [8]. - The director of the National Development and Reform Commission has held a symposium for private enterprises, stating that existing policies will be promoted to take effect earlier, and incremental policies will be studied and reserved according to the situation [9]. - On Wednesday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2083 at 16:30, down 71 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.2090 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 35 basis points to 7.1956, the highest since April 3 [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is relatively stable, with oil mills' demand providing some support. There are few topics for speculation. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - **Oils and fats**: About 15% of the US soybean - growing areas are affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week. Argentina has raised its forecast for the 2024/25 soybean harvest. The external oil market lacks strong support. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - **Sugar**: On May 14, the sugar futures contract closed at 5906 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. The supply in Brazil has decreased significantly, while domestic demand is strong. However, the opening of the import profit window may bring pressure. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, with resistance at 5950 yuan/ton and support at 5850 yuan/ton [11]. - **Corn**: On May 14, the corn futures contract closed at 2356 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The supply in the northern ports is decreasing, but wheat substitution suppresses demand. It is recommended to maintain a short - term bearish view, with support at 2340 yuan/ton [11]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price is stable with a slight decline. The supply exceeds demand, and the consumption is weak. The futures contract is oscillating at the bottom of the range. It is recommended to operate intraday [11]. - **Eggs**: The national egg spot price is stable. Food factories' demand for the Dragon Boat Festival is increasing, but the trade volume is decreasing. The egg price has limited room for further increase, and the medium - term capacity pressure remains [11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic soda**: The supply in Shandong is narrowing, but non - aluminum industries' demand is cautious. The 2509 contract has rebounded [13]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price is stable, with high daily production. The inventory has decreased significantly. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is decreasing seasonally, while agricultural demand is increasing. The market may continue to oscillate at a high level [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum have been boosted by the progress of China - US negotiations. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous gap positions [13]. - **Alumina**: Some alumina plants have maintenance and production - reduction plans, and new production capacity is ramping up. The cost has decreased, and the 2509 contract has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 3000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: The spot market has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The steel prices are expected to continue to rebound, with resistance at 3150 - 3200 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coil [14]. - **Silicon iron and silicon manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are stable. The steel mills' pressure on prices is obvious. The two products may rebound slightly, with resistance at 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton for silicon iron and 6000 yuan/ton for silicon manganese [14]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The coking coal market is weak, and the coke price is under pressure. The two products are stable in the short term but remain relatively weak [14]. - **Lithium carbonate**: On May 14, the futures contract closed at 65200 yuan/ton, up 3%. The supply has decreased, but the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see the effectiveness of the breakthrough, with resistance at 68000 yuan/ton and support at 63500 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Options**: On May 14, the three major A - share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points. The trading volume was 1.35 trillion yuan. The futures indices of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 all rose with increased positions and volume. The PCR of option trading volume decreased, while the PCR of option positions increased, and the implied volatility increased. Trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles after the volatility decreases [17].

根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安，总持仓82692、中信期货，总持仓80867、银河期货，总持仓41136；空头前三席位 为国泰君安，总持仓56642、中信期货，总持仓53539、东证期货，总持仓30664； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：东亚期货、持仓10179、增仓7576，国投期货、持仓12653、增仓7364，国贸期 货、持仓7712、增仓5834；多头减仓前二名分别是：国泰君安、持仓19712、减仓-7856，乾坤期货、持仓9702、减仓-754； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓26832、增仓11668，中信期货、持仓19968、增仓8189，永安期 货、持仓8285、增仓4754；空头减仓前一名分别是：国信期货、持仓4651、减仓-771。 文章来源:新浪期货 2025年5月15日白银主力合约2508持仓数据一览 新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至5月15日收盘主力合约白银2508,涨跌-2.34%,成交量93.60万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净多， 差额头寸为21657手。 白银期货全合约总计成交147.74万手，比上一日新增44.99万手。全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic and international precious metal futures have experienced a significant decline on May 15, 2025, with both gold and silver prices dropping across the board [1][2]. Price Movements - Domestic gold futures (沪金) closed at 739.82 CNY per gram, down 3.20% from the previous day, while domestic silver futures (沪银) closed at 8008.00 CNY per kilogram, down 2.34% [1]. - International gold futures (COMEX) were priced at 3151.80 USD per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.91%, and international silver futures (COMEX) were at 32.04 USD per ounce, down 1.08% [1]. Market Analysis - On May 14, COMEX gold showed a downward trend, closing at 3180.7 USD per ounce, with a decline of 2.07% [4]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is at 91.7%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is at 8.3% [4].

智通财经5月15日电，北京金融法院审判第二庭庭长丁宇翔5月15日在北京金融法院新闻发布会上表示， 北京金融法院将发布一批司法保护资本市场投资者权益的典型案例，涉及证券、期货、基金等领域的投 资者保护。这批典型案例一是明确资管产品管理人责任的司法认定标准，切实保护资管产品投资者权 利。案例1某投资者与某基金公司合同纠纷一案，审判团队以该案中发现的问题为起点，梳理总结了资 管产品管理人尽职调查义务的司法认定标准，形成资管产品管理人尽职调查义务的"六步审查法"，为此 类案件的办理提供了可资参考的标准和规则，有力引导了资管行业的展业标准。 北京金融法院发布一批司法保护资本市场投资者权益典型案例 ...

贵金属日报：波动加大 明显回调 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月15日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属价格明显调整，伦敦金价在跌破近期震荡区间下沿3200后加速下行，国内黄金ETF呈现流 出现象，其中华安黄金ETF份额从5月13日的82.2亿份，下降至81.5亿份。相较之下，伦敦银目前仍在震 荡区间内运行。周边美指先抑后扬，10Y美债收益率继续上行，美股涨跌不一。最终黄金2506合约收报 3180.7美元/盎司，-2.07%；美白银2507合约收报于32.39美元/盎司，-2.15%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合 约收报761.72元/克，-0.11%；SHFE白银2506合约收8195元/千克，+0.16%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.7%，降息25个基点的概率为 8.3%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为63.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为34.2%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为2.6%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率31.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为48.7%，累计降息 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of investor education in the futures market, which is currently less understood compared to stocks and funds, and highlights the need for innovative practices in this area [2][4] - The State Council has issued guidelines aimed at enhancing the quality of the futures market to better serve the real economy, indicating a strategic focus on improving investor understanding and engagement [2] - Guangfa Futures is exploring a unique approach to investor education by combining professional foundations with emotional storytelling, and leveraging technology to address the complexities of the futures market [2][4] Group 2 - Investor education plays a crucial role in helping futures investors understand trading rules, strategies, and risk characteristics, which is essential for making informed decisions and avoiding unnecessary losses [4] - Guangfa Futures has established a dedicated investor education team led by senior management, ensuring effective organization and collaboration across various business departments [4] - The company has implemented a resource integration mechanism to consolidate internal educational resources, enhancing the overall effectiveness of investor education efforts [4]