Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides trend judgments and trading strategies for various futures products based on fundamental and quantitative indicators. It analyzes the market conditions of different sectors, including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agriculture, and energy - chemical industries, and offers corresponding investment suggestions. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Information - China's new LPR remains unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1 - year at 3.0% and the 5 - year and above at 3.5% [10] - The Fed's July meeting minutes show that almost all policymakers support not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There are differences among officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [10] - Multiple rural banks in Zhejiang, Guizhou, Jilin, etc., have lowered deposit rates, while many banks have launched large - value certificates of deposit with an annual interest rate of over 2% [10] - The US federal budget deficit is expected to reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than the CBO's January forecast [11] 2. Macro Finance 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider long - term buying on dips. The A - share market rebounded strongly on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high. The semiconductor industry chain was strong, and sectors such as GPU, servers, and liquor led the rise [13] 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The curve steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term cycle. The money market initially tightened and then eased. The stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious, and the long - end yield was strongly suppressed by the asset comparison logic [14] 3. Black Commodities 3.1 Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Policy tone is milder. Seasonal demand is weak, but the medium - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Steel mill profits are stable, and prices are expected to fluctuate. The futures price of rebar is affected by the rumored large - scale warehouse receipts [15][16][17] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may enter a high - level oscillation stage. Supply may be tight in the short term, but there is also downward pressure from factors such as the possible decline in steel mill iron - water production and sufficient imported Mongolian coal supply [17][18] 3.3 Ferroalloys - After the sharp decline in the double - silicon futures price, the short - term fundamentals have no rebound logic. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and consider taking profits on dips if there is a sharp decline [19] 4. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 4.1 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to rebound, and it is advisable to buy on dips because of downstream replenishment, the approaching peak season, and the expected Fed interest - rate cut. Alumina prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to sell on rallies due to supply surplus [21][22] 4.2 Zinc - Social zinc inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. Zinc prices will oscillate downward as the macro - impact fades and the overseas inventory decline slows down [23] 4.3 Lithium Carbonate - Prices are expected to rise first and then fall. There is a short - term supply gap, but the fourth - quarter fundamentals will loosen, and the global lithium resource balance sheet is in surplus [24] 4.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate as the polysilicon复产 supports de - stocking. Polysilicon is mainly affected by policy progress, with wide - range oscillations [25][27] 5. Agricultural Products 5.1 Cotton - In the long - term, it is advisable to sell on rallies due to weak downstream demand and future production increase pressure. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to macro and supply - demand changes [29][30] 5.2 Sugar - Domestic sugar inventory is low, but the expected increase in processed sugar restricts prices. Pay attention to the short - covering opportunity during the Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking period [32] 5.3 Eggs - The supply pressure is high, and the futures contract is at a premium. It is recommended to reduce short positions gradually and be cautious about bottom - fishing [33] 5.4 Apples - The strategy is to conduct light - position positive spreads due to rainfall in the western production area [34] 5.5 Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see as the spot market in Hebei is stable and weak, and the futures price oscillates widely [36] 5.6 Pigs - The short - term spot price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is recommended to be cautiously short on near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [37][38] 6. Energy - Chemical Industry 6.1 Crude Oil - EIA inventory reduction is short - term positive. In the long - term, the market may turn to a supply - surplus situation. It is advisable to try shorting on rallies [39] 6.2 Fuel Oil - The price follows the trend of crude oil. The market is affected by factors such as the peak power - generation season in the Middle East, weak shipping, and inventory accumulation [39] 6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and are expected to oscillate weakly. However, the expectation of eliminating backward capacity in the petrochemical industry may drive up prices. It is recommended to close previous short positions and wait and see [39][40] 6.4 Rubber - There is no obvious short - term contradiction in the fundamentals. It is advisable to short on dips with a stop - loss and be cautious about chasing high prices [42] 6.5 Methanol - The port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see due to the impact of the expectation of eliminating backward capacity in the petrochemical industry [43] 6.6 Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable, and the futures price has risen significantly. It is advisable for long - positions to take profits at an appropriate time [44] 6.7 Asphalt - The price follows the trend of crude oil. The asphalt market is in the off - season, with slow inventory reduction [45] 6.8 Polyester Industry Chain - It is advisable to try going long on dips. The PX supply - demand pattern is in tight balance, the PTA supply is tight, and the terminal demand shows signs of recovery [46][47] 6.9 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price is expected to decline as the Russia - Ukraine issue eases. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the medium - term [48] 6.10 Pulp - The coniferous pulp market is weak. It is recommended to observe whether the port de - stocking continues and whether the spot trading improves [49] 6.11 Logs - The fundamentals are oscillating. It is recommended to observe and consider hedging at high prices according to the spot situation [50] 6.12 Urea - The domestic demand is weak, and the market follows a wide - range oscillation pattern. Pay attention to the changes in China's urea export volume [50]

Group 1: Market Data and Central Bank Operations - DROO1 closed at 1.47 with a 2.26 bp increase, DR007 at 1.55 with a 3.08 bp increase, GC001 at 1.70 with a 46.50 bp increase, and GC007 at 1.60 with a 10.50 bp increase. SHBOR 3M was at 1.55 with a 0.10 bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change. 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds were at 1.39 (0.44 bp increase), 1.63 (-0.56 bp decrease), and 1.77 (-1.82 bp decrease) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds were at 4.34 with a 1.00 bp increase [4] - The central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan [4] - The central bank released its Q2 2025 monetary policy report. Overseas, US tariff policies increase global economic recovery uncertainty and some economies have sticky inflation. Domestically, with measures to regulate low - price competition and boost consumption, the central bank believes there are more positive factors for a moderate recovery in price levels and expects an improvement. Monetary policy continues the tone of the Politburo meeting at the end of July, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [4] Group 2: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed at 4223 (-0.38%), 2812 (-0.93%), 6655.3 (-0.19%), and 7242.8 (0.07%) respectively. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.5884 trillion yuan, a decrease of 175.8 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors showed more gains than losses, with sectors like automobile services, brewing, real - estate services leading the gains, and insurance, electronic chemicals, shipbuilding, and securities leading the losses [5] - Yesterday, stock indices rose first and then fell. Currently, the valuation still provides support. Taking the CSI 300 as an example, although the current P/E ratio has risen to 15.9 (at the 83% historical percentile), the equity risk premium (ERP) remains at a relatively high historical level (about the 68% percentile). This means that from the perspective of the relative cost - effectiveness of stock - bond investment, stocks can still provide higher potential return compensation compared to risk - free assets. With the liquidity support from Huijin, valuation factors are expected to continue to play a supporting role. At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation and its potential impact on domestic interest - rate cut space [6] Group 3: Futures Contract Data - For IF, the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts had an annualized premium rate of 2.00%, 1.75%, 1.75%, and 1.84% respectively; for IH, -1.25%, -0.70%, -0.66%, and -0.52% respectively; for IC, 9.79%, 9.18%, 8.65%, and 8.12% respectively; for IM, 10.64%, 9.93%, 9.39%, and 9.26% respectively [7] - The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decreased. IF trading volume decreased by 27.3 to 109,269, and open interest decreased by 5.6 to 258,257; IH trading volume decreased by 15.8 to 62,436, and open interest decreased by 3.3 to 103,724; IC trading volume decreased by 22.3 to 102,352, and open interest decreased by 2.3 to 220,750; IM trading volume decreased by 19.4 to 236,188, and open interest decreased by 4.0 to 376,950 [5]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The trading data for the CSI 1000 index futures as of August 5 shows a slight increase in the main contract price, with a closing value of 2509, reflecting a change of +0.90%. The overall trading volume decreased compared to the previous day, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards net short positions among the top 20 holders [1]. Group 1: Trading Volume and Positions - The total trading volume for all contracts was 155,300 lots, a decrease of 33,900 lots from the previous day [1]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 225,700 lots, down by 6,788 lots, while short positions totaled 267,600 lots, down by 5,758 lots [1][4]. - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan (41,829 lots), CITIC Futures (38,397 lots), and Haitong Futures (14,261 lots) [1][4]. Group 2: Changes in Long and Short Positions - The top three increases in long positions were from Shenyin Wanguo (3,799 lots, +165), Ruida Futures (2,157 lots, +133), and Guoxin Futures (2,724 lots, +63) [1]. - The top three decreases in long positions were from CITIC Futures (20,067 lots, -2,004), Zhongtai Futures (4,564 lots, -959), and Haitong Futures (8,318 lots, -800) [1]. - The top three increases in short positions were from Dongzheng Futures (6,795 lots, +187), Galaxy Futures (4,937 lots, +165), and Guoxin Futures (4,913 lots, +142) [1]. - The top three decreases in short positions were from CITIC Futures (36,047 lots, -1,144), Zhongtai Futures (3,267 lots, -1,037), and Everbright Futures (1,970 lots, -715) [1].

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至7月30日收盘主力合约中证1000指数期货2509,涨跌-0.43%,成交量14.48万手，持仓数据显示前20席 位呈现净空，差额头寸为19037手。 中证1000指数期货期货全合约总计成交23.13万手，比上一日新增4.27万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓24.41万手，比上一日增加 1.59万手。全合约前20席位空头持仓28.04万手，比上一日增加1.42万手。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：小浪快报 文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年7月30日中证1000指数期货主力合约2509持仓数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | ਹ | 中信期货 | 44,253 | 8,972 | 国泰君安 | 25.416 | 1.866 | 中信期货 | 38,221 | 3,115 | | 2 | 国泰君安 | 39,4 ...

根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安，总持仓41001、中信期货，总持仓38149、海通期货，总持仓17228；空头前三席位 为中信期货，总持仓61232、国泰君安，总持仓44532、海通期货，总持仓18296； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：永安期货、持仓4234、增仓398，广发期货、持仓4110、增仓369，宝城期货、持 仓3348、增仓159；多头减仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓22239、减仓-2641，中信期货、持仓19336、减仓-1620，海通期货、 持仓9255、减仓-1342； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前一名分别是：国投期货、持仓5691、增仓246；空头减仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓 22158、减仓-2742，中信期货、持仓34838、减仓-2604，海通期货、持仓7655、减仓-574。 文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年7月16日中证1000指数期货主力合约2509持仓数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名 ...

Core Insights - The main contract for the CSI 1000 Index futures closed at 2509, with a slight decrease of 0.28% as of July 2, 2025, and a total trading volume of 93,400 contracts [1][2] - The total trading volume for all contracts was 165,700, which is a decrease of 16,100 contracts compared to the previous day [1][4] - The top 20 positions showed a net short position with a difference of 18,877 contracts [1] Position Data Summary - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan with a total holding of 40,430 contracts, CITIC Futures with 35,573 contracts, and Haitong Futures with 17,865 contracts [1][4] - The top three short positions were held by CITIC Futures with 58,327 contracts, Guotai Junan with 41,890 contracts, and Haitong Futures with 16,412 contracts [1][4] - The top three long position increases were from Haitong Futures (+467), Zheshang Futures (+241), and Guoxin Futures (+221) [1] - The top three long position decreases were from CITIC Futures (-1,825), Guotai Junan (-1,758), and Huatai Futures (-788) [1] - The top three short position increases were from Guoxin Futures (+419), Galaxy Futures (+148), and Ping An Futures (+82) [1] - The top three short position decreases were from CITIC Futures (-1,715), Guotai Junan (-1,581), and Haitong Futures (-604) [1]

Macroeconomy - The central bank plans to intensify monetary policy regulation, maintain ample liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. It aims to explore the normalization of "swap facilities and stock repurchase and increase re - loans" and support securities, funds, and insurance companies to participate in market stability. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7% (+0.2%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5% (+0.2%). However, the PMI of small enterprises dropped to 47.3% (-2.0%)[2] - The closing prices of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.33%, and 0.28% respectively compared to the previous day. The basis of IM/IC expanded significantly, while that of IH/IF changed moderately[2] - The four major indices show a pattern of multiple strengths and few weaknesses. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on small and medium - cap index futures on dips, and the opportunity of band trading for large - cap index futures[2] Crude Oil - The situation in the Middle East has eased. The market is speculating about the Fed's potential interest rate cut in July and the expected production increase at the OPEC+ meeting in July. There are reports that Saudi Arabia may seek to increase production to regain lost market share[3] - Trump tweeted that he would lower oil prices and encourage the US to invest heavily in new oil fields. The number of US oil wells has dropped to the lowest level since November 2021. After the cooling of the Iran - Israel conflict, the risk premium has declined significantly, leading to a large - scale decline in crude oil prices. Although the summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US crude oil and refined product inventories continue to decline while refining activities increase, providing some support to oil prices, in the long - term, the price center of crude oil will move downward[3] - Attention should be paid to the support level of around $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract[3] Gold - In May, the year - on - year core PCE was 2.7% (previous value 2.6%, expected 2.6%), and the month - on - month was 0.2% (previous value 0.1%); the year - on - year overall PCE was 2.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, both in line with expectations. The final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June was 60.7 (previous value 60.3), and the long - term inflation expectation dropped to 4%. The progress of trade negotiations has weakened the demand for hedging[4] - Powell's congressional testimony released a dovish stance, indicating that if tariffs do not cause a sharp rise in inflation, there may be an interest rate cut in September. The market's pricing of the probability of an interest rate cut in September has risen to 78% (CME data), but there are still differences in the stickiness of inflation[4] - Spot gold may test the resistance area of $3295 - $3306 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and PMI data in June and the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill[6] Silver - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the Senate on June 29. The CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by $2.77 trillion in the next decade. The Fed has kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. The median interest rate expectation for 2025 is 3.9% (the same as in March), and the expectations for 2026 - 2027 have been raised to 3.6%/3.4%. Seven voting members support no interest rate cut in 2025, and Powell emphasized that "tariff inflation is not a one - time shock"[7] - There is a certain possibility that the Fed will lower the policy interest rate in the second half of the year. When the Fed's easing expectation increases, the international silver price will show a stronger trend. The key support level is around $35 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data and PMI in June and be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" that may suppress the easing expectation[7] Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 190 yuan/ton. In July, PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 78.61%, a decrease of 2.94% month - on - month. The spot processing fee is 427.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.674 yuan/ton month - on - month. In mid - to - late June, 1.8 million tons of equipment entered the maintenance cycle (accounting for 3.2% of the total capacity), supporting the short - term de - stocking process. However, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in July[8] - The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.63%, a decrease of 0.61% month - on - month, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load is 59.01%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month, and the terminal order days are 9.06 days, a decrease of 0.36 days month - on - month. The textile and clothing industry is entering the off - season, the demand side is continuously sluggish, and some enterprises have the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being[8] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 57 yuan/ton. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 60.4%, an increase of 1.4% month - on - month, and the coal - based operating rate is 57.26%, an increase of 0.95% month - on - month. The weekly output is 36.97 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports in East China has decreased by 3.13 tons to 50.57 tons and has been de - stocking for three consecutive weeks[9] - Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, 3 sets of equipment with a total capacity of 1.35 million tons in Iran have stopped production, while the restart plans of Saudi and Malaysian devices have boosted the import expectation. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load have both decreased, and the textile market has entered the off - season with some terminal industries having the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and the price will mainly move in a range. Radical investors can go short on rallies, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports[9] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month[10] - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 78.09%, a decrease of 0.53% month - on - month and 1.64% year - on - year. The domestic downstream products enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 26, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.03% to 57.52 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 38.06% year - on - year. The PVC fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price will still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[10][11] PP - The mainstream prices of PP raffia in North China, East China, and South China are 7174 yuan/ton, 7176 yuan/ton, and 7298 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton[12] - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene last week was 79.30%, a decrease of 0.54% month - on - month. The domestic polypropylene production was 78.92 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with last week, a growth rate of 0.23%, and an increase of 14.52 tons compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 22.55%. The average start - up rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05%. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises was 58.50 tons, a decrease of 2.26 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.72%. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[12] Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 7354 yuan/ton, 7521 yuan/ton, and 7614 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 22 yuan/ton, 42 yuan/ton, and 23 yuan/ton[14] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points compared with the previous period. The average start - up rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.48% compared with the previous period. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 44.82 tons, a decrease of 5.12 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%, and the inventory trend continued to decline. The current fundamentals of plastics have not improved significantly, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[14] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 82.21%, a decrease of 4.25% month - on - month, and the soda ash production was 71.68 tons, a decrease of 3.69 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.90%. There were device shutdowns for maintenance in Qinghai and Shaanxi, and the production of Inner Mongolia Boyuan was gradually stabilizing. The supply side still has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the summer maintenance situation[15] - Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 176.69 tons, an increase of 4.02 tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 2.33%. The social inventory is showing a downward trend, with the total amount approaching 280,000 tons, a decrease of more than 30,000 tons. The demand side performance is average. The middle and lower reaches replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. The soda ash market has limited new driving forces except for the reduction in supply. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, inventory changes, device maintenance, and unexpected disturbances[15] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1130 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The operating rate of float glass last week was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.26% month - on - month, and the weekly glass production was 109.09 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.24%. The glass production line has changed frequently recently, and the supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production line[16] - Last week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 69.216 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight - boxes month - on - month, a decline of 0.96%, and the inventory has decreased slightly but the amplitude is limited. The demand side is still weak, and there is no positive driving force. The glass market has limited driving forces, and it is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in enterprise inventory, production line changes, and market sentiment[16] Rubber - The spot prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13,950 yuan/ton, 19,550 yuan/ton, 14,600 yuan/ton, and 13,600 yuan/ton respectively. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are 66.09 baht/kg for RSS3, 55.5 baht/kg for latex, 47.95 baht/kg for cup lump, and 61.77 baht/kg for raw rubber[17] - There is an expectation of a缓和 in the trade war, and the Fed has shown some signs of a possible interest rate cut in July. Rubber is in a rebound window with improved sentiment. The domestic whole - latex has started to be harvested, and the production areas in Yunnan have fully started harvesting, while the latex in Hainan has started to increase in volume. The Southeast Asian production areas have fully started harvesting, and the supply is generally loose. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. The start - up rate of downstream tire enterprises has decreased for semi - steel tires and increased slightly for all - steel tires. The market is speculating on macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US tariff collection on automobiles and household appliances may seriously suppress the global demand for rubber. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of the rubber downstream[17] Methanol - The spot price in Zhejiang is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in Xinjiang is 1625 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Anhui is 2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is 2384 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with the previous trading day[18] - The total port inventory has increased to 67.05 tons, an increase of 8.41 tons compared with the previous period. The domestic methanol industry operating rate has reached 91.31%. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the reconstruction work in Iran has started, and the shut - down devices are expected to gradually resume production. However, the problem of natural gas shortage in Iran may continue until winter, and there is still uncertainty in the far - month supply. The start - up rate of MTO devices has dropped to 87.41%, and the start - up rate of MTBE has rebounded to 64.40%. The demand for traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether is still weak. The price of steam coal is stable and slightly strong, but it has limited support for the cost of methanol. The short - term futures price will mainly fluctuate. After the geopolitical conflict eases, attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's supply recovery and the accumulation of domestic inventory[18] Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June supply and demand report lowered the global and US ending inventories, but the overall support of the report is limited. The domestic corn market is in the window period of the alternation of old and new grains, and the remaining grain is being continuously consumed. The decreasing inventory in the main production areas has supported the reluctance of traders to sell. However, affected by the substitution effect of wheat and the news of policy grain auctions, the upward momentum of prices may be weakened. The downstream procurement of corn is cautious, and the consumption is weak. The low breeding profit has led to the on - demand procurement of breeding enterprises, and the low operating rate of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses has limited the boosting effect on downstream demand[19] - The main corn contract is in an upward channel, but it is under pressure from the resistance of the upward channel in the short term and has retraced. Attention should be paid to the support level of 2350 yuan/ton at the lower edge of the channel[20] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions vary. Currently, it is the peanut planting season, and the market expects that the domestic peanut planting area will increase year - on - year in 2025. If the weather is normal during this period, the peanut price in the far - month may be under pressure. In the short term, the peanut market has entered the inventory consumption period, and the import of peanuts has decreased, resulting in a low inventory level in each link of the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the low inventory may push the peanut price up due to the replenishment demand[21] -

文章来源:新浪期货 新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月20日收盘主力合约中证1000指数期货2509,涨跌-0.22%,成交量8.47万手，持仓数据显示前20席 位呈现净空，差额头寸为16021手。 中证1000指数期货期货全合约总计成交21.20万手，比上一日减少1.65万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓21.85万手，比上一日减少 1.20万手。全合约前20席位空头持仓24.89万手，比上一日减少4309手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安，总持仓40109、中信期货，总持仓37508、国投期货，总持仓15901；空头前三席位 为中信期货，总持仓60214、国泰君安，总持仓44293、海通期货，总持仓15775； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：一德期货、持仓3509、增仓873，中信建投、持仓3487、增仓814，华泰期货、持 仓3796、增仓623；多头减仓前二名分别是：海通期货、持仓6851、减仓-102，宝城期货、持仓2803、减仓-14； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：国信期货、持仓5604、增仓1221，中信期货、持仓26936、增仓1133，华闻期货、 持仓2 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月13日收盘主力合约中证1000指数期货2506,涨跌-1.11%,成交量11.99万手，持仓数据显示前20席 位呈现净空，差额头寸为6941手。 中证1000指数期货期货全合约总计成交19.80万手，比上一日新增3.90万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓23.79万手，比上一日增加 1.02万手。全合约前20席位空头持仓26.78万手，比上一日增加9691手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安，总持仓44416、中信期货，总持仓41811、海通期货，总持仓17614；空头前三席位 为中信期货，总持仓60230、国泰君安，总持仓45082、海通期货，总持仓22100； | | | | | 2025年6月13日中证1000指数期货全合约持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 壇減 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 壇減 | | J | 中信期货 | 66,970 | 15.340 | ...

文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年6月4日中证1000指数期货主力合约2506持仓数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 壇減 | 会员 | 特买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | J | 国泰君安 | 31,053 | -5,781 | 中信期货 | 22,373 | -1,389 | 中信期货 | 29,377 | -771 | | 2 | 中信期货 | 29,280 | -4,721 | 国泰君安 | 21.386 | -2,379 | 国泰君安 | 19,274 | -2,638 | | 3 | 海通期货 | 11,822 | -234 | 华泰期货 | 7,071 | -182 | 海通期货 | 9,076 | 275 | | 4 | 东证期货 | 10,142 | -1.844 | 东证期货 | 6,968 | -383 | 东证期货 | 7,485 | -1,475 | | 5 | 中泰期货 | 8,2 ...